Spring Racing

[Substance]

I'll be suprised if IAD doesn't win the derby.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Does the winner of the Lexus (G3) go straight through to the Melb Cup? Or does it just receive a weight penalty?

... and so it does exempt the winner to go straight through to the big one. Sorry for the disturbance fellas.

 

[Ricketts]

Derby Day:

r1
Al Aneed - Boss will give him a good show and I don't think you'll miss on a 1x3 basis.

r2
Gatewood - Appears to be well weighted against this lot, and again I'd be confident on the 1x3 basis.

r3
Zydeco - Ditto above but not as keen at the shorter odds.

r4
Sizzling - Who I thought ran a cracker 1st-up and am hoping he's the strongest at the finish of this.

r6
Honorius E/W - Has been improving each run for this main target, where I think IAD has been doing the opposite.

r7
Streama - Best mare at the set weights race. Although Yosei is definitely one of mine and ran really well last start.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Derby Day:

r1
Al Aneed - Boss will give him a good show and I don't think you'll miss on a 1x3 basis.

r2
Gatewood - Appears to be well weighted against this lot, and again I'd be confident on the 1x3 basis.

r3
Zydeco - Ditto above but not as keen at the shorter odds.

r4
Sizzling - Who I thought ran a cracker 1st-up and am hoping he's the strongest at the finish of this.

r6
Honorius E/W - Has been improving each run for this main target, where I think IAD has been doing the opposite.

r7
Streama - Best mare at the set weights race. Although Yosei is definitely one of mine and ran really well last start.

Yosei record at Flemington is very poor

 

[Gavin Excell]

I can't see Nechita getting beaten, the 1400m was a huge fail she just didn't get the trip but back to 1200m she will show her class. I'm thinking Soft Sand, December Draw & Costa Nova in the other Group 1's. I was pretty keen last start Costa Nova would run a good race at big odds and did give some cheek, but they just went too hard in front and he did a stack of work to get there as well. He did hit the front at about the 300m and gave a bit of a kick but all the work he did caught up with him and he started to fade before nearly being put over the fence at the 100m, the margin was unfair to him in the end. This race can throw up a surprise so I see no harm in backing one at $80+, if he can sit a couple back with a bit of cover one out then you never know.

Concern is that it was set for the Golden Rose 2 months ago and now they are trying to get it up again in a cracker of a race.I'd be a touch wary.

 

[Windy At Moorabbin]

Like the Zydeco Dear Demi Quinella. Can't see any one other than these two fighting out the finish.

Best roughie of the day is Chasm. I remeber him flying fresh down the straight back in the autumn and seems like one of those old timers who would get up at long odds on a day like this. In saying that I'm a big Howmuchdoyouloveme fan.

 

[watsons oval]

Derby Day:

r1
Al Aneed - Boss will give him a good show and I don't think you'll miss on a 1x3 basis.

r2
Gatewood - Appears to be well weighted against this lot, and again I'd be confident on the 1x3 basis.

r3
Zydeco - Ditto above but not as keen at the shorter odds.

r4
Sizzling - Who I thought ran a cracker 1st-up and am hoping he's the strongest at the finish of this.

r6
Honorius E/W - Has been improving each run for this main target, where I think IAD has been doing the opposite.

r7
Streama - Best mare at the set weights race. Although Yosei is definitely one of mine and ran really well last start.

OK

Ok I'll have a go.
R1 Pronto Pronto - wide run last start but stuck on well
R2 Gatewood - best horse in the race
R3 Zydeco hard to beat but Transonic to be there Quinella
R6 Its a Dundeel, been on it since it won 1st up in SYd. Reckon he might smash em.
R7 Rasberries roughie wide last start after good 1st up run
R8 Tiger Tees e/w
R9 Fawkner suited at Flem, hopefully I've got plenty left to have a decent go at him.
Good luck to everyone on the best days racing of the year!!

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

HurlsMeister18

One of your faves in Lady Antebellum running in Race 8 at MV tonight. Looks well suited mate.

Now THAT was impressive. Missed start, against the pattern. Wowsers.

 

[ThePezDispenser]

Now THAT was impressive. Missed start, against the pattern. Wowsers.

Bowman slaughtered me again...

Have Nisos E/W. I think the 81 win and 21 place is fair overs.

 

[Cupper]

Have a crack
1- union gap- will be the one running on late.
2- gatewood- class horse of the race
3- dear Demi- should lob a nice spot and might pinch a break on zydeco
4- nechita- best bet- loved the way it surged clear in the golden rose, off a hot tempo 1400 was a bit too far.
5- December draw- ocean park clearly top pick but can't take $1.50
6-it's a dundeel- faster tempo and bigger track, should win
7- soft sand- surely due for some luck, should be thereabouts.
8- howmuchdoyouloveme- runs to its trial and it bolts in.
9- fawkner- loves flemington and talented horse.

 

[stmookeyj]

QUADDIE (6-9): 1-3-5-9/2-9-10/2-3-7/3-4-6-7

For the earlier races....

R1: 1-4 only winning chances, throw in 8 for Tri's. Early start though in Qld (10:20)
R2: 1-(2-4-8)
R3: 1-5-12, looks an ordinary field if looking towards Thursday.
R4: 9-3-(6-10)
R5: 4-7-3, Short backup may count against Ocean Park

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Now THAT was impressive. Missed start, against the pattern. Wowsers.

Looks like I was right about Florets as well

 

[Frankie23]

1: Pronto Pronto up to the mile is the best value, was in good from prior to luckless run
2: One would think Gatewood easily if it runs up to its rating.
3: Like most Dear Demi vs Zydeco, leaning towards the latter who looks like it wants 2000m
4: Fire Thunderbolt looks the big improver, at 10's I'm happy to go each way on it and risk Nechita (in Melbourne and failed last start) and Snitzerland (gun, but coming to end of prep?)
5: OP
6: In the Honorious camp, I know the David Payne camp are very very confident about its chances, it'll stay the trip just a matter of luck, don't discard IAD and Subiaso
7: Best value for the day here, Pear Tart and Yosei. Pear Tart was held up last start and still hit the line hard, will gain great benefit from that run and I think it can turn the tables on Streama. Yosei's campaign has been luckless, I don't care about the weight/track record, fact is it has tremendous form around some good (male) horses and has been racing without luck.
8: Howmuchdoyouloveme should blitz them here if he runs up to his work on Tuesday morning, he will drift in price, anything around 2.50 and that'll be value IMO.
9: Decent value around the two favourites...if it is favouring the on-pacers watch for McClintock to put a few lengths on them, he will ping out of the barriers and take some chasing. Decent each way bet. Keep Fawkner and Free Wheeling safe.

Good luck on the punt!

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Looks like I was right about Florets as well

 

[uptheblues]

Looking for value tomorrow plenty of good horses in at very nice odds. Reckon the quaddie could pay a packet.
FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Proverb
Race 2: Excluded
Race 3: Dear Demi ** Best Bet
Race 4: Shelford e/w
Race 5: December Draw
Race 6: It's a Dundeel
Race 7: Oasis Bloom * Next Best
Race 8: Golden Archer
Race 9: Free Wheeling

And a couple of shorts for anchors/doubles
ROSEHILL
Race 1: Sessions
Race 3: Bound to Blush

 

[mayhem]

Market movers - Derby day 2012

The early bird punters have been responsible for some significant pushes in pre-post betting on the Saturday's meetings at Flemington .
Here are the market movers.
FLEMINGTON

RACE MOVER​

1 Al Aneed $5 - $4.60 ($10000 @ $4.80), Lunar Rise $6 - $5 ($1425 @ $6),Crystal Web $13 - $11 ($600 @ $13), Union Gap $8 - $5.50 ($800 & $300 @ $8, $1500 e/w @ $7/$2.29).​

2 Gatewood $3.80 - $2.80 ($400 @ $3.80, $2000 @ $3.60, $3000 @ $3.20, $10000 @ $3, $4000 & $1000 [twice] @ $2.80), Tanby ($1000 e/w @ $10/$3), Exceptionally $9 - $7 ($500 & $450 @ $9), Dare To Dream $9 - $6.50 ($350 @ $9, $450 @ $7.50).​

3 Dear Demi ($1000 @ $3.20), Zydeco $2.80 - $3 - $2.70 ($9800 @ $3, $1000 @ $2.80, $1000 @ $2.70), Tyanna $10 - $7 ($300 @ $10, $300 & $200 e/w @ $9/$2.60).​

4 Sizzling $4.60 - $4.80 ($1100 @ $4.60, $2000 & $1000 @ $4.80), Hidden Warrior $26 - $21 ($450 e/w @ $26/$6.26), Fire Thunderbolt $10 - $9 - $9.50 - $9 ($800 @ $10, $700 @ $9, $500 @ $9.50), Nechita $3.80 - $3.40 ($5000 @ $3.80, $1000 @ $3.60).​

5 Alcopop $6 - $5 ($500 @ $6, $1500 @ $5.50), December Draw $8.50 - $8 ($1100 @ $8.50), Ocean Park ($2500 & $2000 @ $1.55).​

6 (Since Final Field) It’s A Dundeel $2.70 - $2.80 - $2.75 ($1000 [twice] @ $2.70, $4500, $1500 & $1000 [twice ] @ $2.80), Honorius ($6000 & $1000 @ $7.50), Super Cool $8 - $6.50 ($1000 e/w @ $8/$2.55, $8000 & $1000 @ $7.50, $2000 @ $7), Hvasstan ($1000 @ $7).​

7 Streama $3.60 - $3 ($800 & $500 @ $3.60 along with plenty of $200 & $100 bets, $2000 @ $3.40, $2600 e/w @ $3.20/$1.51, $1000 @ $3.20, $5000 e/w @ $3.10/$1.49, $1000 @ $3.10), Pear Tart $8 - $7 ($400 e/w @ $8/$2.55, $700 @ $8, $400 x $1000 @ $7/$2.41), Soft Sand ($1200 & $500 e/w @ $8.50/$2.76, $300 @ $8.50).​

8 Tiger Tees $11 - $9 ($1000, $500 & $400 @ $11, $500 @ $10),Pampelonne $8 - $7.50 ($800 & $600 @ $8, $600 e/w @ $8/$2.33, $500 e/w [twice] @ $7.50/$2.33), Howmuchdoyouloveme $1.85 - $2 - $1.95 ($2500 @ $1.95), Miss Marx $13 - $9 ($800 @ $13, $900 @ $11), Chasm$51 - $31 ($200 e/w @ $51/$10.09), Fontelina $26 - $21 ($400 @ $26).​

9 Bold Glance $16 - $13 ($500 e/w @ $16/$4.15), Fawkner ($2400, $1270 & $1000 @ $3.10), Free Wheeling $3.70 - $3.50 - $3.60 ($700 @ $3.70, $3800 @ $3.60).​

​

 

[Keystone agony]

R1 - Crystal web place (Really like Pronto Pronto aswell place)
R2 - Gatewood (I also think Tanby holds very good value)
R3 - Zydeco (purely based on how other rate it, ill follow them)
R5 - OP (cant be beat but hardly worth backing, alcopop the only one)
R6 - Super Cool (not gonna look to far past its last race potentially good odds at 8-1 for win) E/W
R7 - Pear Tart E/W (hard to see anything beating treama but i think Pear tart is the one)
R8 - Golden Archer (Nolen, Moody combo at good odds can win)

Dont follow, starting to like Pronto more than CW in first

 

[BeerPuntFooty]

I'll have a crack, don't follow, I'm a mug..

R1 - Al Aneed - lots of chances
R2 - going to box 1,6,12 for the exotics
R3 - Zydeco over Demi - exacta
R4 - Sizzling over 3,9,11
R5 - OP over3,4,5
R6 - Honorius - maybe straight out, depend on how I'm going
R7 - Streama
R8 - Howmuchdo
R9 - will work around 4,5 if I've got any money left, lol.

Good luck all

 

[Gavin Excell]

Race 1: Al Aneed (and smokey chance to Steep)
Race 2: Excpetionally
Race 3: Demi
Race 4: Sizzling with saver on Shelford
Race 5: OP
Race 6: Honorious
Race 7: Streama
Race 8: Spirt of Boom (fluke bet Bolton)
Race 9: Instinction

 

[Chism]

I am having a crack at "Full Of Spirit" today in the 7th Race at HQ.

It will be at odds greater than 20-1 and is worth an E/W ticket in an open race.

A slow start meant she was back early in the Grp 3 Moonga Stks 1400m at Caulfield on Oct 20 - and that was the end of any realistic chance she had of being competitive. She finished 10th/11, btn 5 lens. Two starts back she ran 6th/16 in the Grp 2 Blazer 1410m at Flemington, beaten only 2 lens by Mosheen, and before that she was an Open hdcp winner at Ellerslie 1400m on Sep 8 when first-up since running 4th/8 in the Grp 1 ATC Oaks 2400m at Randwick.

Will love the distance of todays 1600m race but the barrier is a bit of a concern.

There are a host of dangers and you can virtually make a case for every horse in it!



I also like Electric Fusion in the Derby and i cannot ignore it's last run when narrowly beaten by Hvasstan in the Norman Robinson. Will be in the money again i think giving a great sight.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

R1 Al Aneed
R2 Excluded
R3 Zydeco
R4 Nechita
R6 Hvasstan
R7 Oasis Bloom
R8 Golden Archer
R9 Fawkner

 

[The Prosecutor]

R1 Lunar Rise
R2 Gatewood
R3 Dear Demi
R4 Nechita
R5 Ocean Park
R6 It's A Dundeel
R7 Pear Tart
R8 Howmuchdoyoulove
R9 Fawkner

 

[sacka]

I also like Electric Fusion in the Derby and i cannot ignore it's last run when narrowly beaten by Hvasstan in the Norman Robinson. Will be in the money again i think giving a great sight.

If EF didn't need the whole track in that run you would be saying the same thing about Subiaso.

 

[sethlad]

I am having a crack at "Full Of Spirit" today in the 7th Race at HQ.

Agree here,doesnt look well suited at these conditions but trainer is a gun & they always run well
when he sets them for Flemington

seth

 

[mayhem]

Good luck all.