Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
I'd have to read your posts first to be baited
Universal Love The Jason Taylor Appreciation Thread
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Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Give him credit for the kings, that Liam Hulett bloke, Omac. So much
pjfairbairn
AFL Premiership Supporter, 2021
The architect
Tulip
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Big brain stuff lol. The guy came in when we were the worst team of all time. He lost three first round picks in two years when we traded in two key backs, that doesn’t happen in isolation to the drafting process. He’s not gonna pick key backs in the first round and say “wait what, you just traded in two superstars, why didn’t you tell me”.
Bluelegs
Celebrating what we're good at
Decided to take a look at drafting under Jason Taylor to really assess how good a job he's done. Below is a table with every pick since 2013 within the national draft, rookie draft, and mid-season draft.
Included is a rating of the success of the pick which fall into the following categories: Minor Fail, Fail, Major Fail, Minor Success, Succes, Major Success. These ratings are determined based on a number of factors.
Firstly, I factor in how the player turned out against quality of the pick, with a note on other players who were available around the same range that were passed on. So a player like Harrison Petty would be a Major Success as he was picked with a later pick but someone like Christian Salem would only be Minor Success as he was a high pick who has had a good but not great career to this point.
With this in mind, another consideration I have taken into my ratings is that just because Taylor missed on certain players it does not mean he failed. No recruiter is going to get the best player available with every pick especially if they are instructed to target specific types of players. Therefore I have weighted players higher or lower based on who was passed on around the mark who plays the same position. For example Sam Weideman is a Major Fail at pick 9 as we missed out on Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow who were picked soon after. But Mitch King who was picked at 42 and never played a game is only a Minor Fail as there were very few players who amounted to much around the same mark.
There are also a some players who I have given 'No Rating'. This is either players who have not had enough time to determine a clear rating, or players who were neither successes nor failures as their careers didn't amount to much but there was no obvious player available in their range that could have been picked.
Finally I have ignored picks where we have passed (usually in the rookie draft) I didn't have the information available to know whether we had reached the maximum number of players on our list at that time and therefore do not think it's fair to judge Taylor where his hands may have been tied.
By my own determinations from 48 picks Taylor has had 10 Minor Fails, 4 Fails, 1 Major Fail, 5 Minor Successes, 10 Successes, and 5 Major Sucesses, as well as 13 No Ratings. This leaves him with 20 positive selections, 15 negative selections and 13 inconclusive selections. A solid strikerate in my opinion.
Included is a rating of the success of the pick which fall into the following categories: Minor Fail, Fail, Major Fail, Minor Success, Succes, Major Success. These ratings are determined based on a number of factors.
Firstly, I factor in how the player turned out against quality of the pick, with a note on other players who were available around the same range that were passed on. So a player like Harrison Petty would be a Major Success as he was picked with a later pick but someone like Christian Salem would only be Minor Success as he was a high pick who has had a good but not great career to this point.
With this in mind, another consideration I have taken into my ratings is that just because Taylor missed on certain players it does not mean he failed. No recruiter is going to get the best player available with every pick especially if they are instructed to target specific types of players. Therefore I have weighted players higher or lower based on who was passed on around the mark who plays the same position. For example Sam Weideman is a Major Fail at pick 9 as we missed out on Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow who were picked soon after. But Mitch King who was picked at 42 and never played a game is only a Minor Fail as there were very few players who amounted to much around the same mark.
There are also a some players who I have given 'No Rating'. This is either players who have not had enough time to determine a clear rating, or players who were neither successes nor failures as their careers didn't amount to much but there was no obvious player available in their range that could have been picked.
Finally I have ignored picks where we have passed (usually in the rookie draft) I didn't have the information available to know whether we had reached the maximum number of players on our list at that time and therefore do not think it's fair to judge Taylor where his hands may have been tied.
| Player | Pick | Year | Rating |
| Christian Salem | 9 | 2013 | Minor Success (Missed out on Dom Sheed and Patrick Cripps) |
| Jay Kennedy Harris | 40 | 2013 | Fail (Missed out on Jake Kolodjashnij, Tom Barrass, Allir Allir and Ben Brown) |
| Jayden Hunt | 57 | 2013 | Minor Success (Late pick, missed out on John Ceglar and Karl Amon) |
| James Harmes | 2 (Rookie Draft) | 2014 | Success (Missed out on Charlie Cameron) |
| Max King | 19 (Rookie Draft) | 2014 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Maverick Weller) |
| Alexis Georgiou | 35 (Rookie Draft) | 2014 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Jake Kelly) |
| Christian Petracca | 2 | 2014 | Success (Obvious choice) |
| Angus Brayshaw | 3 | 2014 | Success (Missed out on Jordan De Goey) |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 40 | 2014 | Success |
| Billy Stretch | 42 | 2014 | Fail (Missed out on Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel) |
| Oscar McDonald | 53 | 2014 | Fail (Missed out on Ed Langdon and Dougal Howard) |
| Aaron vandenBerg | 2 (Rookie Draft) | 2015 | Success |
| Mitch White | 20 (Rookie Draft) | 2015 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Adam Saad) |
| Clayton Oliver | 4 | 2015 | Major Success |
| Sam Weideman | 9 | 2015 | Major Fail (Missed out on Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow) |
| Mitch King | 42 | 2015 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Blake Hardwick) |
| Liam Hulett | 46 | 2015 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Bailey Williams) |
| Josh Wagner | 6 (Rooke Draft) | 2016 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Tom Papley) |
| Viv Michie | 24 (Rookie Draft) | 2016 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Mabior Chol) |
| Joel Smith | 41 (Rookie Draft) | 2016 | Minor Success (Missed out on Hugh Greenwood) |
| Mitch Hannan | 46 | 2016 | Minor Success (Missed out on Willie Rioli, Jack Graham) |
| Dion Johnstone | 64 | 2016 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Luke Ryan and Nick Larkey) |
| Lachlan Filipovic | 8 (Rookie Draft) | 2017 | Fail (Missed out on Rowan Marshall and Cameron Zurhaar) |
| Tim Smith | 25 (Rookie Draft) | 2017 | No Rating |
| Declan Keilty | 41 (Rookie Draft) | 2017 | No Rating |
| Charlie Spargo | 29 | 2017 | Success (Missed out on Tom De Koning) |
| Bayley Fritsch | 31 | 2017 | Major Success (Missed out on Tom McCartin) |
| Harrison Petty | 37 | 2017 | Major Success |
| Oskar Baker | 48 | 2017 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Gryan Miers) |
| Tom Sparrow | 27 | 2018 | Success |
| James Jordon | 33 | 2018 | Success |
| Aaron Nietschke | 53 | 2018 | Minor Fail (Missed out on Lachie Schultz) |
| Marty Hore | 56 | 2018 | No Rating |
| Toby Bedford | 75 | 2018 | Minor Success |
| Kade Chandler | 15 (Rookie draft) | 2019 | No Rating |
| Kyle Dunkley | 3 (Mid-season draft) | 2019 | No Rating |
| Luke Jackson | 3 | 2019 | Major Success |
| Kysaiah Pickett | 12 | 2019 | Major Success (Missed out on Cody Weightman, Will Day, Mitch Georgiades and Sam De Koning) |
| Trent Rivers | 32 | 2019 | Success (Missed out on Chad Warner) |
| Jake Bowey | 21 | 2020 | Success |
| Bailey Laurie | 22 | 2020 | No Rating |
| Fraser Rosman | 34 | 2020 | No Rating |
| Kyle Declase | 15 (Mid-season draft) | 2021 | No Rating |
| Daniel Turner | 24 (Midseason draft) | 2021 | No Rating |
| Jacob van Rooyen | 19 | 2021 | No Rating |
| Blake Howes | 39 | 2021 | No Rating |
| Taj Woewodin | 65 | 2021 | No Rating |
| Judd McVee | 18 (Rookie Draft) | 2022 | No Rating |
By my own determinations from 48 picks Taylor has had 10 Minor Fails, 4 Fails, 1 Major Fail, 5 Minor Successes, 10 Successes, and 5 Major Sucesses, as well as 13 No Ratings. This leaves him with 20 positive selections, 15 negative selections and 13 inconclusive selections. A solid strikerate in my opinion.
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Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
So how come the cats have got De Koning, Stewart, Blicavs etc outside 10 and we've got Petty in a decade.
Would be interesting to see the budgets/size of recruitment teams comparison between all clubs. The soft cap is there now but recruitment would be an area the wealthy clubs can really flex by having more eyes on the ground and better talent spotters.
JT’s picks beyond 30 speak for themselves.
JT’s picks beyond 30 speak for themselves.
Good analysis even if I think a few of the ratings should be slightly different.
Bluelegs
Celebrating what we're good at
Everyone is going to have their own opinions, of course. It's why I included the successful players at other clubs who were picked around the mark. I didn't include duds around the mark. There were plenty of examples of other clubs missing on the same blokes we did. But if there's one bloke between 40-50 who was way better than every other player picked in that range and we still got a semi-decent player I wasn't going to judge Taylor too harshly on it.
Tulip
Hall of Famer
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Good overall post but harsh on the 2014 draft. Trac won a Norm and is a multiple AA. Brayshaw is better than Do Goey. Also think Salem goes better than Sheed. Minor one too but Hipwood was academy.
Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
I think Taylors been good, but he's not a top 5 recruiter in the AFL.
Bluelegs
Celebrating what we're good at
Trac isnt a Major Success because he was so obvious. Not a slight on him at all or Taylor, just can't really give him huge wraps for picking the widely accepted best player in that year.
Also to clarify on the players missed. They weren't necessarily players I would rather have, just good players who were also available around the mark. For instance, I would take Kozzy every day over Cody Weightman, Will Day, Mitch Georgiades and Sam De Koning. Good call on Academy I tried to filter those guys out but missed Hipwood.
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Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Yeah picking Trac is worth piss all. You picked the best kid in the country that everyone rated best except stkilda. My hero
Yeah absolutely, wasn't having a dig, just that these things are subjective but you've done a good job providing a clear rationale.
Would be interesting seeing this same analysis for other good club's recruiters.
Bluelegs
Celebrating what we're good at
I would do Geelong but need to get back to work lol.
Best thing is doing some over the top analysis on BigFooty and lookin up and realising it's nearly lunch time
Tulip
Hall of Famer
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If I had to guess, I’d say that when he arrived key back was our only relatively strong position. We had Chip, TMac, Garland and Rivers when he joined. Maybe ruck as well given Jamar was still pretty good and there was some promise around Gawn and Fitzpatrick.
The Weideman pick was a massive bust, but I don’t for a moment hold Hulett or Oscar against him given they were late picks. Even clubs like the cats who draft a lot of key position players draft guys like Wylie Buzza.
The midfield was our biggest challenge, and he build the best one in the game almost entirely from the draft. It’s not like we’ve had heaps of key position players come in and fail, it’s obviously been a list management decision to target mids and smalls. Our last big haul was in 2019 and we went a ruck and a small forward in the first few picks, that’s highly unconventional, but both picks were huge successes.
With our midfield being stacked and our forward line a mess, im sure we will use the LJ picks on talls.
Stewart and Blitz were huge picks, but I guess that’s the benefit of the Geelong fishbowl. Not that we couldn’t have drafted them though, we could have and didn’t. The Cats and Swans are the best in the business when it comes to drafting and developing, but I think the other 15 clubs would be knocking on Taylor’s door.
Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Um every key player drafted in a decade? We had to pay 3 first round picks to build a backline because we couldn't draft any and now we're gonna have to give up another couple for some forwards.
I like AnB and some others but if he and Jordan, Spargo, Chandler and a few others were taken by north or GC they'd be delisted by now
Premierships in the last decade
GFC: 0
MFC: 1
It's indisputable. All hail The Architect!
Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Yeah not sure you're gonna like that stat in about 5 weeks.
Tulip
Hall of Famer
- May 3, 2009
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This is a dumb argument. We traded them in because we wanted them, not because we had drafted a ton of busts. The drafting and list management team work together, not separately.
As for the part about guys like Spargo not making it at s**t teams. What do you want? You can’t rightly say that we screwed the development of Strauss, Tapscott etc and then flip that around. A functional footy club drafts raw talent late in the draft and develops it with patience.
Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Disagree. Richmond, Sydney, Geelong for sure keep theirs. Then WC and Hawks arguably on par aswell.
Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
We wanted them because we had no key backs stupid. Wouldn't have had to pay them if we could find our own but we haven't taken any. I get it you think everyone at the clubs the greatest of all time except goody who week to week is a massive failure.
