Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[Number37]

Interesting thread about mutations and how it might affect vaccine development.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

The cost around this will be incredible.

I suggest getting a second opinion, once you have done the sums.

 

[Number37]

So now they’ve taken extreme measures, the models have been re-run and shown they’ll likely have the desired outcome.

Who knew.



Surely WHO needs a serious investigation given the amount of time they’ve spent toeing the Chinese party line and not providing genuine unbiased information.

Taiwan is and has been the gold standard in managing this outbreak and yet never mentioned by the WHO.



Small sample but pretty horrifying numbers even for the young, 25% death rate from the ICU is massive.

Doesn't seem to matter what your age, if it hits you hard, you're cactus.

 

[Number37]

Cheers.

It doesn't really tell us much.

It does tell us one thing.
It's not just the f'ing flu.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Interesting thread about mutations and how it might affect vaccine development.

This is basically what has occurred with the current scenario, and again, he is talking about years in which molecular geneticists can run the genetic modelling and hand it over to the immunologists. This thing only has 15 functional genes.

As for whether this S protein mutates AND the virus retains ACE-2 affinity, well that remains to be seen.



THIS!

It does tell us one thing.
It's not just the f'ing flu.

Do you honestly waste your time musing on this? Ignore it mate.

 

[Bazzar]

The cost around this will be incredible.

There's been mental health experts on the radio here in Melbourne during the week saying it's a strong possibility fatalities due to isolation and economic impact will be greater than the disease itself.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

More People Died From Suicide Than Coronavirus In Tennessee This Week

Constant doomsday predictions, economic stress and imposed isolation measures are creating the perfect trifecta for an awakening of a mental health crisis.

thefederalist.com

Twitter Blocks The Federalist for Promoting Coronavirus Parties (Published 2020)

The action comes as misinformation about the virus has spread rapidly on social media.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Pessimistic]

he’s gonna be a pin up for a few round here.
‘Trump? Lefty loving weak as pisss!’

 

[kaiserchief13]

Like Zion Williamson

Yeah, like anyone who lifts weights pretty much

 

[Pessimistic]

10 MORE Experts Criticising the Coronavirus Panic

Following on from our previous list, here are ten more expert voices, drowned out or disregarded by the mainstream narrative, offering their take on the coronavirus outbreak. * * * Dr. Sunetra Gupt…

off-guardian.org

More scientific experts say it's an over-reaction
Interesting point - One even suggests younger people should be mixing socially to strengthen herd immunity.

I don’t see why herd immunity isn’t a plausible strategy. But I’d not be volunteering until a lot more is known. Cv19 parties? Well people do gamble with potentially dangerous illegal drugs so it’s not hard to see. Perhaps they can all go to daydream or something, sign up to say they can’t leave no matter what, and see how well it goes

starting to look between a choice of who to save, old and ill or stupid and reckless

herd immunity happens anyway, it’s just how do you get there

 

[Clems Knee]

10 MORE Experts Criticising the Coronavirus Panic

Following on from our previous list, here are ten more expert voices, drowned out or disregarded by the mainstream narrative, offering their take on the coronavirus outbreak. * * * Dr. Sunetra Gupt…

off-guardian.org

More scientific experts say it's an over-reaction
Interesting point - One even suggests younger people should be mixing socially to strengthen herd immunity.

I would like to see the sources of the experts rather than just that site. An overreaction or the wrong strategy?

But the suggestion of getting the young to mix is not a new one.

If all young people exhibited only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic, then no young person would die or go to ICU if people were encouraged to mix. Some experts are assuming that “if” is true.
Not only that, enough young people would quickly get immunity from the disease so that the disease would not spread in the community and would peter out.

It makes sense, and would lead to lasting protection of society from the disease: you wouldn’t have to control your borders because your country is okay. The problems that China and Korea have now are protecting themselves from reinfection as people return from other countries.

The problems with this are what to do with the vulnerable: the old, the asthmatics, those with compromised immune systems?
If your moral code allows it, that’s not a problem. They are isolated until this all goes away (this will take less time anyway than when trying to suppress the outbreak), or they are likely to die. But who looks after them if the contagion is everywhere?

Is the assumption that young people are safe from CoVid-19 accurate, or is having a lower level of risk acceptable?

If schools were kept open specifically to spread the virus among younger members of the community (remember Morrison telling everyone to send their kids to school to keep the economy going), what of the older members of the community - the school teachers and the grandparents who were more exposed as a result?

And what of the medical practitioners who have to treat the infected population?

The maths and ethics of minimising COVID-19 deaths

A University of Melbourne experts says the government must factor in the maths and ethics of either flattening the curve or an eradication endgame for COVID-19.

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

This article by epidemiologists paints the choice of flattening the curve versus protecting everyone. Achieving herd immunity would mean that at least 60% of the population have caught the disease (and recovered, hopefully). That would be disastrous if it is across all ages, but much better if it is 90% of people under 40 and 10% of people over 40, for example.

The article was published a week ago, so is not too out of date with its figures and assumptions. Since then, schools have largely closed or been emptied. Their work as spreading stations is done, or now that community contagion is common, schools get too many people together? There has been no testing of communities except those entering the country and falling sick as a result of that, so its hard to answer the question.

 

[Les Malone]

More Thoughts on Computing the COVID-19 Fatality Rate | National Review

It’s based on decisions about whom to include or exclude, which are often conjecture.

www.nationalreview.com

very good article.

 

[pastmyprimus]

TheGreatBarryB
View attachment 848689

The scary thing is that the UK is still in the early stages in relative terms. The overall fatality rate will go up as the hospital system becomes more overwhelmed. Patients who need ICU care won't be able to get

 

[tangolikelama]

US deaths exploding now. Up to 515.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

More Thoughts on Computing the COVID-19 Fatality Rate | National Review

It’s based on decisions about whom to include or exclude, which are often conjecture.

www.nationalreview.com

National Review Online

National Review Online (NRO) is the web arm of the once venerable conservative political commentary magazine founded by William F. Buckley.[note 1] Despite his leadership, National Review has on occasion taken interesting stands, even running a main article making the conservative case for...

rationalwiki.org

 

[yebiga]

I would like to see the sources of the experts rather than just that site. An overreaction or the wrong strategy?

But the suggestion of getting the young to mix is not a new one.

If all young people exhibited only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic, then no young person would die or go to ICU if people were encouraged to mix. Some experts are assuming that “if” is true.
Not only that, enough young people would quickly get immunity from the disease so that the disease would not spread in the community and would peter out.

It makes sense, and would lead to lasting protection of society from the disease: you wouldn’t have to control your borders because your country is okay. The problems that China and Korea have now are protecting themselves from reinfection as people return from other countries.

The problems with this are what to do with the vulnerable: the old, the asthmatics, those with compromised immune systems?
If your moral code allows it, that’s not a problem. They are isolated until this all goes away (this will take less time anyway than when trying to suppress the outbreak), or they are likely to die. But who looks after them if the contagion is everywhere?

Is the assumption that young people are safe from CoVid-19 accurate, or is having a lower level of risk acceptable?

If schools were kept open specifically to spread the virus among younger members of the community (remember Morrison telling everyone to send their kids to school to keep the economy going), what of the older members of the community - the school teachers and the grandparents who were more exposed as a result?

And what of the medical practitioners who have to treat the infected population?

The maths and ethics of minimising COVID-19 deaths

A University of Melbourne experts says the government must factor in the maths and ethics of either flattening the curve or an eradication endgame for COVID-19.

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

This article by epidemiologists paints the choice of flattening the curve versus protecting everyone. Achieving herd immunity would mean that at least 60% of the population have caught the disease (and recovered, hopefully). That would be disastrous if it is across all ages, but much better if it is 90% of people under 40 and 10% of people over 40, for example.

The article was published a week ago, so is not too out of date with its figures and assumptions. Since then, schools have largely closed or been emptied. Their work as spreading stations is done, or now that community contagion is common, schools get too many people together? There has been no testing of communities except those entering the country and falling sick as a result of that, so its hard to answer the question.

I was born somewhere around the edge or after the Boomers. I am very conscious that our culture has always bent over backwards to accommodate this generation. By sheer quantity perhaps the culture has always during their lifetimes reflected their interests above all other age groups.

I have this nagging thought that, when this is over, we will wonder whether had this been a similar pandemic but predominantly deadly to kids, would we have shutdown so drastically. It's obviously a question without any satisfactory answer but none the less there is something to it I cannot automatically dismiss.

 

[parsons nose]

There's been mental health experts on the radio here in Melbourne during the week saying it's a strong possibility fatalities due to isolation and economic impact will be greater than the disease itself.

If we can keep the covid19 fatality rate lower than the suicide rate, that would be an excellent result!

 

[Bazzar]

The cost around this will be incredible.

Morrison about to announce a 1.2 billion dollar mental health package to combat this.,

 

[Marcel Proust]

I don’t see why herd immunity isn’t a plausible strategy. But I’d not be volunteering until a lot more is known. Cv19 parties? Well people do gamble with potentially dangerous illegal drugs so it’s not hard to see. Perhaps they can all go to daydream or something, sign up to say they can’t leave no matter what, and see how well it goes

starting to look between a choice of who to save, old and ill or stupid and reckless

herd immunity happens anyway, it’s just how do you get there

I thought herd immunity theory was big say 20 years ago but hardly heard of it recently until Boris about a month ago.

Was it pushed aside to try and tackle the anti vax movement?

 

[RudyBlue]

I'd say the fact they have been excluded by the WHO has probably increased their effectiveness in managing the outbreak. It seems countries that didn't take the WHO's guidance have done better than most others.

This will surely become a 9/11 for biosecurity

 

[Marcel Proust]

This will surely become a 9/11 for biosecurity

It's very Orwellian

War on terror

War on viruses

.citizens rats in a cage

 

[Les Malone]

I was born somewhere around the edge or after the Boomers. I am very conscious that our culture has always bent over backwards to accommodate this generation. By sheer quantity perhaps the culture has always during their lifetimes reflected their interests above all other age groups.

I have this nagging thought that, when this is over, we will wonder whether had this been a similar pandemic but predominantly deadly to kids, would we have shutdown so drastically. It's obviously a question without any satisfactory answer but none the less there is something to it I cannot automatically dismiss.

Its really bumping off the generation a touch older than the first wave of boomers (pre 1946) to me that generation has endured hardships we have no idea about (WW2 and the depression before).

Post WW2 to about 1960 anyone born had the easiest ride ever until the current generations, the best health, easy to find a job, built up assets, moved to a house in the suburbs to mirror the American dream etc etc.

They are also the same generation that sold out our country to O/S interest and made it harder for their kids to find jobs, i would suggest the early boomers were the first real selfish generations in this country.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Interesting thread about mutations and how it might affect vaccine development.

There's an interesting molecular genetics modelling paper in that thread, which basically blows away the conspiracy theories.

The genetic evolution of S protein spikes (genotype D).

As you can see the predominant jumps occurred around 2007-2009.





This phylogenic tree highlights 2007 (L195S and Y521H) and 2009 (T93K, D120H and K184N) "bottle necks" in the viral evolution of genotype D spike proteins:

 

[Baltimore Jack]

What were the figures Scotty from Marketing was throwing up in his presser

Something about infection rates dropping from 25% to 13%

Edit: Now Hunt is using the same figure....wtf am I missing here?

 

[Clems Knee]

I was born somewhere around the edge or after the Boomers. I am very conscious that our culture has always bent over backwards to accommodate this generation. By sheer quantity perhaps the culture has always during their lifetimes reflected their interests above all other age groups.

I have this nagging thought that, when this is over, we will wonder whether had this been a similar pandemic but predominantly deadly to kids, would we have shutdown so drastically. It's obviously a question without any satisfactory answer but none the less there is something to it I cannot automatically dismiss.

We would have done better if there were fewer mixed messages. One of two options:

We are an island, so could have been more rigorous in stopping the virus getting in and spreading with contact tracing and enforced isolation of returning travellers.

OR,

We could have aimed for herd immunity by isolating the old and sick people and telling them why, and asking all others to respect that isolation, but carry on as normal otherwise. Any older or unwell teachers should have been isolated from the contagion factories that are schools. Kids living with old people should have been isolated. Neither should have been given a choice in this. Old people should not have been allowed in supermarkets panic buying along with a heap of infected people. They should have been offered priority delivery from the outset.
The rationale for this should have been explained to the population, not as an economic justification but a health one.