Analysis What list is in the worst state?

[Jeremias]

I've been consistent in my assessment of Carlton since joining BigFooty in 2009.

Have I been wrong?

You've certainly been something.

Chuck a blindfold on and throw enough darts, and you're bound to hit eventually.

 

[Fadge]

You've certainly been something.

Chuck a blindfold on and throw enough darts, and you're bound to hit eventually.

And I've hit Triple 20 every time I've assessed Carlton.

 

[Jeremias]

And I've hit Triple 20 every time I've assessed Carlton.

Good on you mate. At least you've managed to convince yourself and that's all that matters.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Will Day, Finn Maginness, Josh Morris ?

A brilliant young player, someone who was meant to go much earlier, and a late pick unknown.

I'd say we did pretty well in 2019. Will do even better in 2020 with Pick 3 and Pick 22 or 23.

Sorry I was referring to topping up on older players and just generally giving too much game time to older guys who are past it. I shouldn't have wrote drafting. I'm not qualified to judge the quality of your younger guys.

 

[HairyO]

Sorry I was referring to topping up on older players and just generally giving too much game time to older guys who are past it. I shouldn't have wrote drafting. I'm not qualified to judge the quality of your younger guys.

I would think the reason why we played older guys a lot is because there was no VFL for our younger guys to be developed. And Clarko isnt a fan of throwing kids in to fail.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I would think the reason why we played older guys a lot is because there was no VFL for our younger guys to be developed. And Clarko isnt a fan of throwing kids in to fail.

Why does Clarko think his kids will fail? You said Hawthorn's drafting is good.

 

[HairyO]

Why does Clarko think his kids will fail? You said Hawthorn's drafting is good.

Not just the kids. The team. There is clearly nothing to play for so we have quarters of good effort but havent had a full game of effort in 2 months.

The drafting was great just with Will Day alone. Maginness did as well as can be expected in his first game. Hopefully he gets another.

For all the talk about worst state, we really wont know until we get back to a proper competition with proper feeder leagues. Its pure guesswork. But that is where BF shines, and doubles down on certainty. And then ignoring when wrong.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.

Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood

Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies

Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions

Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints

Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo

Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North

St Kildas list is very very young, very few players over 30 and a lot of players under 150 games

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Does anyone else think the idea of a "rebuild" is kind of a myth, or at least that it doesn't work?

I take it that rebuild just means investing heavily in the draft. Most clubs are constantly doing this anyway.

St Kilda has been the big improver this year and they did the opposite of a rebuild. Carlton and Melb have rebuilt to nowhere. Richmond tried "rebuilds" under Terry Wallace and got nowhere.

St Kilda kinda has rebuilt its list just with nailing draft picks from 2016 onwards,

Battle, Long, Marshall, Coffield, Clark, Paton, King, Wilke were all drafted in the 2016 to 2018 drafts with also players getting traded in to compensate for our very bad drafting from 2010 - 2015.

 

[Blue1980]

The problem is your improved performance has come from your old timers ( Murphy E curnow into the mids) so the growth and exposure for your young uns isnt there.

My biggest problem with Mckay and C.Curnow is that they havent torn a game up.

I also think Martins exposure to the GC may hold him back from being the player the Blues want.

Weitering, i know theres a view of him being good to great, but I have him as a serviceable 200 game No.1 pick not a world beater.

As for Walsh- If he sticks to the dinky 15-25m kicks (which he executes well) he'll play 200 games but I dont see the wow factor. I compared him to Rhys Palmer ( who had a similarily great 1st season who didnt stay at that level)

I can see how you rate your list higher than the other 4 clubs you've listed however.

Seems like you have barely watched us this year. Otherwise you’d be rating Walsh and Weitering a lot higher.

Weitering hasn’t been beaten by anyone this year that I can think of. Walsh has been a running machine, kicks goals and taking the game on more.

C Curnow has taken hold of games at times, kicked 7 the game before he got injured last year, Harry McKay many other sides would kill for someone like him on their list. At very worst he is a good forward long term.

Martin has been good, but that’s where our problems lie, we need more class in the midfield.

 

[The Young Chevalier]

I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.

Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood

Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies

Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions

Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints

Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo

Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North

This categorisation is pretty accurate tbh. The only real disputes I have are that GWS could be in literally about 4 of the categories, I seriously can not get a read on that team. The metaphorical cliff mentioned for the group 1 teams isn't necessarily an actual cliff. The shape and length of the inevitable drop off depends a lot on organisation structures, clubs like Sydney and Geelong are able to either avoid the cliff altogether or fall off and climb back up with impressive speed. Whether Collingwood or West Coast will be able to do this remains to be seen.

Also these sort of lists are remarkably fluid, which I think sometimes the AFL media and many fans either ignore or just fail to realise. Over a 12 month period so much can change that it's hard to see patterns that many people claim they see. Port Adelaide for example IMO would've been in group 4 or 6 just last year. Similarly Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood and the Bulldogs have all had relatively meteoric rises over a period of 12 months in recent years. My point being that while this categorisation is accurate now by round 1 next year I would expect 3 or 4 teams to have completely shifted group

 

[Bowakawa]

Essendon strike me as a team in no mans land going forward. List is too good for a rebuild but not good enough to top up to push deep into finals

Been like that for quite a while now

 

[Blue1980]

You may be right. There's no way for me to prove otherwise, and none of us actually KNOW the future. But from the moment Gary Ablett announced he'd signed with Gold Coast, we've been told that we are going to fall in a huge hole.
First it was with Ablett leaving.
Then it was the retirement of Scarlett, Milburn, Joel Corey and Ling and Ottens. then it was how we were going to score without Mooney there as a focal point. Then it was what we will do when Chapman and Johnson are too old. When Bartel goes. When the support cast of Stokes and Kelly goes. Then when our defensive fulcrum in Enright retires. What we'd do without key defenders like Lonergan, Taylor when he goes. As recently as last year, it was 'what's going to happen with Tim Kelly leaving?'

Well it is a decade later, we've missed the finals once - with a record that would have put us in the finals in 8 of the last 10 seasons - and people are still saying it. Yes at some point it will be true.

But I would have thought that after at least 6-7 'critical moments' where everyone has said 'No, this is DEFINITELY the end of the road' that people would have been a little more reluctant to pull the trigger on us.

There hasn’t been a season where I thought you guys would be missing the 8 that I can think of.

But yes cats are the benchmark in terms of staying around the mark.

I think changing coaches helped as they began forward planning as soon as Scott took over. People forget people weren’t expecting a cats flag in 2011 at the start of the year.

 

[Blue1980]

I'm not sure Hawthorn "know where they are at" based on their recent drafting.

Or Clarkos comments about drafting being hard

 

[PhatBoy]

There hasn’t been a season where I thought you guys would be missing the 8 that I can think of.

But yes cats are the benchmark in terms of staying around the mark.

I think changing coaches helped as they began forward planning as soon as Scott took over. People forget people weren’t expecting a cats flag in 2011 at the start of the year.

Doesn’t fit the anti Scott narrative mate unfortunately.

we’ve been accused a lot of not going to the draft enough or hanging on to ageing players etc but it’s actually been the opposite, we haven’t kept anyone on beyond their usefulness age wise and since the golden era there has been a steady but well staggered outgoing of elite players and I expect it to remain the norm

 

[Blue1980]

It can all turn very quickly and I remember thinking similar things 12 months before teh Dogs won a flag... But North list looks to be the most ordinary list I can remember..

Probably the most concerning thing is for a club with few supporters to have basically no players with any spunk... If you are a 12yo kid who supports North, whos number do you put on your back.. Ben Brown is the only one and there is talk he will leave.

Maybe 18 months before dogs flag, but most expected dogs to make finals in 2016 after making them 2015

 

[Niggles]

Ok. Since you're asking, I'd go with the Hawks as the worst. = No future, such a poor list and coach too set in his ways to adapt and evolve Wooden spooners next year at best.

Closely followed by Carlton = A modern day disgrace, such poor leadership from the top down for the last 7 years.

And I'll nominate Essendon to round out the 3 = Such an incompetent franchise ranging all the way from their staff to their players. Poached 3 of Richmond's flag winning manager/coaches yet have such a poor culture after the big failed cheatfest. They're being wasted at such a rabble.

Just like Carton and Hawthorn, all are going nowhere without being able to cheat the cap in which was their usual advantage. In fact, It hurts to say it but all 3 teams are an embarrassing disgrace to my beloved great state.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/attachments/upload?type=post&context[thread_id]=1247525&hash=b561df537d0b7b989f58fdc660f4a33c

 

[roacheee]

Yet were flogged by 17 goals. And Dusty at that time was nowhere near where he got to even 1 year later, despite getting an AA.

made finals 3 previous years to '16
thats the difference
......
made finals 13,14,15
sh*t year '16
piss off lids & vickery
trade in nankervis, caddy, prestia
draft graham
win flag
.......
recipe says you have to make a few finals before you seriously contend
......

imo bombers n blues will be stuck mid-table for a while

 

[HairyO]

made finals 3 previous years to '16
thats the difference
......
made finals 13,14,15
sh*t year '16
piss off lids & vickery
trade in nankervis, caddy, prestia
draft graham
win flag
.......
recipe says you have to make a few finals before you seriously contend
......

imo bombers n blues will be stuck mid-table for a while

Not sure how many of the Dogs players had extensive finals experience before 2016. A few of the older ones would have been in the Prelim fails.

 

[Philthy1]

Or Clarkos comments about drafting being hard

Hitting the draft is no guarantee of success.

Look at the list of number 1 draft picks from 2008 to 2014:
Watts
Scully
Swallow
Patton
Whitfield
Boyd
McCartin

Hardly an inspiring list. Whitfield is really the only one anyone would sell the farm for with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Carlton have quite a bit to work with. Good young talls, a few decent mids. Need to get a good small fwd and improve quality in general but I would much rather have their list than Hawthorn, North and probably Essendon as well.

Essendon is not a terrible side but you just can't see where the growth will come from.

 

[FairKouta]

Ok. Since you're asking, I'd go with the Hawks as the worst. = No future, such a poor list and coach too set in his ways to adapt and evolve Wooden spooners next year at best.

Closely followed by Carlton = A modern day disgrace, such poor leadership from the top down for the last 7 years.

And I'll nominate Essendon to round out the 3 = Such an incompetent franchise ranging all the way from their staff to their players. Poached 3 of Richmond's flag winning manager/coaches yet have such a poor culture after the big failed cheatfest. They're being wasted at such a rabble.

Just like Carton and Hawthorn, all are going nowhere without being able to cheat the cap in which was their usual advantage. In fact, It hurts to say it but all 3 teams are an embarrassing disgrace to my beloved great state.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/attachments/upload?type=post&context[thread_id]=1247525&hash=b561df537d0b7b989f58fdc660f4a33c

Why so triggered

 

[tommyk72]

I agree. The midfielders drafted have been underwhelming. Time to trade in some elite mids After we failed to get shiel and coniglio.

Had to check to see if this was a Hawthorn supporter.

 

[BarbieITFC]

This categorisation is pretty accurate tbh. The only real disputes I have are that GWS could be in literally about 4 of the categories, I seriously can not get a read on that team. The metaphorical cliff mentioned for the group 1 teams isn't necessarily an actual cliff. The shape and length of the inevitable drop off depends a lot on organisation structures, clubs like Sydney and Geelong are able to either avoid the cliff altogether or fall off and climb back up with impressive speed. Whether Collingwood or West Coast will be able to do this remains to be seen.

Also these sort of lists are remarkably fluid, which I think sometimes the AFL media and many fans either ignore or just fail to realise. Over a 12 month period so much can change that it's hard to see patterns that many people claim they see. Port Adelaide for example IMO would've been in group 4 or 6 just last year. Similarly Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood and the Bulldogs have all had relatively meteoric rises over a period of 12 months in recent years. My point being that while this categorisation is accurate now by round 1 next year I would expect 3 or 4 teams to have completely shifted group

Absolutely agree.

3-4 years ago I would have put the Cats in Group 1 alongside Sydney and the Hawks - make hay but watch out for the cliff. But, due to list decisions and player progression the three lists all sit in really different places now.

It’s not certain that the Pies and Eagles will fall off the cliff - that will be defined by what they’ve done at the trade/draft table over the last two years and what they do in the next two years.

 

[Saint]

Been like that for quite a while now

Probably something which happened a few years ago which set us on our heels and we've never really recovered. Always going to be a long road back.

It's quite right that the draft's a lottery. But the proof is that all the dynasties of the last 15 years (post-Brisbane) have been built from it. There isn't a premiership side over the last 15 years which hasn't involved a core of players who were drafted using high draft picks (or father-sons in the case of Geelong).

So if you're a club right now in the bottom half of the ladder (caveat that this might not apply to teams who have had lots of injuries this year) with few high draft picks, you've got years to wait before you see any real success. And it's still not guaranteed. I don't care if you're West Coast with 100,000 members and money to burn, or GWS or GC with few fans but lots of draft concessions, this fundamental rule still applies and will always apply.