Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
its free real estate said:
Do 29 year old doctors tend to die from the flu?

Click to expand...

You have to keep in mind that this is more of a pneumonia than a flu. Healthy young people can die of the flu too (although rare) and can certainly die of pneumonia.
 
The dam is breaking.

Victorian coronavirus outbreak ‘very likely’ (paywalled)
A coronavirus pandemic is very likely, if not inevitable, according to Victoria’s chief medical officer.

Dr Brett Sutton said his team was hoping for the best but planning for the worst.

“It’s clear that with local transmission in several countries that a pandemic is very likely, if not inevitable,” Dr Sutton said.

“We are working rapidly on planning and surge with our health sector.”
...
“This is critical — pandemics challenge all sectors with effects on supply, workforce and business continuity,” Dr Sutton wrote on Twitter.
...
Dr Sutton warned healthy adults had died from the virus.

“The elderly and those with existing medical conditions are definitely more at risk,” he wrote.

“But some healthy adults have also become severely unwell or died.
Click to expand...
 

Log in to remove this ad.

What could possibly go wrong?

Millions of Chinese ordered back to work but infection risk remains high

Authorities are caught between an urgent need to restart the economy and the allowing the coronavirus to spread

www.theguardian.com

China encourages citizens to return to work as coronavirus hits economy

Authorities are caught between urgent need to restart economy and efforts to contain virus
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Here's bits I extracted from a pm I sent to my ex and kids on 12 Feb. We'll see if I'm Nostradamus or Nostradoofus in a couple of weeks.

me said:
It is here in Australia and the next two or three weeks will see the first domestic-infection cases. Melbourne is right in the firing line with a lot of eastern suburbs almost completely Chinese and hot spots like Point Cook. The good news is the spread of the disease will be a lot slower here due to less population density and better personal hygiene. Also they are in mid winter and we're not. The official figures out of China are bullshit.

1. The infection rate is far, far higher than presented, for a critical reason. Comparisons with the flu are meaningless. To catch the flu, you have to be infected by someone who is already coughing and sneezing and showing symptoms. Being relatively easy to avoid, each flu case typically infects 1.4 people (R0 of 1.4). So the growth of cases is quite slow. Coronavirus has an average R0 of 3 (figures vary between 2.2 and 5.5). Each infected person on average infects three other people, and the cycle continues. After ten cycles of infection, coronavirus will have 1000 times the number of sick people than the flu. The scary part is, infected people have a six-day window where they can infect others, appearing to be in perfect health, before they come down with any symptoms themselves. Unless tested, they don't know they have it, which makes it very easy to accidentally pass on. The virus lives on surfaces for up to 9 days (not confirmed), all it takes is for someone with it to use a door handle to infect others.

2. The death rate ... Numbers here may be different due to the level of care. The rate in China may be even higher as people are being turned away from hospitals and dying outside the system....

3. The incubation period is not a flat 14 days. It varies from a low of 3 days to 24 days. Someone could self-isolate for 14 days and still come down with it ten days later. This will show up soon with cruise ship passengers etc.

4. When Wuhan was shut down and isolated on Jan 23, there were only 571 confirmed cases, 95 in serious condition, with 17 deaths. You do not quarantine a city with 11 million people because 17 people have died. You do it because s**t is getting real. There are now over 60 cities and entire provinces quarantined. Today Beijing and Shanghai were put on the list. *****'s wife, her mother and son are quarantined in their apartment in Jilin, 2200km from Wuhan. They are not allowed out of their door. Every morning people come in to take their temperature and deliver 3 meals each + grandma's meds.

5. What can we do? Be prepared. We MAY be very very lucky and not have to worry about it, at least for a couple of months until colder weather hits.
Do you need masks? Not yet. But masks are almost impossible to buy right now due to Chinese buying them all, for themselves and to send to China at a tidy profit. I haven't got any but may wind up buying a reusable industrial one. The ones to look out for are N95 or P2 rated, with a vent on the front. P1 provides no protection, ones without a vent become choked with moisture and aren't any good after half an hour, P3 is industrial full-face and aren't appropriate here. It may be possible to find overlooked masks in garden shops or departments. To be honest a mask is probably most effective at stopping you from putting your hands near your mouth and nose and infecting yourself.
HAND WASHING is essential and is the most effective way to stop getting it. When you walk in the front door, the first thing you must do is scrub your hands with plenty of soap and hot water, use a nailbrush. Keep hand sanitiser at home and in the car, after every interaction with people or public places you have to rub sanitiser on your hands. Sanitiser is also out of stock almost everywhere thanks to the daigou raids. My local IGA has some, I've bought some bottles but may get more. If you can't find any I'll get some for you.
If the s**t hits the fan here you will need safety glasses as well as a mask, because the virus can infect you through your eyes. By safety glasses I mean the large plastic specs, not goggles. They fit over normal glasses for **** and *****. To cut down the use of sanitiser, you will need gloves when going out. Either nitrile or food-handling PVC. They are cheap in boxes of 100, keep some at home and most in the car. Try to minimise the use of cash, use cards whenever possible.
Hopefully it won't come to it, but if we get quarantined and have to stay home, we'll need a stock of food for at least a couple of weeks. I've bought stuff that keeps without refrigeration, some of which doesn't need cooking, and things like extra teabags and fruit juice. Its stored in ................. It's all stuff that I use anyway, so in the happy event that its not needed I'll just grab from the boxes instead of buying more. You should look at doing the same because if you wait too long you could be fighting others for it. Note I am not advocating a Doomsday Preppers thing where you convert the garage to a food store for a year, that's ridiculous. Only have extra supplies on hand Just In Case.
Click to expand...
 
Over The Post said:
Here's bits I extracted from a pm I sent to my ex and kids on 12 Feb. We'll see if I'm Nostradamus or Nostradoofus in a couple of weeks.
Click to expand...

Pretty good.

I would add three things.

I would keep my car full of petrol, in case things get bad in Singapore (where we get most of our petrol).

Secondly, I would consider whether I need to see a doctor for any routine stuff like prescriptions over the next 3 months. If you do, go now - you don't want to need to go in say 4 - 8 weeks to get something you need which you could have foreseen now.

Thirdly, and related to #2. If you are on prescription medicines, get 2 or 3 months worth now. Supply chains for everything could get really wobbly.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

They would keep playing the games and simply ban crowds, something to that effect.

What is interesting is the next phase of the pandemic (mitigation) means they will cease attempting to contain the spread across borders and attempt to slow the spread in cities. Which might entail working from home, schools being cancelled, no large gatherings. Somewhat defeating the move to let all the Chinese students back in the country (though I think that's less about them being at school and more about them being here to occupy investment properties and pay rent, etc).
 
I remember a while ago seeing a thread with a link to a website from some US government agency with world population estimates year by year.

I remember there was a sharp decline in population (from memory Australia went from 24mil to 8mil in a year).

Can't find the thread or the website now, will be interesting to see what year the fall was predicted
 
Another death from the Diamond Princess, and eight now dead in Iran.

Meanwhile in Italy...
"Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China" said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO, adding that "within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic" and advising that, for the next two weeks, people "should avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms."

"Schools shall be closed in Milan for a week " said Milan's mayor Giuseppe Sala.

From the tests carried out, it emerged that the alleged zero patient did not develop antibodies. Therefore, he never had coronavirus. The whole picture changes now" said Deputy Minister of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri.
Click to expand...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
The most interesting thing is how only a week ago all reports were that it was being contained, the rate of deaths and new cases in China was slowing, and then bam! four new self-sustaining outbreaks in Italy, Iran, Korea and Japan. In a week's time which countries will be next?

I'll predict, in a fortnight:

Canada
France
India
UK

Will all have self-sustaining outbreaks
 
its free real estate said:
snipped
What is interesting is the next phase of the pandemic (mitigation) means they will cease attempting to contain the spread across borders and attempt to slow the spread in cities. Which might entail working from home, schools being cancelled, no large gatherings. Somewhat defeating the move to let all the Chinese students back in the country (though I think that's less about them being at school and more about them being here to occupy investment properties and pay rent, etc).
Click to expand...

students turn up the pressure to permit their return to AU
with a health crisis that threatens to affect EVERYone, here we have these invincible, impatient students whose plans have been upset, carrying on as though they're being singled out ...
refunds can be sorted later for this bloody entitled lot, if you ask me.

www.theage.com.au

Virus response has damaged Australia's international reputation: students

The man representing Australia's 700,000 international students warned "exploited" students were already turning away from Australia's $38 billion higher education sector.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au


imho
 
its free real estate said:
The most interesting thing is how only a week ago all reports were that it was being contained, the rate of deaths and new cases in China was slowing, and then bam! four new self-sustaining outbreaks in Italy, Iran, Korea and Japan. In a week's time which countries will be next?

I'll predict, in a fortnight:

Canada
France
India
UK

Will all have self-sustaining outbreaks
Click to expand...

Why leave Indonesia out of the party?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Aristotle Pickett
  • Locked
Mid East Israel declare war after Hamas attack.
487 488 489 490 491
Replies
12K
Views
267K
Chief
Chief
Aristotle Pickett
Mid East Israel declare war after Hamas attack II
370 371 372 373 374
Replies
9K
Views
179K
Saint
Saint
Blue Arrow
Covid-19 Covid Inquiry, why no Royal Commission?
Replies
23
Views
1K
Werewolf
Werewolf
B
China's Covid lockdown protests
2
Replies
28
Views
1K
Zidane98
Zidane98

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top