Top 4/Top 8 thread

[theyellowsash]

Geez going out on a limb with that prediction of the tigers sneaking into the 8....

Its probably the less likely outcome really though

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Starting to worry that we might not finish top four

 

[JT_the_Man]

Running through a quick ladder predictor it’s hard to see it changing too much. Richmond the obvious in, only question really for me is whether GWS can sneak in over the Swans... Which I doubt when comparing fixtures.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Over the last 5 years, form teams going into finals ended up winning the flag.

Bulldogs in 16 were that team. Their last month was very good with an excellent percentage for the last month.

Tigers in 17 were that team. Almost replicated the Doggies from the year before by becoming the form team from August.

18 Tigers had gone off the boil by years end.

19 & 20 were timed perfectly.

This year is way too early to tell how it will play out. I reckon 6 teams have put their hand up as real contenders. Very open season though and injuries will be key (as always).

It may well be a team out of the 4 wins it this year. And that team may not be the Tiges.

Agree. It really is about banking the wins the qualify, then resetting at Finals. In the last three 3peats of you guys, Hawthorn and Brisbane, those sides rarely won the minor premiership.

 

[Bipolar Bear]

might be a chance to lose another final

 

[Swanks McSwankserton]

Agree. It really is about banking the wins the qualify, then resetting at Finals. In the last three 3peats of you guys, Hawthorn and Brisbane, those sides rarely won the minor premiership.

We're actually in the league's longest ever streak of the minor premier not winning the major premiership (2014-), proper curse now I reckon

 

[Roobs321]

I think the top 4 is set and 9th will be brutal for whoever gets it. 10th and beyond can start booking holidays, just not a sneak in sort of year.

 

[Roobs321]

Last round:

GWS v Richmond (nsw)
Western Derby

 

[juss]

The critical games for us are Eagles, Cats, Lions, Giants. These decide if we make top 4 or top 6 home finals as the others we should win most.

Unluckily for us it looks like we will get the Eagles with key players back in Perth, that's probably the hardest of the lot for us.

 

[Vaccination]

The critical games for us are Eagles, Cats, Lions, Giants. These decide if we make top 4 or top 6 home finals as the others we should win most.

Unluckily for us it looks like we will get the Eagles with key players back in Perth, that's probably the hardest of the lot for us.

Reckon we might end up being the easiest game out of the lot for you guys. Cats, Lions and Giants have all played you well already this season, while we will be coming off a bye with players who lack match fitness (Look at how Hurn and Ryan played this week).

 

[juss]

Reckon we might end up being the easiest game out of the lot for you guys. Cats, Lions and Giants have all played you well already this season, while we will be coming off a bye with players who lack match fitness (Look at how Hurn and Ryan played this week).

I dont know, you've always seemed to towell us over there. I'd much rather have caught you without Yeo and Shuey!

 

[Toffee Lion]

This needs a bump. While the top 5 look set in stone, the rest is wide open.

All three games tomorrow influencing the 8 quite heavily.

 

[Angus Young]

yep... top 4 down to:

dogs, dees, brisbane, port and cats

 

[JT_the_Man]

Somehow we’ve found ourselves in this conversation.

 

[Ambrosia]

I still don’t think we’re any good but jeez losing 3 games by under a goal. Could easily have been top 4 at this stage of the season.

 

[JayJ20]

Somehow we’ve found ourselves in this conversation.

We'd need to beat Richmond to be in the conversation. We still have Melbourne, Geelong at KP and Bulldogs to come. We're as good as gone if we lose all 4.

 

[The Prosecutor]

We'd need to beat Richmond to be in the conversation. We still have Melbourne, Geelong at KP and Bulldogs to come. We're as good as gone if we lose all 4.

Pending any fixture change, Essendon only have one more interstate match for the year and have a bunch of winnable games in the second half of the year. Still unlikely but we're all of a sudden in the picture.

Hawthorn @ MCG
Adelaide @ Marvel
North Melbourne @ Marvel
Sydney @ Marvel
GWS @ Marvel
Gold Coast @ Metricon
Collingwood @ MCG

 

[JT_the_Man]

We are on 5 wins with an ok percentage, next week against Richmond becomes massive.

In the last 10 after the bye we have matches against NM, Haw, and Coll which we’d be expected to win and all of Adel, Syd and GWS in Melbourne which are probably 50/50s and GC at Metricon which is 50/50, not giving us much hope against Geel, Dogs and Melb.

We will probably drop off at some stage being a young side so it’ll be a very difficult task but as of right now, we aren’t without a hope.

We'd need to beat Richmond to be in the conversation. We still have Melbourne, Geelong at KP and Bulldogs to come. We're as good as gone if we lose all 4.

Yeah, I don’t really think we are any serious chance, I only said it because we are currently 8th.

 

[FrankGrimes]

Yeah, I don’t really think we are any serious chance, I only said it because we are currently 8th.

If we win all games against the sides we should beat and lose against the top sides, think we finish on 12 wins, prob wont be enough.. in saying that we are likely to drop one or 2 games we should win.. if only we beat hawks round 1...

 

[Macca18]

Just to place the necessary counter to the other Essendon fans in this thread all of a sudden…

I don’t think we have to make the top 8 this year and actually think it will be really detrimental for us going forward. We don’t need another 10 goal Elimination Final loss to the likes of a Port Adelaide in Adelaide or a Richmond.

A lot of games to still play out in 2021 but I think we’ve seen enough to suggest that when/if we do contend for the 8 in coming years, it will be based on merit and not just a mediocre team sneaking in to get smashed in Week One.

I still think we will fall at least 2-3 games short this year anyway.

 

[JayJ20]

Pending any fixture change, Essendon only have one more interstate match for the year and have a bunch of winnable games in the second half of the year. Still unlikely but we're all of a sudden in the picture.

Hawthorn @ MCG
Adelaide @ Marvel
North Melbourne @ Marvel
Sydney @ Marvel
GWS @ Marvel
Gold Coast @ Metricon
Collingwood @ MCG

Assuming you'd need a record of 12-10 + decent percentage to make it, it's unlikely we lose only 4 games, especially if we lose next week.

Just to place the necessary counter to the other Essendon fans in this thread all of a sudden…

I don’t think we have to make the top 8 this year and actually think it will be really detrimental for us going forward. We don’t need another 10 goal Elimination Final loss to the likes of a Port Adelaide in Adelaide or a Richmond.

A lot of games to still play out in 2021 but I think we’ve seen enough to suggest that when/if we do contend for the 8 in coming years, it will be based on merit and not just a mediocre team sneaking in to get smashed in Week One.

I still think we will fall at least 2-3 games short this year anyway.

I don't think it'll be detrimental as long as everyone in the club knows we're still far away. I don't believe there's a lot of difference between pick 7 and pick 12, especially in a deep draft. It'll only become a problem if we throw away draft picks to chase players.

 

[nut]

Eagles looking shaky

 

[Yoda_]

Ben Dixon suggests Essendon could play finals

Doubt we do but nice to hear a pundit give us some kudos in the media


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[The Prosecutor]

Eagles looking shaky

Next four games are...

Carlton (A)
Richmond
Bulldogs
Sydney (A)

Followed by

North
Adelaide (A)
St Kilda
Collingwood (A)

Before finishing

Melbourne
Fremantle
Brisbane (A)

I think the next four games will decide their season. Let's assume five wins from the last two blocks of the season (losing to Melbourne and Brisbane), that leaves them on 11 wins. To be safe, they probably need 13 wins, so two of the next four games. They could quite possibly lose all four.

If they lose to Carlton next week, then they are well and truly at risk of missing the eight.

 

[nut]

Not if the virus has it's way.
Games still could be shifted to Perth.

Perth didn’t help them against the bombers