I didn't realise the dogs had won 14 if their last 16..... makes our 11 of the last 13 less impressive.
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Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.
- Thread starter go_the_dockers
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I didn't realise the dogs had won 14 if their last 16..... makes our 11 of the last 13 less impressive.
GC would have a shorter turnaround as well.
Actually if Port knock off the Suns
Were going to be sitting around for 3 more tortured days to have to stew before our fate is officially sealed if we get beaten.
As the Suns will still be 4 points behind when we play the Dogs.
The chance of Essendon beating Suns is about the same chance of me growing 6 inches and becoming a professional basketballer in middle age tho…
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Chatgpt told me the most wins a team has missed out on finals is 12. Is that true?
So 13 wins has always been enough - and this year 15 is a fail.
Lol.
So 13 wins has always been enough - and this year 15 is a fail.
Lol.
No team has ever missed on 13 im pretty sure. But that’s just a technicality cos Pies missed on 12 and 2 draws last year.
Why would professional basketball players need such a long... oh
Westerberg
Team Captain
I’m expecting to be disappointed but this can be the making of this squad. Backs against the wall, everything on the line, the offensive powerhouse vs our dour, defensive and overly conservative mindset…
Huge self belief for the challenges ahead this year and the next if we can pull through
Huge self belief for the challenges ahead this year and the next if we can pull through
I’m locking this in as it’s the ultimate dockery way of things playing out.
GC lose to Port Friday night. We lose to the Dogs.
We sit in 8th for 3 days with one game to play, and hang out for final death knell hoping against hope that ****ing Essendon will save us. And they’ll play one of those games where they kind of hang in there for a while giving supporters some delirious hope before ultimately getting smashed and thus our season ends in the most humiliating way possible.
So, the only way we play finals if we lose to Bulldogs is Gold Coast losing twice?
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Correct, which isn't happening
I was specifically talking about a home final. There are a few scenarios where we win and we get a home final. The most likely one is Port beating GC. Essendon are no chance against Port so we lose and start planning mad Thu given a technicality that we have to wait for Essendon to lose.
Quick look says yes. 2003, 2006 and 2019 seems to be the only times 13 was the minimum needed to make the finals. This year is definitely an anomaly.
Remember there is an extra game with gather round the past 3 years. Collingwood essentially missed out last year with 13 wins (12-2 draws). This year 15 will get you through but a percentage of around 115-120 is needed. Our percentage is rubbish.
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It's a ranking system, not a threshold system. This year a team will miss finals with 14 or 15 wins. In 2002 the eagles made finals with 11 wins. In 2009 Essendon made finals with 10.5 wins. None of these are remarkable. The only relevant stat is the highest ranked eight teams every year are finalists
Dogs will make the 8 having only beaten 1 top 8 side. 13/15 wins will come against bottom 9 teams. Is that a team that you want in finals?
I honestly think that we need to move away from percentage and go to a tie breaker instead. It makes more sense given how random and uneven the fixture always ends up being.
I honestly think that we need to move away from percentage and go to a tie breaker instead. It makes more sense given how random and uneven the fixture always ends up being.
I reckon we just beat the Dogs next week like we should and play finals.
Then I reckon we roll 2 teams in away wins before we crash out in a Prelim.
Sorted.
Then I reckon we roll 2 teams in away wins before we crash out in a Prelim.
Sorted.
Terrible system. I think all the captains should get together at the start of the year and roll dice to decide who makes the top 8. Every team can play to win at the beginning of the season but everything else needs to be fixed to ensure the winners of the dice play out. So flagrant umpire cheating? Well it's necessary in the new system!
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There seems to be significant minority of people arguing that missing the finals on 15 wins is not unlucky because it is now a 23 game season.
Surely these people can count right? If no team has ever missed on 13 then the new number should be 14. Like whatever else you think about the team missing should and shouldn't have done, it will be unlucky.
Surely these people can count right? If no team has ever missed on 13 then the new number should be 14. Like whatever else you think about the team missing should and shouldn't have done, it will be unlucky.
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It's unlucky for sure. Think we've got to take into account just how bad 4-6 teams are this season tbh. Even with the bottom nine only Sydney are actually capable semi regularly of being competitive against the top nine.
That's skewed things significantly.
I can't see West Coast or Essendon improving any time soon, whilst I think North and Richmond have at least a couple of bad seasons left. Melbourne look on the brink of completely falling apart, as do Carlton and Port but fir these two one more decent season before falling away wouldn't surprise me.
Think the top ten (Sydney will be goid again imo) are still as competitive next year with the bottom ten still absolutely sh**. Can't see anyone falling away - maybe Collingwood if i had to pick anyone. Its going to be a challenge next year as well.
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You feel like 9th is the pass mark again next year
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It's not unlucky. People need to ignore the number of wins, to make finals you need more wins (or the same number with a better percentage) than 10 other teams. That's it. The absolute number of wins is irrelevant
It's not a pass mark this year.
Narrowly missing the pass mark in one season doesn't mean sack the coach though. It's been three seasons now though so how long can we say 'if x had happened we would've won this game/s and made finals'?
I'll go with the ride whichever way we go.
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Is winning games by close margins lucky or good? If Collingwood kicked straight in the last, they win.
Is our percentage going down from last year a sign we have not improved?
Why haven't we worked out a way to stop the centre clearance issue?
Is Young missing games enough reason for us to miss finals?
Winning 11 of the last 13 is very impressive, but losing to St Kilda, Melbourne and Sydney twice is shocking.
We have a good record vs top sides, but struggle vs the bottom 9 and can't put any side away.
I feel for every good sign, there is an equal bad sign , so I can't work out if we had a good year or a bad year.
Our record vs the top 9 sides looks good so far, and this is one factor that pushes me towards saying we have had a good season but if we lose to Brisbane and Bulldogs in the last 2 rounds, especially if we get smashed in both games then we should look to see if JL is the coach to take us forward.
For me, assuming we keep him which I think we will, we need to hire a senior assistant coach who is a bit tougher on players, and is good at tactics.
We also can't sit on our hands regarding players, we need to identify weaknesses in our list and fill it (Outside players with speed and skill, Small/Medium forwards with speed and skill) and find players to fill it.
I would love Adam Simpson, but I think that is unlikely.
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