This weeks odds and tips

[FishingRick04]

Thought I would try an odd's overview for all games and give my "expert" tip. (Notice Expert is in quotations) there will be better tipsters than I so feel free to add input into this. I put it in my club forum however not much interest there.

Adelaide V ST Kilda

• Odds: Adelaide $1.55 St Kil $2.55
• Line is 10.5 pts and $1.90
• Adelaide Under 39.5 pts $2.20 over 39.5 pts $4.40
• St Kilda Under 39.5 pts $2.90 over $11.00

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1991 Adelaide 16 St Kilda 12,
• last five games 2 to 3, at this venue 9 to 3

• Biggest winning margin Adelaide 97 St Kilda 131

The stats that matter are here http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My tips
St Kilda play AAMI like Dogs, (well especially against Port) but against a well drilled Adelaide I just can't see them winning, but I can't see Adelaide winning by too much agains't a defensive St Kilda. So I would take Adelaide under 39.5 pts at $2.20

Geelong V Richmond

• Geelong $1.05 Richmond $8.50
• Line is 44.5 pts and $1.90
• Geelong Under 39.5 pts $2.70 over 39.5 pts $1.62
• Richmond Under 39.5 pts $9.00 over $41.00

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1980 Geelong 36 Richmond 14,
• last five games 4 to 1, at this venue 15 to 3

• Biggest winning margin Geelong 157 Richmond 84

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

LOL what is there to say Richmond smashed by Carlton, thanks for that Terry, Geelong were solid. But I'm going with a smoky value bet, Geelong to win under 39.5 pts.

Collingwood V Melbourne

• Collingwood $1.15 Melbourne $5.00
• Line is 32.5 pts and $1.90
• Collingwood Under 39.5 pts $2.30 over 39.5 pts $2.10
• Melbourne Under 39.5 pts $6.00 over $23.00

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1980 Collingwood 24 Melbourne 22,
• last five games 2 to 3, at this venue 18 to 14

• Biggest winning margin Collingwood 107 Melbourne 65

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=3&Team2ID=13&Go=Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

Collingwood over 39.5 pts

Carlton V Brisbane

Carlton $1.28 Brisbane $3.45
Line is 23.5 pts and $1.90
Carlton Under 39.5 pts $2.20over 39.5 pts $2.60
Brisbane Under 39.5 pts $4.50 over $15.00

Recent History

• Head to head since 1997 Carlton 7 Brisbane Lions 10,
• last five games 1 to 4, at this venue 0 to 3

• Biggest winning margin Carlton 82 Brisbane Lions 117

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

Don't like this game at all, too close to call. Carlton are over rated after the last week and I feel Brisbane could do anything each week. The highlight results show Brisbanes recent history and at the venue is good, but I will put my neck on the line with Carlton under 39.5 pts in a high scoring affair.


Sydney V Hawthorn

Sydney$2.80 Hawthorn $1.40
Line is 16.5 pts and $1.90
Sydney Under 39.5 pts $3.40 over 39.5 pts $12.00
Hawthorn Under 39.5 pts $2.25 over $3.25

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1980 Sydney 18 Hawthorn 31,
• last five games 4 to 1

• Biggest winning margin Sydney 84 Hawthorn 99

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My tip:

Sydney will be smarting, Hawthorn were valiant last week but I am tipping an upset, Sydney to win under 39.5pts, never write Sydney off and Hawthorn are still under done.

Essendon V Fremantle

Essendon $1.72 Fremantle $2.05
Line is 6.5 pts and $1.90
Essendon Under 39.5 pts $2.30 over 39.5 pts $5.75
Fremantle Under 39.5 pts $2.60 over $7.50

Recent History

• Head to head since 1995 Essendon 15 Fremantle 6
• last five games 3 to 2, at this venue 7 to 0

• Biggest winning margin Essendon 87 Fremantle 97

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip

Essendon weren't that bad last week and Freeo weren't that good. Freeo's history at this Venue against the Bombers is woeful, so the Bombers to win at $1.72 no margin.

Bulldogs V North Melbourne

Bulldogs $1.50 North $2.45
Line is 13.5 pts and $1.90
Bulldogs Under 39.5 pts $2.25 over 39.5 pts $3.75
North Under 39.5 pts $3.10 over $11.00

Recent History

• Head to head since 1980 Bulldogs 19 North Melbourne 30,
• last five games 0 to 5, at this venue 7 to 9

• Biggest winning margin Western Bulldogs 63 North Melbourne 131

Stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

Everyone always under estimates North and the Dog's are travelling back from Perth after a hard running game. The Kanga's aren't as bad as people suggest and I think with their talls they will have the goods over the Dog's as their recent history suggests. North for the win straight out.


West Coast V Port

Eagles $2.35 Port $1.55
Line is 10.5 pts and $1.90
Eagles Under 39.5 pts $3.00 over 39.5 pts $9.00
Port Under 39.5 pts $2.30 over $4.00

Recent History

• Head to head since 1997 West Coast 5 Port Adelaide 12,
• last five games 1 to 4, at this venue 4 to 5

• Biggest winning margin West Coast 117 Port Adelaide 112

Stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames....Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:
Port are too strong favourites here but I do think they will win but it will be closer than the punters think. Port under 39.5 pts for mine.

 

[tarky]

nice post fishing...must've taken ages!

my best bets of the round are.....

st kilda +24.5 @ $1.40

melbourne +39.5 @ $1.75

brisbane +24.5 @ $1.75 (best bet of the round)

sydney +39.5 @ $1.30

north melbourne +39.5 @ $1.27

multi all those up for a return of around 7/1 or 8/1

 

[FishingRick04]

nice post fishing...must've taken ages!

my best bets of the round are.....

st kilda +24.5 @ $1.40

melbourne +39.5 @ $1.75

brisbane +24.5 @ $1.75 (best bet of the round)

sydney +39.5 @ $1.30

north melbourne +39.5 @ $1.27

multi all those up for a return of around 7/1 or 8/1

Cheers it did, I thought it may have got more interest, obviously I should have titled it odds on Brogan the Dog and it would have got 10,000 hits.

 

[DamoESP]

Nice outlines of the games with tips/odds mate, cheers

 

[FishingRick04]

Nice outlines of the games with tips/odds mate, cheers

So what's your bet of the round? I am gonna put $2 on all my tips and I'll post my return on Monday (hopefully +ve) lol

 

[jaxmachine1007]

brisbane is also best bet of the round for me

 

[DamoESP]

So what's your bet of the round? I am gonna put $2 on all my tips and I'll post my return on Monday (hopefully +ve) lol

haha no bet on this round for me yet..I might put $10 down on Brisbane incase they beat my lot because bloody good return...(either way I win..haha)

 

[nobbyiscool]

great post that... hope to see more throughout the season.

for me, brissie and carlton is a 50/50 game. carlton played a crap team last week, whereas brisbane were tested. i don't think carlton can hold bradshaw and brown (to the extent where i would've loved to have seen cornelius included as well), so if midfield is even, it's all brisbane i reckon.

i've tipped brissie, and at $3.25, which is what i got them at, they were too good to refuse. i even had a sneaky bet at them over 39.5 at $15

the other bet of the round is the kangaroos i reckon. great record against the dogs, and at around $2.75 they represent some great value.

i'm disappointed that hawthorn are playing sydney... against a top 8 contender, hawthorn still would've gone in favourites. but against a top 8 contender i reckon they're ripe for the picking. unfortunately, sydney can't beat em i don't think

 

[FishingRick04]

great post that... hope to see more throughout the season.

for me, brissie and carlton is a 50/50 game. carlton played a crap team last week, whereas brisbane were tested. i don't think carlton can hold bradshaw and brown (to the extent where i would've loved to have seen cornelius included as well), so if midfield is even, it's all brisbane i reckon.

i've tipped brissie, and at $3.25, which is what i got them at, they were too good to refuse. i even had a sneaky bet at them over 39.5 at $15

the other bet of the round is the kangaroos i reckon. great record against the dogs, and at around $2.75 they represent some great value.

i'm disappointed that hawthorn are playing sydney... against a top 8 contender, hawthorn still would've gone in favourites. but against a top 8 contender i reckon they're ripe for the picking. unfortunately, sydney can't beat em i don't think

Thanks, I'll do it weekly, maybe expand it too, I was just testing the waters

I don't know Sydney are looking ok to me, I picked em

 

[nobbyiscool]

had my value bet in the wrong place

 

[FishingRick04]

This weeks odds and tips rnd 3

Rnd 2 in review
I tipped 5 from 8 with Adelaide, Port and North letting me down, but 5 good predictions helps, good on ya Sydney So for my $16 invested my return would have been $24.64 (leaving me up $8.64), can I do the good this week to help us out.

My site I use dropped out, so when it's up I'll edit and update forthe final games.


Geelong V Collingwood

• Odds: Geelong $1.30 Collingwood $3.30
• Line is 15.5 pts and $1.14 Collingwood $2.25
• Geelong Under 39.5 pts $2.25 over 39.5 pts $2.75
• Collingwood Under 39.5 pts $4.00 over $15.00

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1980 Geelong 22 Collingwood 25,
• last five games 2 to 3,
• at this venue 9 to 7

The stats that matter are here:
http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=4&Team2ID=3&Go=Go#PlayerLast5

My tips

Collingwood bounced back well against a raw Mlebourne and Geelong struggled at home against a Tiger outfit trying to prove a point. Injuries are starting to hit the respected Geelong machine especially in the back half. I think Collingwood can get the chocolates, my bet straight out for $3.30.

St Kilda V West Coast

• Saints $1.30 West Coast $3.30
• Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1.14 & $2.25
• Saints Under 39.5 pts $2.25 over 39.5 pts $2.75
• West Coast Under 39.5 pts $4.00 over $15.00

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1987 St Kilda 13 West Coast 21,
• last five games 1 to 4,
• at this venue 3 to 4.

The stats that matter
http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=12&Team2ID=10&Go=Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

West Coast tore my woeful boys a new one, much to my disgust whereas the umpires stole the show for the Saints, tarnishing their excellent win away against the Crows, much to my tipping disgust. Saints will be too strong here and are building momentum. Saints over 39 pts @ $2.75

Brisbane V Sydney

• Brisbane $1.45 Sydney $2.65
• Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1.27 & $1.80
• Brisbane Under 39.5 pts $2.25 over 39.5 pts $3.50
• Sydney Under 39.5 pts $3.25 over $11.00

Recent History:

• Head to head since 1997 Brisbane Lions 9 Sydney 13,
• last five games 0 to 5,
• at this venue 4 to 6.

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=2&Team2ID=15&Go=Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

I like Sydney this game. They showed last week they still have it and their mature bodies will be too hard for the younger Brisbane side, bit of an upset, Sydney straight out at $2.65

Carlton V Essendon
Carlton $1.22 Essendon $4.00
Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1.11 & $2.60
Carlton Under 39.5 pts $2.20 over 39.5 pts $2.50
Essendon Under 39.5 pts $4.75 over $17.00

Recent History

• Head to head since 1980 Carlton 24 Essendon 37,
• last five games 1 to 4,
• at this venue 14 to 22.

The stats that matter http://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=14&Team2ID=5&Go=Go#PlayerLast5

My Tip:

No more to be said, Carlton revival continues, Carlton over 39.5 pts @ $2.50





Port V Melbourne
Port $1.15 Melbourne $5.00
Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1..06 & $3.30
Port Under 39.5 pts $2.10 over 39.5 pts $2.30
Melbourne Under 39.5 pts $6.00 over $21.00

Recent History:


The stats that matter link no available

My tip:
Sorry Melbourne Port in a canter, Port at $2.30 over 29.5 pts

Bulldogs V Richmond

Dogs $1.30 Rich $3.30
Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1.28 & 2.75
Dogs Under 39.5 pts $2.20 over 39.5 pts $3.85
Rich Under 39.5 pts $3.10 over $11.00

Recent History


The stats that matter link dropped

My Tip

Bulldogs easy, dogs over 39.5 pts @ $3.85




Freeo V Adelaide

Freeo $1.90 Adelaide $1.90
Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1.48
Freeo Under 39.5 pts $2.35 over 39.5 pts $7.50
Adelaide Under 39.5 pts $2.35 over $7.50

Recent History

Stats that matter

My Tip:
I like this game. Bookies are giving Freeo to much credit, yes Adelaide has lost Bock the basher, Knights the can't kicker and Hanthcel my knees are stuffed, but they can be replaced easily with Stevens, Gill and Shirley. I like Adelaide over 39.5 pts @ $7.50

Kanga's V Hawks

Kanga's $2.50 Hawks $1.50
Pts Start is 15.5 pts and $1.28 & $1.75
Kanga's Under 39.5 pts $3.10over 39.5 pts $11.00Hawks Under 39.5 pts $2.20 over $3.85

Recent History

site dropped sorry

Stats that matter link dropped


tip

Hawks are a rabble due to injuries and suspensions. Kanga's who knows where they are, nice rivalry here. I'm going North staright out at $2.50

For some variety I like Port for the highest scoring team this round at $5.00, Sydney at $2.80 to make the 8 & Port at $3.80 to be the highest no vic team.


Good luck and I hope this helps,

 

[nobbyiscool]

Re: This weeks odds and tips rnd 3

great write up again... and i'm going to make a big call.

this might be the best betting round i've ever seen in the 2 and a bit years that i've been interested in footy betting.

why?

cos there are a lot of veeeery juicy priced outsiders that i think are better chances than their price suggests.

collingwood have a great record against geelong. at over $3, that is an amazing price

i don't rate st kilda. i know they've had 2 impressive matches but sorry, don't rate em. i think west coast could probably drift a bit - if they get outside about $3.50, they're worth getting on.

after last week's matches i cant believe sydney are so long against brisbane. i think brissie have been pretty average this year. i don't think sydney are any good (and i should've trusted my gut against whoever was playing hawthorn last week) but they are paying great odds.

i'm surprised that hawthorn are such big favourites over the kangaroos. winning for is good form, and current form is all that matters. the kangaroos have been good, hawthorn have been a bit crap. i'm going to be all over hawthorn.

probably no point putting a 4 game multi on for 4 outsiders - but i'll certainly be doing some combinations of them.

 

[FishingRick04]

Re: This weeks odds and tips rnd 3

great write up again... and i'm going to make a big call.

this might be the best betting round i've ever seen in the 2 and a bit years that i've been interested in footy betting.

why?

cos there are a lot of veeeery juicy priced outsiders that i think are better chances than their price suggests.

collingwood have a great record against geelong. at over $3, that is an amazing price

i don't rate st kilda. i know they've had 2 impressive matches but sorry, don't rate em. i think west coast could probably drift a bit - if they get outside about $3.50, they're worth getting on.

after last week's matches i cant believe sydney are so long against brisbane. i think brissie have been pretty average this year. i don't think sydney are any good (and i should've trusted my gut against whoever was playing hawthorn last week) but they are paying great odds.

i'm surprised that hawthorn are such big favourites over the kangaroos. winning for is good form, and current form is all that matters. the kangaroos have been good, hawthorn have been a bit crap. i'm going to be all over hawthorn.

probably no point putting a 4 game multi on for 4 outsiders - but i'll certainly be doing some combinations of them.

I like three outsiders, but St Kil will beat your boys sorry that is the real roughie pick I reckon.

Sydney, North and Collingwood are all legit challengers however, at very very good odds.

Thanks for the compliment

 

[tarky]

Re: This weeks odds and tips rnd 3

the eagles own st kilda recently and they looked good last week + it's Tyson Stenglein's 200th.....they'll be pumped for this

eagles straight out @ $3.35
and a bit on the eagles over 24.5 @ $7.50

 

[sexualninja]

Question is....do you think Port can put around 40pts on Melbourne??

So tempting to go the top margin as the odds are decent but I dont know too much about Port and Motlop is out this round???

 

[nobbyiscool]

i wouldn't be putting money on port over 39.5... port are a good team at really putting sides away, and melbourne do suck... but they're improving, and last week they showed some heart.

having said that... $7.50 is a good price...

yeah, ok, i'm not help there!

 

[nobbyiscool]

well, i hope u got on port at over 39.5!

i haven't had a great weekend of picking outsiders... collingwood, west coast and sydney all bombed. the last minute pick to get essendon under 39.5 paid off hansomly... i'll almost break even for the weekend... now for the bunnies to win in the nrl tonight, i've had a handsome multi pay off!

 

[nobbyiscool]

disappointing to see rick not give us his thoughts this week, but i thought it was becoming a good enough feature of BF to sub in for this week...

(odds are from sportsbet as at 6.30pm Friday)

Brisbane v Collingwood @ Gabba - 17-4-2009 19:40AEST

Head to Head: Brisbane $1.52 Collingwood $2.60
Line is at 12.5 points and paying $1.92 either side
Brisbane under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $4.50
Collingwood under 39.5 $3 over 39.5 $9

Always hard to pick a winner in this game - a rich history, and always substories pushed for these matches. Whilst Brisbane have been in better form and have looked good at the Gabba this year, Collingwood are never to be written off, especially against Brisbane. A sneaky bet at Collingwood might pay off...


Sydney v Carlton @ SCG - 18-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Sydney $2.30 Carlton $1.65
Line is at 8.5 and paying $1.92 either side
Sydney under 39.5 $2.75 over 39.5 $9
Carlton under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $5.75

I won't be going near this game... I wouldn't back Sydney, but after a loss last week, and with the game at the SCG - a ground Sydney play well - I wouldn't be putting money on Carlton. Punt at your own peril.


Hawthorn v Port Adelaide @ MCG - 18-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.29 Port Adelaide $3.70
Line is at 23.5 and paying $1.92 either side
Hawthorn under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $2.75
Port Adelaide under 39.5 $4.25 over 39.5 $17

I don't Port have got a prayer in this game. And if I were a bigger punter than what I am, it'd be worth putting money on them because $1.29 is pretty good for as sure a bet as you're likely to find. For me, there's no value in it though.


St Kilda v Fremantle @ Docklands - 18-4-2009 19:10AEST

Head to Head: St Kilda $1.11 Fremantle $7
Line is 40.5 and paying $1.92 either side
St Kilda under 39.5 $2.40 over 39.5 $1.90
Fremantle under 39.5 $7.50 over 39.5 $26

I smell an upset. I've got a terrible feeling about this game. St Kilda are the type of team that lose games that they shouldn't. And Fremantle are the type that win games that they shouldn't. I'm having a sneaky bet on Freo here... but as always, only bet what you can afford to lose! I don't expect it to be a succesful bet - not by a long shot. But that's why it's called gambling.


Adelaide v Geelong @ AAMI Stadium - 18-4-2009 19:40AEST

Head to Head: Adelaide $3.45 Geelong $1.33
Line is 21.5 and is paying $1.92 either side
Adelaide under 39.5 $4.50 over 39.5 $17
Geelong under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $2.75

I reckon Adelaide are ok. I reckon Geelong, even without having hit their straps, are awesome. So I'm not confident either way here. The punt on this game is at the line i reckon... I'd be tempted to take Adelaide with a 21 point start.


North Melbourne v Essendon @ Docklands - 19-4-2009 13:10AEST

Head to Head: North Melbourne $2.05 Essendon $1.80
Betting started even here, so no line
North Melbourne under 39.5 $2.50 over 39.5 $7
Essendon under 39.5 $2.35 over 39.5 $6.75

I'm sure everyone whose just in a casual tipping competition struggled with this game as well - very, very hard to pick. However if North manage to play their best, I reckon they're a better team. A considerably better team. I know Essendon had a great win last week, but I don't think the fact that it was against Carlton should not be underestimated. I'm punting gutsy an taking North over 39.5 in this match.


Richmond v Melbourne @ MCG - 19-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Richmond $1.35 Melbourne $3.30
Line is 20.5 at $1.92 either side
Richmond under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $3
Melbourne under 39.5 $3.75 over 39.5 $15

The analysis is quick on this one - I wouldn't back either team with ba money.

West Coast Eagles v Western Bulldogs @ Subiaco - 19-4-2009 16:40AEST

Head to Head: West Coast Eagles $2.80 Western Bulldogs $1.45
Line is 13.5 at $1.92 either side
Eagles under 39.5 $3.60 over 39.5 $11
Bulldogs under 39.5 $2.25 over 39.5 $3.25

I reckon West Coast are a chance here. I know they were beyond deplorable last week. I know Bulldogs are 3-0. BUT - West Coast were very good for 7 of their first 8 quarters this season. The Bulldogs were terrible last week. They were average the week before - only really getting above mediocre at the end of the match... admittedly, they lifted when it mattered. On top of that, the dogs will not be used to the hot conditions, they've had a 6 day break vs West Coast's 8 day break, and it's obviously the dogs second trip west this season. Having said that - I thought I'd get better odds that $2.80! I'll be keeping an eye on it... if the Eagles under 39.5 gets out closer to $4, I'll get on it.

For the sportsbet specials for round 4:

Highest Winning Margin
St Kilda 2.50
Geelong 6.00
Hawthorn 6.00
Richmond 7.00
Western Bulldogs 7.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 13.00
North Melbourne 15.00
Essendon 21.00
Sydney 23.00
Collingwood 26.00
Melbourne 51.00
Port Adelaide 51.00
West Coast 51.00
Adelaide 67.00
Fremantle 201.00


Lowest Scoring Team
Fremantle 4.50
Adelaide 5.50
Melbourne 7.00
Port Adelaide 8.00
Sydney 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
West Coast 13.00
Brisbane 15.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 21.00
Geelong 23.00
Hawthorn 23.00
North Melbourne 23.00
Richmond 26.00
Western Bulldogs 41.00
St Kilda 51.00


Highest Score For Round
St Kilda 4.00
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Hawthorn 8.00
North Melbourne 8.00
Brisbane 11.00
Essendon 11.00
Geelong 11.00
Richmond 11.00
Carlton 13.00
Collingwood 21.00
Sydney 21.00
West Coast 23.00
Melbourne 41.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Adelaide 67.00
Fremantle 101.00


Most Possessions for Round
Gary Ablett 6.50
Kane Cornes 8.00
Daniel Cross 9.00
Dane Swan 9.00
Nick Dal Santo 9.00
Sam Mitchell 10.00
Luke Power 11.00
Chris Judd 11.00
Jobe Watson 13.00
Adam Simpson 15.00
Cameron Bruce 15.00
Shane Tuck 15.00
Tyson Edwards 15.00
Daniel Kerr 17.00
Rhys Palmer 21.00
Jude Bolton 21.00


Leading Goal Kicker for Round
Lance Franklin 4.00
Brendan Fevola 5.00
Daniel Bradshaw 5.00
Matthew Lloyd 10.00
Matthew Pavlich 13.00
Nick Riewoldt 15.00
Daniel Motlop 17.00
Barry Hall 17.00
Steve Johnson 17.00
John Anthony 17.00
Matthew Richardson 17.00
Brad Johnson 17.00
Mark Lecras 17.00
Jason Porplyzia 26.00
Drew Petrie 34.00
Brad Green 34.00


These specials are a bit of a waste of time - i only listed them for interests sake.

anyway, to summarise - not a great punting week! my advice? look at the nrl this week!

And after 30 minutes compiling this, i can understand why rick didn't do it this week. i hope you're back next week pal.

 

[adii_7]

St Kilda v Fremantle @ Docklands - 18-4-2009 19:10AEST

Head to Head: St Kilda $1.11 Fremantle $7
Line is 40.5 and paying $1.92 either side
St Kilda under 39.5 $2.40 over 39.5 $1.90
Fremantle under 39.5 $7.50 over 39.5 $26

I smell an upset. I've got a terrible feeling about this game. St Kilda are the type of team that lose games that they shouldn't. And Fremantle are the type that win games that they shouldn't. I'm having a sneaky bet on Freo here... but as always, only bet what you can afford to lose! I don't expect it to be a succesful bet - not by a long shot. But that's why it's called gambling.

there is no way, NO WAY at all fremantle can win this game. Its not possible for them. St Kilda will win by 95.

 

[tarky]

yeah....this would be the upset of the century

 

[nobbyiscool]

Brisbane v Collingwood @ Gabba - 17-4-2009 19:40AEST

Head to Head: Brisbane $1.52 Collingwood $2.60
Line is at 12.5 points and paying $1.92 either side
Brisbane under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $4.50
Collingwood under 39.5 $3 over 39.5 $9

Always hard to pick a winner in this game - a rich history, and always substories pushed for these matches. Whilst Brisbane have been in better form and have looked good at the Gabba this year, Collingwood are never to be written off, especially against Brisbane. A sneaky bet at Collingwood might pay off...

inspired...

Sydney v Carlton @ SCG - 18-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Sydney $2.30 Carlton $1.65
Line is at 8.5 and paying $1.92 either side
Sydney under 39.5 $2.75 over 39.5 $9
Carlton under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $5.75

I won't be going near this game... I wouldn't back Sydney, but after a loss last week, and with the game at the SCG - a ground Sydney play well - I wouldn't be putting money on Carlton. Punt at your own peril.

very wise...

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide @ MCG - 18-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.29 Port Adelaide $3.70
Line is at 23.5 and paying $1.92 either side
Hawthorn under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $2.75
Port Adelaide under 39.5 $4.25 over 39.5 $17

I don't Port have got a prayer in this game. And if I were a bigger punter than what I am, it'd be worth putting money on them because $1.29 is pretty good for as sure a bet as you're likely to find. For me, there's no value in it though.

just as well i'm not a big punter prepared to put a grand on them!

 

[FishingRick04]

disappointing to see rick not give us his thoughts this week, but i thought it was becoming a good enough feature of BF to sub in for this week...

(odds are from sportsbet as at 6.30pm Friday)

Brisbane v Collingwood @ Gabba - 17-4-2009 19:40AEST

Head to Head: Brisbane $1.52 Collingwood $2.60
Line is at 12.5 points and paying $1.92 either side
Brisbane under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $4.50
Collingwood under 39.5 $3 over 39.5 $9

Always hard to pick a winner in this game - a rich history, and always substories pushed for these matches. Whilst Brisbane have been in better form and have looked good at the Gabba this year, Collingwood are never to be written off, especially against Brisbane. A sneaky bet at Collingwood might pay off...


Sydney v Carlton @ SCG - 18-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Sydney $2.30 Carlton $1.65
Line is at 8.5 and paying $1.92 either side
Sydney under 39.5 $2.75 over 39.5 $9
Carlton under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $5.75

I won't be going near this game... I wouldn't back Sydney, but after a loss last week, and with the game at the SCG - a ground Sydney play well - I wouldn't be putting money on Carlton. Punt at your own peril.


Hawthorn v Port Adelaide @ MCG - 18-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.29 Port Adelaide $3.70
Line is at 23.5 and paying $1.92 either side
Hawthorn under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $2.75
Port Adelaide under 39.5 $4.25 over 39.5 $17

I don't Port have got a prayer in this game. And if I were a bigger punter than what I am, it'd be worth putting money on them because $1.29 is pretty good for as sure a bet as you're likely to find. For me, there's no value in it though.


St Kilda v Fremantle @ Docklands - 18-4-2009 19:10AEST

Head to Head: St Kilda $1.11 Fremantle $7
Line is 40.5 and paying $1.92 either side
St Kilda under 39.5 $2.40 over 39.5 $1.90
Fremantle under 39.5 $7.50 over 39.5 $26

I smell an upset. I've got a terrible feeling about this game. St Kilda are the type of team that lose games that they shouldn't. And Fremantle are the type that win games that they shouldn't. I'm having a sneaky bet on Freo here... but as always, only bet what you can afford to lose! I don't expect it to be a succesful bet - not by a long shot. But that's why it's called gambling.


Adelaide v Geelong @ AAMI Stadium - 18-4-2009 19:40AEST

Head to Head: Adelaide $3.45 Geelong $1.33
Line is 21.5 and is paying $1.92 either side
Adelaide under 39.5 $4.50 over 39.5 $17
Geelong under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $2.75

I reckon Adelaide are ok. I reckon Geelong, even without having hit their straps, are awesome. So I'm not confident either way here. The punt on this game is at the line i reckon... I'd be tempted to take Adelaide with a 21 point start.


North Melbourne v Essendon @ Docklands - 19-4-2009 13:10AEST

Head to Head: North Melbourne $2.05 Essendon $1.80
Betting started even here, so no line
North Melbourne under 39.5 $2.50 over 39.5 $7
Essendon under 39.5 $2.35 over 39.5 $6.75

I'm sure everyone whose just in a casual tipping competition struggled with this game as well - very, very hard to pick. However if North manage to play their best, I reckon they're a better team. A considerably better team. I know Essendon had a great win last week, but I don't think the fact that it was against Carlton should not be underestimated. I'm punting gutsy an taking North over 39.5 in this match.


Richmond v Melbourne @ MCG - 19-4-2009 14:10AEST

Head to Head: Richmond $1.35 Melbourne $3.30
Line is 20.5 at $1.92 either side
Richmond under 39.5 $2.20 over 39.5 $3
Melbourne under 39.5 $3.75 over 39.5 $15

The analysis is quick on this one - I wouldn't back either team with ba money.

West Coast Eagles v Western Bulldogs @ Subiaco - 19-4-2009 16:40AEST

Head to Head: West Coast Eagles $2.80 Western Bulldogs $1.45
Line is 13.5 at $1.92 either side
Eagles under 39.5 $3.60 over 39.5 $11
Bulldogs under 39.5 $2.25 over 39.5 $3.25

I reckon West Coast are a chance here. I know they were beyond deplorable last week. I know Bulldogs are 3-0. BUT - West Coast were very good for 7 of their first 8 quarters this season. The Bulldogs were terrible last week. They were average the week before - only really getting above mediocre at the end of the match... admittedly, they lifted when it mattered. On top of that, the dogs will not be used to the hot conditions, they've had a 6 day break vs West Coast's 8 day break, and it's obviously the dogs second trip west this season. Having said that - I thought I'd get better odds that $2.80! I'll be keeping an eye on it... if the Eagles under 39.5 gets out closer to $4, I'll get on it.

For the sportsbet specials for round 4:

Highest Winning Margin
St Kilda 2.50
Geelong 6.00
Hawthorn 6.00
Richmond 7.00
Western Bulldogs 7.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 13.00
North Melbourne 15.00
Essendon 21.00
Sydney 23.00
Collingwood 26.00
Melbourne 51.00
Port Adelaide 51.00
West Coast 51.00
Adelaide 67.00
Fremantle 201.00


Lowest Scoring Team
Fremantle 4.50
Adelaide 5.50
Melbourne 7.00
Port Adelaide 8.00
Sydney 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
West Coast 13.00
Brisbane 15.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 21.00
Geelong 23.00
Hawthorn 23.00
North Melbourne 23.00
Richmond 26.00
Western Bulldogs 41.00
St Kilda 51.00


Highest Score For Round
St Kilda 4.00
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Hawthorn 8.00
North Melbourne 8.00
Brisbane 11.00
Essendon 11.00
Geelong 11.00
Richmond 11.00
Carlton 13.00
Collingwood 21.00
Sydney 21.00
West Coast 23.00
Melbourne 41.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Adelaide 67.00
Fremantle 101.00


Most Possessions for Round
Gary Ablett 6.50
Kane Cornes 8.00
Daniel Cross 9.00
Dane Swan 9.00
Nick Dal Santo 9.00
Sam Mitchell 10.00
Luke Power 11.00
Chris Judd 11.00
Jobe Watson 13.00
Adam Simpson 15.00
Cameron Bruce 15.00
Shane Tuck 15.00
Tyson Edwards 15.00
Daniel Kerr 17.00
Rhys Palmer 21.00
Jude Bolton 21.00


Leading Goal Kicker for Round
Lance Franklin 4.00
Brendan Fevola 5.00
Daniel Bradshaw 5.00
Matthew Lloyd 10.00
Matthew Pavlich 13.00
Nick Riewoldt 15.00
Daniel Motlop 17.00
Barry Hall 17.00
Steve Johnson 17.00
John Anthony 17.00
Matthew Richardson 17.00
Brad Johnson 17.00
Mark Lecras 17.00
Jason Porplyzia 26.00
Drew Petrie 34.00
Brad Green 34.00


These specials are a bit of a waste of time - i only listed them for interests sake.

anyway, to summarise - not a great punting week! my advice? look at the nrl this week!

And after 30 minutes compiling this, i can understand why rick didn't do it this week. i hope you're back next week pal.

Cheers mate, I was away the last two weeks, I will do one this week even though someone is blogging the same thing but not as good Plus I got hammered in round 3 lol wounded pride

I'll do it today, sorry for the abcense.