U.S. Election Prediction

[DaveW]

Only two days to go, what does everyone reckon?

I'm feeling confident that Kerry can pull this one off. I'll say:

Kerry 309 to Bush 229 in the electoral college

Kerry gains (from Bush 2000): Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada

Bush gains (from Gore 2000): Iowa

Florida and Ohio are the two key battlegrounds that will decide this election. Bush only won New Hampshire in 2000 with the help of Nader. Nevada might be slightly optimistic, but its an area of the country that's supposedly trending Democrat.

Some of the midwest states that Gore won narrowly look a bit vulnerable. I've chosen Iowa as the one to fall.

Kerry will win the popular vote by a couple of percentage points.

I'll pick Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate, to do the best of the third party candidates. If only for the fact that Ralph Nader failed to get a place on many of the state ballot papers.

The Republicans should retain both chambers of Congress. Even in a nationwide Democrat landslide they'd most likely still retain that gerrymandered joke of a House of Representatives.

 

[Bombers_Forever]

Kerry will win if those who did not vote last time do cast a vote. The non-compulsory voting system will play into Kerry's hands. People who did not vote last time will vote Kerry so Bush CAN'T win.

However Bush might win because Kerry has not spent enough time stating what he would do if he were President.

 

[GuruJane]

Most of the polls are close but this was also true of the Australian election.

Going by the demeanour of the candidates, Dubya is looking very relaxed while Kerry is not really looking like a man who feels he's got it in the bag.

The Dems have run a very good campaign imo and taken it right up to the Republicans. It will be an interesting night.

 

[butterflykiss]

Would like to see Kerry win but I think just like in Australia Bush and the far right backed god botherers will win.

 

[evo]

latest approximate dividends on Betfair for $1.00

Dubya 1.75

Kerry 2.35

 

[teams]

Every betting agency has Bush as favourite. The turn out factor makes this a less reliable guide than under a compulsory voting system.

This is the state by numbers of electors to the college.

ALABAMA 9
ALASKA 3
ARIZONA10
ARKANSAS 6
CALIFORNIA 55
COLORADO 9
CONNECTICUT 7
DELAWARE 3
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 3
FLORIDA 27
GEORGIA 15
HAWAII 4
IDAHO 4
ILLINOIS 21
INDIANA 11
IOWA 7
KANSAS 6
KENTUCKY 8
LOUISIANA 9
MAINE 4
MARYLAND 10
MASSACHUSETTS 12
MICHIGAN 17
MINNESOTA 10
MISSISSIPPI 6
MISSOURI 11
MONTANA 3
NEBRASKA 5
NEVADA 5
NEW HAMPSHIRE 4
NEW JERSEY 15
NEW MEXICO 5
NEW YORK 31
NORTH CAROLINA 15
NORTH DAKOTA 3
OHIO 20
OKLAHOMA 7
OREGON 7
PENNSYLVANIA 21
RHODE ISLAND 4
SOUTH CAROLINA 8
SOUTH DAKOTA 3
TENNESSEE 11
TEXAS 34
UTAH 5
VERMONT 3
VIRGINIA 13
WASHINGTON 11
WEST VIRGINIA 5
WISCONSIN 10
WYOMING 3


You need 270 to win. Evidently the East and West Coasts are favouring Kerry. The middle Bush. He should win again.

 

[DaveW]

Well obviously none of you have seen today's NFL results.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=6668929

Redskins Loss - Bad News for Bush, Great for Kerry

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Washington Redskins lost their final home football game before the U.S. presidential election on Sunday -- and that's great news for Democratic Sen. John Kerry and bad news for President Bush.
In every presidential election since 1936, the Redskins' last home game has accurately predicted the winner. If they win, the incumbent president's party wins. If they lose, the challenger wins.

The Redskins lost to Green Bay 28-14 and Kerry quickly celebrated.

"I couldn't be more thrilled with the Packers win today," Kerry said in a statement. "The Packers have done their part, this Tuesday I'll do mine."

The loss by the Redskins was made sweeter since it came to the Green Bay Packers of Green Bay, Wisconsin -- a swing state where Packer football is akin to religion and one Kerry might need to defeat Bush in Tuesday's voting.

© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

 

[Dry Rot]

Kerry to take Ohio but Florida gets Bush over the line.

 

[YOTC]

Bush easily.

 

[Rodion]

Supposedly Osama bin Laden has subtly hinted he'd rather see Kerry in the White House than Bush. Who knows why? Surely Kerry will go after him as hard as Bush, if not more so. And Kerry's actually got a brain in his head, not just bourbon and pork rinds.

 

[Black Panther]

Bet365/Centrebet

Bush $1.57
Kerry $2.25

Polls mean jack (as we found out October 9) - Bush will win with relative ease

300-320 range

Bush senior adviser Karl Rove said a few days ago Bush led 'well' in 8 of the 10 'battleground states' - no grabbing the underdog status there

 

[MightyFighting]

Supposedly Osama bin Laden has subtly hinted he'd rather see Kerry in the White House than Bush. Who knows why? Surely Kerry will go after him as hard as Bush, if not more so. And Kerry's actually got a brain in his head, not just bourbon and pork rinds.

Reverse psycology.


BTW, Bush will win comfortably.

 

[DaveW]

Sounds like the bookies don't have much of a clue either.

The odds had shifted firmly towards the Coalition by this stage of the race.

 

[jim boy]

Similar to last time.

Neither candidate to come out with a clear victory, cue the lawyers and in the wash-up results in a Republican victory thanks to the Bush-stacked high court.

However a lot less clear cut than the Aus election.

 

[mulhollanddrive]

Bush fairly comfortably. I think this has parallels with Howard, Kerry and Latham are very flawed as leaders in different ways and given the climate I dont think there are enough people in the U.S either smart enough or brave enough to vote for change.

Polls say Bush could win a couple of northern states that Gore had, meaning Kerry would have to win possibly 8/10 battleground states, and the polls simply say that wont happen unless theres a late 2-3% swing in each of those states. Gore managed to win the popular vote with that late swing given he was in exactly the same situation as Kerry re popular poll voting pre election either equal or just trailling. But I dont think the neutrals will have the same discontent with an incumbent given the survival mentality being exploited by the neo-cons.

 

[funkyfreo]

Bush fairly comfortably. I think this has parallels with Howard, Kerry and Latham are very flawed as leaders in different ways and given the climate I dont think there are enough people in the U.S either smart enough or brave enough to vote for change.
.

The difference being that here they stuck with Howard because the economy is booming. Apparently US citizens are much less than impressed with the US economy.

 

[coasting]

Bush fairly comfortably. I think this has parallels with Howard, Kerry and Latham are very flawed as leaders in different ways and given the climate I dont think there are enough people in the U.S either smart enough or brave enough to vote for change.

Polls say Bush could win a couple of northern states that Gore had, meaning Kerry would have to win possibly 8/10 battleground states, and the polls simply say that wont happen unless theres a late 2-3% swing in each of those states. Gore managed to win the popular vote with that late swing given he was in exactly the same situation as Kerry re popular poll voting pre election either equal or just trailling. But I dont think the neutrals will have the same discontent with an incumbent given the survival mentality being exploited by the neo-cons.

It has no parallels to the Australian election. Despite what people here think, America is not Australia. Very different political parties with different demographics with very different attitudes. The loss of jobs will hurt Bush badly. Don't compare Howard to that hack Bush. Howard is a political genius while Bush is just a dumba$$. Not even in the same league. Kerry is no Lathum either, he is a war hero. Americans love that stuff. Latham is a unionist and a dud. Australians hate that stuff. Democrats should have won the last election and they should win this one.

 

[Goldenblue]

Bush, only because of the terrorism factor.

If the war was not happening, Kerry in a landslide.

 

[kirky]

I think Kerry will win it and hopefully confortably by grabbing Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida but losing either Wisconsin or Iowa. The American economy is struggling and Bush has no idea (but we already knew that). The early turnout of voters is not a good sign for Bush - people have made up their mind and had enough of this clown.

By the way, Osama Bin Laden seemed to be relatively clean in that video - probably taped it in the basement of the Watergate Hotel in Washington!!

 

[Frodo]

It's like the WA state election. A crap government with a no hope opposition.

Can you see Kerry as a president? Michael Foot mark 2.

Bush to win, comfortably.

 

[MightyFighting]

Can you see Kerry as a president? Michael Foot mark 2.

Could you imagine what a monkey like Bush would be like as president? Oh, wait...

 

[DaveW]

Bump. Why was I the only one to make definitive predictions?

Might as well see how I went...

Only two days to go, what does everyone reckon?

I'm feeling confident that Kerry can pull this one off. I'll say:

Kerry 309 to Bush 229 in the electoral college

Well I got that wrong. Obviously.

Kerry gains (from Bush 2000): Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada

One out of four. New Hampshire fell to Kerry. (Ohio and Nevada were awfully close.)

Bush gains (from Gore 2000): Iowa

Iowa is still up in the air; Bush has a slender lead there.

New Mexico is so far the only Gore-2000 state that has gone to Bush in this election.

Kerry will win the popular vote by a couple of percentage points.

Easily my worst prediction. Bush won the popular vote by about three points.

I'll pick Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate, to do the best of the third party candidates. If only for the fact that Ralph Nader failed to get a place on many of the state ballot papers.

Ooh, close but no cigar.

Wikipedia reports their national totals at: Nader 0.34%. Badnarik 0.32%.

The third party candidates were very inconsequential this election.

The Republicans should retain both chambers of Congress. Even in a nationwide Democrat landslide they'd most likely still retain that gerrymandered joke of a House of Representatives.

Certainly got this right. The Democrats couldn't defend any of their five southern Senate seats with retiring incumbents. The Republicans won a Louisiana senate seat for the first time since reconstruction.

The Democrats also lost their senate leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Ouch.

Slightly increased Republican majority in the House of Reps too. Thanks mainly to the Texas gerrymander.

 

[Frodo]

Marks

F

 

[dr nick]

Sounds like the bookies don't have much of a clue either.

The odds had shifted firmly towards the Coalition by this stage of the race.

Gee Dave, you've done pretty poorly with the bookies this year

 

[Tim56]

Once again people allowed their political beliefs to influence their objective judgement, and it shows.