List Mgmt. 2015 Draft, Trades and Retirements Thread Pt 1

[The Swans Blog]

Mod edit: Updated 18-Sept-2015
- Added club statement regarding trade ban: we can only replace a departing player with a contract offer of up to $450,000 p.a.

The AFL have agreed that the Swans would be permitted to replace ONE player who leaves the club as either a free agent or as part of a trade, with a contract offer of up to $450,000 per year.

If the club chooses to replace a departing player with this option, the Sydney Swans’ transitional COLA amount of $600,000 for the 2016 season will be lowered by 9.8 per cent of the traded-out player’s contract, if that player was contracted for 2016.

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-09-18/club-statement-trade-restrictions

OP edit: Updated 3-Sept-2015
- Added extra options to trade selection list

OP edit: Updated 7-Sept-2015
- Added Harley Bennell to trade selection list
18-Sep-2015 update: Gold Coast believed to be asking for 2 first round picks

OP edit: Updated 8-Sept-2015
- Added Jeremy McGovern to trade selection list
- Added Craig Bird to trade list

OP edit: Updated 23-Sept-2015
- Added Kieran Jack to the tradeable player list
- Updated Craig Bird

Mod edit: Updated 25-Aug-2015

This is very early in the season to start a thread like this, but a pattern is starting to emerge where it's likely that 2 players will retire and another will be traded. It's an important year for us and vital for us to remain competitive and be successful because of our trading restrictions. If the proposed draft changes are introduced, as direct change because of they Sydney Swans academy producing Heeny, Mills and Dunkley, then the club is going to have to scrutinise the list more closely than previous years.

Swans article:
http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-01-28/afl-proposes-draft-bidding-changes

AFL General Counsel Andrew Dillon said the working party had tested the system against the draft as it endeavoured to develop a system that fulfilled the Commission's need for a non-compromised draft and its aim to ensure northern states are able to brand and invest in their academy systems.

"A revised bidding system would seek to provide consistent and objective compensation for father-son and academy selections, while continuing to incentivise clubs to select father/son players and invest in their local academies to continue to grow the overall talent pool for the AFL," Dillon said.

AFL:
http://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/Training/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf
Slide 4 details the process for bidding, which essentially destroys the investment academies puts into players because of the risk/reward of selecting them, and the same goes for father/sons. And it's clear as day that this change was introduced because of Heeny, because they even use him in their example. If we were to pick up Mills this draft, we wouldn't be able to pick up anyone else of value because all of our remaining drafts would be the very last picks.

Draft
Callum Mills - (Academy) 1st to 3rd overall selection, 25% reduction
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-07-07/codehopper-drafttopper
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...faces-of-new-south-wales-20150407-1mg7jj.html

Position: Midfielder
Callum Mills will be at the top of every clubs' wish list come the end of the season, baring some sort of injury nightmare. Since July last year he's been touted as the 2015 draft topper, even better than Heeny, and Heeny was very highly rated. We will need to use our first round pick.

Josh Dunkley - (F/S) 1st round, 15% reduction
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-28/the-next-crop-who-are-2015s-top-draft-prospects
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-04-01/draft-discount-on-the-cards
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...e-to-make-up-their-minds-20150811-giwssq.html

Position: Defender
Josh is another highly rated player that's likely to be selected in the first round. Fortunately for us he's a F/S pick and he's trained with the club and wants to play for us. Problem for us is that we'll be using our first round pick to secure Mills. To get both players, we will need to trade for a 1st round pick.
August 2015 update: Looking like he will stay in Victoria and may slip down the draft order.

Trades
Kieran Jack (c) - 182 games, 28 years old
Position: Midfielder
Value: Player trade/1st round pick
Probability: Low
A premiership winning midfielder and great club leader has not signed on beyond 2015. It's highly unlikely that he will be traded, however if he does not sign an extension this season, he will need to be traded, or will enter the draft. Earlier in his career he was a proven goal kicker, but his best season in 2012, was as a hard 2-way running midfielder, capable across the entire field. He's struggled for form and consistency since 2013, coinciding with his rise to captain.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/players-out-of-contract-at-the-end-of-2015.1094897/
(2013) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...cing-adam-goodes/story-fnca0u4y-1226593540866

Craig Bird - 136 games, 26 years old
Position: Midfielder
Value: Player trade/2nd round pick
Probability: High
OP Update 23-Sep-2015 (Probability: Very high, likely a 2nd round pick, has not played since mid-season)
A premiership winning tagger who started his career as a small forward cum midfielder, who spent the majority of his career as a tagger. He's a proven goal kicker, including the 4 goals he kicked on Bob Murphy in 2011. He finished 9th in the 2012 Bob Skilton medal. Since then he's slid down the pecking order as younger players have come through the midfield and the team has evolved from the mosquito fleet into bigger, powerful ball winners. Parker coming through really was the end of Bird.
He's contracted until the end of 2016, but with Jetta heading west and Bennell now available, he's likely to be used in a player-swap or pick trade.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-08-04/bird-stays-in-swans-nest

Tom Mitchell - 18 games, 21 years old
Position: Midfielder
Value: 1st round pick or 2nd + 3rd
Probability: High
OP Update 8-Sep-2015 (Probability: None)
A proven ball winner and inside midfielder, could have gone to Carlton in the trade period but the Swans talked him into staying. He's struggling to get into the side, and with Heeny and Mills, it's just about impossible for him to get a game. Whilst he doesn't lack in ball winning potential, he just doesn't have the power of Kennedy, or the disposal efficiency of a good midfielder. He reminds me of a slower Watson with equal ball winning potential.

I don't think he's certain to go, but quite likely.
August 2015 update: Contracted until 2016, has now cemented his spot in the best 22 and is happy in Sydney. Unlikely to be going anywhere.

Gary Rohan - 31 games, 23 years old
Position: Midfielder/Forward
Value: Late 1st round or early 2nd round pick
Probability: Low
OP Update 26-Aug-2015 (Probability: None)
A fast player with bags of potential who's struggled through severe injuries in his short playing career. Has shown in spurts what he's capable of, in between periods of being invisible or unsighted on a football pitch. He's naturally a forward, but has been played as a winger and rebounding defender in the past 2 seasons without dominating a position. If played in his natural position with room to run, he is a dangerous player.

I doubt that we would get a 1st round pick for him because of his injury past, but depending on his season he may become more valuable.
August 2015 update: Contracted until 2017. Unlikely to be going anywhere.

Daniel Hannebery - 133 games, 24 years old
Position: Midfielder
Value: 1st round pick + 2nd round pick, or equal value player swap
Probability: Very Low
OP Update 8-Sep-2015 (Probability: None)
Each season this pops up. It's almost always bullshit and driven from Victorian media, most frequently by Purple head. I always pour cold water on this nonsense and this year it's no different. But if we do lose him, it won't be in 2015 with the trade restrictions that we have.

But when we do lose him, and I think it's inevitable that we do, we can expect a very high draft selection for him, or an equal quality player swap. He's the kind of player you could go to Adelaide and demand Dangerfield in return for.
August 2015 update: Signed a new contract until 2021. He ain't going anywhere.

Harry Cunningham - 19 games, 21 years old
Position: Forward/Midfielder
Value: Late 2nd round pick
Probability: Moderate
OP Update 8-Sep-2015 (Probability: None)
I would think that he would be thrown up as trade bait in the same way that Buchanan and Schneider were at the end of 2007. He won't command the same value as those players, but he might be valuable enough to get an upgraded pick to help snare Mills and Dunkley. I would think that in 3 seasons time, unless he's progressed and substantially improved, he'll find game time very hard to come by.

Lewis Jetta - 88 games, 25 years old
Position: Forward/Midfielder
Value: Late 1st round pick
Probability: Moderate
OP Update 26-Aug-2015 (Probability: Very Likely; has not signed a new contract this season)
OP Update 8-Sep-2015 (Probability: Definitely gone, most likely West Coast)
OP Update 23-Sep-2015 (Probability: Gone, officially requested trade)
It's a well known and publicized fact that he has a young family who've originated from WA and he aspires to return home at some point in his life, either during his playing career or after. His 2012 season was excellent, but 2013 and 2014 were indifferent. So far he's been good this season but it really is a flip of the coin on this one. He's probably our best link player and we would lose a lot by flogging him, but we would get good value in return.
August 2015 update: Fremantle have expressed interest.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...neys-lewis-jetta/story-e6frf3e3-1227452765141

OP Update 8-Sep-2015: West Coast are most likely suitors
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...500254937?sv=e78850d5894437c6bbbcb22978618ddb

Zak Jones - 4 games, 19 years old
Position: Defender/Midfielder
Value: Late 1st round or early 2nd round pick
Probability: Very low
OP Update 26-Aug-2015 (Probability: None)
http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2014-10-23/2014-in-review-zak-jones
Zak, the younger brother of Nathan Jones, Melbourne captain, was a 1st round draft pick in 2013. He made his debut last year impressing on the HBF, filling in for both Shaw and McPointy when they were injured. He played 2 games consecutively in 2 instances, separated by an Achilles injury. tizzay7 raised this as an option and a good point really. The impending retirement of Shaw and his playing time possibly limited this season to form, it's quite possible that Jones could make his mark. Rohan and Jetta have both played in the HBF position, both incomprehensibly unconvincing, whereas Jones was quite adept and convincing, making an immediate impact in his first game. I think that the only way this is done is if Shaw goes around for another year and Dunkley is rated as indomitably good as a HBF'r, capable of making an immediate impact.
August 2015 update: Re-signed until 2017.

Retirements
Adam Goodes - 35, 352 games
Probability: Guaranteed
AFL champion, Swans games record holder, has already discussed this season as being his last.

Rhyce Shaw - 33, 213 games
Probability: Very high
A very good player for the Swans since coming over from Collingwood, training for a new position. It was questioned at length last season if he was fit enough to continue after his constant leg and knee battles, but has gone on for another season. This season is likely to be his last due to form, pace and decision making, which have all been on the decline since his excellent 2012.
August 2015 update: Will retire at the end of 2015.

Alex Johnson - 23, 45 games
Probability: Moderate
OP Update 26-Aug-2015 (Probability: None, has expressed desire to have another shot at returning to AFL)
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...e-reconstruction/story-e6frf3e3-1227468130015)
This kid has been terribly unlucky, our own version of Morabito. His last game was the 2012 grand final and what a performance it was. But since has had 4 knee reconstructions and continues to have inflammation after every surgery. It was mentioned last season that he may have to retire if he continues to have knee problems. He had another knee reconstruction this year, and should he continue to experience knee issues, will probably retire.

Ted Richards - 32, 232 games
Probability: Moderate
OP Update 26-Aug-2015 (Probability: None, won't retire unless he has a career ending injury, will go into 2016)
You never really know with Richards. Even last year it looked like he was on his last legs. I think if he were to experience a severe leg or knee injury he would retire, but I think that 2016 will be his last season. He's tapered off since his stellar 2012 season, losing a yard of pace and being out-bodied too often by smaller and lighter players.
Sep-15 Update: Has re-signed until the end of 2016.

New section: potential trade/FA targets
Zac Smith (Gold Coast, ruckman) (rumoured, depending on trade ban, Essendon already in race)
Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane, ruckman, free agent) (rumoured, depending on trade ban, Essendon already in race)

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/sydney-swans-to-fight-trade-sanctions-20150817-gj18eg.html
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-26/your-clubs-trade-targets

 

[The Swans Blog]

I didn't add Sam Reid because I think that there's no chance the club would entertain a trade, unless it was for a defender. I'd like to see us go after Rance in 2016 and throw Reid + young gun at Richmond.

 

[Stav85]

I didn't add Sam Reid because I think that there's no chance the club would entertain a trade, unless it was for a defender. I'd like to see us go after Rance in 2016 and throw Reid + young gun at Richmond.

I've seen this idea mentioned a few times and I have to disagree. Not sure why we'd trade Reid for a defender when I think he could be a very good defender for us for another 10 years

 

[The Swans Blog]

I've seen this idea mentioned a few times and I have to disagree. Not sure why we'd trade Reid for a defender when I think he could be a very good defender for us for another 10 years

Because by the end of 2016 Richards will have definitely retired, if he doesn't do it this season. We're going to need a rock-solid defender to take his position and Rance is excellent. Rance would entertain the trade because we'll still be in grand final contention and we can give Richmond good value in return, potentially flogging off one of our young guns when we start hording them. We would have to overspend to get him, but it would be like the Hawks getting Gibson - it really is a win-win for both teams, but especially for Hawthorn.

I think it'll be excellent list management if we get Mills and Dunks this year and then start trading some of our established players in 2016 to get even better players.

 

[replicant]

I didn't add Sam Reid because I think that there's no chance the club would entertain a trade, unless it was for a defender. I'd like to see us go after Rance in 2016 and throw Reid + young gun at Richmond.

I thought we were limited to trading in players under the average salary. So isn't Rance impossible for us?

 

[McRobie]

I thought we were limited to trading in players under the average salary. So isn't Rance impossible for us?

I believe we ca only trade players in who earn an average AFL salary, what a fking joke, does that sounds village or what?

 

[The Swans Blog]

I thought we were limited to trading in players under the average salary. So isn't Rance impossible for us?

This season he is, unless we can lift the trade ban, but if he's at richmond next season, who knows...

 

[The King!]

Why is it inevitable we lose Hannebery?

So under the proposal you say we get Mills and basically cannot get anyone else of value? Does that include Dunkley.

I think we have to also be mindful of a few other things.
Currently our best key defender imo is Grundy and my understanding is he is a free agent end of the year.

Mcveigh and Pyke are also getting on in age too.

 

[The Swans Blog]

If we want Mills and Dunkley, we need to trade for them. This is the situation the AFL has put us in. We've finally produced something in the Sydney Swans Academy, and the AFL doesn't want us to dominate the AFL for large periods of time, like BLs, WCE and Swans did in the naughties. It was 7 years before a Victorian team won the premiership and the amount of noise they were making was deafening.

We've been properly ****ed by the AFL this season, no doubt, but we can still put it to good use and bring in the players we need. I just fear that we're going to be really weak in defence in 2 years time.

 

[Number37]

Why is it inevitable we lose Hannebery?

So under the proposal you say we get Mills and basically cannot get anyone else of value? Does that include Dunkley.

I think we have to also be mindful of a few other things.
Currently our best key defender imo is Grundy and my understanding is he is a free agent end of the year.

Mcveigh and Pyke are also getting on in age too.

Sheesh you've already retired Goodesy, now McPoint & Pykey as well.
Is that you Eddie?

 

[The King!]

Sheesh you've already retired Goodesy, now McPoint & Pykey as well.
Is that you Eddie?

Ill retire you in a minute

 

[Lakeside Swan]

I didn't add Sam Reid because I think that there's no chance the club would entertain a trade, unless it was for a defender. I'd like to see us go after Rance in 2016 and throw Reid + young gun at Richmond.

I agree. Ranch is the exact player we need. It will be even more important if we lose Grundy. My gut feeling however is that he'll go back to WA. Probably Freo.

 

[Millky95]

I agree. Ranch is the exact player we need. My gut feeling however is that he'll go back to WA. Probably Freo.

I think he would go to WCE, will be closer to a flag. Freo fell off last year and WCE have more improvement than Freo in the near future

 

[The King!]

I saw chunkychicken suggesting Sydney go after Rance was popular on the main board

 

[The Swans Blog]

I saw chunkychicken suggesting Sydney go after Rance was popular on the main board

Richmond supporters were meh, it's that clogger guy who's really lost his s**t over it. He really would be the icing on the cake for us, but I just don't see us getting him unless our trade ban is lifted.

 

[Number37]

You never know with Ireland. Perhaps offer him a 6 week contract to lure him out of Richmond, comply with the AFL ban, then resign him straight away. GENIUS!

 

[The Swans Blog]

You never know with Ireland. Perhaps offer him a 6 week contract to lure him out of Richmond, comply with the AFL ban, then resign him straight away. GENIUS!

I could see some Tippet-esque trade tampering to get him. First year - $250k. 2nd year $1.35m - hahaha

 

[Swansujelly]

it's all bullshit and I hate Eddie.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Lets try to satisfy Grundy demands first?

 

[FreeAgent1]

I could see some Tippet-esque trade tampering to get him. First year - $250k. 2nd year $1.35m - hahaha

Just so you know we dont HAVE to trade to get both.

The article says "Under the proposal, clubs who want to obtain more than one player eligible in a single year as an academy or father-son pick will be able to make up the points requirement the following season."

It may be better for us to just compromise our 2016 draft if people arent playing fair, as we can have to COLA and trade ban behind us then.

Id rather trade into 2016 than be forced into a crap trade by a VIC club to get points for mitchell this year. Thoughts?

 

[The Swans Blog]

It's too much of a risk to compromise. What happens if we get several serious injuries and we need a ready replacement? Or someone retires and we need to trade for them? We won't get anything with 4 4th round picks. While it sort of makes sense in an AFL sense, the AFL is not the NBA or NFL. We don't have hundreds of players moving in the post season, nor do the picks hold the same value. The desire for the AFL to emulate American sports is going to * up the player economy, and it already has. FA was supposed to free up player movement, but so far it's broken the poor clubs and improved to wealthy and most importantly, successful clubs.

Frawley was ever only going to go to Hawthorn when we were banned from drafting. Why wouldn't he? He gets to stay in Melbourne, he doesn't have to travel every week, he gets a decent pay packet because they can afford it, and he's likely to play in a grand final in his first year.

 

[FreeAgent1]

It's too much of a risk to compromise. What happens if we get several serious injuries and we need a ready replacement? Or someone retires and we need to trade for them? We won't get anything with 4 4th round picks. While it sort of makes sense in an AFL sense, the AFL is not the NBA or NFL. We don't have hundreds of players moving in the post season, nor do the picks hold the same value. The desire for the AFL to emulate American sports is going to **** up the player economy, and it already has. FA was supposed to free up player movement, but so far it's broken the poor clubs and improved to wealthy and most importantly, successful clubs.

Frawley was ever only going to go to Hawthorn when we were banned from drafting. Why wouldn't he? He gets to stay in Melbourne, he doesn't have to travel every week, he gets a decent pay packet because they can afford it, and he's likely to play in a grand final in his first year.

I think Paul Roos stated the draft strategy;

With f/s (no academy's at time) you pick on talent and trade for position.

I.e. if you desperately need a ruckman but your f/s is worth pick 4, take the f/s and trade to get a ruck. I assume a similar strategy would be preferred here. If Dunkley and Mills are better than we are likely to get with late picks/ pick 14-18 next year, take them now.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

Just so you know we dont HAVE to trade to get both.

The article says "Under the proposal, clubs who want to obtain more than one player eligible in a single year as an academy or father-son pick will be able to make up the points requirement the following season."

It may be better for us to just compromise our 2016 draft if people arent playing fair, as we can have to COLA and trade ban behind us then.

Id rather trade into 2016 than be forced into a crap trade by a VIC club to get points for mitchell this year. Thoughts?

I agree 100%. Better off using nearly all of our draft picks for the next two years to get Mills and Dunkley. A club is better to get two potential guns players who really want to play for them than to draft 8 players, 2-3 of which which may become good regular players in the 22. The additional players we need can be drafted via the rookie system.

 

[mark121]

Just so you know we dont HAVE to trade to get both.

The article says "Under the proposal, clubs who want to obtain more than one player eligible in a single year as an academy or father-son pick will be able to make up the points requirement the following season."

It may be better for us to just compromise our 2016 draft if people arent playing fair, as we can have to COLA and trade ban behind us then.

Id rather trade into 2016 than be forced into a crap trade by a VIC club to get points for mitchell this year. Thoughts?

Far too many questions remain unanswered under the proposed changes. We may not even be able to get both Mills and Dunkley if Mills costs us all our draft picks with points value.

Are we even able to match a bid with pick 80 with points taken from next years draft? if not we may be forced to trade for a pick with points to spare to recruit both.

Are we able to trade picks we have and still bid on players? obviously we wont be allowed to trade away all our draft picks and match bids with pick 100 but could we trade pick 33 for picks 35 and 36 for example increasing the points value of our elections and still match a bid of 32?

 

[Ticky009]

Can't discount the Lions influence either re draft order. What we want is for them to finish last & use their picks on Keays.

Still think its too early to call until clarity on the new bidding is ratified.