Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 3 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Triple Baileys]

Don't completely discount Isaac Smith happening

That old hack? Pick 51 or walk away, no more to pay.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Unpopular opinion but jeez Keath is underrated on here. I’d value him between pick 30-35. Bruce I’d value between 23-30. And that’s with Bulldog coloured glasses on.

Personally, I’d be very happy with the 4 way trade that we knocked back.

I rate Bruce but not Keath. Jake Lever all over again, looking good while playing on nobody. I'm willing to bet it'll be a different story once you ask him to be accountable. Can he do it? Maybe. Will he be in "All Australian form" doing so? I doubt it.

 

[Triple Baileys]

I rate Bruce but not Keath. Jake Lever all over again, looking good while playing on nobody. I'm willing to bet it'll be a different story once you ask him to be accountable. Can he do it? Maybe. Will he be in "All Australian form" doing so? I doubt it.

Interesting perspective since so many of us have him pencilled in at the very accountable CHB position. I've gone off him unless he comes in for a 3rd round pick. It is very speculative.

 

[fronkalicious]

Don't completely discount Isaac Smith happening

Inside info sentinel?

I’m keener on him than Keath.

 

[fronkalicious]

St Kilda want/need Bruce out. There is absolutely zero chance of that deal not going through

 

[MrChristo]

Typical from Sam do fu** all power

Jack watts was pick 1. Never forget.

"Typical" is pretty tough to quantify after one year...

...oh, and in that year we got Lloyd for nothing (64), Duryea for less and Bailly Smith @ 7 (which was off the table) who played every (?) game and will be a star.

The thing that gets lost in trade week discussions...and the point scale now makes it even 'worse' (obviously there uses/needs for points)...is that the picks still equate to real players.
If we think we can get a genuinely good player to fill a genuine need at a certain pick, then we would have to have an absolute bargain/gift land in our laps to consider moving it on.

Patience.
At the very least, standing firm shows that we have a plan.

 

[Northernsoul74]

St Kilda want/need Bruce out. There is absolutely zero chance of that deal not going through

Are we pivotal to the rumored massive Hill trade about to go down?

 

[ivan rassmussen]

Hill trade involves 12 clubs, 17 players, 8 wedding invites, 3 first-born and the left one of at least 2 list managers...

 

[Kermit]

Not Dogs info, but he wants out and we're an option. I've alluded to the reasons why before.

Yeah, but that was a whole other thread...

 

[dogwatch]

Re the foxsports article about the Doggies holding up the 4-way trade:

I'm very satisfied with the position the club has taken. Been thinking about it:

If we get Bruce for 32 + 3rd round. Ok. If we get Keath for 3rd round or 3rd round x 2, ok. Otherwise,

Happy to walk away from Bruce. 4 year contract is a bit generous imo. will be in 30's when contract concludes. It's only worth it if he comes relatively cheap pickwise.

Happy to walk away from Keath. 4 year contract too generous. 29 in 2020, 20 games, Injury requiring surgery may be related to previous career as a fast bowler. Only worth it if he comes relatively cheap in terms of picks.

More than happy to go to draft with picks 13, 32, 45 and keep going with a team that is young and building. Happy to use 51 & 53 for new blood or to promote R. Smith and Lachie Young.

Your reservations seem to be based mainly around the contracts being too generous. I think this overlooks the fact that we are supposed to have more cap space than any other club.

A trade (non-FA) involves 3 dimensions apart from the player himself:

1. The salary to be paid to the new player
2. The length of his contract
3. The price paid to the club he's coming from

• Salary is no real obstacle for us right now. It's not often we can say that.
• I agree length of contract is different because if the player's a dud we have to keep him on the list (list-clogger) or pay him out. However with our current surplus of cap space we can structure our offers to both players to be heavily front-loaded. I'm hoping we've done just that.
• The real issue then is what picks we give up. I agree with you and LittleG on what is fair but that's not always how the market works. As someone just said (EDIT: it was Dogsman16 ), our time is now. So there's an opportunity cost in walking away from these deals.

With regard to our contract offers in front of both players: don't forget that to prise a player out of another club you usually have to offer a bit more than they would get where they are - one or both of salary + length of contract. This is still legitimate in the case of Bruce, even though he supposedly approached us first.

Bottom line: We should be challenging for top 4 in 2020. There's a serious opportunity cost in just walking away from these trades. I'm confident both will get done and hopeful that we can retain our pick #13 in doing so.

 

[Yojimbo]

At the very least, standing firm shows that we have a plan.

Operation standing firm, sounds like the Adelaide "Power Stance" to me.

Maybe the plan should be, operation try dealing with clubs who finish above you on the ladder.

This is Josh Bruce and Alex Keath were talking about not Messi and Ronaldo !

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Norm De Guerre

Some or all of this info might be worth sticking in the OP of this thread, for when the inevitable questions arise about when certain dates occur:

Friday 4 October - AFL Restricted Free Agency Offer and Unrestricted Free Agency Period Commences.

Monday 7 October 9am - NAB AFL Trade Period Commences.

Thursday 10 October 5pm - Close of AFL Restricted Free Agency Offer and Unrestricted Free Agency Period.

Sunday 13 October - AFL Restricted Free Agency Matching Offer Three-Day Period Ends.

Wednesday 16 October 7.30pm (tbc) - NAB AFL Trade Period Closes (for exchange of players).

Thursday 17 October - AFL Trade Period Opens (selections only).

Friday 18 October 5pm - Application to Relist a Player Close

Thursday 31 October 2pm - List Lodgement (1)

Friday 1 November - AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) Commences

Monday 11 November- AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) closes

Tuesday 12 November 2pm - List Lodgement (2)

Wednesday 13 November - AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) Commences

Friday 22 November 2pm - NAB AFL Trade Period Closes (for exchange of selections only)

Friday 22 November 5pm - AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) Closes

Wednesday 27 November 7pm - 9.30pm - NAB AFL Draft Selection Meeting (Round One), Marvel Stadium.

Thursday 28 November 7pm - 9.30pm - NAB AFL Draft Selection Meeting (Round Two onwards to conclusion).

Thursday 28 November (post draft) - AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3)

Thursday November 28 post draft OR Friday 29 November from 9am - NAB AFL Rookie Draft

Monday 2 December 2pm - Final AFL Club List Lodgement

Done.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

Done.

Does anyone know when trade period finishes...?!

 

[dogwatch]

Here's how I see the remainder of the trade period playing out (unless of course it all gets blown away by a Brad Hill megadeal).

The orange line is our stress rating, also known as the "Sack Power Index".

 

[Mojorisin]

Think this may be the biggest deal we have seen.

 

[Yojimbo]

Does anyone know when trade period finishes...?!

When Chris Grant runs into the room with signed paperwork ready to go 30 seconds from closure. I would use
an emoji, but it has happened before.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

.

Here's how I see the remainder of the trade period playing out (unless of course it all gets blown away by a Brad Hill megadeal).

The orange line is our stress rating, also known as the "Sack Power Index".

View attachment 764473

Needs more bullet points and pie charts.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

Think this may be the biggest deal we have seen.

Apparently VFL, NTFL, Superleague netball and Hellfire Clubs involved now.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Think this may be the biggest deal we have seen.

In terms of teams in involved or sheer number of picks?

 

[ringa5]

Re the foxsports article about the Doggies holding up the 4-way trade:

I'm very satisfied with the position the club has taken. Been thinking about it:

If we get Bruce for 32 + 3rd round. Ok. If we get Keath for 3rd round or 3rd round x 2, ok. Otherwise,

Happy to walk away from Bruce. 4 year contract is a bit generous imo. will be in 30's when contract concludes. It's only worth it if he comes relatively cheap pickwise.

Happy to walk away from Keath. 4 year contract too generous. 29 in 2020, 20 games, Injury requiring surgery may be related to previous career as a fast bowler. Only worth it if he comes relatively cheap in terms of picks.

More than happy to go to draft with picks 13, 32, 45 and keep going with a team that is young and building. Happy to use 51 & 53 for new blood or to promote R. Smith and Lachie Young.

Exactly Reality rather than desperation.
Happy to have these players on board.
But must keep 13 and keep building.
Power seems to be doing the job and hopefully knows what triple Baileys is taking about.And is not desperate to overpay with 13.Non negotiable
Bruce is not Tom Lynch
And Keath not Brian Lake
Just handy additions
Reality please

 

[Mojorisin]

In terms of teams in involved or sheer number of picks?

Players/teams/ picks. The whole works. Think the afl have been pushing for it to work as a "spectical"

 

[Libba39]

I say we trade pick 32 for Keath and if the Saints play hardball with Bruce, we can get him next year cheaper when he's out of contract.

But isn't trading pick 32 for a 28(?) Yr-old who has only played 30 games paying WAY over?

 

[Libba39]

Hill trade involves 12 clubs, 17 players, 8 wedding invites, 3 first-born and the left one of at least 2 list managers...

Oh, and don't forget Tim Kelly's missus has to rubber stamp it too....

 

[Smiley Boy]

I deadset can't keep up here just get the deals done plz

 

[Yojimbo]

St Kilda and Fremantle just don't have the picks to be involved in anything plus next years picks are compromised
heavily, the next two days are must watch days.