Will we win?

[Selective Retention]

It is our 7th Grand Final in 21 years clearly the most in that time. We just have to win.

Lucky number 7 (hopefully) in my lifetime. Not that I can even remember 95 much let alone 89! A 1-6 record would be crushing.

 

[Trevanian]

Well on the Crows board we have a thread on who you would like to see win the GF and there is 1 solitary person who is backing in the Saints and that is sticking to their pre-season tip!

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=634612

Logic? We are not a bitter lot just a touch hateful we have a Anti-Saints streak running a mile-wide for some reason, ohh and we all hate Milnes guts.

 

[vinum coupe]

thats a bit of a downer of a read....

He is always a downer so I just skip the posts

I glanced through the game thread from saturday and he was crapping himself

 

[MontyMensch]

Some of you guys clearly have forgotten how we lost to the Saints earlier this year, when they were playing their best footy and our side (on the field) played at 65%.

Their ok ruckman took a mark in the square in the last minute, this time are well above average ruckman is playing. In a Grand Final at the "G"!!!!

At a ground and in a game we actually have experience at, and this time a man awarded "Best On Ground" in such a game is strapping his boots on as well. Against a group of unknowns.

Finally if anyone can remember the 1995 game, Carlton played Rice in front of Gazza Snr and SOS behind him. Geelong has done this to the Saints player that has to win game for them before in the last two years and has had so far more than reasonable success.

Esp at the "G"..

This isn't a meaningless 4 point game at the SAINTERDOME - ITS THE GRAND FINAL AT THE G!!

 

[donbooger]

There is a lot we can take from round 14 but I dont think we played as bad as some say.

St Kilda got the jump on us in the first quarter but for the next 3 we were at our best. Keep in mind we played catch up all day and the saints are probably the best team there has ever been as protecting a lead, if we are neck and neck with them they will not have that luxury.

Big ins Ottens and Johnson but a lot of things went right on round 14, we were extremely accurate with many long bomb sailing through, and Taylor was outstanding on Reiwoldt, will he be again.

If we play as well as we did round 14 we should win with the added players and without the shocking start, but we dont play that well every week so we have to wait and see.

 

[brown tabby]

Lot's of fear, typical Geelong supporters! We are always doubting, this is a different team to all the ones that could not deliver in the 90's.

Enjoy the experience & be confident.
We are either going to win the game or lose it...life goes on.

But I'm pretty confident...the only thing I'm worried about is the big blonde endangered & protected species roaming their forward line. he knows how to milk those little short people. Poor St.Nick!

We all know that the Doggies should be in the GF. The Saints are lucky to be there...so stop fretting and enjoy it. Remember, we comfortably disposed of the Doggies two weeks ago.

So her's a happy face for all you Cats fans who are overly nervous

 

[Sttew]

thats a bit of a downer of a read....

bolded - i think that chappy and bartel will be key for us. if it's the type of game where we're bombing it long we should throw both those guys in the forward line. they're both great marks overhead

to the OP - i reckon we will get up. i can't fathom the thought we wouldn't.

Agree totally

 

[Topper]

One things for sure, we won't be giving them a 5 goal head start. Plus the weather will suit us and definately hinder Riewoldt.

Saints desperately want the flag but we've got something burning inside us that will just fire the Cats up enough to get over the line.

Cats by 16

 

[candiehappy]

I can't see why it wouldn't be a close game. But I feel that our experience and hardness will hold sway. Bit like the 04 prelim where Brisbane beat us by 9 points. They just knew more about how to win in a final.

 

[vinum coupe]

Some of you guys clearly have forgotten how we lost to the Saints earlier this year, when they were playing their best footy and our side (on the field) played at 65%.

Mate it is you who forgets.
Our midfield starred (after they crapped themselves in the first 20 minutes)

Corey, Selwood and even Ablett panicked early.

But after that they ran amok.

The improvement will have to come from a good start and Ottens and SJ having an influence.

But please don't try and tell me that we played at 65%

 

[fpm84]

Mate it is you who forgets.
Our midfield starred (after they crapped themselves in the first 20 minutes)

Corey, Selwood and even Ablett panicked early.

But after that they ran amok.

The improvement will have to come from a good start and Ottens and SJ having an influence.

But please don't try and tell me that we played at 65%

I thought we were good in patches and also poor in patches in round 14. We will need to play three or hopefully four very good quarters on Saturday to win.

Reasons why we can reverse the result of round 14:

a) Mumford started in the ruck and Blake didn't come onto the field until we were 4 or 5 goals down... as soon as he came on we started winning the clearances. This isn't a Mumford v Blake debate, merely a fact.
b) Ablett was only played in the midfield in bursts in the first half from what I recall... obviously in a GF we will play our best midfielder where he should be played
c) Hawkins was terrible that day and has improved tenfold since. We don't even necessarily need him to kick goals on Saturday to win - just to contest, tackle, chase and do the 1%ers like he did v Pies to create opportunities for others
d) Sam Gilbert cut us up and nullified Stokes. This time around I imagine he would sacrifice a lot of his run because he is minding SJ
e) Gardiner was the match winner and kicked four goals. There is categorically no way he will do this if Ottens is on the field... unless Otto kicks five at the other end


Of course all this doesn't mean we will win. It just means that we tried some different things last time and not all of them worked. This time around we have players that have improved since (Hawkins, Varcoe, Blake), key players back in the side (Ottens, SJ) and our superstars still at their peak (GAJ, Scarlett, Chapman etc).

Another point: I think Jimmy's been one of our best in both finals. Admittedly I thought he just had a 'good' season by his lofty standards (partly due to him having to play so many different roles). It seems he's been priming himself for September

 

[Asitshouldbeplay]

I thought we were good in patches and also poor in patches in round 14. We will need to play three or hopefully four very good quarters on Saturday to win.

Reasons why we can reverse the result of round 14:

a) Mumford started in the ruck and Blake didn't come onto the field until we were 4 or 5 goals down... as soon as he came on we started winning the clearances. This isn't a Mumford v Blake debate, merely a fact.
b) Ablett was only played in the midfield in bursts in the first half from what I recall... obviously in a GF we will play our best midfielder where he should be played
c) Hawkins was terrible that day and has improved tenfold since. We don't even necessarily need him to kick goals on Saturday to win - just to contest, tackle, chase and do the 1%ers like he did v Pies to create opportunities for others
d) Sam Gilbert cut us up and nullified Stokes. This time around I imagine he would sacrifice a lot of his run because he is minding SJ
e) Gardiner was the match winner and kicked four goals. There is categorically no way he will do this if Ottens is on the field... unless Otto kicks five at the other end


Of course all this doesn't mean we will win. It just means that we tried some different things last time and not all of them worked. This time around we have players that have improved since (Hawkins, Varcoe, Blake), key players back in the side (Ottens, SJ) and our superstars still at their peak (GAJ, Scarlett, Chapman etc).

Another point: I think Jimmy's been one of our best in both finals. Admittedly I thought he just had a 'good' season by his lofty standards (partly due to him having to play so many different roles). It seems he's been priming himself for September

We have to start Blake on the bench come Sat and start with Ottens. He was as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs on sat night. Bring him on 10 mins into the 1st as he just cant handle the big stage.

 

[chicachow]

[youtube]rLClpblpgxk[/youtube]

I Beileve!

 

[Poetic Justice]

For those who say we absolutely CANT win by 5 goals well... I know it probably wont be a 5 goal win to us but consider this:

If we did not allow the Saints 5 goals up on us in the R14 match, I dare say the result would have differed as we got ourselves back within a point, did we not?

IF we can do our thing and jump the Saints in the first quarter, we need to continue doing what we do for the following 3 quarters and it COULD very well end up netting us a 5 goal win.

I'm not saying this is what I think will happen, but I'm just pointing out that its not at all impossible.

 

[PoidaCat]

For those who say we absolutely CANT win by 5 goals well... I know it probably wont be a 5 goal win to us but consider this:

If we did not allow the Saints 5 goals up on us in the R14 match, I dare say the result would have differed as we got ourselves back within a point, did we not?

IF we can do our thing and jump the Saints in the first quarter, we need to continue doing what we do for the following 3 quarters and it COULD very well end up netting us a 5 goal win.

I'm not saying this is what I think will happen, but I'm just pointing out that its not at all impossible.

We were even with them until about 1 minute to go.

 

[James1970]

If the weather forcasters are correct, it's going to be a tough, hard slog - one of the wettest GF's in years. I'm expecting a very close, goal for goal game right up until the start of the last quarter, when our midfield strength just ramp it up. Ottens will take the pack marks, Byrnes will crumb a few, Chappy will huff and puff. As the Saints hearts sink, we'll break away for a 5-6 goal win, Hawk's thump from 55 on the boundary, the sealer. Ablett for Norm Smith, picking up a third medal for the week.

 

[PoidaCat]

If the weather forcasters are correct, it's going to be a tough, hard slog - one of the wettest GF's in years. I'm expecting a very close, goal for goal game right up until the start of the last quarter, when our midfield strength just ramp it up. Ottens will take the pack marks, Byrnes will crumb a few, Chappy will huff and puff. As the Saints hearts sink, we'll break away for a 5-6 goal win, Hawk's thump from 55 on the boundary, the sealer. Ablett for Norm Smith, picking up a third medal for the week.

I'm Lovin' it!

 

[watermelonslice]

My mind seems to lose coherence as soon as I think of the Grand Final. So many things flashing before my eyes - one of which happens to be the boys on the ground after the final siren last year.

But if anyone can beat St Kilda when they're playing at their best, it's us at our best. Go Cats!

 

[fpm84]

Another point: Wojcinski missed the round 14 match.

He has been very good in both our finals this year and has an amazing record v Saints (probably better than any other team).

 

[MontyMensch]

Mate it is you who forgets.
Our midfield starred (after they crapped themselves in the first 20 minutes)

Corey, Selwood and even Ablett panicked early.

But after that they ran amok.

The improvement will have to come from a good start and Ottens and SJ having an influence.

But please don't try and tell me that we played at 65%

I might of phrased that wrong, your right about the midfield. But what i was meaning the game we played as a whole was at 65% of how we can play a complete 4 quarters.

Regardless of the bad start we should of won anyway, Ablett wasted a shot at goal right at the end by rushing his shot. Whilst as i mentioned before the umpires cost another certain late goal.

There is no way the boys on the park that day played their best, you could see the frustration on their faces at the end (esp our best players). We should of beaten them then regardless of the bad start and Johnson and Ottens missing.

A start would be perfect and i could see us getting one, and you would never obviously knock one back. However a even game up to half time in a big game - has often lead to this Cats sides best performances. Last Saturday's magical third term in a crunch game was certainly not a once off for us.

If we quick three quick successive goals at the G against an inexperienced Grand Final side, I feel this could be as equally damaging.

But i'd arrive at the game naked for a Magic Johnson inspired 5 goal start!!!

 

[True Blue Cat]

I am so confident i am amazed by myself. Really can't wait for Friday to really get into the atmosphere of the Grand Final.

 

[witsend]

We have seen the best St Kilda has to offer. It's very good but predictable and they are not at their peak now. There is NO Plan B. This is the same old Saints but with a better defensive mindset that Leigh Tudor has given them.
Geelong have another gear still.
Expect to see it on Saturday.

 

[Sedat!]

You guys are basically a slightly better, more advanced version of the Dogs (we have pretty much modelled our game plan on yours in the last couple of years), and you have more weapons at your disposal on most lines than we do. If you can control the influence of Goddard (I'm sure Geelong's MC will be having a close look at the video tape from Friday night), and deny clean ball to St Kilda's mids (especially Hayes), you will deny clean delivery to Riewoldt in dangerous places - once you do that you are just about home and hosed. Because of the way you guys play, you will be generating more than enough of your own clean delivery into your forward 50 if you break even or win the clearance battle, which will place St Kilda's defenders out of their comfort zone. And if you do that, you would have to implode in front of goal not to kick 12-13 goals minimum, and that will be plenty good enough next week if you starve St Kilda's forward line like we were able to do for most of Friday night.

Good luck guys. Really hope you can get the chocolates next week (even if some of your supporters will be nigh on unbearable on BF - still, after 18+ wins a season for 3 years and 2 flags, and I'd probably be just as bad). I love this game, and it will turn to shit if St Kilda's game plan is adopted by all and sundry next season.

 

[witsend]

You guys are basically a slightly better, more advanced version of the Dogs (we have pretty much modelled our game plan on yours in the last couple of years), and you have more weapons at your disposal on most lines than we do. If you can control the influence of Goddard (I'm sure Geelong's MC will be having a close look at the video tape from Friday night), and deny clean ball to St Kilda's mids (especially Hayes), you will deny clean delivery to Riewoldt in dangerous places - once you do that you are just about home and hosed. Because of the way you guys play, you will be generating more than enough of your own clean delivery into your forward 50 if you break even or win the clearance battle, which will place St Kilda's defenders out of their comfort zone. And if you do that, you would have to implode in front of goal not to kick 12-13 goals minimum, and that will be plenty good enough next week if you starve St Kilda's forward line like we were able to do for most of Friday night.

Good luck guys. Really hope you can get the chocolates next week (even if some of your supporters will be nigh on unbearable on BF - still, after 18+ wins a season for 3 years and 2 flags, and I'd probably be just as bad). I love this game, and it will turn to shit if St Kilda's game plan is adopted by all and sundry next season.

Very important point!
A victory to St Kilda, following on from Hawthorn last year would be terminal to the free flowing game.
Zoning to some degree is a permanent part of the Football Lexicon now, but it must be coupled with the desire to "win", not just the desire to "not lose".
Last year Geelong got enough i50s and possession and clearances to win, but didn't take their chances when they had them, unlike Hawthorn, who kicked goals in their periods of MF dominance.
Geelong WILL dominate clearances and i50s on Saturday and have enough talent and confidence in the F50 to kick a winning score.
Riewoldt and Koschitzke will bob up for a few as always, but Milne and Schneider will be crucified and starved of opportunity.
Scarlett will run off Kossie at EVERY opportunity and will, IMO be the matchwinner.
If Kossie just lurks in the goal square and allows Scarlo to play off him, they are screwed! Last year Scarlo had to commit 100% to Franklin, and we missed his creativity.

 

[Sedat!]

Riewoldt and Koschitzke will bob up for a few as always, but Milne and Schneider will be crucified and starved of opportunity.
Scarlett will run off Kossie at EVERY opportunity and will, IMO be the matchwinner.

Kosi won't bob up for anything. He has been dreadful in both finals so far. Lake rendered him completely useless on Friday night and Scarlett is every bit as damaging and brilliant a key defender as Lake. Roo needs to absolutely torch Taylor and kick a big bag for the Saints to have any chance - he won't be doing that unless Gardiner and King have the game of their lives and constantly feed it to Dal and Hayes, and the Saints midfield smashes it in the clearances. I just cannot imagine your talented and deep midfield being smashed in any game.

PS - just saw the long range weather forecast for Saturday. Windy and wet. Worst possible conditions for the Saints.