The 2015 Attendance Thread

[MattF185]

If all goes to plan, this week should reach around 315,000.
WCE Carl 35,000
Rich WB 55,000
GWS Melb 10,000
Coll Adel 35,000
Port Syd 50,000
GC StK 15,000
Geel Fre 25,000
Ess Haw 70,000
NM BL 20,000

Thoughts?

 

[Hawkk]

Essendon and Hawthorn have only played in front of 65,000+ once in a Home and Away season match, which was in 2009.

The Hawks and Bombers haven't played at the MCG since round 14 2011 (a game that drew 64,537 between 4th and 8th). If this games draws 65,000 plus it begs the question what the games in 2012 (round 17, 3rd v 6th), 2013 (round 18, 1st v 2nd) and 2014 (round 2 - almost identical circumstances) would have drawn.

A rivalry that has basically been killed off by the AFL...that and the Hawks thumping the Bombers at will (round 2, 2014 notwithstanding)

That said, Matthews Knights more than any other coach had a pretty decent record against Clarkson (2-3).

 

[kaypee]

C

If all goes to plan, this week should reach around 315,000.
WCE Carl 35,000
Rich WB 55,000
GWS Melb 10,000
Coll Adel 35,000
Port Syd 50,000
GC StK 15,000
Geel Fre 25,000
Ess Haw 70,000
NM BL 20,000

Thoughts?

Coll v Adelaide should pull closer to 42k, I would have thought. Gc v st Kilda might get a few more too. Rich v footscray might get a few more as well

 

[Demonoid]

If all goes to plan, this week should reach around 315,000.
WCE Carl 35,000
Rich WB 55,000
GWS Melb 10,000
Coll Adel 35,000
Port Syd 50,000
GC StK 15,000
Geel Fre 25,000
Ess Haw 70,000
NM BL 20,000

Thoughts?

Hard to argue with that. Had the Coll v Ade game been at the MCG, with the 2 teams coming off a win, 40k plus easy. There are many Crows fans in Melbourne and their fans travel as well. The loss to Port in the opening round my dampen the crowd but expect at least 45k. No idea what Essendon will brign to the table... Could be anywhere from 60k - to 80k.

 

[Rouel_14]

Richmond Western Bulldogs should push high 50,000's. Bulldogs have only played in front of crowds of 50+ 16 times in the Home and Away season.
The breakdown:
50+: 7 times
55+: 3 times
60+: 1 time
65+ 5 times

I really doubt tigers and dogs will pull much more than the 50000 expected! I think that is about spot on! And that is an achievement in its self!

 

[Oneiros]

I don't think a narrow loss at Subi should dampen Port supporters much.

 

[Demonoid]

I don't think a narrow loss at Subi should dampen Port supporters much.

I don't think so (and hope not) but if you listen to any Crow supporter, they will tell you the tarps are only a few losses away

 

[Old_Man_James]

Historical Averages since '97 or first time at venue for each exact fixture. Home team at X venue.

WCE v Carl - 38,335
Rich v WB - 34,600
GWS v Melb -7,561*
Coll v Ade - 39,485
GC v StK -13,969
Port v Syd - 50,087*
Gee v Fre - 20,033
Ess v Haw - 51,818
NM v Bris - 23,030

* - Fixture played once only.
Total - 278,918

I see very little little downside to those fixtures, Port - Sydney may soften to 45K, WCE - Carl and NM -Bris may fall a thousand or two short but otherwise I would hope all averages are achieved.

As previously noted, there is significant upside potential in WB - Rich and Ess - Haw, I am going to be conservative and estimate an extra 10K to each fixture. If 50K is achieved that would be a post '97 record for WB - Rich.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

If all goes to plan, this week should reach around 315,000.
WCE Carl 35,000
Rich WB 55,000
GWS Melb 10,000
Coll Adel 35,000
Port Syd 50,000
GC StK 15,000
Geel Fre 25,000
Ess Haw 70,000
NM BL 20,000

Thoughts?

giants have only managed 10K at spotless twice average crowd against the dee's between 7-8K
GC against saints will be 12-13K based on previous years.

Etihad or not collingwood should be atleast 40K.

the rest look about right but With norths jump in members i'd expect there's to be up by around 2K.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Dogs and Tigs both fair poorly in the afl and mcc numbers, so can't see us getting much over 50k even in ideal conditions

 

[MattF185]

giants have only managed 10K at spotless twice average crowd against the dee's between 7-8K
GC against saints will be 12-13K based on previous years.

Etihad or not collingwood should be atleast 40K.

the rest look about right but With norths jump in members i'd expect there's to be up by around 2K.

Yes, but both GWS and Melbourne won their round 1 matches, so that could increase the crowd by 2,000.
Collingwood usually average low crowds at Etihad. Round 1 last year, they only got 37,000 against Freo, and then 28,000 in Round 13 against the Dogs when they were inside the top 4.
It'll be interesting to see

 

[Sydney Bloods]

but thats quite an ask when the games in canberra. i can't see melbourne being a big attraction. If was a team that had some following in the ACT, such as North or the bullies or even the swans i could see it. But the demons?

 

[fabulousphil]

but thats quite an ask when the games in canberra. i can't see melbourne being a big attraction. If was a team that had some following in the ACT, such as North or the bullies or even the swans i could see it. But the demons?

You never know .... GWS might actually become a team people will come to watch play

Weather withstanding should get around 10k

 

[Sydney Bloods]

You never know .... GWS might actually become a team people will come to watch play

Weather withstanding should get around 10k

well i'm assuming the 7K are there to watch GWS, or more accurately to study Tom Scully so they figure out how he became more overpaid then most civil servants.

 

[Madtiger2006]

We will have minimum of 40,000 tigers at our game. Dogs should get 15,000 there. I see no reason why we can't get 60,000 to our game if the weather is nice

 

[Hawkk]

We will have minimum of 40,000 tigers at our game. Dogs should get 15,000 there. I see no reason why we can't get 60,000 to our game if the weather is nice

Can you qualify these numbers? It would nice to get through a round without these baseless projections

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Rd 1 crowds
http://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2015.html#04

 

[The_Wookie]

i now track the crowds and ratings on the same table.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Richmond Western Bulldogs should push high 50,000's. Bulldogs have only played in front of crowds of 50+ 16 times in the Home and Away season.
The breakdown:
50+: 7 times
55+: 3 times
60+: 1 time
65+ 5 times

This gives a bit of realism to the predictions for the tigers Crowd V Footscray.

Many are saying it will or should be 55,000 plus. If it is then it will be one of the top 10 Dogs attendances EVER and the second biggest Tigers V Dogs crowd ever.

OK its Richmond at home and both sides won in Round 1 but to give some context Richmond are about 21.00 in the market for the flag and not favoured to be top 4. The Dogs are regarded as destined for the basement.

How many times has 21.00 in the betting hosting 200.00 in the betting broken 50,000 never mind 55,000? Probably never.

50,000 will be massive. 55,000 almost unprecedented in the circumstances with nothing indicating an outlying event.

 

[RodneyMaynard]

giants have only managed 10K at spotless twice average crowd against the dee's between 7-8K

One of those matches against Melbourne was the coldest I've ever been in my life. And to put that in context, I once stood on the summit of Jungfraujoch in a blizzard wearing shorts.

I bought 6 pies during the GWS v Dees game and only ate two. The rest I would hold in my hands until it lost its warmth, drop it on the floor and go buy another.

I think the game will get between 9k and 11k this weekend.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

How many times have Richmond hosted us at the G since 2000. (for that matter any other team like the Pies, Hawks) It's always at Ethiad regardless of home team. So it would have happen more times.

 

[Old_Man_James]

How many times have Richmond hosted us at the G since 2000. (for that matter any other team like the Pies, Hawks) It's always at Ethiad regardless of home team. So it would have happen more times.

13 to 6 Split, Since docklands built. With 4 of those Docklands games Richmond's Home game. The last 2 times at the MCG, were approx 28K in 2012 and 2010. A good turnup this round will help shift some games back to the MCG, as 30K crowds will likely see the fixture keep being played at docklands IMO.

 

[Hawkk]

13 to 6 Split, Since docklands built. With 4 of those Docklands games Richmond's Home game. The last 2 times at the MCG, were approx 28K in 2012 and 2010. A good turnup this round will help shift some games back to the MCG, as 30K crowds will likely see the fixture keep being played at docklands IMO.

I wonder how many will have to turn up to the Essendon v Hawthorn game so that it can avoid Docklands.

If the past is any indication it'll need to be more than the 64,537 that went in 2011 as the Bombers have hosted Hawthorn in 'once off' fixtures at Docklands in 2012, 2013 and 2014 all the while hosting Melbourne at the MCG in 2012, 2013 and 2014 (42,987, 51,153 and 44,626)

 

[Old_Man_James]

I wonder how many will have to turn up to the Essendon v Hawthorn game so that it can avoid Docklands.

If the past is any indication it'll need to be more than the 64,537 that went in 2011 as the Bombers have hosted Hawthorn in 'once off' fixtures at Docklands in 2012, 2013 and 2014 all the while hosting Melbourne at the MCG in 2012, 2013 and 2014 (42,987, 51,153 and 44,626)

There are some fixtures such as Ess v Haw but also Gee v Ess is another example where I am just too suspicious that maximizing attendances is clearly not a priority but some hidden deal that guarantees Etihad get a few blockbuster games each year where demand is likely to reach/exceed capacity. The last few years have seen Geelong play their home game v Essendon at docklands, where anyone could have seen that playing at the MCG would have netted a much higher crowd. The same goes for Ess v Haw.

You just hope that the larger the crowd, the more likely it will be at the MCG in future. Anything 60K+ would help that case, but as you said with more than 64K in 2011, it would have to be a huge crowd to make the next fixture at the MCG inevitable.

 

[Rob]

One of those matches against Melbourne was the coldest I've ever been in my life. And to put that in context, I once stood on the summit of Jungfraujoch in a blizzard wearing shorts.

I bought 6 pies during the GWS v Dees game and only ate two. The rest I would hold in my hands until it lost its warmth, drop it on the floor and go buy another.

I think the game will get between 9k and 11k this weekend.

That's be a brilliant turnout if it happens.

Give them credit, GWS have engaged Canberra pretty well over the few years they've been playing games. Arguably better than Western Sydney. It's not like people would show up expecting a good game of football (at least not yet).