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scooter600x said:Weaver,
Is Nathan Jones of the Jets a chance?
Nathan Jones of the 'Rays? Would have thought Murphy would be the first rover called out with Jones and Douglas vieing to be the second selected.
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scooter600x said:Weaver,
Is Nathan Jones of the Jets a chance?
Sorry. Thinking one thing and wrote another.Weaver said:Nathan Jones of the 'Rays? Would have thought Murphy would be the first rover called out with Jones and Douglas vieing to be the second selected.
First part - fair enough.The Old Dark Navy's said:Agreed. Have to respond if you are being quoted though least it look like you have backed down and people assume you were wrong.
I predict that Carlton are in a Hawthorn situation where they will be damned if they do and damned if they don't, if their number one pick is not better than all others that are chosen afterwards. Nothing wrong with Luke Hodge but they are ridiculed for taking his all the time.
We now have a situation where Murphy, Ellis, Hurn, Ryder and Kennedy have been touted as number one selections. Whoever we take has to outperform four others to avoid the club being criticised. People should be dwelling on the positives rather than the negatives IMO.
Ford Fairlane said:Weaver, just one more question (for now) - what's your take on Matt Thomas? Seen him linked to Port in a couple of phantoms, anywhere between 30-60. I may have missed him, but I don't think he's made your list. Reservations?
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cypher said:How has Marc Murphy gone from being the only only homerun selection, to now being a part of a strategy to draft a KPP (was pick 8 and athletic, tall, might be better down back) and a midfielder?
scooter600x said:Sorry. Thinking one thing and wrote another.
I meant Nathan Lyons of the Jets.
Ragingbull said:Great job Cursed_Cat! Good reasoning behind all picks.
Few suggestions though
Stanley at 15 too high for a guy that struggles to kick the footy and will be available at 31 if the Cats are still keen.
Dale Thomas to go within the Top 15.
Weaver said:Last year
I found most of the names ... the order is out of whack (of course).
...
36/60 drafted.
9/60 rookie listed (Thursfield and Pearce look OK)
...
Could be a good late pick this year, showed a bit of good form this year. Every year there are one or two roughies who are plucked out and drafted at bottom age.scooter600x said:I meant Nathan Lyons of the Jets.
Thanks for the good response, but a good poster who is normally on the money has stated Carlton will draft Murphy ahead of a KPP.After previously being set on a tall Carlton have apparently realised Murphy is too good to overlook.I can live with Kennedy and Hurn but I'm not playing favourites in wanting Murphy.Weaver said:Murphy I am certain will be a good player. But whether he is any better than that remains to be seen. Personally I think he will probably end up in the Aussie Jones / Heath Black sort of class-group. No complaints, but perhaps not the best player in the draft. Quite possibly the safest pick though.
On the other hand a good tall ... even a guy who is just solid like Bradshaw, J.Longmuir etc can often be harder to find and more valuable to a team.
I think that Murphy is the only guy in the draft guarenteed to be a 100+ game player, but not guarenteed to be the best player. A guy like Ellis could be a fringe player like Fiora or a top-3 Brownlow guy like Dal Santo. We won't know for 5 years.
That may be true, but every year steals slip through to the rookie draft, and even go undrafted.Drummond said:Cannot believe Sam Elliot is not in the top 67. What a joke, he will be a steal.
Weaver said:1. Josh Kennedy – Carlton
Can play CHF or CHB and will be ready to play quite quickly. Good leap and covers a lot of ground, and can take a contested mark. Being able to apprentice in the backline for 2-3 years is an asset. As much as the Blues might want Murphy their bigman stakes need surgery. If they take the best KP player first they are guaranteed one of Murphy, Ellis or Hurn at 4. If they take Murphy first they may leave the draft with two midfielders or have to take Clarke at 4. Kennedy first is good strategy in my book (can’t see Kennedy slipping past the Hawks at 3 who will want to replace Hay).
2. Marc Murphy - Collingwood
Genuine football-smart ball winning rover who makes good decisions and runs to dangerous positions on the ground. Good clean hands and handy around the stoppages. Can kick a goal and is a solid kick. Has maturity and some leadership skills. Will play fairly early and looks a good option to replace Burns. Has a little hint of Cousins in the way he plays, nice upright running style with his eyes always looking down field. Hurn may appeal to them as a typical Collingwood midfielder but Murphy is a better player and more versatile. Hurn isn’t going to break a game open, Murphy might.
3. Xavier Ellis – Hawthorn
Will the Hawks be patient enough to take a long-term prospect (particularly with Tuck f/s already)? Ellis reads the play superbly and is a tidy kick. Would add a genuine wingman to a side which lacks speed and ball carriers. Perfect complement to their inside midfielders and a supplier of goals to their young forwards. Body is a concern, could be Nick Dal Santo, could be Aaron Fiora. Hawks fans will say “Hurn, Hurn, Hurn” but in Mitchell and Lewis they have their extractors, they need a runner. Hawks tend not to like the stickmen though. With extra early picks they may go for a KP player here and look at a receiver later. Hurn they don’t need, Ellis isn’t their type, they’d want Kennedy to slip.
4. Shannon Hurn – Carlton
Blues can accommodate a big-bodied, one-paced centreman. Shapes as a playmaker whose superb kicking will be a lethal weapon if the play can be directed through him. Blues have to build a whole new midfield and he would complement speedsters Walker and Russell well. Tough to judge him because he needs to slim down and get fit and if he does could be a Cameron Ling type ruck-rover. Carlton will be happy to get a guy who can play straight away. Probably going to be a Luke Hodge type cruising around half-back getting kicks behind play. The quality of his kicking would make that worthwhile. If Lappin walks then Hurn would take his job immediately.
5. Mitchell Clarke – Collingwood
Was a preseason number 1 until he was found out as a reluctant contester at the Championships. At 197cm he can pinch-hit in the ruck which will appeal to the Pies who still can’t solve that position. They can put him in the reserves for a year or two to work on the weights and have a replacement for Rocca at CHF. Clarke is quicker, more mobile and has a better leap than T.Cloke so they should combine well. Needs to learn to play body-on-body and to play from in front. At the very least he will have high trade currency in four years time. The leap, and athleticism are too much to ignore and he won’t fall too far.
6. Cleve Hughes – Hawthorn
Franklin shapes as more a mobile flanker, and Roughead probably a CHB. Hughes is more a genuine contester and corridor player who works hard to secure front position and mark in his hands. He and Tom Murphy in the key spots with Franklin playing off them looks a good future forward line. Hughes is not an eye-catcher, more a John Barker type who can create crumbs and do OK when the ball hits the deck. Good long kick. Brings running players into the game with handball – that ability probably suits him to CHF more than FF. What they do here would depend on whether they go or short at 3. If Kennedy falls to 3 they could take Swallow here. Hughes and Dowler are similar and both need gym work.
7. Andrew Swallow - Essendon
Hard to see what direction the Bombers could go in. Pressing need is probably a centre-square midfielder to help Jason Johnson. May feel that they can wait until a later pick or that Cole will do the job. If not perhaps Swallow fits the bill. Can win the ball, run with it and gets goals. Kicking much improved over last year and is clean around the stoppages. Most of their midfield picks over the past couple of years have been outside players, they need a ball-winner to feed them. May like a bigman here but Swallow is best available. Perhaps Austin Lucy to apprentice to Fletcher and Lucas.
8. Beau Dowler – Richmond
Shapes as a mobile CHF in the Ash Hansen style. One who can push up to the wings and mark. Probably best set-shot in the draft so doesn’t need a heap of chances to kick goals. Lacks a little fire in the belly at times and can be hesitant to work the corridor and play in front. Ryder is the other contender but they took a ruckman / forward in Pattison last year and would like someone who covers more ground this year. Needs more gym time than most of the other top-tier bigmen but Richmond are in a re-tooling phase so won’t mind. Can also play CHB which will appeal to the Tigers who have veterans Kellaway and Gaspar to plan for.
9. Austin Lucy – Brisbane
Homegrown FB / CHB with genuine size and quite a bit of mobility. Has a good attack on the ball and is prepared to run the ball out of defence. Thumping kick, needs to hit a few more targets. Bit of a question mark over whether he might end up a bit too bulky and lose some mobility, already a big unit. Have been recruiting midfielders in the main and need to plan for Leppitsch, Michael and Bradshaw retiring. Like his loud voice and organising ability in the backline. Being local won’t hurt. Perhaps a little behind Spangher and Bower at the moment, but has more upside going forward.
10. Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls – Fremantle
A genuine wingman with real flair. Kicks the ball well, has some tricks and pace, and at 186cm has enough height that you can kick to him on the switch of play. Wide open spaces of Subi should suit. Freo need some extra dash through the middle and someone to kick to leading forwards. Again being a local boy won’t hurt. Ryder might be the other option for them to add depth to the forward line. Oakley-Nicholls’ flair will appeal to a rather pedestrian, workmanlike outfit.
Weaver said:A lot of times it is more a case of who do you leave out? Thomas is handy but not much more. Shapes as a soldish BP player in time but for mine is not someone clubs will be rushing to pick. More a rookie list player.
Very very tough to get to the AFL as a midfielder. 20-30 candidates all about the same level.
vinnie_vegas69 said:^^^ I think other than the Varcoe pick (don't think he'll go quite that early) you've got it pretty much right...
Maybe the Swallow pick as well, perhaps switch him and Clark. Richmond still have Coughlan, Tuck, Johnson, Deledio and Tambling to use in the midfield.
Vidman said:Only other comment is that Bradshaw isnt actually that old, he's been around a bit though, think hes only 26
Vidman said:Brisbane seem to make great late round selections, much better round 2 and 3 than round 1. ... Just a thought for any future revisions, it's a trend i've noticed in their picks, safe with the early picks (don't neccesarily work out) and risk takers with later picks (quite often do)