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Whatever happens now our finals fate will come down to the season's last day of H&A games.
We play first.
A narrow win over the Hawks ...
If Hawthorn kick their average score for the season (83) and we win by just one point (84-83).
Let's say Collingwood then kicks its average score for the year too (86). In that situation they would have to win by 14 points (86-72) for us to overtake Carlton.
However if Collingwood kick 100 points then we only need them to win by 12 (100-88).
But if they only kick 72 points then we need them to win by 15. (72-57)
And so on.
Leaving the fingernails intact ...
All this becomes academic if we can smash out a decent margin against the Hawks. A three goal win would almost certainly be enough. Then all we'd need is any sort of Collingwood win over Carlton.
The nightmare scenario ...
We scrape out a very narrow win over Hawthorn. Say 1 point.
Collingwood need a win but but don't care about the margin because their percentage is too far below the others to make any difference.
Carlton would like a win but will still make the finals if they lose by less than 11 points.
Without them coming to any spoken agreement the last 10 minutes end up with both sides chipping the ball around their half-back line and neither side trying to score. Collingwood win 87-79.
The EPL start all games in the final round of the season at the same time, precisely to rule out this sort of scenario.
We play first.
A narrow win over the Hawks ...
If Hawthorn kick their average score for the season (83) and we win by just one point (84-83).
Let's say Collingwood then kicks its average score for the year too (86). In that situation they would have to win by 14 points (86-72) for us to overtake Carlton.
However if Collingwood kick 100 points then we only need them to win by 12 (100-88).
But if they only kick 72 points then we need them to win by 15. (72-57)
And so on.
Leaving the fingernails intact ...
All this becomes academic if we can smash out a decent margin against the Hawks. A three goal win would almost certainly be enough. Then all we'd need is any sort of Collingwood win over Carlton.
The nightmare scenario ...
We scrape out a very narrow win over Hawthorn. Say 1 point.
Collingwood need a win but but don't care about the margin because their percentage is too far below the others to make any difference.
Carlton would like a win but will still make the finals if they lose by less than 11 points.
Without them coming to any spoken agreement the last 10 minutes end up with both sides chipping the ball around their half-back line and neither side trying to score. Collingwood win 87-79.
The EPL start all games in the final round of the season at the same time, precisely to rule out this sort of scenario.