List Mgmt. Trade & Draft UltraThread- Warning, May Contain Speculation #combinethethreads

[Monocle]

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Tpday I watched "On The Couch" from Monday night and they brought up the measure of Post Stoppage Contested Possession Differential. The term is apparently been around about 18 months and starting to gain in traction.

The top 3 clubs of Geelong, Pies and GWS are rated top 3 and we are rated second bottom. We expereinced first hand against Geelong how that works as the clean post stoppages are generally ending up in fast ball to the forwards and high conversion rates to 6 pointers

Clubs that do very well have inside bulls who get first hands on the ball and then inside mids who can accelerate away from the stoppages . We basically have 3 in Rioli, Yeo and Shuey, although we are trying to use Yeo as an inside bull and Rioli is out of action so limited.

Melbourne have been caught out having too many inside bulls (Brayshaw and Oliver fighting over the same ball).

When you have endurance runners who are not fast but can run all day in the likes of Hutchings, Gaff and Masten plus Sheed and Redden, it is not suprising we are struggling on this measure. And I suggest that if we could improve in this measure will take personnel changes.

What does it say to me?
No tag target no Hutchings.
Only one of Sheed or Redden in for clearances.
Gaff definitely to the wing and not inside.
Masten either develops as a HBF or pisses off.
Perhaps Cole could be brought in to midfield as he played this sort of role in U18.

When I see some analysis, it can be insightful to use that to look at team balance and performances against it.

For those wanting Venables to the midfield, he is neither a bull nor does he possess any speed away from teh contest. Foley runs all day but not very fat however O'Neall my fit the bill.

Ideally we get Coniglio but failing that I like Sharp and there are other mids rated around the 10 to 25 mark that would be worth honing in on.

Great post and thanks for sharing that metric of the differential.

You have summed up our mids well in your critique and its a very alarming piece of analysis.

 

[southcoast]

Today I watched "On The Couch" from Monday night and they brought up the measure of Post Stoppage Contested Possession Differential. The term is apparently been around about 18 months and starting to gain in traction.

.........

Clubs that do very well have inside bulls who get first hands on the ball and then inside mids who can accelerate away from the stoppages . We basically have 3 in Rioli, Yeo and Shuey, although we are trying to use Yeo as an inside bull and Rioli is out of action so limited.

..........

When you have endurance runners who are not fast but can run all day in the likes of Hutchings, Gaff and Masten plus Sheed and Redden, it is not suprising we are struggling on this measure. And I suggest that if we could improve in this measure will take personnel changes.

............................

Drafting, trading and recruiting aside for the minute Nic Nat will make a huge difference to this metric upon his return. His recovery after the tap, knock etc is very quick, can lay a tackle and fire out a handball.

Nic - if you are reading this, "There is no pressure. None whatsover!"

If bull excrement meter is reading 'red' you're onto me.

 

[ghostbat12]

ATG I like your analysis, however your solution seems to be to win it, therefore your post stoppage differential has a better chance of being better. Whilst this can help it isn’t necessarily what the stat says. It’s not contested possession differential, it’s post stoppage contested differential. You could well win the stoppage but then get beaten down the line. A contested inside bull who breaks away is not necessarily a solution to that.

A post stoppage contested ball differential tells me that we are simply not working as a team and for each other. We are too reactive and ball watch. We don’t put in second efforts and get outnumbered.

It also means that even if we win the ball, we don’t work hard enough to open a player up for next possession. We either turn it over due to opposition pressure or bomb it long, where we are weak in 1. Bringing the ball down and 2. Reacting fast enough to where the ball is going.

Post stoppage work isn’t necessarily about what midfield do at a stoppage. In summary it means that our players are unwilling to put their head over the ball. In addition, players are all relying on other players to win it, which creates problems because obviously someone has to commit to winning it. We are therefore flat footed when the ball is in dispute and are second to the ball.

But in saying that, I wouldn’t mind a Patrick Cripps.

 

[kerr87]

Can we afford Tim Kelly at $800K a year?

Considering what we're paying Shuey, Yeo, Gaff, McGovern etc. surely we wouldn't have the room?

 

[new breed]

Can we afford Tim Kelly at $800K a year?

Considering what we're paying Shuey, Yeo, Gaff, McGovern etc. surely we wouldn't have the room?

Depends if some of our star players on good contracts keep playing and I think they should if they choose .

Possibly Kelly might have to accept $650k a year for 5 years if he is to come to WCE otherwise I reckon he is going to Freo or staying at Geelong which I think is unlikely ( very unlikely ) .

But I'm guessing though , just intuition .

 

[RanaNaved]

Why does everyone call bigger midfielders bulls? Why not rhino or hippo?

 

[avishka5]

Why does everyone call bigger midfielders bulls? Why not rhino or hippo?

actually you don't have to be big to be classfied as a bull tbh. The way they play has more to it.

Selwood ain't big but i would say his a bull, same with neale.

 

[RanaNaved]

actually you don't have to be big to be classfied as a bull tbh. The way they play has more to it.

Selwood ain't big but i would say his a bull, same with neale.

Selwood is more of a honey badger and Neale a ferret.

 

[Ridge Renegade]

Please tell me we are doing everything we can in the way of renegotiating or finishing up senior players contracts to make Cogniglio an Eagle. Have wanted him playing for us ever since he kicked 4 for S. Districts in a WAFL GF as a 16yr old. Who at that time had spent his childhood years going for WC.
F*** it, find a way to get Cogs, Kelly & Sharp.....
Not easy or cheap but if Hawthorn have the balls/initiative to pull off that kind of s***, so should we.

 

[Keys]

Can we afford Tim Kelly at $800K a year?

Considering what we're paying Shuey, Yeo, Gaff, McGovern etc. surely we wouldn't have the room?

Reportedly we were offering him $3m over 5 years last year. Given that his earnings in 2018 are capped at approximately $200k by the CBA as a 2nd year draftee it means we would have had to allow for $2.8m over the last 4 years of his deal - about $700k per year

Don’t think we should have too much trouble stretching that to $800k

It’s also reasonable to assume that Kelly would take less to play with us than Fremantle or Geelong since we are (were) his preferred destination. (How much less is anyone’s guess though)

No guarantees that we get Kelly but if we don’t I doubt it’ll be due to salary

 

[Scotland]

Kelly is better than any of our players. Soon he'll be better than any of our past players.

Gary Ablett contract and Chris Judd trade or gtfo.

 

[eagles rule]

Can we afford Tim Kelly at $800K a year?

Considering what we're paying Shuey, Yeo, Gaff, McGovern etc. surely we wouldn't have the room?

Maybe those guys could be agreeable to shaving $20 or 30K off their contracts if asked by the club ..Don’t think it’ll come to that but a option nonetheless..


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[eagles rule]

Starting to see Sharps name a bit now, looking fwd to the champs to get a good look a him. Same with Jackson, but like you really think mids should be our priority.

I read something earlier this week, Knightmare and a few others had Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell as better prospects than Sam Walsh. Anytime I watched Rowell last year he did star as an underager. Love to trade up if possible.

Matt Rowell is a gun and would take a Hawks like deal to get him ie the Trent Croad to Freo to get Luke Hodge ..

Would you do MaGovern for Pick 1 ??



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[mulehoops]

Quick question regarding mid season draft. Say there is a player we are heavily interested in but don't have the list room, would we put someone like a Barass for example on the lti list. So we could make room for said player? As in it might only be a 6 to 7 week injury but " fudge" it so we can partake in the draft?

 

[ghostbat12]

Matt Rowell is a gun and would take a Hawks like deal to get him ie the Trent Croad to Freo to get Luke Hodge ..

Would you do MaGovern for Pick 1 ??



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Yes I would.

 

[RanaNaved]

I wouldn't.

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Quick question regarding mid season draft. Say there is a player we are heavily interested in but don't have the list room, would we put someone like a Barass for example on the lti list. So we could make room for said player? As in it might only be a 6 to 7 week injury but " fudge" it so we can partake in the draft?

Once you go on the LTI list you are ineligible for 8 weeks so we definitely wouldn't do it with Barrass unless his injury is going to be much longer than that.

Also I don't know how it works post the mid-season draft but I would assume that someone drafted because of an LTI spot would be ineligible once that player was available again.

Technically sure it's possible to fudge it but you'd also need the consent of the injured player to be staying on the LTI which there's no incentive at all for them to do as it bars them from even playing in the WAFL. It'd be way more trouble than it's worth.

 

[ziad]

It’s also worth noting that of the three top sides in ‘post stoppage contested possession differential’, we beat two of them convincingly.

Lies, damn lies and statistics but we need to get our disposal back on track

 

[eagles rule]

Yes I would.

Everyone wants a elite A grade mid but when push comes to shove they don’t have the balls to say . yes ..

You obviously do ..

The other scenario involving the losses and crap year to get a Wooden Spoon type Pick 1 is worse right..


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[RanaNaved]

Matt Rowell is a gun and would take a Hawks like deal to get him ie the Trent Croad to Freo to get Luke Hodge ..

Would you do MaGovern for Pick 1 ??



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Trent Croad is no McGovern.

Gov is special. A rare backman on par with Rance and Scarlett, a point of difference player and loved by teammates and coaches.

Rowell is a 180 cm mid like Jack Viney. We could get a similar player without giving up our MVP imo.

 

[Coasters7]

Quick question regarding mid season draft. Say there is a player we are heavily interested in but don't have the list room, would we put someone like a Barass for example on the lti list. So we could make room for said player? As in it might only be a 6 to 7 week injury but " fudge" it so we can partake in the draft?

Would be better off letting guys know who we’re not giving contracts to and getting them to “retire”. McInnes a good example. I think everyone, himself included, know his times up. My moneys on him hanging up the boots and us drafting Grey into the squad.

 

[eagles rule]

Trent Croad is no McGovern.

Gov is special. A rare backman on par with Rance and Scarlett, a point of difference player and loved by teammates and and coaches.

Rowell is a 180 cm mid like Jack Viney. We could get a similar player without giving up our MVP imo.

Depends if you want to nab a Elite A Grade mid or a be content with a elite Backman ..

I think it’s harder to find a gun mid and slightly easier to get a big defender ..

Maybe the deal could be 2 first Rd picks say 2019 and future 2020 1 st pick


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[Monocle]

Matt Rowell is a gun and would take a Hawks like deal to get him ie the Trent Croad to Freo to get Luke Hodge ..

Would you do MaGovern for Pick 1 ??



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No I wouldn’t .

Happy to trade picks and or a quality player if need be however , I would not want to roll the dice on an untried player at AFL level , albeit a players with huge potential.

Rather trade for a known, proven performer such as Coniglio.

Trading for an untested , untried player at the next level is like trading in the futures market.

So I would play the conservative line and trade for proven known player with a history and track record of delivering.

To use last year, by way of an example Brisbane were shrewd and crafty by prising Neal away from the Chevrons.
They got the exact piece of the jigsaw puzzle that they were after.

To me that’s excellent trading and use of draft capital.

 

[RanaNaved]

Depends if you want to nab a Elite A Grade mid or a be content with a elite Backman ..

I think it’s harder to find a gun mid and slightly easier to get a big defender ..

Maybe the deal could be 2 first Rd picks say 2019 and future 2020 1 st pick


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Might be harder to find a gun mid than a big defender.
But harder to find a McGovern or Rance than a gun mid.

 

[eagles rule]

No I wouldn’t .

Happy to trade picks and or a quality player if need be however , I would not want to roll the dice on an untried player at AFL level , albeit a players with huge potential.

Rather trade for a known, proven performer such as Coniglio.

Trading for an untested , untried player at the next level is like trading in the futures market.

So I would play the conservative line and trade for proven known player with a history and track record of delivering.

To use last year, by way of an example Brisbane were shrewd and crafty by prising Neal away from the Chevrons.
They got the exact piece of the jigsaw puzzle that they were after.

To me that’s excellent trading and use of draft capital.

Yes that’s a very low risk option and sound advice ..

Who would this quality player be and what picks would you imagine would get the deal done for Connie ??

Initially my Pick 1 offer of Gov was in response to a poster with a urge to trade up to have a crack at the possible No 1 or 2 draft picks ..


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