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Thanks for your comments.Good luck.
earning money in punting takes a lot of dedication and most commonly a pretty strong understanding of maths. Selectivity and self-control are majors stumblings blocks for most people. Long term winners are in the fraction of a percentage of the population. It's best not to put forecast values on it rather try and improve each month and I can garantee it will be rocky early. I'll admit my knowledge of sports betting compared to racing is minimal and I rarely bet on AFL but try to be selective. From afar I would suggest it would be extremely hard to have a positive ROI betting 9 head to head games a week.
It's cool, found a spreadsheetNot a fixture but easy enough to add into these bet tracking spreadsheets http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/
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I've done some more detailed analysis of the odss I can expect to be betting into, and my own tipping habits and biases.
Some interesting outputs:
Some lessons for me from this:
- There were three teams I tipped at less than 50% accuracy last year: Richmond (i didn't think they were any good), Melbourne (Also thought were terrible) & Port (blind faith)
- There was a pretty even spread of high, mid & low table teams across the spectrum of tipping accuracy, it clearly showed my biases for or against certain teams however
- I underrated the importance of home ground advantage for similarly matched teams in the first half of the year. I corrected this after the bye and improved my tipping by about 1 tip per round
- Tipping pre-bye was volatile, wild swings from 5s to 8s and back to 5s, with higher odds. Tipping post bye was stable, weeks of 7s in a row at lower odds.
- There is a negative correlation between high average odds rounds and tipping accuracy, which works in your favour to limit losses but works against you by limiting winnings as well
- Working on averages, flat betting makes you money with a tipping accuracy of 6.5ish. Average odds per round do not take into account outliers (ie, bulldogs defeating sydney or essendon toppling hawthorn). Remove the outliers and the average odds reduce significantly - making 7+ tips per round a requirement for profit.
- Tipping 4 averaged a 30% loss, Tipping 5 averaged a 10% profit (only 1 round of 5 for me last year, a bye round), rounds of 6 a 7% loss, rounds of 7 a 3% gain and rounds of 8 a 25% gain.
- Gimme wins (odds of 1.10 or under) are harmful to the bottom line as they do not contribute enough to overcome the money lost on poor tips
Changes to the strategy:
- My tipping is not accurate enough to make a profit flat betting head to head matches
- My biases will cost me big time
- The weakness of both Carlton & Essendon will mean that 80% of rounds will have at least 2 games with odds less than 1.10, making success even harder
- One poor week will wipe out a month of gains
- Betting during the bye rounds is risky business - one adverse result can cause a loss
- accuracy early in the season is vital, the odds area better as the pecking order is yet to be established
- Development of a system to increase tipping accuracy and reduce impact of biases (more on this to come - this has been a bit of fun)
- Track two systems across the season. One selective based on predicted probability versus available odds, the other flat betting as previously highlighted
- Use of this season as a data collection and model validation exercise. Therefore, I will not be chasing down sign-up bonuses as I don't want to waste that until I have a system that is at least somewhat reliable
- Goals for the year revised to a profit of any kind and a partially validated predictive model
So I mentioned in my previous post that I was putting together a predictive model to help with my little betting project. Well V1 of the model has been completed and been put through it's paces in round 1 of the NAB challenge.I've done some more detailed analysis of the odss I can expect to be betting into, and my own tipping habits and biases.
Some interesting outputs:
Some lessons for me from this:
- There were three teams I tipped at less than 50% accuracy last year: Richmond (i didn't think they were any good), Melbourne (Also thought were terrible) & Port (blind faith)
- There was a pretty even spread of high, mid & low table teams across the spectrum of tipping accuracy, it clearly showed my biases for or against certain teams however
- I underrated the importance of home ground advantage for similarly matched teams in the first half of the year. I corrected this after the bye and improved my tipping by about 1 tip per round
- Tipping pre-bye was volatile, wild swings from 5s to 8s and back to 5s, with higher odds. Tipping post bye was stable, weeks of 7s in a row at lower odds.
- There is a negative correlation between high average odds rounds and tipping accuracy, which works in your favour to limit losses but works against you by limiting winnings as well
- Working on averages, flat betting makes you money with a tipping accuracy of 6.5ish. Average odds per round do not take into account outliers (ie, bulldogs defeating sydney or essendon toppling hawthorn). Remove the outliers and the average odds reduce significantly - making 7+ tips per round a requirement for profit.
- Tipping 4 averaged a 30% loss, Tipping 5 averaged a 10% profit (only 1 round of 5 for me last year, a bye round), rounds of 6 a 7% loss, rounds of 7 a 3% gain and rounds of 8 a 25% gain.
- Gimme wins (odds of 1.10 or under) are harmful to the bottom line as they do not contribute enough to overcome the money lost on poor tips
Changes to the strategy:
- My tipping is not accurate enough to make a profit flat betting head to head matches
- My biases will cost me big time
- The weakness of both Carlton & Essendon will mean that 80% of rounds will have at least 2 games with odds less than 1.10, making success even harder
- One poor week will wipe out a month of gains
- Betting during the bye rounds is risky business - one adverse result can cause a loss
- accuracy early in the season is vital, the odds area better as the pecking order is yet to be established
- Development of a system to increase tipping accuracy and reduce impact of biases (more on this to come - this has been a bit of fun)
- Track two systems across the season. One selective based on predicted probability versus available odds, the other flat betting as previously highlighted
- Use of this season as a data collection and model validation exercise. Therefore, I will not be chasing down sign-up bonuses as I don't want to waste that until I have a system that is at least somewhat reliable
- Goals for the year revised to a profit of any kind and a partially validated predictive model
So I mentioned in my previous post that I was putting together a predictive model to help with my little betting project. Well V1 of the model has been completed and been put through it's paces in round 1 of the NAB challenge.
How the model works (not too much detail):
Model Performance so far:
- Splits each team into fwds, mids backs
- Each player gets an offensive and defensive rating out of ten, based on a comparison table I put together of representative players
- The rating represents their average performance. The best offensive player (probably Danger or J Kennedy) does not get a 10 and the worst offensive player (probably Zac Dawson or Steven Morris)
- There is also some inherent variability in performance integrated into the model
- Based on the individual players in each line, a team gets 6 scores for fwds, backs & mids offence & defence
- This is then compared to the scores of the opposition and a percentage likelihood of either team calculated
All in all, pretty happy with the performance so far. We'll see if it can keep it up in the season proper.
- 7 from 7 so far (not that it has been particularly difficult to pick)
- Weaknesses where I don't know the depth of a teams list that well, particularly NSW & QlD teams and s**t teams (cartlon, melbourne), players just get a standard rating based on a guess
- This weakness should be less prevalent during the season proper when best 22s are played, and I will be getting better and better knowledge of the teams
- Bias for teams with quantity over quality. The Eagles/Crows game was an interesting case study - they had a line-up with about 10 defenders in the 26 where as adelaide really only had 6 forwards. Consequently, the 10 average defenders scored higher than the 6 really crows forwards, which included two high class options in tex and betts.
- This weakness will also be less prevalent in the season proper due to the reduced bench size. I will have to consider how to include the 'no match-up' factor in however (ie no kpd v a kennedy or hawkins)
- At this stage there does not seem to be much correlation between % likelihood of winning and score - so no line bets at this stage. Early days though.
Some other interesting observations:The representative player rating table - should inspire some interesting debate
View attachment 219275
Thanks for the tip. That reminds me, I had an email from UBet that had something about a special offer of $2 for Port to make the 8. Better investigate that one!Sportsbet currently running a special.
Port are $11 to win the premiership, so I put 25 down on them. Plus we have a good early draw, so should score some good free bets.
- Place 25 dollar bet on a team to win the premiership
- Recieve a 5 dollar bonus bet for every win that team has up to round 12.
William Hill got a similar one. They've had some cracker specials these last few days.Sportsbet currently running a special.
Port are $11 to win the premiership, so I put 25 down on them. Plus we have a good early draw, so should score some good free bets.
- Place 25 dollar bet on a team to win the premiership
- Recieve a 5 dollar bonus bet for every win that team has up to round 12.
Sportsbet currently running a special.
Port are $11 to win the premiership, so I put 25 down on them. Plus we have a good early draw, so should score some good free bets.
- Place 25 dollar bet on a team to win the premiership
- Recieve a 5 dollar bonus bet for every win that team has up to round 12.
Can't find that in the app
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Bugger. Probably because I'm already on at 10s and 13s.It may have been an SMS promo only. I received the offer via SMS.
Met the turnover requirement pretty quickly and made a modest profit on top of what I'd made from the Robbie Gray bet.I take all credit
No offense mate but I would stay the **** out of casinos if I were you.I have been on big losing streak lately....
I am finding I am getting up on some stage on my weekends but giving it all back and then some....
But on my holiday at Singapore I was 3500 down on the casino there my misses was pissed...
Long story short on my 2nd last day I had all the shrapnel of coins that I had no idea what to do with.....so I take it down the casino...it turns out it was 14 dollars worth of coins...
I proceed to to take that 14 dollars and turn it into 5300in 12 hours of intense gambling......my misses was still pissed off though