Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

[TBOW]

Yebiga & KDF have just summed up my stance on Macrae perfectly.
I'm surprised this conversation is even happening - I don't think I've ever seen a kid so composed in his first season.
Macrae also strikes me as the kind of player who will stand up under finals pressure, and I don't think there is a better measure for elite than that.
I think there is a little bit of over analysis going on...

 

[Interloper]

In looking at our recent draftees and their different attributes and accompanying speculation/analysis I'm reminded a little of Bart Cummings and what he said about So You Think when questioned about why he bought him at the yearling sales. "Any good judge of a horse couldn't miss him". Plenty did.
So many of our top end draftees (and others) appear to have plenty of development in them and plenty to offer and you wonder how some of these other clubs missed them. Anyway, as good as I'm sure they'll turn out to be individually, the whole will be greater........

 

[Chris Grant]

Changing focus a bit here.

Which player's are you not confident on being on the list at the end of the season?

I'd say these ones are the most likely in contention.

Easton Wood
Tom Williams
Jason Tutt
Daniel Pearce
Christian Howard
Daniel Giansiracusa - Retired
Ayce Cordy - (Still has another year on his contract after this one)
Brett Goodes

Redpath
Greenwood
Jong
Austin

 

[Ant_]

Should we create a 2014 thread now? or just rename this one?

 

[VitalDread]

Should we create a 2014 thread now? or just rename this one?

make three threads

 

[Ant_]

make three threads

As long as I don't merge anything. Don't want to get into trouble

 

[True Dog]

Changing focus a bit here.

Which player's are you not confident on being on the list at the end of the season?

I'd say these ones are the most likely in contention.

Easton Wood
Tom Williams
Jason Tutt
Daniel Pearce
Christian Howard
Daniel Giansiracusa - Retired
Ayce Cordy - (Still has another year on his contract after this one)
Brett Goodes

Redpath
Greenwood
Jong
Austin

I think Howard has the biggest target on his back, it's going to take one hell of a year from him if he's going to be saved. I fear for Pearce, we've drafted players smarter, faster and more skilled since and he really needs to show something to keep his spot. I think Goodes future will be determined by how many of our flanker types come on this season, he's 50/50 for mine. Williams is well and truly one injury away from having to step a side, yet a good year and he'd be an automatic for 2015... I think Tutt is safe regardless, so to Cordy (if only because of his contract status) and Wood will see another contract... Of the rookies I think only Redpath has a chance of being kept and that is a slim one at best.... I can't see the others being kept or should I say promoted..

 

[TBOW]

Gia, Howard - Greenwood, Redpath - and maybe Williams, Morris or Boyd depending on form & injuries.

Wait. Do we need to elevate or delist all our rookies this year? Might be hard to keep any if that's the case.
Unless we can delist & re-rookie them.

 

[King Harold]

I think Howard has the biggest target on his back, it's going to take one hell of a year from him if he's going to be saved. I fear for Pearce, we've drafted players smarter, faster and more skilled since and he really needs to show something to keep his spot. I think Goodes future will be determined by how many of our flanker types come on this season, he's 50/50 for mine. Williams is well and truly one injury away from having to step a side, yet a good year and he'd be an automatic for 2015... I think Tutt is safe regardless, so to Cordy (if only because of his contract status) and Wood will see another contract... Of the rookies I think only Redpath has a chance of being kept and that is a slim one at best.... I can't see the others being kept or should I say promoted..

Just as I see it True Dog , except Tutt. See him and Howard in a very similar position.
Expect all our recent draftees to go well past them both.
Most on this board know how I rate both those boys.
So I am going to try to find all the positives I can for both of them in the front half of the season ,
but come the middle of the year and they havn't improved one jot then no more discussion,
thats it ---- off with their heads !

 

[Butane]

Ok want the stats on johno hawkins and even mr football you will find this kid is way in front -love him boys our wings od bon and mcrae are as classy as the club will ever see.

This post made my day.

 

[black pup]

I have watched most of Howard's games since his arrival at Whitten Oval. I can justify an argument for most on our list.
Howard retaining his place on our list is a complete mystery to me, it's certainly not his performances, he is a very lucky boy who I hope repays the faith. He is at the bottom of the mountain, and mountain looks like Everest to me.
Good luck Christen.

 

[paulveed]

No, I don't think that he's hit his ceiling and I've no doubt that his game will improve. My point is simply that at this stage, I feel that he's a bit one-dimensional and quite predictable. There are three major reasons why I believe that this could prove to be a more difficult limitation to overcome completely than others you see in juniors. Firstly, because it's mostly instinctual and instincts can prove quite difficult and time-consuming to shift, especially as players tend to regress when put under extreme pressure. Macrae has had this "sidestep whenever you're in trouble" mentality throughout his junior career, and I noticed in a few instances that he did just this in situations where it was impossible to do so, and it ended up putting him in even more trouble. It's difficult to change this; it's the way he's always known and the way that's always been successful for him, and players don't go away from this easily. Secondly, due to his confidence (or lack thereof) on his non-preferred. In order to reduce his dependence on this sidestep in pressure situations he needs to be able to use his opposing side frequently - something that he simply doesn't do at the moment. He hesitates whenever he is actually forced to do so and often opts to offload the ball in whatever way is possible, but not necessarily effective. I have faith that his kick will improve but I feel as though his confidence in it is at such a low base that it's going to have to improve a hell of a lot before he begins to have faith in it at the level that's required of him. Lastly, and semi-related to the previous point, he doesn't have much of a fall-back option if the sidestep isn't a reasonable possibility. His right foot kick has been covered already, and at this stage his left kick is decent, but not exactly a weapon. His hands are fantastic in close but in many of these situations he is on the outside moving away from the contest.

I believe that Macrae's game is tailored for an inside player, but at this stage he's held back from doing so due to a few other weaknesses (including strength and size). The few VFL games of his I saw, he was playing much closer to the centre with much more support and many more options than he has on the outside in the AFL, and he was quite impressive. Not that he wasn't at AFL level for a 19 year old, just that his game looked more suited to that role. That's another reason why I haven't quite made my mind up on whether he'll become elite or not - personally I feel as though his game is built around a position that we're yet to see him play in.

As I said Dannnn, I don't have any serious argument with your view here. And far be it from me to argue against the importance and role of "instinct".
But I suspect to a degree you answered your own problem re Macrae. With good coaching and good attitude there is a good chance that like lots before him
[ Wal perhaps being the latest example], he will either be remodeled or played in a role more suited to his skills and limitations.

I have said elsewhere that I think a hell of a lot of this game is played between the player's ears. So I am a big advocate of the club having a serious sports psych to work with the players on things like their confidence, self doubts, and instinctive behaviours.

While I have seen weaknesses in Macrae's game [ and that of very many other players], I am not sure I have seen much that I would feel is incurable.
Will it all be overcome easily ? I agree ... not necessarily. Is it possible ? Most assuredly. Will it happen ? I sure hope so, but like almost every other thing in football, this comes with no guarantees.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Champion data stats are only that stats, they can be very misleading. They should only a guide and should be used as such.
A good example of this was Luke Dahlhaus in is draft year, he and Michael Turner were so frustrated with recruiters continuely over looking him for his so called really poor disposable, he was leading tackler in TAC, and his stats were very good in all other areas.
This frustration led Michael and Luke to sent a DVD to all clubs of Luke's highlights, showing where he got his possessions, which were mainly in and under and always under pressure. This showed the reason for his poor disposable.
Thank god our recruiters gave him a chance. I believe sats have a place, but that's it, only a place. They are not gospel and must be put into context.

I totally agree, but the only stat I used in the previous post was contested:uncontested possession rate, which is generally quite a good indicator of what role a particular player is playing. It was applied in context anyway - the number wasn't relevant in itself, but the fact that he plays much more inside in the VFL hints at where he's most comfortable.

Changing focus a bit here.

Which player's are you not confident on being on the list at the end of the season?

I'd say these ones are the most likely in contention.

Easton Wood
Tom Williams
Jason Tutt
Daniel Pearce
Christian Howard
Daniel Giansiracusa - Retired
Ayce Cordy - (Still has another year on his contract after this one)
Brett Goodes

Redpath
Greenwood
Jong
Austin

I agree with much of that. I think Higgins will be traded (most likely for very little) if he has another poor/injury depleted year - was supposedly happy to have a fresh start if he was traded this year and I think that'll only get stronger if he can't get over his issues. I have little confidence in Wood making it, but the coaching staff seem to love him and I think they'll persist with him. Tutt is on his last legs in my opinion. Pearce needs to show something, but I think he can play a role in the side. Howard I saw little reason to retain him this year, let alone next year - seems to be a great bloke though, so am hoping he proves me wrong. Gia is a given. Cordy will get another year, and Goodes could go either way. Redpath is on his last legs but I have a feeling he's going to make it as a third tall/rebounding defender. Austin will be retained due to shallow KPD depth, while Greenwood and Jong are likely in trouble. I also think Picken will be on the outer and may seek more opportunity; we may also make the decision for him if a few of the younger players mentioned above come along.

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

I totally agree, but the only stat I used in the previous post was contested:uncontested possession rate, which is generally quite a good indicator of what role a particular player is playing. It was applied in context anyway - the number wasn't relevant in itself, but the fact that he plays much more inside in the VFL hints at where he's most comfortable.




I agree with much of that. I think Higgins will be traded (most likely for very little) if he has another poor/injury depleted year - was supposedly happy to have a fresh start if he was traded this year and I think that'll only get stronger if he can't get over his issues. I have little confidence in Wood making it, but the coaching staff seem to love him and I think they'll persist with him. Tutt is on his last legs in my opinion. Pearce needs to show something, but I think he can play a role in the side. Howard I saw little reason to retain him this year, let alone next year - seems to be a great bloke though, so am hoping he proves me wrong. Gia is a given. Cordy will get another year, and Goodes could go either way. Redpath is on his last legs but I have a feeling he's going to make it as a third tall/rebounding defender. Austin will be retained due to shallow KPD depth, while Greenwood and Jong are likely in trouble. I also think Picken will be on the outer and may seek more opportunity; we may also make the decision for him if a few of the younger players mentioned above come along.

Roberts would also need to show significant progress. I'm confident Tutt will be in best 22 by season's end. Howard NO.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

As always, two U18s are training with us in the preseason. Just a couple of brief thoughts.

Duom Dawam
A super exciting but very raw ruck prospect who will always draw comparisons to Majak Daw. He's probably not as strong and his forward work isn't nearly as good, but he does some extraordinary things and is quite a good tap ruckman. Has a big wingspan and, along with his athleticism, it makes him an interesting prospect. Raw and inconsistent at this stage which makes him difficult to place. At this point I don't believe he'll be drafted - players this raw are often overlooked, at least in their under 18 year. Does have something though and he's an interesting one to watch.

Liam Duggan
I was happy when I saw that Liam was training with us, as I rate him quite highly. Duggan's a small (I'd guess at about 178-182cm), skinny half-back flanker who has a knack for breaking lines and rebounding. His agility is very good in addition to his speed, which allows him to get around his opponent with ease when on the move. He has a solid kick but at this point I'm not sure it will be elite. He'll be in the mix of the top ten and, in my opinion, will almost certainly be a top 20 pick (injuries and such permitting).

 

[TBOW]

I think Higgins will be traded (most likely for very little) if he has another poor/injury depleted year - was supposedly happy to have a fresh start if he was traded this year and I think that'll only get stronger if he can't get over his issues.

Not sure if the stats back this up at all, but it seems that people who get spoken about in trade rumours one year often get traded the next.
As much as I hate to say it I have a bad feeling that JJ could be another who may be thrown around in trade talks next year...

 

[Dav1d]

Duggan, Watchman, Pickett & Lamb all high on my watch list for the next load of champs
Hopefully this next draft, GWS hasn't picked up every KPP by the time it comes to our second pick
if our first wasn't used on one

 

[FROGGR]

As always, two U18s are training with us in the preseason. Just a couple of brief thoughts.

Duom Dawam
A super exciting but very raw ruck prospect who will always draw comparisons to Majak Daw. He's probably not as strong and his forward work isn't nearly as good, but he does some extraordinary things and is quite a good tap ruckman. Has a big wingspan and, along with his athleticism, it makes him an interesting prospect. Raw and inconsistent at this stage which makes him difficult to place. At this point I don't believe he'll be drafted - players this raw are often overlooked, at least in their under 18 year. Does have something though and he's an interesting one to watch.

Liam Duggan
I was happy when I saw that Liam was training with us, as I rate him quite highly. Duggan's a small (I'd guess at about 178-182cm), skinny half-back flanker who has a knack for breaking lines and rebounding. His agility is very good in addition to his speed, which allows him to get around his opponent with ease when on the move. He has a solid kick but at this point I'm not sure it will be elite. He'll be in the mix of the top ten and, in my opinion, will almost certainly be a top 20 pick (injuries and such permitting).

I agree with these assessments Dannnnnnnnnn; I can only hope that someone like Peter Wright or Patrick McCartin (or someone similiar...) is available at our 1st round pick. A key forward is a must for us in this draft (after the cream has been scooped up by GWS).

http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2014-01-13/jets-duo-dogs-for-a-week
Jets duo Dogs for a week

January 13, 2014 4:27 PM

AIS-AFL Academy and Western Jets pair Duom Dawam and Liam Duggan training with the Bulldogs


Two AIS-AFL Academy students will learn just how demanding professional football can be this week, spending a week embedded at the kennel training alongside the Western Bulldogs.
As part of the AIS-AFL Academy’s program, each player has been invited to join the inner sanctum at one of the 18 clubs to form part of their final year of age group football.
The Bulldogs will provide aspiring AFL players Duom Dawam and Liam Duggan an insight into life as a footballer, giving them the opportunity to live, breathe and eat like a professional athlete for the week.
Bulldogs Development Manager Chris Maple said the two players, both from TAC Cup side the Western Jets, would be immersed in the Club’s training program from running and weights to meetings in the Development Academy.
“They will be involved in most of the program, they won’t do all the training that our AFL players do because they haven’t done the volume of training that is required to even get through sessions,” Maple said.
“But it is a real insight to them of what is required, we have buddied them up with players and they go and learn about the intensity of the training recruited and also the recovery.
“They will just keep learning about the general principles of training and the specifics of AFL footy.”
The two players live locally to Victoria University Whitten Oval, hail from the west of Melbourne.
“We’ve got a good relationship with the Jets and we want to continue to foster that,” he said.
“So to have two young western region boys – one from Bacchus Marsh and one from Werribee - coming into the footy club is fantastic for them and great for us.
“Hopefully they can get a lot out of it.”
The experience can be beneficial for the clubs as well, with a number of players going on to be drafted by their respective team.
Jake Stringer is one who firmed as a potential draftee when training with the Bulldogs in 2012, as part of the AIS-AFL Academy program.
Meanwhile Sam Darley also began his footballing apprenticeship at the kennel in 2010 through the program and has since returned to the Bulldogs, after initially being recruited by the GWS Giants.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I agree with these assessments Dannnnnnnnnn; I can only hope that someone like Peter Wright or Patrick McCartin (or someone similiar...) is available at our 1st round pick. A key forward is a must for us in this draft (after the cream has been scooped up by GWS).

At this point if you want Wright I think we'll need the wooden spoon - he's the hot favourite for pick 1 for me. McCartin is one that could be there though; very strong and smart but has a pretty woeful kick.

If we want a KPP though I imagine there'll be plenty to choose from at our pick, wherever it may lie - at this point you could probably make a case for as many as 15 KPPs being top 20. Early days though.

 

[King Harold]

Roberts would also need to show significant progress. I'm confident Tutt will be in best 22 by season's end. Howard NO.

Wow Bazza , Howard agree , but Tutt best 22 at seasons end !
Your not related are you ?

 

[FROGGR]

Then again, Duggan is a left footer - and we seem to be following that trend.

 

[fronkalicious]

I'm tipping:

2 retiress (gia and one of Boyd/murph/Morris)
Howard (glad we gave him another season though. Hope he takes off this year but obviously the odds aren't in his favour at this point)
Tutt (fundamentally flawed player).
Williams (sigh. God damn I hope he gets through the season and carries on, but odds against that as well clearly)

I can see 5 off the main list, plus a trade (wood, grant, Higgins as possibles) making it 6 in total.

Greenwood, redpath, Austin delisted from the rookie list. Jong gets upgraded.

Tipping we bring in a player via trade as well (Patton anyone?? ), 4 via the national draft and a couple of rookie selections.

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

Wow Bazza , Howard agree , but Tutt best 22 at seasons end !
Your not related are you ?

Yep and so is the coach ...

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl...artneys-premiership-plans-20131113-2xh9p.html

 

[King Harold]

Yep and so is the coach ...

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl...artneys-premiership-plans-20131113-2xh9p.html

Interesting article. And I do agree he has some attributes we could do with , but this year he needs to address his problem areas and quick, because our recent draftees have already gone past him.
If you read between the lines the coach is saying just that.
And an article from the Canberra Times , where's Tutt from ?

 

[True Dog]

IMO Tutt isn't going anywhere soon, regardless of where the article above was written.... Yep he has some flaws but he has some great attributes as well and he's training brilliantly at the moment. He's in all the contested stuff with the mids, the game sim stuff with the mids, out front in most running drills..... To me Macca is a focus on what a player can do sort of guy and fix the rest not a focus on his weakness and piss him off fellow.....Look I'm not saying his days aren't numbered but can't see it this year I really can't...