When will the AFL see a return on their investment on GWS and Gold Coast?

[Dirty Bird]

So what would be called R.U. heartland ?

Private schools in Sydney - So North Shore probably.

 

[RedV3x]

Private schools in Sydney - So North Shore probably.

Both, not as strong as they used to be.

 

[Walshawk]

bs

There's at least 14 new junior clubs (there's 3 I'm not sure about, so maybe up to 17) in Sydney since when I left. 6 of them I can outright say are in Giants territory, and it comes down to arguments sake as to whether Concord or Lane Cove are as well.

Juniors has just about doubled, while seniors even more so. When I left seniors was only running about 3 divisions deep, and womens was only just starting (I know there was a club in the south - Power I think which was just women) These days mens AND womens both run 5 divisions deep.

So, if the majority of new clubs (say 8-11 of 14-17 clubs) are in Swans territory (Concord and Lane Cove probably are as well, depending on where there grounds are), then that is literally most of the growth.

Go have a look at Auskick. Find a Club | Play AFL
Half of the centres in the Giants zone are no longer running programs. That tells me that there is not the take up in those areas that the AFL thought there would be.

My contention is that, even if there was no GWS, Sydney would have had similar growth, due to the success of the Swans.

 

[Consolaçao]

The Eels form is down from previous years which will be having a sizeable impact. The Storm's move to a new stadium in virtually the same spot has assisted its sustained increase in attendance. I doubt the Perth's stadium location is any better than Subiaco but even taking into account its bigger capacity, the vastly improved facilities would have helped increase Freo's attendances.

Regardless of the size of attendances, clubs generally significantly benefit from improved financial returns from better corporate facilities, premium seating, bar/restaurant sales etc. Its happened all round the world such as Yankee Stadium. The NRL clubs finances are likely to be considerably strengthened from the 3 new stadia and that's a key reason why I made reference to them.


It's 13 seasons into their existence and the Giants have already enjoyed a sustained period of on field success with 7 finals victories to their name. Tomorrow's attendance will be a further indicator of the success of the project and their future prospects.

No one can accurately predict what their on field results will be over the medium to long term but this is a bloody tough league with 17 (and probably soon 18) fierce competitors. The long periods of success of Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong are the exceptions rather than the rule.

Their previous period of success was greatly assisted by generous start up concessions, the benefit of which is reducing. Whilst they have a fertile academy zone in the Riverina, Canberra and Broken Hill there is no stay at home factor and they have lost quite a few of their products (Hopper, Steele, Williams, Finlayson, Kennedy) to other clubs. Cameron and Taranto are starring elsewhere. Their small crowds are no doubt a significant factor in players wanting to leave. Apart from the on field impact, this must be demoralising to their fans. Still, they have a competitive list and other clubs aren't going to keep quiet if more concessions are demanded.

On field success is by far the most critical factor for the growth of any club and I reckon its more likely than they not they won't get the magnitude of success to substantially grow the club off field. Anyway, time will tell as they say.

Thinking about 'sliding doors' moments, how big would GWS be now had Buddy gone there rather than to the Swans?

 

[RedV3x]

Half of the centres in the Giants zone are no longer running programs. .

So where's the before and after documentation to substantiate your claim ?

 

[RedV3x]

Thinking about 'sliding doors' moments, how big would GWS be now had Buddy gone there rather than to the Swans?

In hindsight I doubt if there'd have been much of a difference.
He could have made a difference but winning will make the biggest difference.
Buddy in a winning team has been a good boost.

 

[The Educator]

So, if the majority of new clubs (say 8-11 of 14-17 clubs) are in Swans territory (Concord and Lane Cove probably are as well, depending on where there grounds are), then that is literally most of the growth.

Go have a look at Auskick. Find a Club | Play AFL
Half of the centres in the Giants zone are no longer running programs. That tells me that there is not the take up in those areas that the AFL thought there would be.

My contention is that, even if there was no GWS, Sydney would have had similar growth, due to the success of the Swans.

Highly likely the Swans have driven most of the growth since the Giants have been around. It certainly doesn't mean that the Giants have had no impact let alone that they won't increasingly have an impact in coming decades

If you plant a seedling next to an established tree, the established tree will continue to put on far more mass than the seedling tree for a long time

 

[madmug]

So, if the majority of new clubs (say 8-11 of 14-17 clubs) are in Swans territory (Concord and Lane Cove probably are as well, depending on where there grounds are), then that is literally most of the growth.

Go have a look at Auskick. Find a Club | Play AFL
Half of the centres in the Giants zone are no longer running programs. That tells me that there is not the take up in those areas that the AFL thought there would be.

My contention is that, even if there was no GWS, Sydney would have had similar growth, due to the success of the Swans.

The Swans have had a 3 decade head start on GWS. They had soaked up local AFL followers & expats from down south. If not fully supporting expats, but they would've bought memberships. They also got a boost due to the Thugby Loig wars of the mid 1990's.
GWS will struggle with the generational change theme. There is no timeline, no guarantee of making much headway with any number of generations. Locals don't go to footy like AFL states do. They also have Aleague, RU & NRL opposition. So its a tough, & expensive ask, by any measure.

 

[kalex6251]

no doubt an exiled aussie will provide as with their patented contrarian explainer ... that aside, should be a good game

 

[kalex6251]

its interesting how the age covers the storm .... does the SMH pay the same attention to either the swans or giants?

appreciate nine news has an investment in rugby league but the imbalance in coverage should concern the AFL (also raises questions about how much control/influence sydney HQ exerts over editorial decisions exercised by the age)

off-topic but might provide some useful context to the media challenges afl faces in sydney .... ninenews ran the same story on a scientific discovery in both the age and smh yesterday

• main webpage on the age ran with 'australian scientists discover ...... '
• main webpage on the smh ran with 'sydney scientists discover .......'

click on the article and it talks about a joint csiro and swinburne university research effort ........ no mention of any sydney uni that i could find (to be fair - it does mention the parkes telescope)

and those north of the murray reckon we southerners have an inferiority complex

 

[Walshawk]

no doubt an exiled aussie will provide as with their patented contrarian explainer ... that aside, should be a good game

That is awesome. Pies need to be in GC & GWS every season.

 

[Walshawk]

Highly likely the Swans have driven most of the growth since the Giants have been around. It certainly doesn't mean that the Giants have had no impact let alone that they won't increasingly have an impact in coming decades

If you plant a seedling next to an established tree, the established tree will continue to put on far more mass than the seedling tree for a long time

Excellent analogy. I guess my point is - at what point do you accept than perhaps you planted the second tree in the wrong spot, or that you didn’t really need a second tree in the first place. Soccer in Melbourne was weakened by the second and third trees. I believe that he second AFL tree in Sydney needs some work, otherwise it will either die or simply just detract from the first tree.

 

[RedV3x]

Highly likely the Swans have driven most of the growth since the Giants have been around. It certainly doesn't mean that the Giants have had no impact let alone that they won't increasingly have an impact in coming decades

If you plant a seedling next to an established tree, the established tree will continue to put on far more mass than the seedling tree for a long time

The AFL established the Giants because the Swans weren't penetrating westwards.
When the Swans played at Homebush the fans stated they hated the place after the initial euphoria of playing at a large stadium wore off.

 

[The Educator]

off-topic but might provide some useful context to the media challenges afl faces in sydney .... ninenews ran the same story on a scientific discovery in both the age and smh yesterday

• main webpage on the age ran with 'australian scientists discover ...... '
• main webpage on the smh ran with 'sydney scientists discover .......'

click on the article and it talks about a joint csiro and swinburne university research effort ........ no mention of any sydney uni that i could find (to be fair - it does mention the parkes telescope)

and those north of the murray reckon we southerners have an inferiority complex

The channel 9 / fairfax sub editing is all done in Sydney now. So the same person would have wrote both head lines

And someone in Sydney would have decided to publish the cringeworthy "Sorry Melbourne, Sydney is better" (or something like that) written by a Melbourne freelancer who I could not find any other evidence actually existed (I now can't even find the article!)

The age relies on its legacy audience but is basically "weekend at bernie's"

 

[RedV3x]

The Swans have had a 3 decade head start on GWS. They had soaked up local AFL followers & expats from down south. If not fully supporting expats, but they would've bought memberships.

South Melbourne did the appropriate research and chose wisely.

They also got a boost due to the Thugby Loig wars of the mid 1990's.

Urban myth.

GWS will struggle with the generational change theme. There is no timeline, no guarantee of making much headway with any number of generations.

Onfield performance is always important.

Locals don't go to footy like AFL states do.

Yet they go to Swans games!

They also have Aleague, RU & NRL opposition.

Again, it's not direct competition - it's generational change competition and media exposure.
But think about this Australia's population has grown many fold through immigration with non-Australian Football virgins
yet if anything Australian Football is arguably much better positioned than ever.

So its a tough, & expensive ask, by any measure.

I have my Sydney relatives visiting a.t.m. they say the Perth Pirates is a poor idea
primarily because the NRL wont spend the money like the AFL does.

 

[The Educator]

Excellent analogy. I guess my point is - at what point do you accept than perhaps you planted the second tree in the wrong spot, or that you didn’t really need a second tree in the first place. Soccer in Melbourne was weakened by the second and third trees. I believe that he second AFL tree in Sydney needs some work, otherwise it will either die or simply just detract from the first tree.

Gave you a like for your first sentence!

I don't think soccer was weakened by its "second tree" in Melbourne as an aside. The derbies were massive in the first few years. Third team has definitely fallen flat though

I think the worst outcome for the second tree in Sydney is it follows a very slow growth path and ends up much smaller than it would otherwise be. The upside is still massive. I can't see how it adversely impacts on the Swans beyond out competiting it (i.e. on the upside).....but even then you would be looking at a far more intense / richer rivalry

The only way it dies is if the game overall withers which there is no sign of happening at all. The game is deeply structured and committed to an equalised model and to a long term growth strategy in the north of the country.

 

[RedV3x]

Excellent analogy.

A tree is a tree whereas two trees are a forest.

The fact is that two teams resident in a capital city gives weekly coverage - a mutual boost to both teams.
The fact is that two teams resident in a capital city tend to average out fluctuations - one up and one down.
The fact is that two teams resident in a capital city gives a good FTA coverage.

Two teams per city (in Australia) is pretty much ideal.
More doesn't really add that more and less is really a lot less.

 

[madmug]

South Melbourne did the appropriate research and chose wisely.




Urban myth.


Onfield performance is always important.



Yet they go to Swans games!



Again, it's not direct competition - it's generational change competition and media exposure.
But think about this Australia's population has grown many fold through immigration with non-Australian Football virgins
yet if anything Australian Football is arguably much better positioned than ever.



I have my Sydney relatives visiting a.t.m. they say the Perth Pirates is a poor idea
primarily because the NRL wont spend the money like the AFL does.

Urban myth? I was there, so whatever.
They go to Swans games. Thats the point, The Swans soaked up local Aussie rules support from both locals & expats. GWS have to change a culture of either NRL, Soccer etc, or getting them to go to a sports event in the first place.

 

[Our Game]

Thinking about 'sliding doors' moments, how big would GWS be now had Buddy gone there rather than to the Swans?

If my aunty had balls she would be my uncle!

 

[GC2015]

With a majority of the crowd being Collingwood fans i would suggest

Here you go. If this is accurate then that would mean the majority of the 25k tickets sold AREN'T Collingwood fans. A decent amount of the alleged 12k Collingwood fans would live on the Gold Coast/Brisbane and potentially also regularly attend Suns home games as their secondary team when Collingwood aren't playing. So the sell out is really more of a reflection of the appetite for footy in SEQ when the two teams are playing well than anything else. The same fixture barely pulled 16k last year so it really is a case of winning being the main factor pulling in the fans, which in this case equates to an extra 9k fans when compared to last year.

 

[RedV3x]

I was there,

I attended every Swans game during that period and not once did I hear any mention of new found fans.

They go to Swans games.

Huh ? swans fans go to swans games.

The Swans soaked up local Aussie rules support from both locals & expats.

Yes, "South Melbourne did the appropriate research and chose wisely"

GWS have to change a culture of either NRL, Soccer etc, or getting them to go to a sports event in the first place.

No way. Any new sport has to find people that are attracted to that sport.
The Swans chose the area that had the most potential supporters.
The Swans never "converted" anybody.
The Giants don't have that luxury and are targeting youngsters that will provide generational change.
It's a tough ask but IMO they are on track.

 

[Consolaçao]

Anyway, to the purpose of the thread. This pretty mediocre team, which hasn’t been in the 8 all year, and more likely than not to miss finals like they have every season since they started, is about to play in front of a sellout crowd of 24,000.
What a disaster.

 

[madmug]

Anyway, to the purpose of the thread. This pretty mediocre team, which hasn’t been in the 8 all year, and more likely than not to miss finals like they have every season since they started, is about to play in front of a sellout crowd of 24,000.
What a disaster.

24.000 only because Collingwood turned up. More Pies than locals.

 

[RedV3x]

24.000 only because Collingwood turned up. More Pies than locals.

Well that would make the government extremely happy - look at all that imported revenue !

 

[GC2015]

24.000 only because Collingwood turned up. More Pies than locals.

A lot of those Pies fans ARE locals. We know the amount of travelling Pies at the game was heavily restricted by the Melbourne Airport issue yesterday morning/afternoon but 22.4k of the 25k tickets sold still showed up. I think you'd even find a percentage of the Pies fans that went to the game yesterday actually support the Suns as their secondary team and would show up to Suns games in their red and gold in other home games. It's fairly common up here for a local AFL fan to support their original Victorian team as their number 1 club and loosely adopt the Suns as their secondary team. We know Collingwood have the biggest supporter base in the land and there's a ton of Victorian ex pats living in SEQ so it's not really surprising. They support the Pies but also want the Suns to do well in weeks that they aren't playing Collingwood.

The challenge for the Suns is finding a way to cultivate the fairly large amount of footy supporters based on the GC. Potential is there but the team just hasn't been able to win enough games to keep the local footy community engaged. The crowd last night was a little taste of what's possible on the Gold Coast.