List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Trade FA Megathread

[Winmar2Lockett]

why would we trade dunstan?

We wouldn't.... The comment was said in jest

 

[TassieSaint]

[warning: long post] Okay so because I am bored and had a bit of spare time today, I decided to make a comparison between our current rebuild and our previous rebuild using our 2004 losing preliminary final team as a case study. Bearing in mind I think most of us would agree we could have easily pinched a flag in
'04, yes it would have been a bit arsey but no more so than Hawthorn '08 for example.

I have grouped the 22 who played that night by recruitment e.g. whether they were remnants of the '97 grand final time, traded in/recycled mature players, drafted pre bottom out (2000 onwards) or drafted during bottom out + a handful of other relevant players (ages in brackets):
’97 era players (5): Harvey (33), Hudghton (28), Jones (28), Peckett (32), Thompson (32)
Traded/Recycled (7): Black (25), Knobel (24), Gehrig (28), Guerra (22), Penny (23), Powell (28), Voss (26)
Drafted pre-bottom out (3): Baker (24), Blake (23), Hayes (24)
Drafted during bottom out (7): Ball (20), Dal Santo (20), Goddard (19), Koschitzke (22), Maguire (20), Milne (24), Riewoldt (22)
Injured/Not Selected of note: Hamill (27, 18 games in ‘04), X Clarke (21, 19), S Fisher (22, 7), Montagna (20, 9), Gram (20, 2)

I then compared this to what I would say is our current best 25 (if everyone was fit and had to play a grand final tomorrow, excluding Lenny):
Best 25
B: Fisher Delaney Dempster
HB: Gilbert Gwilt Geary
C: Montagna Weller Ray
HF: Dunstan Riewoldt Billings
F: Schneider Stanley Templeton
R: Longer Armitage Steven
Int (ext): Newnes Hickey Savage Bruce Webster Wright Curren

’09 era players (8): Fisher, Dempster, Gilbert, Gwilt, Montagna, Riewoldt, Schneider, Ray
Traded/Recycled (6): Delaney, Weller, Longer, Hickey, Savage, Bruce
Drafted pre-bottom out (7): Geary, Armitage, Steven, Stanley, Newnes, Webster, Curren
Drafted during bottom out (4): Dunstan, Billings, Templeton, Wright

My notes based on the above comparison:

• Whilst we are still over-reliant on '09 era players, we aren't too far away from '04. Whilst we still have a few to move on (and regardless Fish and Schneids minimum will be retiring this year or next) I don't think we need to cull the whole lot bar Riewoldt, and in fact it may be detrimental. Also I'm sure some will note by '09 when we were our best chance all 5 senior players from the rebuild (+ all 7 traded/recycled players) were gone but by that point what were our younger players had played 9 finals across 4 seasons, invaluable experience.
  
• Although we have around the same amount of recycled players, there's a big diff in quality. Gehrig was AA in '04, Hamill un-injured was A grade and Penny and Powell in particular were guns. I have high hopes for the 6 I listed but we still need to recruit at least 1 proven gun imo.
• The numbers for drafted pre and during bottom out are inverse but I reckon this will correct itself over the next 2 drafts. I see Stanley and Curren at least losing their place to newer draftees and given our aggressive trading I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Armo traded.
  
• The quality we picked up over 2000-2002 was ludicrous and will be nigh impossible to replicate, but the 4 blokes from our current rebuild all have huge potential and then you have someone like Acres who might pull a Joey and take a few seasons to cement his spot. Still I'm not suggesting we can pull a turnaround as quick as we did before, which I think the club recognises based on the 2018 goal.

Conclusion/TL;DR

• I don't think we need to get rid of all our senior players, just some
• We could really do with luring a big fish in at the trade table/free agency
• Will still need this draft and next, but hopefully only those two
• Overall aim should be: Get rid of 3 (min) senior players, nail 5 picks worth of new talent (+ Acres), trade in for one or more big guns = rebuild complete.
• Props to anyone who could be arsed reading all of that lol

 

[sammm]

deep cut coming

well if the depp cut is coming who do we think will be gone?

 

[sammm]

Opinion or whisper?

I think Richardson said it himself.

 

[Baughb]

someonone on saintsational said milera is on personal leave and is now back in SA. Maybe its true?

Didn't he do something similar a year or two ago?

I think if we are going to start Winmar'ing contracts then he is first to go. Too many have overtaken him compared to other contracted fringe players. Simpkin should stay given how thin we are in key defensive posts.

 

[kernelT]

well if the depp cut is coming who do we think will be gone?

Without getting outrageous, you could easily see 7
Hayes, Maister, Jones, Dennis-Lane, Dunell, Milera, Simpkin,
Also in the balance (5 more)
Schneider, Fisher, Gwilt, Siposs, Roberton,

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Roberton isn't going to be moved on.

 

[kernelT]

Roberton isn't going to be moved on.

You're probably right… but 6 games this year has been very disappointing in a side decimated by injuries.

I would have Webster, Acres, Newnes, Wright, Savage ahead of him for a half back role.

Certainly behind Geary, Fisher & Gilbert if they are fit.

 

[Nutsngum]

Why exactly does everyone have a hardon in getting rid of Siposs? We are persistent in keeping Stanley on who has been listed for almost twice as long and still isnt what I would call consistent enough yet ignore the rising star nominee which still does account for some level of skill in my opinion.

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

You're probably right… but 6 games this year has been very disappointing in a side decimated by injuries.

I would have Webster, Acres, Newnes, Wright, Savage ahead of him for a half back role.

Certainly behind Geary, Fisher & Gilbert if they are fit.

He has been injured himself and struggled with his ankle which explains why we haven't seen the 2013 Dylan Roberton.

 

[Hayes4PM]

why would we trade dunstan?

A few posts above that someone hypothesized trading Dunstan, I responded by admitting I would cry like a toddler throwing a tantrum.

 

[Half Back Pocket]

Without getting outrageous, you could easily see 7
Hayes, Maister, Jones, Dennis-Lane, Dunell, Milera, Simpkin,
Also in the balance (5 more)
Schneider, Fisher, Gwilt, Siposs, Roberton,

No to bolded 2.

I think its fairly clear we'll drop off:

Hayes, Maister, TDL, Jones, Dunell. Schnides i'd assume as 75% gone. Fish is 50/50.
Gwilt is a FA and would be encouraged to seek greener pastures a la Dal last year.
Milera has a contract, but i can't see the point in keeping him (the AFL will pay anyway)

Could be 9, or 10 if we are ruthless (Simpkin for eg)

 

[BrianSpeaking]

Roberton is signed for three years on nice coin, Siposs is contracted for next year.
Un named sources say out will go Fisher, Dunell, TDL, Milera, Jones, Michington, Maister, Hayes and maybe Schneider. That's 8 from the senior list and one rookie. Trade bait for the right price in Stanley, Steven, Armitage, Lee, Gwilt and Ross. All except Ross will be 28-30 in 2018.

We should get the first draft picks in 14 and 15, along with the 2nd pick in 2015 as a comp pick, with a pick in the top 3 in 2016. Two first picks in the 14 and 15 pre-season drafts, with a heavily targeted GWS player(whom we haven't identified yet ) a likely pre season pick next year.

For people who think Lewis Pierce will be delisted, they need to go and watch some VFL footy, he is our future number 1 ruck man.

 

[kernelT]

Why exactly does everyone have a hardon in getting rid of Siposs? We are persistent in keeping Stanley on who has been listed for almost twice as long and still isnt what I would call consistent enough yet ignore the rising star nominee which still does account for some level of skill in my opinion.

Stanley is probably our only ruck/forward on the list, has shown glimpses of brilliance… is 200cm, fastest on the list, in the top 10 in the AFL for contested marks

Siposs hasn't played a good game of AFL football yet, maybe 1 against GWS in a 100 point flogging. He's not big enough to play key forward, lacks speed and natural endurance, he's not demanding a game from VFL form… And his main weapon (kicking) seems to have deserted him. He was a very speculative pick and probably not going to cut it at AFL level. - Hope I'm wrong here again.

 

[Hayes4PM]

I think a few people need to remember these guys are athletes training for or of the more demanding sports, just because Roberton has struggled through an ankle injury and not played overly well and Tom Lee has struggled through shoulder injuries ad not played very well does not necessitate they are bad players and deserving of being cut. I would give a similar amount of leniency to Siposs if he wasn't as lazy and up himself as many people suggest. I would say Siposs' career is balancing on a knife edge right now ad what he does this pre season will determine his future.

Edit: never posting on my phone again, autocorrect can go suck an egg

 

[kernelT]

Roberton is signed for three years on nice coin, Siposs is contracted for next year.
Un named sources say out will go Fisher, Dunell, TDL, Milera, Jones, Michington, Maister, Hayes and maybe Schneider. That's 8 from the senior list and one rookie. Trade bait for the right price, Steven, Armitage, Lee, Gwilt and Ross.

For people who think Lewis Pierce will be delisted, they need to go and watch some VFL footy, he is our future number 1 ruck man.

Did he get a recent extension? Cause he signed a 2 year deal, last year.

 

[gringo2011]

Stanley is probably our only ruck/forward on the list, has shown glimpses of brilliance… is 200cm, fastest on the list, in the top 10 in the AFL for contested marks

Siposs hasn't played a good game of AFL football yet, maybe 1 against GWS in a 100 point flogging. He's not big enough to play key forward, lacks speed and natural endurance, he's not demanding a game from VFL form… And his main weapon (kicking) seems to have deserted him. He was a very speculative pick and probably not going to cut it at AFL level. - Hope I'm wrong here again.

What he said.

 

[Periphery]

Trade bait for the right price in Stanley, Steven, Armitage, Lee, Gwilt and Ross. All except Ross will be 28-30 in 2018.

What are your thoughts on what the 'right price' would be?

 

[gringo2011]

Roberton is signed for three years on nice coin, Siposs is contracted for next year.
Un named sources say out will go Fisher, Dunell, TDL, Milera, Jones, Michington, Maister, Hayes and maybe Schneider. That's 8 from the senior list and one rookie. Trade bait for the right price in Stanley, Steven, Armitage, Lee, Gwilt and Ross. All except Ross will be 28-30 in 2018.

We should get the first draft picks in 14 and 15, along with the 2nd pick in 2015 as a comp pick, with a pick in the top 3 in 2016. Two first picks in the 14 and 15 pre-season drafts, with a heavily targeted GWS player(whom we haven't identified yet ) a likely pre season pick next year.

For people who think Lewis Pierce will be delisted, they need to go and watch some VFL footy, he is our future number 1 ruck man.

Gwilt would get nothing...he's a free agent so not sure what the right price would be? Agree on Pierce he is a really high potential player. Minchington is a shame, he looks to be a bit like Curren.... earned respect through solid VFL form, I guess Ledger did too though.

 

[Defacto]

Good. Bring it onnnnnnn.

What sort of numbers are we looking at though? Surely not 10+?

didnt say. just big

 

[joop]

.Trade bait for the right price in Stanley, Steven, Armitage, Lee, Gwilt and Ross. All except Ross will be 28-30 in 2018.

We should get the first draft picks in 14 and 15, along with the 2nd pick in 2015 as a comp pick, with a pick in the top 3 in 2016. Two first picks in the 14 and 15 pre-season drafts, with a heavily targeted GWS player(whom we haven't identified yet ) a likely pre season pick next year.

For people who think Lewis Pierce will be delisted, they need to go and watch some VFL footy, he is our future number 1 ruck man.

Bolded: YUK
Underlined: Im almost 100% sure i know who it is, and ill s**t my pants if its true. I know all the GWS players have potential, but this guy could be the best out of them all.

 

[Defacto]

someonone on saintsational said milera is on personal leave and is now back in SA. Maybe its true?

woah. really?

 

[TassieSaint]

Bolded: YUK
Underlined: Im almost 100% sure i know who it is, and ill s**t my pants if its true. I know all the GWS players have potential, but this guy could be the best out of them all.

Mate no point in beating round the bush here name names.

 

[Defacto]

Roberton is signed for three years on nice coin, Siposs is contracted for next year.
Un named sources say out will go Fisher, Dunell, TDL, Milera, Jones, Michington, Maister, Hayes and maybe Schneider. That's 8 from the senior list and one rookie. Trade bait for the right price in Stanley, Steven, Armitage, Lee, Gwilt and Ross. All except Ross will be 28-30 in 2018.

We should get the first draft picks in 14 and 15, along with the 2nd pick in 2015 as a comp pick, with a pick in the top 3 in 2016. Two first picks in the 14 and 15 pre-season drafts, with a heavily targeted GWS player(whom we haven't identified yet ) a likely pre season pick next year.

For people who think Lewis Pierce will be delisted, they need to go and watch some VFL footy, he is our future number 1 ruck man.

ive heard gwilt gone. minch 50/50.

i assumed fisher would be safe, given gwilt but i guess who knows

whens list lodgement 1?

 

[Nutsngum]

Stanley is probably our only ruck/forward on the list, has shown glimpses of brilliance… is 200cm, fastest on the list, in the top 10 in the AFL for contested marks

Siposs hasn't played a good game of AFL football yet, maybe 1 against GWS in a 100 point flogging. He's not big enough to play key forward, lacks speed and natural endurance, he's not demanding a game from VFL form… And his main weapon (kicking) seems to have deserted him. He was a very speculative pick and probably not going to cut it at AFL level. - Hope I'm wrong here again.

Well I would say that at minimum his rising star against Essendon would be considered a "good game" but looking over his stats history he has kicked 2goals + behinds in 6 of this 25 games and influenced the scoreboard in many more then that. From eyeballing it he looks to average around 4 or 5 marks a game which I would classify as being good. His tackle work is admitably less then acceptable and the main reason he probably only played a handful of games this year.

I just feel his upsides are a lot greater then his downsides at the moment and more then worth persisting with for another year.