When Will We Be Ready?

[SleepingGiant]

2012 Finals barring injuries.

 

[_RT_]

Just a quick question or two for all.

1/ When do people think we are a REALISTIC chance to, firstly make finals with a reasonably competetive team that has the potential to go on and become a top 4 side?

I phrase it this way because i think most of us would agree it is possible to make finals with an ordinary team and slip back into obscurity for awhile.

In all honesty I can see us sneaking into the 8 as early as next year, with natural improvement and a couple of sides above us that could well fall away we should find ourselves right in amongst it. I think if we did make it, we're likely to be similar to Carlton of 09-10, we get in there, we'll give is a good shake but will fall just short of coming away with the win. I can see us doing that for 2012 & 2013, although in 2013 we might just manage to sneak a win in the first week of the finals before being knocked out the second week. From 2014 I can see us being a top 4 side on a regular basis.

2/ When do people think we will be a realistic chance for a flag. I suppose that means when we become a genuine top 4 side.

With a bit of luck I reckon we could be genuine flag chance from 2015 onwards. By this time we should have that core group of 100-200 gamers that have come through together and as I mentioned above are starting to enter their prime. However, it may take us a couple of cracks at it to finally get there, similar to the Pies in 08-09 before they won last year, before we finally win one around 2017.

3/ How many players on average do people think we will turn over the next 3 yrs including rookies.

At the end of the 2013 season I see our core list being made up of the following group:
28+: Foley Maric
24-27: Jackson, Morton, Deledio, Nahas, Grigg, Houli, Connors, Edwards, Riewoldt.
21-24: Rance, Post, Cotchin, Vickery, Astbury, Martin, Grimes, Griffiths, Dea, Batchelor, Helbig, Conca

Thats 22 players from our list this year that I still see being part of the club heading into when I believe our window should be opening. That means almost half the list from this year will have been moved on over the next 3 off seasons. I'm undecided about MacDonald Derickx Contin Jakobi & Heslin because they haven't had a chance to play yet, however of that group I'd suggest that only 2 of them will come good and be around heading into 2014.

That means 7-8 players a year will be getting turned over and when you consider that includes both senior & rookie list players its probably about right.

Looking at that group above and putting a side together it doesn't actually look that bad a lineup and ties in with what I was saying above about how our window could open up a bit earlier than what we're thinking here.

B: Grimes Rance Dea
HB: Houli Post Batchelor
C: Deledio Martin Conca
HF: Helbig Griffiths Connors
F: Vickery Riewoldt Nahas
R: Maric Cotchin Foley
INT from: Grigg Jackson Astbury Morton Edwards

Obviously depending on drafts and trading that side could and should look a fair bit better which should only improve our chances of opening the window earlier.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

B: Grimes Rance Dea
HB: Houli Post Batchelor
C: Deledio Martin Conca
HF: Helbig Griffiths Connors
F: Vickery Riewoldt Nahas
R: Maric Cotchin Foley
INT from: Grigg Jackson Astbury Morton Edwards

Obviously depending on drafts and trading that side could and should look a fair bit better which should only improve our chances of opening the window earlier.

Personally, I struggle to see that side playing finals next year.

Dea - would have to improve a hell of a lot to be first 22 in a finals team. Will be depth for a couple more seasons IMO.
Post - I have my fingers crossed, but still not convinced he is in our top three KPDs. I'm in the pool of supporters who wonder if Griffiths may get tried there next year.
Helbig - will need at least another season before he's ready to consistently play a role IMO.
Connors - I'm still not a believer.
Maric - am worried this guy won't be much of an upgrade on Graham, have to wait and see.

We would also need Grimes and Vickery to improve again, as well as Conca and Batchelor to take another decent step forward. Although these things are quite probable, but we saw Astbury stagnate, so there are no guarantees.

Just my thoughts, debatable I know.

 

[captain blood 17]

Santa, i reckon 9th next year (2012), 6th 2013, top 4 2014.
We are still about 4-5 players off getting a serious list. Still need a ruck, a CHB, 3rd forward, crumber and a wing/onballer.

 

[_RT_]

Personally, I struggle to see that side playing finals next year.

Dea - would have to improve a hell of a lot to be first 22 in a finals team. Will be depth for a couple more seasons IMO.
Post - I have my fingers crossed, but still not convinced he is in our top three KPDs. I'm in the pool of supporters who wonder if Griffiths may get tried there next year.
Helbig - will need at least another season before he's ready to consistently play a role IMO.
Connors - I'm still not a believer.
Maric - am worried this guy won't be much of an upgrade on Graham, have to wait and see.

We would also need Grimes and Vickery to improve again, as well as Conca and Batchelor to take another decent step forward. Although these things are quite probable, but we saw Astbury stagnate, so there are no guarantees.

Just my thoughts, debatable I know.

Not expecting that side to play finals next year or any year in fact, just posted it to show how the players I think will still be around in 2 seasons time fit into a lineup. As I said with drafting and trading that side should change dramatically between now and then. Which can only be a good thing as it will only improve our depth and ability to compete with the better teams.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

Not expecting that side to play finals next year or any year in fact, just posted it to show how the players I think will still be around in 2 seasons time fit into a lineup. As I said with drafting and trading that side should change dramatically between now and then. Which can only be a good thing as it will only improve our depth and ability to compete with the better teams.

Fair enough, I also hold hope we can at least introduce two ready made players - trade for one and draft one - minimum. That makes a reasonable difference. Then who knows, one unexpected depth player may also step up - eg. White, Farmer, Connors - similar to Nahas this year.

 

[santa claws]

just something that has been bugging me and i keep on getting differing answers.

westhoff, hicks, and hislop are gone. but we have another 4 rookies on the list of whom three we have had for two seasons.those three are contin, orielly, and miller.

if we want to keep them do we have to upgrade them to the list proper, or do we have the ability to re rookie them for another season.
if it is the former are we likely upgrade any of them and who is the most likely.
imo while a staunch advocate of aggresively useing the rookie system i dont think it a good yr to be loading up with rookies.

 

[dwwaino]

For top 4-6 like everyone I don't reckon until the 2013-2015 window. Having said that though I'll be a little surprised and disappointed if we don't play finals next year, even if it's to get pumped first round. We were almost there this year and if we won the games we were 'meant' to have won we would of made it in. In my opinion that will be the difference between this year and next. Next year we should be a little more confident in the games we're meant to have already scratched on the board. A finals appearance, albeit a lame one, would be a great springboard into 2013 as it will make the players hungry.

Dimma said numerous times the difference between this year and last was the attitude changed from hoping to win to believing they can win or at least compete. Playing a final next year (and I honestly believe we have what it takes) will give the young squad some self belief and keep a healthy culture that promotes winning and not excuses. There isn't a lot of Maric love and I'll admit I'm not a fan either, but I'm so done with Graham I think even the 1% improvement he should offer will be enough to give our blokes a look in. King and Nahas were almost goners and they knew it and stepped their game up. It has been so public all year even from the club that we're looking for a ruck and spud Spiros did absolutely diddly squat to improve or convince anyone that he wants his spot. Hopefully the addition of someone like Morris will convince players such as Farmer to lift as well as the addition of any half-decent player we add before 2012 to the rest of the team.

/2cents.

 

[True Thylacine]

Excellent read and great thread all concerned. Maybe I am the ultimate optimist but I genuinely believe with the addition of a quality ruckman we will make finals next year and be a regular contender thereafter. As my thread "What about the INs" demonstrated we now have developed considerable depth, finally! Yes we can improve in several postions, but who can't and of course we will roll over 6 or so players and hopefully upgrade as a matter of course. No team has so called elite players in every position, its actually more about how they play as a team which hides a multitude of sins at times but raises everyone when done right. We have a great spine, very very good midfield and options a plenty elsewhere. Piss poor rucks are holding our midfield development back and are our consistent achilles heel in close tight games. Fix that and I see no reason why we cant play finals in 2012 and be competitive at that level....huge provisos on injuries and fixture!

 

[_RT_]

just something that has been bugging me and i keep on getting differing answers.

westhoff, hicks, and hislop are gone. but we have another 4 rookies on the list of whom three we have had for two seasons.those three are contin, orielly, and miller.

if we want to keep them do we have to upgrade them to the list proper, or do we have the ability to re rookie them for another season.
if it is the former are we likely upgrade any of them and who is the most likely.
imo while a staunch advocate of aggresively useing the rookie system i dont think it a good yr to be loading up with rookies.

Miller has only been on the list 1 year. Contin can be rookie listed for another year if he agrees, while O'Rielly being an international rookie can be rookie for 3 years without any problems IIRC

 

[TOOs_Finest]

So, I wonder how the following appointments will affect our next couple of years:

Melbourne... Neeld
Bulldogs... McCarthy
Adelaide... Sanderson
Fremantle... Lyon
Saints... ???

All clubs in our neck of the woods on the ladder. Freo's resurgence may be stunted by a new coaching style.

Saints and Bulldogs surely about to re-build. Dees and Crows in a bit of turmoil, may take a season or so to adapt.

We need to jump the Roos and the Verucas next year to be solid finals contenders.

 

[CoggaRules]

So, I wonder how the following appointments will affect our next couple of years:

Melbourne... Neeld
Bulldogs... McCarthy
Adelaide... Sanderson
Fremantle... Lyon
Saints... ???

All clubs in our neck of the woods on the ladder. Freo's resurgence may be stunted by a new coaching style.

Saints and Bulldogs surely about to re-build. Dees and Crows in a bit of turmoil, may take a season or so to adapt.

We need to jump the Roos and the Verucas next year to be solid finals contenders.

Since the new trend is for untried coaches, tipping the aints will opt for past players and give Fiora the top job with Patto as his assistant. They will go with an interstater as a recruiter JON and Grant Thomas as the director of comedy..

 

[sante]

The aim for 2012 should be finals and I think we can do it, but every year it gets tougher and tougher and anything can happen.

 

[santa claws]

Miller has only been on the list 1 year. Contin can be rookie listed for another year if he agrees, while O'Rielly being an international rookie can be rookie for 3 years without any problems IIRC

cheers RT so contin is the only iffy one. i wonder if they will offer him a spot on the list proper. would be lucky if thats the case.

 

[tigs2010]

cheers RT so contin is the only iffy one. i wonder if they will offer him a spot on the list proper. would be lucky if thats the case.

Would doubt it. Would have played him otherwise. Reckon they kept him in VFL in hope to keep him for a 3rd year and not have anyone else interested.

 

[Kapital city TIGER]

I hope to see a red hot crack next year whilst still blooding a few youngsters

Newy, Jacko, Tucky to all miss a few each (rather than Tucky missing most, or Foley out injured 2010)

Im not as obsessed as many with our rucks - reckon Gus still has something to offer - he looks like he has really worked on his fitness this year after monstering up last and still adjusting workworkwork big fella! and lay off the King Island Brie (more for me!). Browne got a lot of work to do but still young and I loved his effort. Wouldnt mind us playing 1 ruck and an extra pinch hitter (Posty say) and putting Viks in the middle more. If he can compete in the ruck weve hit gold he has shown he can play as a big fwd already, Posty and Astbury and Griffith all need a good go at key fwd. Goo a smokey too.

Need another hard body to go in guts - ? could it be Farmer? - needs some speed, but I reckon he is worth persiting.

Ive always reckoned Kingy ideal mid due to the muscle he packs and propensity of opp to take him high - will need someone stocky to fill in for Jacko/Tucky and add some grunt.

LIDS I reckon is it. in the guts and attacking. its what he is for.

- weve a good crop of defenders now if Grimes and Batch come back ok (Moore too in all liklihood) - other than a smart defender to shut down Milne Betts et al (another smokey role for Goo? - athletic and fast enough)

I reckon we are looking good back, Rance Houli Thursty all went well, not far off anyway - another rebounder if Lids goes into guts / fwd more ? Conners wtf happend to this guy? showed some promise before dissapearing - or am I from a parrallel universe where he doesnt exist? DOES AYONE KNOW WHO i MEAN??? - ANOTHER RANGA!!!?

Bludy Hell Taylor let us down badly - coulda really added something to our attack, Nahas has shown some quality but Kingy goes missing too often and noone else springs to mind, would be nice to stack the line with another genuine threat to give Jumpin Jack some space - ANYONE got something positive to report on Troy? - he aint cut yet is he?, perhaps he has secretly been working out and running a million miles and will come back to play wing / fwd and piss Jack off by giving him a run in the Coleman???

its going to be a long summer, eh.

genuine crack at 2012 and based on this year would expect to be a good chance to sneak in:
Adelaide will bounce back,
Saints to slip a bit,
Dogs to consolidate,
Pt to embarrass Sth Aus,
Freo maintain the worst of their form, and I think weve got more immediate imprevement than Roos or Dons

suprise Blues r1 as they are settled into thinking they are serious finals contender, and their next Sept is a long way away and we will have turned the corner if we cant do that, well theres 21 games to make redemption

 

[Infamy]

Finals - 2012/2013
Top 4 - 2014

 

[Rayzorwire]

I really think there's no reason why we shouldn't be aiming for top-4 next year. A lot will change between now and rd.1 2012, any club who was as competitive while actively hindering itself as we were this year, is more than capable of doing what West Coast have. A club is as 'ready' as the relative health and form of their list when compared to the opposition. There will be retirements, trades, injuries, departures of key off-field personnel and all manner of upheaval at each of the clubs who still remain in the finals race, and just like the Saints this year, none of them are certain to be there next year - at least one of them almost certainly won't be.

If Cotchin and Martin do each turn out to be the best player of their draft, our chances of doing that two out of three years (with Vickery in between) were extremely slight. A side which couldn't capitalise on that amazing good fortune to the extent of even making the finals until the 5th/7th years of them being on the list? That would be a case of that side not being coached or managed well enough IMO, not even close.

As for a premiership, I'm on record as saying that I believe it will be virtually impossible for us to win one in the forseeable future; the GC just have far too much talent and we won't be strong enough in the brief window before they begin to utterly dominate. They will be unbeatable and people won't be happy.

I'd really like to have seen us go harder at getting a few of the right kind of mature players in our first season rather than as many speculative juniors as we took. Grigg and Houli were sound additions this year and they increased our ability to run games out at the required level by more than most appreciate.

To me, the glaring weakness of our list is in body size and defensive power through the midfield and the flanks.

Anyone preparing to beat GC in 3-4 years down the track needs to accept right now that they're simply not going to beat them for footballing talent. So what can you aim for?

You must reinvent football, as other clubs have been forced to in the past because they lacked the raw talent. You must take the 'non-footballing' (i.e. not individuals directly using the ball) aspects of the game - the running, the 1%ers, the tackles, the positioning, the strategy - and build a gameplan which can beat a better 'football' team by using everything else.

Personally, if I was building a list to try and knock off GC, I'd aim to do it almost solely on contested ball winning, run and tackling - if you can't beat them, beat them up. They can't use the ball well if they don't have it, or have no time and space to use it in, or are always forced to kick to a contest.

So to do that, you need to be looking for players who can a) cover enormous territory in a game, b) get to a huge number of contests, and c) win more than their fair share of those contests. Any other footballing or personal qualities they may have are incidental compared to the importance of the above three. It's no coincidence that an overwhelming number of the players who really thrived in the new landscape of 2011 had these three qualities at the head of their attributes, and many of them had significant deficiencies in other aspects of their game which became of much less importance than what they did do well.

You need to fill every list spot you can with players that can do those things, the Mitch Robinson style foot soldiers who run hard both ways, win contests and just make a side so much harder to beat. Football's been heading in that direction for years and the rule change for 2011 just temporarily sped up a trend which has been slowly rolling since the advent of the professional footballer.

Fair to say we've been a little slow on the uptake in the Hardwick era when it comes to the kind of players we've targeted (though we got a fair bit better last draft as opposed to the prior one) and the style of game plan we're trying to bring along. I strongly doubt we've even begun to come to grips with the kind of power GC will be and more importantly, the styles of football and footballers which will be truly capable of testing them.

If we keep adding four players a year of similar styles who can make the kind of impact Conca, Batchelor, Grigg and Houli did this year (others showed some promise) and get a bunch of them competing hard for spots, we'll keep ourselves in with a shot at the lesser glories of finals for a decade or more.

If we want to win a flag during the GC behemoth's window, we need innovation at all levels and football intelligence so far beyond what we currently have available and are employing, that I doubt we're even 5% of the way ATM.

Like I said, we need people capable of visualising the future and reinventing football.

Apologies if I drifted too far off topic Claude.