When will the Carlton FC Arrive?

[Chief]

Part 2 of this thread is here:

When will the Carlton FC Arrive? Part 2

PART 1 of this thread is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/when-will-the-carlton-fc-arrive.1259822/ ============= We're all thinking it. We're watching this story play out for the 4th time in the last 20 years and it's the same story every time. They have a great list of exciting...

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[LordLucifer]

He was okay in a few games last year. Bad in some others.

Thought he was one of our better players last night....

Yeah, those three 'out on the fulls' under no pressure whatsoever were on his highlights reel.

 

[doppleganger]

I would say their lack of ability to develop players has been a far bigger problem than their drafting and trading.

They are related.

When you trade for hacks like Aaron Mullet, Matt Shaw, Cam O'Shea, Darcy Lang, Matthew Lobbe, Billie Smedts, Jarrod Pickett, Rhys Palmer, Alex Fasolo, Mitch McGovern, Will Setterfield you are not improving the list.

None of those guys come in, help show the way for the kids, set high standards on the track, where to position yourself during a game, or even be a big body to help protect the kids.

No surprise that the talented kids didn't come on when they are introduced to a club with a losing culture, with no strong leaders who are just churning through VFL level players.

At least Newnes was previously part of the Saints leadership group, he is an example of the type of player they should have been looking at when SOS was bringing in dud after dud.

And now they pivoted from duds and instead are overpaying for outside flankers like Saad and Martin who are cream on the top type of players.

 

[carnthedons]

Since 2010, teams that start 0-2 only make the finals 8.6% of the time. Its a sound indication.

Do you have percentage of finalists who started 0-2? I imagine on average less than 8 teams start 0-2 in a given year

 

[beema limapep]

Do you have percentage of finalists who started 0-2? I imagine on average less than 8 teams start 0-2 in a given year

Not sure on your first Q as in if they go on to win the flag?

4-5 teams on 0-2 this year and 3-4 other years.

 

[carnthedons]

Not sure on your first Q as in if they go on to win the flag?

4-5 teams on 0-2 this year and 3-4 other years.

Nah so you said if a team starts 0-2 they’re an 8.6% chance of making the finals, so roughly 1 in 12 teams who start 0-2 go on to make the finals. If there were 8 teams who started the season 0-2 on average it would likely be close to that number. I’m interested in what percentage of those who finish in the 8 start 0-2 (if there’s 88 finalists across 2010-2020 how many started 0-2?).

I looked it up, only 5/88 finalists are from 0-2 (5.7%)

 

[PP34]

Yeah, those three 'out on the fulls' under no pressure whatsoever were on his highlights reel.

Went at 87%. Were we watching the same player?

 

[LordLucifer]

Went at 87%. Were we watching the same player?

Well I was, with both eyes wide open too, he was terrible.

 

[Davo-27]

when will Carlton Arrive?

it could happen soon or in a couple of years, it depends on the people running their club.

the improvements at Carlton recently:
1. bringing in one of the best fitness trainers in the League, making them somewhat fit and competitive has made a big diference to them looking like winning games instead of being embarrassed
2. the inclusions of Martin, Saad, Williams(half back/wing, he isnt much of a mid tbh), Newnes has helped their core group develop
3. even though their recruiting/drafting department seems like one of the worst in the AFL (from what i have seen and the knowledge i have gained from watching the u18's), they have brought in guys like Walsh, Kemp who is yet to debut and Silvagni has been useful although he cops some undue criticism, Tom De Koning

12

Tom De Koning

Age

26

Ht

201cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.0

4star

CL

0.5

2star

HO

1.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.0

4star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

1.5

5star

ect

their issues right now are that Cripps has devolved into an average player for the last 12 months and seems like he doesnt care about winning games of footy (they need to not ruin their salary cap and pay him under a million a year, just a tip), they are giving games to players who are not performing for them, the likes of Petrevski-Seton, Dow, Kennedy, O'Brien, M.McGovern, Casboult, Setterfield all play half-heartedly or just arent good enough, some of which get paid some big dollars, either get them to improve their output or drop them for more passionate youngsters imo, gifting them opportunity does nothing for your club if you get no immediate or long term benefit from them.

the players i would be excited for if i was a Carlton Supporter would be
Jack Silvagni - decent 3rd tall forward, can be a danger around goals
Zac Williams - good half back or wing, not sure on midfield
Patrick Cripps - if he can get back to caring about winning
Harry McKay - dont let him play on when he marks within 25m, he threw away 2 goals in round 1
Tom De Koning - im assuming he is injured atm?
Liam Jones - dont play him as FB, he needs to be the intercepter around half back, that is where he is most valuable imo
Sam Docherty - im not the biggest fan of Docherty, but he is a solid piece in the backline
Sam Walsh - has been carrying the burden of their midfield for 12 months, needs help in there
Jack Martin - he is a star, just needs to stay fit and healthy and he will be a joy to watch
Caleb Marchbank - i really liked him before his injury, hope he gets back to that level again
Jacob Weitering - he is a solid FB now, he isnt at the Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

29

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

or Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

28

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

level yet, but he is getting there imo
Zac Fisher - has a lot of talent, but has been injured and a bit inconsistent recently
Jack Newnes - solid winger, had some good moments last season
Ed Curnow - not pretty to watch, but he is effective and always puts himself into a contest, doesnt shirk his responsibility
Michael Gibbons - loves a sneaky goal, plays like Breust in that he plays the poacher role
Adam Saad - one of the best small defenders in the League.

Jack Carroll and Brodie Kemp when they get their debuts have a good chance of being exciting talents, Williamson has been good this year from what i have seen, Pittonet can play a role as a competitive ruck, Eddie Betts can pop up with an effort or 2, but he is nearly done i think?, Nic Newman has had some good games for the blues since coming over from the Swans, Luke Parks could debut this year as well, solid 3rd tall interceptor defender.

Charlie Curnow is unlikely to be the player he was after all these injuries ect, but good luck to him.

the rest on the list need to improve substantially, but i think Carlton are on the right track in some areas and are in need of improvement in others.

 

[Kwality]

I would say their norm smith moment was getting whacked for cap breaches

Carlton are still paying for that and John Elliot's arrogance

Whats your excuse? Absolute nonsense.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

2030 Oscar Judd, start clearing cap space at VISY for him

 

[Fadge]

when will Carlton Arrive?

it could happen soon or in a couple of years, it depends on the people running their club.

We've been hearing this for 20 years.

I vote 'never'.

 

[HairyO]

2015 to 2018 were sub 80% percentage years. That an aggressive rebuild. Add seven years before a flag on historical stats for all clubs.

so 2025 is the start of the window. Although finals should be in the next couple of years

And how do they keep all those top draft picks under the salary cap?

 

[LoungeLizard]

And how do they keep all those top draft picks under the salary cap?

 

[LewyBroome]

When the nerdling-vanilla-nothings stop getting picked in your top 10 (O'Brien and Dow). Cut the losses. Kemp and Carroll to replace.

 

[Pessimistic]

When the nerdling-vanilla-nothings stop getting picked in your top 10 (O'Brien and Dow). Cut the losses. Kemp and Carroll to replace.

‘waiting for north to give us juicy draft picks for them’

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

A coach who can win tight games.

 

[Pessimistic]

A coach who can win tight games.

Ratten? It’s a joke that Clarkson would go to a club with such a rotten heirarchy

 

[Brad Goodman]

Serious question. Why does the media give this club so much credit and regularly talk about them being on the verge of jumping into a finals position? After tonight's result, they've started the last nine seasons 0-2.

Their results in the last 20 years:

2001 - 5th (semi final)
2002 - 16th (wooden spoon)
2003 - 15th
2004 - 11th
2005 - 16th (wooden spoon)
2006 - 16th (wooden spoon)
2007 - 15th
2008 - 11th
2009 - 7th (elimination final)
2010 - 8th (elimination final)

2011 - 5th (semi final)
2012 - 10th
2013 - 8th (semi final)
2014 - 13th
2015 - 18th (wooden spoon)
2016 - 14th
2017 - 16th
2018 - 18th (wooden spoon)
2019 - 16th
2020 - 11th

Three finals wins, five finals appearances (their most recent of which they didn't really earn), five wooden spoons, nine bottom 4 finishes and six mid-ladder finishes that were outside the finals.

Essendon cop a lot of grief for their lack of success in the last 20 years yet they've had double the amount of finals wins Carlton have had in the last 20 years and have received 1/5 of the amount of wooden spoons Carlton have.

I know my club has performed poorly for the last 10 years as well but the media have never really talked us up as finals chances but Carlton are constantly getting pumped up by the media.

I don't get it. What's with the media love affair for Carlton?

To be fair the natural progression after 18th-16th-11th is finals so it’s not entirely unrealistic to suggest they should improve. However, their bottom few players are still pretty terrible and if Cripps isn’t dominating they don’t look nearly as impressive at the top end.

 

[Toump Ass]

Bring back Bolton.

 

[Black Panther]

 

[JHF1870]

I think their last 7 years of first round draft picks are pretty good, it's the trading and the team structure that is the issue.

 

[CarnTheScray]

I think their last 7 years of first round draft picks are pretty good, it's the trading and the team structure that is the issue.

I disagree I think their drafting has been poor.

 

[JHF1870]

I disagree I think their drafting has been poor.

I think they have, but haven't adequately built around those players like other sides have.

 

[thecotch]

How many elite players would you say Carlton have?

walsh. The end.

 

[RUNVS]

and they came early and their supporters were left very disappointed.