St Kilda's Seniors.

[Defacto]

There's a big difference so far between this year and last year in that Brown is getting regular games and has been playing very well. From what I read, gametime was his main concern (though obviously most/none of us on here really know). Regardless, I doubt he will go to the Saints for free, especially if he keeps up with his current form. Other clubs will jump in and make offers and I doubt Brown has some special affinity for the Saints.

theres reasons why we'll be more attractive to other clubs and it starts with the coaching panel that brown has a connection with

 

[TommyJay]

Have heard that St.KIlda are chasing one of Gold Coast young gun midfielders and Dal Santos name has been put up to go the other way.

This surprises me a lot...I'd be staggered if we traded Dal Santo. Any particular young gun that we're supposed to be into?

 

[Jcpdragonx]

id be very upset if i was a saints supporter and dal santo left for pick 25.

 

[HBFlanker]

This surprises me a lot...I'd be staggered if we traded Dal Santo. Any particular young gun that we're supposed to be into?

Prestia was the name i heard, Melbourne boy. Not sure if he is exactly what you need as armitage and steven are hard nuts.

 

[blaze036]

If the saints don't get any good mid aged players soon they are going to be in a far worse position than GC/GWS. bunch of young kids with less talent and some okay mid aged players like geary

 

[saintsrfreak]

Prestia was the name i heard, Melbourne boy. Not sure if he is exactly what you need as armitage and steven are hard nuts.

I think he's exactly what we need. Hayes and Montagna aren't getting any younger.

 

[The Finger]

I think he's exactly what we need. Hayes and Montagna aren't getting any younger.

If they added Prestia thats a very good young mid field group added to two first choice young rucks.

 

[aussierulesrules]

id be very upset if i was a saints supporter and dal santo left for pick 25.

I doubt enormously that we would trade Dal for a pick like 25.

What did Port get for S Burgoyne, who I think had a bung knee or two? Pick 9 and Mark Williams (who 12 months earlier had kicked 3 goals for Hawthorn in their premiership win and 5 goals 4 behinds in the prelim), according to Wikipedia. Not saying we'd get that much, but I don't see a pick around the 13-16 mark being too much to ask or expect for someone who could have 3 or 4 more good years ahead of him and who could make the difference between another team getting close to a premiership or two in that time and winning one or two of them.

At pick 14 last year for instance all of the following were available: Aiden Corr, Taylor Garner, Josh Simpson, Brodie Grundy, Ben Kennedy, Nathan Hrovat, Nathan Wright and Spencer White and I think you could make a strong argument that 10-12 years worth of someone like any of them could easily be more beneficial to a club like us than 3-4 more years from Dal, so it could be a win/win/win for all concerned if a trade like that were done, if things continue on the way they are.

 

[Defacto]

Prestia was the name i heard, Melbourne boy. Not sure if he is exactly what you need as armitage and steven are hard nuts.

given we had to part with pick 13 for hickey. i doubt we'll do a straight swap like that. i know we are into GWS/GC in a big way to lure talent away, but i think dal's name is being thrown around too easily

 

[loki04]

Wouldn't mind Reiwoldt for his last 3 years to be a foil for Cloke.

Be one hard to stop fwd line and he'd win a flag with his mate Bally.

 

[saintsrfreak]

Wouldn't mind Reiwoldt for his last 3 years to be a foil for Cloke.

Be one hard to stop fwd line and he'd win a flag with his mate Bally.

 

[loki04]

Haha I know mate don't have to tell me, would make sense for him too though as saints wont win one while he is playing.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

You didnt watch the game on friday?
People serious doubt our kids. Armo, Steven, McEvoy are all very, very good players and mix that in with the talent of Siposs, Saad, Newnes, Hickey, Roberton, Stanley, Lee, Simpkin, Saunders, Wright, Murdoch, Ross, and things arent looking as bad..

only mcevoy is anything decent at the moment, alot of the players you just named are quite average... armitage is 24 this year so im not even sure why your calling him young, and you tossed a lot of unknowns in there which every AFL club has

just see the reality of what Ross lyon left st kilda in, years of drafting no good talent or bringing any quality kids in has left the club in a position of having to rebuild for a good 5 years at least down the bottom, things will definitely get a lot worse before they get better when the likes of hayes riewoldt kozi gwilt dal santo begin to exit in the next couple

i guess ross lyon had to do what he did to try and snatch a flag, but it has had its long term affects which you are starting to see

 

[Half Back Pocket]

just see the reality of what Ross lyon left st kilda in, years of drafting no good talent or bringing any quality kids in has left the club in a position of having to rebuild for a good 5 years at least down the bottom, things will definitely get a lot worse before they get better when the likes of hayes riewoldt kozi gwilt dal santo begin to exit in the next couple

26 years old? (Dal has just turned 29)

 

[geelong_crazy26]

26 years old? (Dal has just turned 29)

Dan Santo turned 29 years old in febuary, by the time 2014 starts, he will be 30 years old.. nobody will give you a first round pick for him, you might be lucky that one or two clubs will feel desperate enough to snatch a premiership with a fast closing window, might hand u a very low first rounder like 14-18 for him, but that will only be a club like hawthorn or possibly sydney, otherwise it will be a second rounder

your club has left it too late to offload its seniors for high draft picks, if your really desperate for some early picks via trades, then you would possibly have to consider giving up either gwilt or armitage, these two may be able to get you a late first rounder if a particular club really rates them

you wont be getting much thought for anyone around the 30 mark

 

[paul scholes]

Agree entirely. He got off the leash with Carazzo and Ellard injured.

 

[TommyJay]

Dan Santo turned 29 years old in febuary, by the time 2014 starts, he will be 30 years old.. nobody will give you a first round pick for him, you might be lucky that one or two clubs will feel desperate enough to snatch a premiership with a fast closing window, might hand u a very low first rounder like 14-18 for him, but that will only be a club like hawthorn or possibly sydney, otherwise it will be a second rounder

your club has left it too late to offload its seniors for high draft picks, if your really desperate for some early picks via trades, then you would possibly have to consider giving up either gwilt or armitage, these two may be able to get you a late first rounder if a particular club really rates them

you wont be getting much thought for anyone around the 30 mark

Left it too late? I think that the club doesn't want to shoot itself in the foot by trading out experienced players, especially not Dal. I seriously, seriously doubt that we'll be trading out any of Dal, Montagna, Riewoldt, Hayes etc. The list management staff seem to back themselves with who they're picking up and seem to have a clear direction for the first time in years, but if you've got no-one to show the young kids the way, the young kids will flounder (see Melboure). I think there's more value in that , (and showing loyalty to players who have been the heart and soul of the club for years) than there is in getting a draft pick, which is always speculative, even if it's a high one (again, see Melbourne).

In terms of Dal, I think he'll be playing for us for quite a few years to come. He's never really been injured, doesn't rely on speed or athleticism which will be lost over time, but rather his silky skills. Seems very unlikely his body will fail him any time soon, I can honestly see him playing for 5+ more years. Very realistic chance he'll be around for our next flag tilt.

In terms of your reference to Gwilt or Armitage, I'd agree there. I can't see us trading Armitage, because we're very clearly trying to build a long term midfield around Steven and Armitage, and when Lenny leaves we'll be needing more in an under midfielders, not less. Can possibly see us trading someone like Gwilt though, we have plenty of players who are in a similar mould (Dempster, Roberton, Fisher, Gilbert). Furthermore, apparently when GWS offered us a top three draft pick for Fisher (who falls in that same category of player) we were willing to take it, however Fisher himself said he didn't want to leave.

 

[Silvagnis]

Agree entirely. He got off the leash with Carazzo and Ellard injured.

Better news for Saints was Gibbs and Yarran not running around when the game got tight. Our best kicks by a street when we struggled to hit targets.

I doubt enormously that we would trade Dal for a pick like 25.

What did Port get for S Burgoyne, who I think had a bung knee or two? Pick 9 and Mark Williams (who 12 months earlier had kicked 3 goals for Hawthorn in their premiership win and 5 goals 4 behinds in the prelim), according to Wikipedia. Not saying we'd get that much, but I don't see a pick around the 13-16 mark being too much to ask or expect for someone who could have 3 or 4 more good years ahead of him and who could make the difference between another team getting close to a premiership or two in that time and winning one or two of them.

At pick 14 last year for instance all of the following were available: Aiden Corr, Taylor Garner, Josh Simpson, Brodie Grundy, Ben Kennedy, Nathan Hrovat, Nathan Wright and Spencer White and I think you could make a strong argument that 10-12 years worth of someone like any of them could easily be more beneficial to a club like us than 3-4 more years from Dal, so it could be a win/win/win for all concerned if a trade like that were done, if things continue on the way they are.

Won't happen. Clubs have learnt from the price paid for Mclean, Fevola and Lovett in the one trade period.

Especially if we do land someone like Brown, or Frawley, to go with Rhys Stanley (who has been excellent so far this year on the tall athletic types like Sam Reid and Jeremy Cameron), we will then have a heap of "3rd-tall defender types" in Gwilt, Gilbert (when he's playing down back), Roberton, Dempster, Simpkin and of course Fisher (who is the one we're hoping to free up again by getting someone to play on the "gorillas"), so there would have to be a strong chance that we would be willing to trade at least one of those that won't be playing key position down there, as we apparently were going to last year if we had landed Brown.

B: Gwilt/Roberton/Simpkin, Brown, Geary/Wright
HB: Dempster/Roberton/Gilbert, Stanley, Fisher

There are simply too many there who are good enough to be playing senior AFL and too good to be playing VFL for us to not be willing to trade at least one of them, as most of them are only suited to playing in the backline and there are only 6 spots up for grabs there. That list doesn't even take into account the likes of Newnes, Siposs, Murdoch and Dunell, who can also play down back without any trouble.

What have these players done to be rated so highly as shut down defenders?

Every club can reel off potential players on paper. You're really jumping the gun with your rating of these players and Spencer White.

Stanley gave a ruck in Hampson more gettable chances than he's had in a month.

I wouldn't write off Carlton or Hawthorn looking for a ready made defender such as Mitch Brown. We clearly need another mature defender who can cover for Jamison. Schoenmakers will be coming back from a knee reco, so the Hawks might look at him too.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Left it too late? I think that the club doesn't want to shoot itself in the foot by trading out experienced players, especially not Dal. I seriously, seriously doubt that we'll be trading out any of Dal, Montagna, Riewoldt, Hayes etc. The list management staff seem to back themselves with who they're picking up and seem to have a clear direction for the first time in years, but if you've got no-one to show the young kids the way, the young kids will flounder (see Melboure). I think there's more value in that , (and showing loyalty to players who have been the heart and soul of the club for years) than there is in getting a draft pick, which is always speculative, even if it's a high one (again, see Melbourne).

In terms of Dal, I think he'll be playing for us for quite a few years to come. He's never really been injured, doesn't rely on speed or athleticism which will be lost over time, but rather his silky skills. Seems very unlikely his body will fail him any time soon, I can honestly see him playing for 5+ more years. Very realistic chance he'll be around for our next flag tilt.

In terms of your reference to Gwilt or Armitage, I'd agree there. I can't see us trading Armitage, because we're very clearly trying to build a long term midfield around Steven and Armitage, and when Lenny leaves we'll be needing more in an under midfielders, not less. Can possibly see us trading someone like Gwilt though, we have plenty of players who are in a similar mould (Dempster, Roberton, Fisher, Gilbert). Furthermore, apparently when GWS offered us a top three draft pick for Fisher (who falls in that same category of player) we were willing to take it, however Fisher himself said he didn't want to leave.

referencing melbourne doesnt really build any case against draft picks, unless your point is theres always going to be exceptions to top picks becoming quality players, melbourne are just one of those every 20-30 year baggage case stories that will always happen once every generation or so, just like there will be generational players and exceptional teams, there will always be a melbourne fc or fitzroy around as well

if you have competent people sitting behind your desks, than you should feel confident of top draft picks becoming quality players, even getting them in the door was at the expense of an older guy around 26-27 may be worth it

is st kilda heading forwards or backwards atm thought? from looking at their list and performers i would say it still is going backwards at the moment, when you have played well this year, its still been largely due to riewoldt and co doing the job, this group of 30-31 year olds are going to either exit or decline substantially over the next year or so

i think its most likely that you could spend a year or so down in the bottom four, then hopefully with quality leadership and the right staff in place, rise back up the ladder

i know that doesnt sound the most prosperous next couple of years, but its probably the reality

 

[TommyJay]

referencing melbourne doesnt really build any case against draft picks, unless your point is theres always going to be exceptions to top picks becoming quality players, melbourne are just one of those every 20-30 year baggage case stories that will always happen once every generation or so, just like there will be generational players and exceptional teams, there will always be a melbourne fc or fitzroy around as well

if you have competent people sitting behind your desks, than you should feel confident of top draft picks becoming quality players, even getting them in the door was at the expense of an older guy around 26-27 may be worth it

is st kilda heading forwards or backwards atm thought? from looking at their list and performers i would say it still is going backwards at the moment, when you have played well this year, its still been largely due to riewoldt and co doing the job, this group of 30-31 year olds are going to either exit or decline substantially over the next year or so

i think its most likely that you could spend a year or so down in the bottom four, then hopefully with quality leadership and the right staff in place, rise back up the ladder

i know that doesnt sound the most prosperous next couple of years, but its probably the reality

My point in referencing Melbourne was indeed simply that there are exceptions to high draft picks becoming quality players.

I do have relative confidence in our high draft picks becoming players, but I still think the intangibles of the Saints simply trading away a club icon for a prospect (unless they want to go) has more going against it than it does for it. You lose valuable leadership and direction, for one thing. Your kids won't have these players to set the benchmark of what they have to work towards (that is the other reason I was referencing Melbourne, they don't have many of those players). Secondly, showing disloyalty to players like that will leave other players in the future disillusioned. You don't want to create a culture that shows kids coming through that no matter how much of their heart and soul they put into the club, the club will throw them out for a prospect in the future. Will not make for particularly loyal players.

I think if you have been watching the Saints over the last few weeks, that we are at the bottom of where we're at now. Next year I think will be similar/slight improvement, but I will be stunned if we get worse. We've been sliding for a while with the lack of quality youth coming through, but we now have at least the bare bones of enough kids who are showing something to start heading in the right direction. Furthermore, if you really look at our best players so far this year they haven't been (with the exception of Riewoldt) our older players, so I entirely disagree with your assessment of 'Riewoldt and co getting the job done'. We've come close to teams like Sydney and Collingwood with our best players being among the likes of Steven, McEvoy, Armitage and Roberton. I would certainly agree with your assessment that we're heading downhill if our best players every single week were Lenny, Montagna, Fisher etc, but that isn't the case in the more. Add to that the fact that we finally have a few promising kids coming through (guys like Wright have taken to AFL level like a duck to water), I'd say we've hit the bottom and we'll slowly be coming back up.

Would agree with your final assessment, I see us finishing somewhere between 14-15 this year, and maybe a touch higher next year before we start to push for finals again. To me, that just indicates that we've hit the low point of Lyon era recruiting and finally have enough talent coming through that can begin to lift us back up. I'm actually quite comfortable with where we are at the moment, I have a lot of confidence that Pelchen and co have a clear direction for how they want to shape the list (and he has proven success with his list management if you look at the Port and Hawthorn premierships) and Watters is exactly the right coach for where we are right now. Will he lead us to our next flag? Potentially not. Is he the right man to get the best development possible out of the next generation? Absolutely. Part of that, however, doesn't include a 'high draft picks at all costs' approach that can hinder your progress as much as it can help it.

 

[paul scholes]

Take your point but personally think Stkilda will slide further next season.
The problem is the senior group drop away and that young group have to pick up the slack.
Very difficult proposition when you have no middle tier.
Geelong are a different proposition by implementing young players into a deep professional group with outstanding leadership. Proof is that the cats haven't had any input from their experienced Free agents, yet they have such quality in the side it hasn't hurt them.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Won't happen. Clubs have learnt from the price paid for Mclean, Fevola and Lovett in the one trade period.

If you say so.

I would strongly consider giving up a pick in the mid teens for Dal Santo if I was a club looking like being right in the premiership mix over the next couple of years and needed someone with his elite skills, decision making, extensive finals/GF experience and poise, just to top them off.

One example might be Collingwood, if Thomas happens to leave for a big offer from somewhere else. If that then leaves Collingwood with say picks 13 and 14, I could see them prepared to trade 14 for Dal, given that they already have a number of good "kids" and look like getting Moore very cheaply next year. Basically a straight swap with Thomas. Not ideal, with Dal that bit older, but I think they could live with it, especially if Daisy's ankle doesn't improve.

Essendon another club that may be very, very interested. Watson, Goddard, Stanton, Heppell, Zaharkis, Dal Santo, etc looks like a very nice midfield to me, especially when combined with their strong ruck division and outstanding "KPP" stocks.

As someone else said, Dal has hardly missed a game through injury in his whole career and doesn't get by with speed, so he could just keep on cruising around for another 3-4 more years without it being any great surprise.

He won't be the age Lenny Hayes and Milne are this year for 4 more years, for instance. He came 2nd in the Brownlow just two seasons ago when were still a reasonably strong team and I could definitely see him getting back into really good form again over the next couple of years, if he was at a really strong team, particularly if it was a team where someone else was getting the no.1 tag. We saw how well he went early the other night on Judd, before they put a tag on him because he was going so well.

Just because someone reaches 30yo doesn't necessarily mean they are going to go downhill immediately. Lenny Hayes has won two B&F's and come top 10 in the Brownlow after the age of 30, Milne has made his first two AA teams at the ages of 31 and 32 and I'm sure you've noticed how Riewoldt is going this year, at the age of 30. These are just a few examples from my club alone in the past 4 years, so I wouldn't go assuming that Dal is going to suddenly become incapable of playing very high quality footy, just because he reaches some arbitrary age. But that's just me.

You obviously have a crystal ball though to say with such certainty that it won't happen, so I guess we'll just see. I'm not saying it will, or won't happen, because I'm all out of crystal balls at the moment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it did, is all I'm saying. If he lifts his game for the rest of the year I probably wouldn't want it to happen, anyway, at least not for just a pick that we were going to use in the draft. If it was for a pick that we were then going to on-trade to a team like like Melbourne, for Frawley, for instance, with someone else thrown in on our end, then I would be a lot more open to it though.

What have these players done to be rated so highly as shut down defenders?

For starters, who mentioned the term "shut-down"?

Secondly, all those five you had in bold there except for Simpkin (who played almost every game for us last year and was generally very good, but seems to have a case of the "2nd year blues" this year, on top of the lack of spots keeping him out, especially with Roberton doing so well) is currently a fixture in our starting 22, with all also being 25yo or younger and hence likely to improve, so when you add them to the likes of Fisher, Gwilt, Gilbert, Dempster, you will probably realise that we will have too many for the 5 spots left, IF we have gotten someone like a Brown or Frawley at the end of the year.

If the younger ones are in the team already and holding their own and improving, as they are, then it is likely that we are going to want to keep them in the team next year as well, rather than have them pushed back to the VFL, where their development may stall, so we may consider trading one of the more experienced group out, for that reason, amongst other reasons.

If it was all about today for us then we wouldn't do anything like that, but we are also looking to the future and as such may do a trade that will benefit us more down the track than in the short term, or that will strengthen another area of the ground where we don't have as many strong options. Just as I think your club ought to do with your collection of "rucks" and "forward/rucks" (Kruezer, Hampson, Warnock, Rowe, Casboult and maybe Mitchell, who is the same sort of height). In both cases, it's just too much for the one position/area, IMO.

Finally, since you asked, Simpkin did numerous good "shut-down" jobs last year, including on the much bigger Jarryd Roughead and Patty Ryder, off the top of my head, Jarryn Geary came 6th in our B&F last year playing down back and of course in the last two weeks has done terrific tagging jobs in the midfield on Sidebottom (who he kept to 10 touches) and then Murphy (17 touches). Wright has been doing terrific jobs down back since he came into the team, including on Andrew Krakouer last week and he was also good on Betts and/or Garlett when he was on them on Monday and we've been so happy with how he's been going back there that it freed up Geary to move into the midfield and Rhys Stanley is clearly just learning the caper, but has done terrific jobs on Sam Reid, Jeremy Cameron and Johnno Patton, as well as being good in couple of our other games back there. The likes of Barry Hall and Paul Roos amongst others have also been lauding some of his play back there in the early rounds of this season and believe he is well worth sticking with back there. I don't think many are suggesting that he's suited to the likes of Travis Cloke though, and that is why we are so keen to get someone who is better suited to playing on the big, strong, 105kg+ "gorillas".

I'm not suggesting for a second that that group, or Roberton (who has been a bit of a revelation for us this year) are currently as good as the likes of Fisher, Gwilt, Gilbert or Dempster, but they are at the very least holding their own in the seniors and all improving. Just as Fisher (who didn't debut until he was 22), Gwilt (who didn't cement his spot till he was about 24) and Dempster (who didn't debut until he was 21) were at those sort of ages. So it would be a shame to have to send any/many of them back to the VFL next year, for as long as the next couple of years, because there aren't enough spots, when they are already doing a good enough job in the seniors this year and are likely to improve further with more games in the AFL.

Every club can reel off potential players on paper. You're really jumping the gun with your rating of these players and Spencer White.

That is your opinion and you are entitled to it, just as I am of mine, I would have thought.

I'm sure there were many who would have said the same when I was similarly excited by a young Adam Goodes, for instance, after I saw him play for the first time in the U18's GF in 1997 and was hoping like hell that we would draft him with our first pick and would probably have taken him with a top 5 pick if I had to, off just that one game. Yet every club went on to overlook him in that draft and he ended up going at 43, which left me stunned and incredibly disappointed. I'm quite happy with how I jumped the gun on that one, in hindsight.

Then there was the time I was literally laughed at when I walked into the TAB in Oakleigh when I was 18, in 1997 and plonked $500 (at a time I didn't have a job) down on the register for St Kilda to make the 8 that year (after we hadn't played finals since 1992) and was told by whoever took my money that I "had just thrown away $500", only for us to go on to finish the H&A rounds on top of the ladder and go on to make the GF.

So maybe this will be another one that I get right like those ones and numerous others, or maybe it won't, like likewise plenty of others. Again, I don't have a crystal ball to say for sure, but usually when someone has me this excited and confident they go on to have a good or very good (or even better) career, all things being equal.

The level of excitement that Spencer has created in a short time at St Kilda (particularly from those that regularly/consistently watch the VFL games and are able to compare him to others who have come through the club in recent years) is something that we probably haven't seen from someone that young at the club in a very long time.

196cm, with elite speed for his height (enabling him to lead strongly from the goalsquare, or to run back towards goal when he gets up the ground), a real confidence to use it (I'd rather someone have the confidence to back themselves, than to have to coax it out of them, as we have with Stanley), a huge leap and also very strong hands overhead, meaning plenty of overhead marks and a habit of kicking goals. What's not to like, especially when he's hit the ground running for us?

What I do know for sure is that in my experience, if someone comes to our club and starts doing really well from pretty much the get-go and has the sort of attributes required, they usually tend to go on and have a very good career with us, with most of the exceptions being those that had their careers derailed by serious injury, so I have every reason to be very confident of White, in particular, if he stays fit.

I was one of very few on our board who said that they would be happy with us taking him with one of our mid 20's picks last year, prior to the draft, yet even I was expecting very little from him anywhere this year, especially when he had such an interrupted preseason and wasn't able to bulk up much, if at all, so the fact that he's hit the ground running and done some seriously impressive things at senior level in the VFL already (including having 8 shots for goal in his last game, while Kosi is only managing to have a few, despite his size and experience) just has me even more confident that he has a very good chance/likelihood to make it in a pretty big way, all things being equal.

I wouldn't write off Carlton or Hawthorn looking for a ready made defender such as Mitch Brown. We clearly need another mature defender who can cover for Jamison. Schoenmakers will be coming back from a knee reco, so the Hawks might look at him too.

I wouldn't either. Nor would I write off him staying at West Coast, hence the second word in that post being "IF", which is a word I tend to use to suggest a hypothetical situation, for the sake of discussion. Anything can happen, that's what makes life so exciting!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

My point in referencing Melbourne was indeed simply that there are exceptions to high draft picks becoming quality players.

I do have relative confidence in our high draft picks becoming players, but I still think the intangibles of the Saints simply trading away a club icon for a prospect (unless they want to go) has more going against it than it does for it. You lose valuable leadership and direction, for one thing. Your kids won't have these players to set the benchmark of what they have to work towards (that is the other reason I was referencing Melbourne, they don't have many of those players). Secondly, showing disloyalty to players like that will leave other players in the future disillusioned. You don't want to create a culture that shows kids coming through that no matter how much of their heart and soul they put into the club, the club will throw them out for a prospect in the future. Will not make for particularly loyal players.

I think if you have been watching the Saints over the last few weeks, that we are at the bottom of where we're at now. Next year I think will be similar/slight improvement, but I will be stunned if we get worse. We've been sliding for a while with the lack of quality youth coming through, but we now have at least the bare bones of enough kids who are showing something to start heading in the right direction. Furthermore, if you really look at our best players so far this year they haven't been (with the exception of Riewoldt) our older players, so I entirely disagree with your assessment of 'Riewoldt and co getting the job done'. We've come close to teams like Sydney and Collingwood with our best players being among the likes of Steven, McEvoy, Armitage and Roberton. I would certainly agree with your assessment that we're heading downhill if our best players every single week were Lenny, Montagna, Fisher etc, but that isn't the case in the more. Add to that the fact that we finally have a few promising kids coming through (guys like Wright have taken to AFL level like a duck to water), I'd say we've hit the bottom and we'll slowly be coming back up.

Would agree with your final assessment, I see us finishing somewhere between 14-15 this year, and maybe a touch higher next year before we start to push for finals again. To me, that just indicates that we've hit the low point of Lyon era recruiting and finally have enough talent coming through that can begin to lift us back up. I'm actually quite comfortable with where we are at the moment, I have a lot of confidence that Pelchen and co have a clear direction for how they want to shape the list (and he has proven success with his list management if you look at the Port and Hawthorn premierships) and Watters is exactly the right coach for where we are right now. Will he lead us to our next flag? Potentially not. Is he the right man to get the best development possible out of the next generation? Absolutely. Part of that, however, doesn't include a 'high draft picks at all costs' approach that can hinder your progress as much as it can help it.

armitage is entering the start of his peak as he turns 25 years old, he definitely shouldnt be reffered to as young anymore as he is a mature aged player, he only averages 20 and a half disposals per game which is just average for a full time midfielder, dylan roberton is doing ok but also isnt that young as he is 22 this season, also jack steven i agree has been very good this season, but once again his 23 and is coming into the peak of his career, id say generally 24-28 is the peak for midfielders and he is right on the verge of it.

looking at hayes and motagna they are still averaging 26 and 27 possesions a game for you this year, as well as riewoldt in close to career best form, losing these three over the next year or so will definitely leave a hole im wondering ig st kilda can climb up the ladder in the face of

 

[aussierulesrules]

armitage is entering the start of his peak as he turns 25 years old, he definitely shouldnt be reffered to as young anymore as he is a mature aged player, he only averages 20 and a half disposals per game which is just average for a full time midfielder, dylan roberton is doing ok but also isnt that young as he is 22 this season, also jack steven i agree has been very good this season, but once again his 23 and is coming into the peak of his career, id say generally 24-28 is the peak for midfielders and he is right on the verge of it.

looking at hayes and motagna they are still averaging 26 and 27 possesions a game for you this year, as well as riewoldt in close to career best form, losing these three over the next year or so will definitely leave a hole im wondering ig st kilda can climb up the ladder in the face of

Armitage is indeed in that mid 20's age now, but he's certainly a bit of a "late bloomer" after not really believing in himself in his first few years at the club, or being dedicated enough, or getting as many chances (or the ideal development) as we would have liked when Ross Lyon was here (nor did Rhys Stanley, I don't think, or Steven, or Tom Lynch, for that matter) and Jack Steven may be 23 this year, but he apparently had a lot of groin problems in his first few years at the club (probably OP) and as such has only played about 58 games (as much as 50-60 games less than some others in his draft class), so he is also late to the party and looking to make up for lost time. Armo does need to get more of the ball though, as Steven is now and as he was in the first few rounds of the season.

Lenny is averaging just under 25 and Montagna is averaging just a touch over 25 per game this year and of those 3 you mentioned (with Riewoldt), I think unless something unexpected happens, Lenny is the only one that is expected or likely to retire in the next 12-18 months.

Roo signed on till the end of 2014 in December and said that he is hoping to play on for longer than that (he'll be 32yo for the 2015 season, the same age Goodes, Hayes and Milne were last year) and Montagna has been very durable throughout his career and is "only" 29, so he won't be the age Lenny and Milne are this year until 2017, same with Dal Santo and Dempster.

So a lot of it is going to depend on how much longer the likes of them are able to play at a high level and how quickly we are able to bring the younger ones on the list through, to take over the baton from them, plus how many we are able to add through free agancy and trading that are ready to go immediately in the next couple of years, who could potentially help us to offset any important retirements almost immediately, plus how well we draft in the meantime.

That's what makes it all so unpredictable.

The fact that we've been so competitive in the last 3 weeks since we decided it was time to start really "playing the kids" augurs well for our future though.

3 weeks ago we pushed Sydney all the way to the end (despite the fact we were playing on a very small ground in slippery conditions that suited them down to the ground) with 5 in our team who had played 2 AFL games or less and then we also pushed Collingwood pretty much all the way the following week, despite apparently having 9 in our team who had 112 games between them and it was a reasonably similar story against Carlton on the weekend, winning with plenty of young ones in the team (including another in his 1st game) and without Hayes, Gilbert, Schneider, Maister, Kosi and Jones, who would probably all be playing if they were fit and we were "playing for our life".

We may indeed drop down further, or we may have stabilised (we got off to a similar start to 2011, winning just 1.5 of our first 8 games, but then finished the H&A season in 6th, so anything can happen), but we'll find out soon enough. Either way, I really believe we're going about things pretty much the way we need to, after our list was in such a mess at the end of the 2011 season.

 

[loki04]

No club will give up a top 15 pick for a 30 year old who is not a dominant player or kpp.