Carlton - What do Carlton do with the number 1 pick?

[Masqualero]

Hypothetically what if a 7 year deal at 1.2-1.3 million per season to come home to the crows sits there waiting for him after the 2 year contract is up..might be an offer too good to refuse - for Lukosius. Does club culture beat that

Then if a deal that is acceptable for us is offered he will be traded, if not he can be drafted again or sign a contract to take him to FA.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Not saying it would happen but if the club thinks he is the one and can't trade for him this year, it might be something they gear towards and if a player when leaving nominates a club he wants to get to - he gets there and a deal is struck

If your club thinks he’s the one you will try and get him now before he even has the chance to settle in with us.

Everyone thought Gibbs would come home after his initial contract too.

 

[Crow till I die]

Then if a deal that is acceptable for us is offered he will be traded, if not he can be drafted again or sign a contract to take him to FA.

or he could choose to walk to the draft and when a player does that, they tend get there (luke ball is an example that springs to mind). But mate, this is all hypothetical and we are just speculating on possible options. I hope that the clubs can do a suitable deal to swap the pick this year (IMO I think that our 2018 & 2019 1st round picks + the melbourne 2018 1st round pick would be a fair deal)

 

[Crow till I die]

If your club thinks he’s the one you will try and get him now before he even has the chance to settle in with us.

Everyone thought Gibbs would come home after his initial contract too.

and Pavlich was also the same..but player movement is really in a new era now and it is not unlikely for players to decide to move - look at Lever and more particularly, Dangerfield. He could have got far more money at another Vic club, but just wanted to go home to Geelong

 

[Masqualero]

or he could choose to walk to the draft and when a player does that, they tend get there (luke ball is an example that springs to mind). But mate, this is all hypothetical and we are just speculating on possible options. I hope that the clubs can do a suitable deal to swap the pick this year (IMO I think that our 2018 & 2019 1st round picks + the melbourne 2018 1st round pick would be a fair deal)

I know he can go to the draft because I mentioned it in my post.

If Lukosios goes to the draft and is as good as everyone is saying you are kidding to think he won't get picked up early.

Luke Ball was mismanaged at St kilda and was half the player he used to be (due to OP) when he got picked up by Collingwood in the draft.

Nick Stevens is the better comparison, he wanted to go to Collingwood and ended up getting taking by us.

No one is going to leave a player in the draft without reason.

So if Lukosios gets OP and loses all his running power and kicking penetration and then decides to go back to the draft, you may be in with a shot unless you already have a very high pick at that point; if all of this happens you wouldn't be getting the same pick 1 type player anyway.

 

[Crow till I die]

I know he can go to the draft because I mentioned it in my post.

If Lukosios goes to the draft and is as good as everyone is saying you are kidding to think he won't get picked up early.

Luke Ball was mismanaged at St kilda and was half the player he used to be (due to OP) when he got picked up by Collingwood in the draft.

Nick Stevens is the better comparison, he wanted to go to Collingwood and ended up getting taking by us.

No one is going to leave a player in the draft without reason.

So if Lukosios gets OP and loses all his running power and kicking penetration and then decides to go back to the draft, you may be in with a shot unless you already have a very high pick at that point; if all of this happens you wouldn't be getting the same pick 1 type player anyway.

I didn't mean the draft this year. I was referring to when he is at the end of his first contract if he really wants to come back to SA and if no deal can be struck, he can then nominate for the draft that year and it would be extremely unlikely that a club would then take him if he has made it known he wants back to SA and has already left his club after only 2 years

 

[Masqualero]

I didn't mean the draft this year. I was referring to when he is at the end of his first contract if he really wants to come back to SA and if no deal can be struck, he can then nominate for the draft that year and it would be extremely unlikely that a club would then take him if he has made it known he wants back to SA and has already left his club after only 2 years

Mate, please read and think before you post.

If you do not offer what we want he can either A: Sign a new contract that will take him to FA or B: Nominate for the draft.

If he goes to the draft for a second time and he has lived up to his potential you will still need a high pick to get him because no team will leave a gun player for your team for nothing.

If you think a poor performed team that needs a key forward is not going to select someone who has lived up to potential, has had two years in the system and looks like they will be a gun, you are dreaming.

Look at Nick Stevens.

Luke Ball is the worst example because he was literally half the player he was at Saints due to injury.

Clubs picked up kids before Ball because they for the most part felt that the kids had more to offer in the long run, Collingwood wanted a mature body to support Swan, Pendlebury and Thomas ect.

 

[Pns_blister]

Saw this from Dylan12 over on the Brisbane board and thought I’d post it here.

IF Dayne Beams wanted to return back to Victoria for family reasons as reported.

Would Carlton trade pick 1 and their 2018 second rounder to the Lions in exchange for Dayne Beams and pick 3 (or 4) depending on Tom Lynch leaving via Free agency?

 

[Bearded Clam]

If your club thinks he’s the one you will try and get him now before he even has the chance to settle in with us.

Everyone thought Gibbs would come home after his initial contract too.

All this “you thought Gibbs would” and “everyone said Pavlich would” come home crap is irrelevant...

That was in the past when players actually respected contracts and free agency.. we’ve seen in recent times these no longer matter.. lads these days, whether they are contracted or not, just say “I’m homesick, see ya later, oh, and this is the club I’m going to deal with them and get the best deal you can”..
And now the afl themselves, including the head of the whole organisation, has said publically several times this year that they want to free up player movement and make it far easier for players to move clubs.. they will probably introduce a mid season trade week next year and make further changes to Free Agency in favour of increasing ease of player movement.

People dwelling on what happened in the past need to open their eyes and ears and listen to noises coming out of the AFL and wake up to the fact that players no longer care about contracts or FA.

Personally, as an AFL/SANFL supporter for my whole life, and also an NRL supporter for nearly two decades now, I’d like to see the draft and FA system totally removed, what sort of arse backward system rewards you for being shit!. NRL teams have a salary cap and players move around freely, NRL supporters are used to it as are the NRL teams and players... the AFL draft system is, with F/S and academy’s etc, quickly becoming a joke anyway. Piss it all off.

The AFL won’t though because they need to mollycoddle their less successful Victorian and expansion teams..

 

[Shaz2012]

This thread is constantly derailed by arguing the value of Gov, and now Matt Crouch for some weird reason. Gov and Crouch are going nowhere. Adelaide will have 2 first round picks, next years 1st and an early 2nd.

The real problem with this discussion is that Carlton want to trade out pick 1, but still take Walsh. It’s not possible.

Why would the Gold Coast want to trade up to pick 1? If they had pick 1, they would be talking to Carlton to do the reverse trade.

The most desirable player in this draft is actually Walsh. Not because he is the best player, but because he seemingly is not a flight risk. The thought is that Suns would take both King boys in the HOPE that they don’t flee. But that overlooks the obvious that there is going to be a player there that is a generational mid that won’t flee.

So take picks 2 & 3 off the table, Suns unlikely to prefer Luko. Next you have Brisbane, again their priority will be Walsh. If they feel that Suns are going to take him, then they MIGHT trade up for him. But they will have every reason to believe that he will be there.

The earliest club Carlton can trade with is St Kilda, but they don’t have any other picks. Would Saints really do pick 5 and next years first? Maybe. There is your starting point right there.

WB could do 6 and their 2019 first? Would that be ok with Carlton fans? They won’t pay more than that I wouldn’t have thought.

Then Freo with 7 and 2019 first.

Brisbane and Gold Coast unlikely to even have Luko as their first choice. Saints, WB and Freo have no other picks inside the top 40 between them. Really the most likely trade is with one of these three plus their 2019 1st. That really should be acceptable to Carlton fans too.

 

[Crow till I die]

Mate, please read and think before you post.

If you do not offer what we want he can either A: Sign a new contract that will take him to FA or B: Nominate for the draft.

If he goes to the draft for a second time and he has lived up to his potential you will still need a high pick to get him because no team will leave a gun player for your team for nothing.

If you think a poor performed team that needs a key forward is not going to select someone who has lived up to potential, has had two years in the system and looks like they will be a gun, you are dreaming.

Look at Nick Stevens.

Luke Ball is the worst example because he was literally half the player he was at Saints due to injury.

Clubs picked up kids before Ball because they for the most part felt that the kids had more to offer in the long run, Collingwood wanted a mature body to support Swan, Pendlebury and thomas etc

If you think that a guy that has just walked out on his club after 2 years because he wants to go back to SA is going to be picked up by another club..good luck with that. What if that player declares he will then sit out of football if he cant get back to SA

 

[harrisendblue]

and Pavlich was also the same..but player movement is really in a new era now and it is not unlikely for players to decide to move - look at Lever and more particularly, Dangerfield. He could have got far more money at another Vic club, but just wanted to go home to Geelong

Correct though it goes the other way also. Just look at Rory.

 

[harrisendblue]

If you think that a guy that has just walked out on his club after 2 years because he wants to go back to SA is going to be picked up by another club..good luck with that. What if that player declares he will then sit out of football if he cant get back to SA

Of course he will get picked up and retained on the list until such time as he plays or is traded.

 

[Cleric]

or he could choose to walk to the draft and when a player does that, they tend get there (luke ball is an example that springs to mind). But mate, this is all hypothetical and we are just speculating on possible options. I hope that the clubs can do a suitable deal to swap the pick this year (IMO I think that our 2018 & 2019 1st round picks + the melbourne 2018 1st round pick would be a fair deal)

Thats a ridiculous trade. No way in gods earth the club goes anywhere near that.

 

[Shaz2012]

Here is an analysis of what the OP is asking from the real world.

http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=30427



So maybe you could do GC pick 2 for their 3rd (~pick 39). That would get you the overs you are after.

 

[Crow till I die]

Correct though it goes the other way also. Just look at Rory.

Agreed.. I guess I am only playing devils advocate with the commentary. There is every chance Lukosius if drafted will likely stay on as there has been no commentary to say otherwise from our boards

 

[Mego Red]

Mitch McGovern isn’t worth a top 10 pick.

If Adelaide really want #1 then their first rounder, Melb’s first rounder and Carlton’s second rounder should be the deal. Carlton hold all the cards.

If they really want Rankine they should deal with Saints.

There is absolutely no way the Adelaide Crows are trading a contracted McGovern for anything less than a top 10 pick.

 

[Mego Red]

Mitch is definately not worth a top 10 pick. in his first year playing 23 games only averaged 10 disposals and kicked 32 goals. Played 13 games last year and only 8 so far this year. Doesn’t take the number one defender when he plays and is surrounded by a pretty good forward line. Not what i would call elite.

He's a contracted matchwinner tall forward with gecko hands. He's absolutely a required player with the Crows and was a massive part in them getting to the Grand Final last year.

If it's not a mind-blowing deal, he stays for the next two years.

 

[Mego Red]

Who is giving up a pick in the top 10 for McGovern? Especially this year?

Anyone that wants him. That's the price.

 

[CFC_#17]

Saw this from Dylan12 over on the Brisbane board and thought I’d post it here.

IF Dayne Beams wanted to return back to Victoria for family reasons as reported.

Would Carlton trade pick 1 and their 2018 second rounder to the Lions in exchange for Dayne Beams and pick 3 (or 4) depending on Tom Lynch leaving via Free agency?

I think that’s a good trade, but not sure the club would, due to Beams age. And I think Brisbane would want more for Beams then a second rounder and a 3 pick upgrade.

 

[Mego Red]

Are there any players in the entire league that would demand three first round picks in a trade?

And yet that's what people think pick one is worth? Crazy.

 

[harrisendblue]

Saw this from Dylan12 over on the Brisbane board and thought I’d post it here.

IF Dayne Beams wanted to return back to Victoria for family reasons as reported.

Would Carlton trade pick 1 and their 2018 second rounder to the Lions in exchange for Dayne Beams and pick 3 (or 4) depending on Tom Lynch leaving via Free agency?

No

 

[HFF]

Luke Ball is the worst example because he was literally half the player he was at Saints due to injury.

Clubs picked up kids before Ball because they for the most part felt that the kids had more to offer in the long run, Collingwood wanted a mature body to support Swan, Pendlebury and Thomas ect.

Luke Ball still played quality football for the Pies.
He was far from finished.
In fact, the only reason other clubs didn't touch him was purely because they knew he didn't want to be there and thew price he placed on his head.
Nobody was going to draft a player in the first or early second round and waste a selection on a player that didn't want to be there.
Many clubs would have loved to have him if he was actually open to going there.

However, as for this thread, I don't see Carlton trading out pick 1.
They don't have the balls to do it IMO.
It's too big a risk for them to take.

 

[Peel67skin]

I also think Carlton don't have ball to do it , imagine pick 1 become superstar and their exchange multiple pick all crap .

 

[harrisendblue]

This thread is constantly derailed by arguing the value of Gov, and now Matt Crouch for some weird reason. Gov and Crouch are going nowhere. Adelaide will have 2 first round picks, next years 1st and an early 2nd.

The real problem with this discussion is that Carlton want to trade out pick 1, but still take Walsh. It’s not possible.

Why would the Gold Coast want to trade up to pick 1? If they had pick 1, they would be talking to Carlton to do the reverse trade.

The most desirable player in this draft is actually Walsh. Not because he is the best player, but because he seemingly is not a flight risk. The thought is that Suns would take both King boys in the HOPE that they don’t flee. But that overlooks the obvious that there is going to be a player there that is a generational mid that won’t flee.

So take picks 2 & 3 off the table, Suns unlikely to prefer Luko. Next you have Brisbane, again their priority will be Walsh. If they feel that Suns are going to take him, then they MIGHT trade up for him. But they will have every reason to believe that he will be there.

The earliest club Carlton can trade with is St Kilda, but they don’t have any other picks. Would Saints really do pick 5 and next years first? Maybe. There is your starting point right there.

WB could do 6 and their 2019 first? Would that be ok with Carlton fans? They won’t pay more than that I wouldn’t have thought.

Then Freo with 7 and 2019 first.

Brisbane and Gold Coast unlikely to even have Luko as their first choice. Saints, WB and Freo have no other picks inside the top 40 between them. Really the most likely trade is with one of these three plus their 2019 1st. That really should be acceptable to Carlton fans too.

GC need very good players in their prime now so its no guarantee they wont match any offer - they've had that many picks already. Im sure its time they send out a message to the comp and would assume get supported by the AFL. They do a trade and get as a minimum B to B+ plus player plus a top 10 pick and maybe next years. Don't just think their Prez will just say yep ok you can go Tom. Then the horse trading really begins. This also allows them to pick a RFA/URFA without any issues.

Alternatively lets say they believe they can do a deal with Crows and again get a good player eg McGovern then it provides them with a reason to do a deal with us.

There are countless possibilities however there is only one certainty - Blues will not give up 1 without someone paying overs.