Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[HTT]

Why does Squiggle rate Melbourne to beat GWS?

The squiggle rates them more highly than the people because they’ve smashed up on bad teams, and been more than competitive against most top teams, even when travelling. The fact they are 0-7 against top teams isn’t really taken into account by the squiggle, but it is by most people who then rightly or wrongly assert that’s they can’t beat top 8 teams. The squiggle would put a lot of that record down to luck.

 

[Hobbes]

Essendon +27 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +5 v Geelong
Gold Coast v Richmond +56
Port Adelaide +6 v West Coast
Collingwood +14 v Brisbane
GWS +29 v Adelaide
North Melbourne +20 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne +25 v Sydney
Fremantle +22 v Carlton

6/9. Sydney's results this year continue to make no sense.

1. Richmond 27.7
2. GWS 21.1
3. Hawthorn 17.4
4. Essendon 14.92 (+2)
5. West Coast 14.91
6. Collingwood 11.5 (+2)
7. Geelong 10.6
8. Melbourne 10.2 (-4)
9. Adelaide 4.6 (+1)
10. Port Adelaide 3.7 (-1)
11. Sydney -0.5 (+2)
12. Brisbane -2.7
13. North Melbourne -3.4 (-2)
14. Western Bulldogs -16.2 (+1)
15. St Kilda -17.8 (-1)
16. Fremantle -24.6
17. Gold Coast -37.6
18. Carlton -40.4

Richmond +13 v Essendon
Collingwood +14 v Port Adelaide
Geelong +44 v Fremantle
GWS +22 v Sydney
Gold Coast v Brisbane +35
St Kilda v Hawthorn +35
Carlton v Western Bulldogs +24
West Coast +14 v Melbourne
Adelaide +14 v North Melbourne

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 17.6
2. West Coast 16.2
3. GWS 14.8
4. Hawthorn 14.5
5. Collingwood 14.4
6. Sydney 13.7 (+3)
7. Geelong 13.0 (+1)
8. Port Adelaide 12.81 (-1)
9. Melbourne 12.8 (-3)
10. North Melbourne 12.0
11. Essendon 11.9 (+1)
12. Adelaide 11.5 (-1)
13. Fremantle 8.3
14. Western Bulldogs 7.8
15. Brisbane 5.3
16. St Kilda 5.0
17. Gold Coast 4.1
18. Carlton 2.4

And an actual predicted ladder

Richmond 18 139
West Coast 16 121
GWS 15.5 120
Hawthorn 15 122
Collingwood 15 119
Geelong 13 121
Sydney 13 107
Melbourne 12 126
----
Port Adelaide 12 111
North Melbourne 12 108
Essendon 12 104
Adelaide 12 101
Fremantle 8 80
Western Bulldogs 8 76
Brisbane 6 93
St Kilda 4.5 75
Gold Coast 4 60
Carlton 2 61

This will finish the season brutally for some team. My computer predicts that Port and Melbourne will both lose their last two matches.

West Coast: Melbourne (h), Brisbane (a). Clear for top two unless they lose both.
GWS: Sydney, Melbourne (a). Two tough matches - a loss in either wmight drop them out of the top four.
Hawthorn: St Kilda, Sydney (h). Shouldn't lose to St Kilda, but Sydney's form is all over the place - who knows?
Collingwood: Port Adelaide (h), Fremantle (a). Should beat both, although Port will be fighting with their season on the line, and Fremantle have pulled off upsets at home this year.

That's three teams in fragile positions fighting for two spots the top four.

Geelong: Fremantle (h), Gold Coast (h). Two bankable wins, surely. Assuming they don't utensil these up, they can only miss the finals if Port win both their remaining matches, and Melbourne and Sydney win at least one each.
Sydney: GWS, Hawthorn (a). Not favoured to win either, but Sydney are impossible to predict this year. In any case, 13 wins in the bank leaves them likely for the finals. Two wins would put them in the top four, dragging down both Hawthorn and GWS.
Melbourne: West Coast (a), GWS (h). Two very tough matches, and if they win neither, missing the finals is possible. (A very small part of my evil self is barracking for this outcome).
Port Adelaide: Collingwood (a), Essendon (h). Neither match is easy, and losing both could see Port missing the finals.
North Melbourne: Adelaide (a), St Kilda (h). Should beat St Kilda, but will need to beat Adelaide as well to figure in finals calculations. And then their mediocre percentage will be a hindrance even if they can win both.
Essendon: Richmond, Port Adelaide (a). Two tough matches, and Essendon will need to win both to even be a chance of making the finals.
Adelaide: North Melbourne (h), Carlton (a). Will likely win both, but draw a line through them unless they win both by 100 points. And probably no chance even then.

 

[Forward Press]

West Coast: Melbourne (h), Brisbane (a). A very plausible loss to either might leave West Coast struggling on percentage to make the top four.

If we win one we cannot miss top four - in fact one win also cements top two.

Would need to lose both, plus two of GWS, Hawthorn and Collingwood to win both their games. Our percentage should be enough vs Sydney.

 

[RookiePick]

If we win one we cannot miss top four - in fact one win also cements top two.

Would need to lose both, plus two of GWS, Hawthorn and Collingwood to win both their games. Our percentage should be enough vs Sydney.

Port improved in the rating system despite losing at home. I'd suggest it is going to spit out some odd scenarios on that basis.

 

[RookiePick]

Oh bugger. Deleted his post before i quoted.

 

[Hobbes]

If we win one we cannot miss top four - in fact one win also cements top two.

Would need to lose both, plus two of GWS, Hawthorn and Collingwood to win both their games. Our percentage should be enough vs Sydney.

Fixed. For some reason, my brain decided that they were only one win ahead of the pack.

 

[Hobbes]

Port improved in the rating system despite losing at home. I'd suggest it is going to spit out some odd scenarios on that basis.

Port went from +6 to +3.7

 

[Forward Press]

Port improved in the rating system despite losing at home. I'd suggest it is going to spit out some odd scenarios on that basis.

Squiggle predicted Port by 6, they have slipped back as see above.

The kick by McGovern has basically made us more likely more than not to have two home finals. I'd imagine the motivation of locking it in will make sure we don't take Melbourne for granted.

I think Melbourne have the toughest run home and if they miss finals from where they were halfway through the year it would be demoralising.

 

[RookiePick]

I misinterpreted how the data was posted. Apologies to Hobbes

 

[Forward Press]

I misinterpreted how the data was posted. Apologies to Hobbes

Stop being so apologetic and start being arrogant like a good West Coast fan.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

It's being played in Melbourne for starters

It's interesting to note we haven't been beaten in Melbourne this year.

 

[Gralin]

It's interesting to note we haven't been beaten in Melbourne this year.

You beat the Pies in round 2, drew with St Kilda in round 5 and beat the Blues in Round 20 yes so no losses but that's one game at the G so far this year and two at the docklands

Dees at the G would get a HGA against you on the Squiggle was my point, not to mention the Squiggle still rates them a little higher than you

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

You beat the Pies in round 2, drew with St Kilda in round 5 and beat the Blues in Round 20 yes so no losses but that's one game at the G so far this year and two at the docklands

Dees at the G would get a HGA against you on the Squiggle was my point, not to mention the Squiggle still rates them a little higher than you

I get the squiggle thing, and am cool with it, and probably should have used a smiley. Their percentage is of a very good side. I recall everyone saying similar things about the Tigers last year as they are about the Demons this year.
I just dont beleive the G will beat us, the Demons might.

 

[Suma Magic]

Interesting that West Coast and GWS are undefeated in Victoria this year.

 

[HTT]

Interesting that West Coast and GWS are undefeated in Victoria this year.

You forgot Richmond

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Interesting that West Coast and GWS are undefeated in Victoria this year.

Actually not quite. We got smashed down in Geelong.

 

[Suma Magic]

You forgot Richmond

Haha I wouldn't say it's interesting that the Tigers haven't lost. You guys are a step above the rest.

If we faced you in perth in the finals I'd back us for a 1 goal win. If we faced you at the G I'd back you for a 7 goal win.

Actually not quite. We got smashed down in Geelong.

Haha whoops... Change it to Melbourne.

 

[woosha24]

If we win one we cannot miss top four - in fact one win also cements top two.

If we win one of the next two games, we guarantee Top 2.

Let that sink in. Who'da thunk!?

 

[Roobs321]

Interesting that West Coast and GWS are undefeated in Victoria this year.

Their being undefeated in Melbourne has the makings of an encouraging Grand Final week narrative before the big day letdown. Hopefully not, but could see that stat getting some hype traction and belief during the week and then the Vic team winning comfortably yet again.

 

[wowlace]

Squiggle is still bullish on the Dees making finals. Squiggle about to look a fool.

 

[Hobbes]

Squiggle is still bullish on the Dees making finals. Squiggle about to look a fool.

The squiggle doesn't understand that the club is cursed.

 

[wowlace]

The squiggle doesn't understand that the club is cursed.

This is why we shouldn't * with AI.

 

[whatis]

Potentially some huge movement this week if Eagles get up, considering both teams so far apart?

 

[Gydafud]

Where is Geelongs stupid sideways movement? Are 3 less scoring shots really the difference in defensive movement?

 

[RookiePick]

Where is Geelongs stupid sideways movement? Are 3 less scoring shots really the difference in defensive movement?

Algorithm gonna algorithm it seems.