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The 2010 Draft "Late Mail" thread.

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In this draft, with their position at 8, and with their need for a midfielder, and with GC just before them and with 3 picks straight after them....Essendon are just about the only club with a motive to play ducks and drakes in the media leading up to the draft.

So far, insiders have them set to go with Atley, Caddy, Conca, Prestia.

Take all with a grain of salt.

One will be right but.......
 

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Postman_Pav said:
Gaff as super endurance for his age. Whose to say that wont project out when he's at a club?

And you dont think he's a ball magnet?
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I'm not saying either of those things.

What I'm saying is that when a player is going to succeed through his excellent footskills, or through his electric pace, or through his standout agility for a player of his size, they generally possess those traits before being drafted.

For example, Brendon Goddard's kicking was a standout trait and that was part of him becoming the #1 pick. St Kilda weren't depending on him developing that into an elite skill after being drafted.

Likewise, Lance Franklin moves the way he does at his size, and did so before he was drafted. He was basically an impossible match up from the time he came into the league.
ThePuppetMaster said:
Gaff has the elite attributes of a Cousins and Swan, elite fitness, very clean great readers of the game....

the fact that they are powerful builds means nothing in relation to Gaff as he is a skinny 18 year old prospect!!! He has a good frame to work with, i see him as having the potential to give very similar output on a game to what a Cousins may have had
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I'm not saying that he can't develop into a player that good - What I'm saying is that with Gaff, if he is to succeed, he needs to develop strong areas into elite areas if he is to succeed.

At the moment, when he walks into the AFL, he's not going to have elite play reading, elite endurance and workrate and elite strength by AFL standards. He's going to have to hone those areas. That's not to say he can't, but just that it's work yet to be done at the time of drafting.

It would be idiotic to suggest that he can't develop those skills, considering that Swan possessed none of them except the ability to read the play (thought it wasn't where it is now) when he was drafted at pick #58 in the 2001 draft.

I'm just saying that when taking a player based on his ability to develop his elite traits after the draft rather than them already possessing them, it takes a bit more faith in the player.
 
TheGeneral said:
Swan wasn't even fit enough to be a midfielder as a junior.

The likes of Cousins, Bradley, Judd, Crawford, Williams, Ratten, Camporeale, Koutoufides and Harvey who ran hard all day didn't take as many breaks as Swan.

Gaff is fitter than Sidebottom.

I hear Gaff will hurt sides more than Swan with his kicking.
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This is an outstanding mess - I'll address it in parts.

TheGeneral said:
Swan wasn't even fit enough to be a midfielder as a junior.
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Nope. But he is now. My point wasn't that Gaff isn't fit - It was that he hasn't proven his workrate at AFL level to be considered in the elite group of the AFL yet.

If he is to join that group, it will require him developing that after being drafted.

TheGeneral said:
The likes of Cousins, Bradley, Judd, Crawford, Williams, Ratten, Camporeale, Koutoufides and Harvey who ran hard all day didn't take as many breaks as Swan.
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You've managed to weave in Cousins and Crawford with 6 Carlton players and one assistant coach. Those were really the best examples of fitness that there have ever been?

No, none of them rotated as much as Swan. If you hadn't noticed, the extreme increase in interchanges has been a recent thing, which none of the retired players that you listed really participated in.

None of them spent as much of the game sprinting as Dane Swan either, which is the benefit that he gets from resting more often. It might not have won him the Brownlow, but it did win us the flag, so I'll take it.

TheGeneral said:
Gaff is fitter than Sidebottom.
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So Gaff is fitter than anyone at Collingwood then?

Considering Sidebottom has the best endurance at our club, I'll just run down and tell our Premiership 22 that not one of them is fitter than Andrew Gaff.

TheGeneral said:
I hear Gaff will hurt sides more than Swan with his kicking.
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So he'll join Swan in both of them hurting sides with their kicking more than Judd then?
 
postman_pav said:
i suggest you do the same. West didnt get 80% diposal efficiency in 3 of his past 5yrs :)
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Not great with the old maths are you. Scott West's kicking efficiency his last 8 years.

2001 82.3
2002 79.7
2003 81.9
2004 77.3
2005 83.1
2006 79.3
2007 78.2
2008 79.5

A kicking efficiency of over 80% (80.16 to be exact) his last 8 years. You are corrected.

Regards Chip
 
Knightmare said:
Some different news outside of the commonly known late mail.


Atley might slip through to 12 if Essendon don't take him.

Cripps to Fremantle if Conca goes early will be considered.

Billie Smedts to Adelaide is another to look out for, apparently being looked at as one of the possibilities if available.
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Thank goodness...I am really starting to get worried we will take Smedts over Isaac Smith.

Although then it becomes interesting with Smedts 14, Isaac 15 and BSmith 16, Lycett could then slide a fair way yes?
 
Not mail but a hunch / call.

I think that Darling will slip past Freo at 20 and he will go to the Eagles at 26. Poor season, bad press and lack of improvement / growth over the past 12 months have pushed him down the ratings.

Darling will be the big slider in this draft.

Also think Heppell will slide past pick 5 due to OP issues, will get picked closer to pick 10 than pick 5. Good chance GC will grab him I reckon.
 
Obeanie1 said:
Not mail but a hunch / call.

I think that Darling will slip past Freo at 20 and he will go to the Eagles at 26. Poor season, bad press and lack of improvement / growth over the past 12 months have pushed him down the ratings.

Darling will be the big slider in this draft.

Also think Heppell will slide past pick 5 due to OP issues, will get picked closer to pick 10 than pick 5. Good chance GC will grab him I reckon.
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I think Freo will go for Conca first if available if not then Darling their the 2 main areas they need
 
kingy46 said:
yeah my mates mrs goes to school with him [Tom Lynch] and she said he was excited because they said to him they [Richmond] will probably take him at 6! hope its right
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Richmond are the real unknown. I've heard about Polec, Heppell, Atley, Lynch, Caddy, Conca, Tape going to the Tigers.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Thank goodness...I am really starting to get worried we will take Smedts over Isaac Smith.

Although then it becomes interesting with Smedts 14, Isaac 15 and BSmith 16, Lycett could then slide a fair way yes?
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It will be interesting. Smedts I really like and there is no reason to be disappointed if you take him. Rate him well inside my top 10 on quality.

Smith is said to be Geelong's preferred option, but still others will no doubt be on their list and maybe a Jacobs or Smedts slides and they think they represent greater value.

Pick 14 I don't think is a done deal. Everyone has just assumed Adelaide take Brodie Smith will be the selection being the local. Certainly will be considered and no reason why they won't take him, but others will be considered.

At 16 Lycett I don't think will be the only one considered. On quality probably the best available and being the local is logical. But others are under consideration and it is far from a certain selection.

Lycett could go anywhere from 12-mid 30s basically because so few teams need a ruckman. But he is certainly well deserving of going at 16 based on quality. Almost wouldn't be surprised to see Port go with a mid since they are fairly content with their developing ruckman, but we'll have to see.
 

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Knightmare said:
It will be interesting. Smedts I really like and there is no reason to be disappointed if you take him. Rate him well inside my top 10 on quality.

Smith is said to be Geelong's preferred option, but still others will no doubt be on their list and maybe a Jacobs or Smedts slides and they think they represent greater value.

Pick 14 I don't think is a done deal. Everyone has just assumed Adelaide take Brodie Smith will be the selection being the local. Certainly will be considered and no reason why they won't take him, but others will be considered.

At 16 Lycett I don't think will be the only one considered. On quality probably the best available and being the local is logical. But others are under consideration and it is far from a certain selection.

Lycett could go anywhere from 12-mid 30s basically because so few teams need a ruckman. But he is certainly well deserving of going at 16 based on quality. Almost wouldn't be surprised to see Port go with a mid since they are fairly content with their developing ruckman, but we'll have to see.
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No I agree...Smedts is a worthy top 15. I just don't want to take him because of needs...as we need the next Wojo type (prelim showed that in spades) or the next Scarlett/Milburn type far more than we need the next Menzel/Mackie type (as good as Smedts will be), and given the age of our list, we simply can't afford to be drafting best available early this time around. Henceforth if we take him (or even Jacobs) ahead of either of the Smiths, Tape, Watson, McCarthy etc, I will be throwing something at my computer. So hopefully adelaide take the decision out of our hands, and then it's highly likely we;ll get a player that's a better fit for our needs.

On Lycett, do you think St Kilda will take him at 24 if he slides that far, or will they still look to find a quick player? (particularly if Prestia is gone before then).
 
Honestly if it came down to Watson/McCarthy and Smedts at 18 I would be very torn whoever we selected. Smedts may not fit the defensive bill but tallish utilities aren't the most common players, particularly not talented ones
 
Pure_Ownage said:
No I agree...Smedts is a worthy top 15. I just don't want to take him because of needs...as we need the next Wojo type (prelim showed that in spades) or the next Scarlett/Milburn type far more than we need the next Menzel/Mackie type (as good as Smedts will be), and given the age of our list, we simply can't afford to be drafting best available early this time around. Henceforth if we take him (or even Jacobs) ahead of either of the Smiths, Tape, Watson, McCarthy etc, I will be throwing something at my computer. So hopefully adelaide take the decision out of our hands, and then it's highly likely we;ll get a player that's a better fit for our needs.

On Lycett, do you think St Kilda will take him at 24 if he slides that far, or will they still look to find a quick player? (particularly if Prestia is gone before then).
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It will be interesting and for the reasons you outlined this might be exactly why Geelong are leaning towards taking I.Smith.

St Kilda is really hard to get anyone pencilled down for. Really tricky selection. He would certainly be an outstanding option at 24. I was leaning towards Dion Prestia until the news he might go to Gold Coast.

They might look at Karnezis or Cripps. Karnezis is the medium forward they have been lacking and Cripps adds some real line breaking outside speed. Both logical fits in that range, but it is very unclear who they selection.
 
ChipDouglas said:
Not great with the old maths are you. Scott West's kicking efficiency his last 8 years.

2001 82.3
2002 79.7
2003 81.9
2004 77.3
2005 83.1
2006 79.3
2007 78.2
2008 79.5

A kicking efficiency of over 80% (80.16 to be exact) his last 8 years. You are corrected.

Regards Chip
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There is a major flaw in your calculations. You seem to be assuming that he had the same number of kicks every year. That seems extremely unlikely
 

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  • Gold Coast to take Swallow at 1
  • WC to take either Gaff or Polec at 4
  • Gold Coast to take one of Prestia/Caddy
  • North to take Lycett at 17 to cover Hales' departure
  • Richmond to take Conca if still there for their 2nd pick
  • Dan Nicholson to St Kilda at pick 24 (saw him at The Elms with Ross Lyon on Monday)
  • Richmond to pass on their last pick
 
Gallions Reach said:
  • Gold Coast to take Swallow at 1
  • WC to take either Gaff or Polec at 4
  • Gold Coast to take one of Prestia/Caddy
  • North to take Lycett at 17 to cover Hales' departure
  • Richmond to take Conca if still there for their 2nd pick
  • Dan Nicholson to St Kilda at pick 24 (saw him at The Elms with Ross Lyon on Monday)
  • Richmond to pass on their last pick
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lol what? The reason we got rid of Hale was because there was no spot from him in the team. Why would we then waste a first rounder to get, at best - a back up ruckman?
 
AGC said:
lol what? The reason we got rid of Hale was because there was no spot from him in the team. Why would we then waste a first rounder to get, at best - a back up ruckman?
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That is the word AGC. Lycett is quality, and if Port overlook him, expect your boys to pounce.

Don't forget that Lycett is only 18, could be a very handy back-up for McIntosh and Goldstein or even move one of the three into the forward line.
 
sr36 said:
There is a major flaw in your calculations. You seem to be assuming that he had the same number of kicks every year. That seems extremely unlikely
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give it a rest
 
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