The Premiership Standard - 100pts for, 86 pts against

[PowerForGood]

So now you're ok with the Premiership Standard?

Absolutely. Aren't you convinced that Port Adelaide is closer to playing at a premiership level than Hawthorn?

 

[MWPP]

Absolutely. Aren't you convinced that Port Adelaide is closer to playing at a premiership level than Hawthorn?

Aren't we all ?
Afterall, it's easier to be convinced of something if we want it to be true

 

[Furn2]

The premier almost always win a final in the previous year also.

That knocks a few teams out.

Leaves only North and WC right now I believe.

 

[MWPP]

The premier almost always win a final in the previous year also.

That knocks a few teams out.

Leaves only North and WC right now I believe.

Geelong didn't even make the finals in 2006
But can't think of other examples off the top of my head

 

[Furn2]

Currently Adelaide is the only team close to that 110-90 average. Probably not ready to win the premiership this year.

http://premiershipstandard.com/ has been updated

It's not about being close to the numbers.

It's scoring more than 100 per game AND conceding less than 86.

So scoring 130 and conceding 50 for example.

Adelaide currently don't meet that standard because you concede too many.

 

[Furn2]

Geelong didn't even make the finals in 2006
But can't think of other examples off the top of my head

It's very rare.

Teams get close but it almost always holds up.

 

[GreyCrow]

I'm perplexed that this sort of conditional stat has gained much credence. The "premiership standard" would only really mean something if achieving the standard meant you were pretty assured of a premiership.

100 points for and 86 against is a percentage of 116. Not that amazing a stat to say that a percentage of 116 gives you a shot at a flag.

It's self-evident, like saying - if you don't get in the top 4 on a percentage ladder, you can't make the Grand Final.
.

What it's really saying is that in hindsight, 14 of 15 flag (not all!) winning teams reached this minimum standard. And this standard is no different to saying "13 of 16 flag winning teams finished 1st or 2nd H&A" or "all Grand Finalists were in the top 4 percentage wise". It's self evident that you have to perform well to win a flag.

This "standard" is not really that high. And the analysis is certainly not "predictive" as it's being used. But it's a nice stat to show on a graph.

And that's one year out of 15.
Over 11 and 12, six teams met the standard that didn't make the GF.
A standard would suggest that if you get close to it, you are close to the result.
Yet twice in the last 3 years teams got very close to it, yet didnt even make the eight.

My opinion (and thats all it is) is that its a statistic, a nice one, but nothing more.

Absolutely. Aren't you convinced that Port Adelaide is closer to playing at a premiership level than Hawthorn?

hahaha

You spent 1 page decrying it now it suits your purpose you love it. Funny stuff

 

[PowerForGood]

hahaha

You spent 1 page decrying it now it suits your purpose you love it. Funny stuff

You really need to look up the definition of the word "sarcasm".

Very clearly (or so I thought) noted that Port is playing at closer to a premiership standard than Hawthorn, then highlighting that we won't play finals and Hawthorn will. (I.e. Wins more important than percentage)

Sorry for not being clear enough.

 

[Furn2]

Hawthorn now officially meet the premiership standard.


At least for the next two weeks.

So look out.

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide are getting close since their backline tightened up - 112 for, 87 against.

 

[Rotayjay]

North and Sydney have now joined the Bulldogs in the 'defensive but too defensive' zone.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Adelaide are getting close since their backline tightened up - 112 for, 87 against.

So holding Melbourne to around 70 points this week should put the Crows in the "premiership zone" then.

 

[Hobbes]

So holding Melbourne to around 70 points this week should put the Crows in the "premiership zone" then.

Allegedly. Personally, I'd just find a massive margin of victory more convincing.

 

[Hobbes]

Geelong didn't even make the finals in 2006
But can't think of other examples off the top of my head

Adelaide 1997.

 

[BobbyMorri]

North and Sydney have now joined the Bulldogs in the 'defensive but too defensive' zone.

the stat is a bit harsh. we have played in more than a couple wet games this year.

i want a review.

 

[Rotayjay]

the stat is a bit harsh. we have played in more than a couple wet games this year.

i want a review.

Here you go.

Review underway

Review completed, the score is a behind

 

[Chaisa]

So going into the finals, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide and GWS are all currently meeting the Premiership Standard. Interesting to see if the theory holds.

 

[Scotland]

We're 99 for, 76 against.

Weird to think of us as not high scoring enough, but we've put in a few stinkers to bring the average down.

 

[Freomaniac]

So going into the finals, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide and GWS are all currently meeting the Premiership Standard. Interesting to see if the theory holds.

I am glad someone bumped the post. thanks for that

We're 99 for, 76 against.

Weird to think of us as not high scoring enough, but we've put in a few stinkers to bring the average down.

Yep 99 points. Ya one point short. Along with Ross Lyon, your team is racist to high scoring sides.


Also... I noticed hawthorn didnt fit that 100 points for and 86 points against requirements too.

 

[Freomaniac]

Adelaide 1997.

Geelong 2007, Adelaide 1997 and bombers of 1993.

 

[Freomaniac]

So going into the finals, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide and GWS are all currently meeting the Premiership Standard. Interesting to see if the theory holds.

And those 4 sides are still left.

Hawthorn sadly didnt fit that standard

 

[Freomaniac]

So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast - 105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST


They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?

Western Bulldogs side of 2016...
For: 1857 or 84.4 points a game

Against :1609 or 73.3 points a game

Yep premiership stats my a**

 

[Freomaniac]

congrats to the dogs though

 

[Freomaniac]

Well, if this statistical correlation can be ruled out then Fremantle are definitely out of the running under one I've kept an eye on for years which says "you can't win the flag without a previous premiership player in your side".

Last side to do it was North in '96. Below are (off the top of my head, so there may be additionals as well) the previous flag players for each side
97: Jarman
98: many from 97
99: many from 96
00: Fletcher
01: Pike
02: many from 01
03: many from 01/02
04: Wanganeen
05: Ball
06: Banfield
07: Mooney
08: Dew
09: many from 07
10: Jolly
11: many from 07/09
12: Goodes
13: many from 08
14: many from 08/13

Only teams with flag players currently on their list are: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, COllingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast

Fremantle, Richmond, Bulldogs have no one and Port only have Cornes who has retired

2016 bulldogs side is the 1st side since Norths 1996 side vs sydney to win a flag without a premiership player.

They are the also the 1st team since 1971 hawks side vs the saints to be a team with no premiership players to beat a team with premiership playerals.

 

[Freomaniac]

I think it's widely accepted Ross Lyon is offensively useless and defensively brilliant, unfortunately as has been the case many times before it won't be good enough #LovesToBeABridesmaid

Yet the 2016 dogs side won a flag averaging 84 points a game