Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[Obeanie1]

So the value of the 2023 pick one seems to be a hot topic much more than previous years.

Harley Ried is the talk of the town.......nation.

So lets see some predictions from our astute Big Footy draft watchers.

1. What will it take?
2. Will the pick get traded? Y/ N
3. Would you trade pick 1 for the right offer if it was your call?

 

[weltschmerz]

The Dogs have been in a position for a couple of years where we’ve paid a lot for one very high pick. Stoked to have both JUH and Darcy, but the compromise is bringing in fewer of the handy types and hidden gems you can get in the second and third round.

I’d prefer three first rounders, which is the currency spoken about for pick 1, to Harley Reid. He’s surely an exceptional player, but look at Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

22

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

for the way a sure thing pick 1 can go down in an instant. I’d prefer three good chances of getting a strong player, than one excellent chance.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

1. Melbournes suite of picks is probably in line with a reasonable offer. A top 5 pick, a pick in the teens and a future 1st isn’t far off what I’d expect. GWS currently have picks 3 & 7 which is also a reasonable offer, although I’d rather keep the GWS hand

2. No

3. Yes I would, but that’s primarily because we’ve already taken JUH (pick 1) and Darcy (pick 2) in recent years. Dogs are one of the clubs who need multiple very good talents over one great one. If it’s a club in a desperate situation who needs to get the best talent they can and sell hope to their fans, then I’d assume they wouldn’t be selling. Although North did last year so who knows

 

[The Nostradamus]

A top 5 pick and another first rounder

 

[Jeremias]

A top 5 pick and another first rounder

Would not be enough.

 

[LFTWNG11]

Assuming it’s WCE who hold the pick, and you’re essentially trading for Harley Reid.

I would put up Cripps, our first rounder (which will be top 10) and future first round as a starting point. Would that be enough? I’m not convinced. It’s going to take a lot.

 

[theiaofseed]

Two top 5 picks and late first rounder is the starting point.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Two top 5 picks and late first rounder is the starting point.

Reid is good but he is not that good.

Only a handful of players in the competition are worth that.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Assuming it’s WCE who hold the pick, and you’re essentially trading for Harley Reid.

I would put up Cripps, our first rounder (which will be top 10) and future first round as a starting point. Would that be enough? I’m not convinced. It’s going to take a lot.

If your gonna give away star players and picks for cheap, can we have Sam Walsh then and we will exchange players and picks with your mob and West Coast for that deal

 

[theiaofseed]

Reid is good but he is not that good.

Only a handful of players in the competition are worth that.

Thats what it would take, it's exactly what North were offered for JHF and Reid is better than JHF.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Thats what it would take, it's exactly what North were offered for JHF and Reid is better than JHF.

No we were offered 2 firsts and a swap of a first for a second which cancelled each other out

The media like to claim it was 3 firsts but in reality the net result was 2 firsts as the 3rd first was a late teens pick for a start of second rounder in return

 

[theiaofseed]

No we were offered 2 firsts and a swap of a first for a second which cancelled each other out

The media like to claim it was 3 firsts but in reality the net result was 2 firsts as the 3rd first was a late teens pick for a start of second rounder in return

Yes and exactly what I said

"Two top 5 picks and late first rounder is the starting point"

 

[The Nostradamus]

Yes and exactly what I said

"Two top 5 picks and late first rounder is the starting point"

The late first rounder is cancelled out by the early second we were going to give back

So it’s essentially 2 first rounders as the starting point (top 5/6 picks)

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Thats what it would take, it's exactly what North were offered for JHF and Reid is better than JHF.

You’re probably not wrong. I think any club offering that would be silly.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Reid is the best pick 1 in a long time and one of the most sure fire juniors ive seen imo. Theres no price that a club could realistically offer that would make me trade pick 1 this year if i had it.

 

[Mostyn]

A top 6 pick and a top 12 pick this year, and a F1.

 

[00Stinger]

Would not be enough.

So for instance pick 3 and 10 not enough?

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

 

[M Malice]

Almost every season the touted number 1 selection is built up as the best ever or close to, rarely ends up being the case in hindsight.

I would take a top 5 pick and another in the top 10 in a heartbeat.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

On Reid's performance pick 1 would be untradeable. No practical trade could be put together for it

 

[MisterMarcus]

I've always subscribed to the theory that if you're genuinely rebuilding - i.e. you accept your current list won't remotely cut it and you need some major changes - then it's better to get multiple very good players in rather than one 'superstar'.

Yes the 'star' may generate headlines and engagement.....but you're also putting all your eggs in one basket. If you have multiple critical positional needs, then one player can't cover them all. Also, that player could be a flop, or suffer serious injuries, or have a massive go home factor, or some other issues that stop them being the best for your club.

Trading #1 for (say), two Top 10 picks and another first rounder (or a good player) would make enormous sense. You get 3 chances to draft 3 different types of players. And having three 'very very good' players at your disposal is a sort of insurance against the one 'star' flopping for whatever reason.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I’m going with 3 first rounders, with one in the top 5 as a starting point.

The only clubs with two first rounders this year are GWS, North, Dogs and Dees.

But given neither of the dogs picks will be top 5, that just leaves the other three.

North wouldn’t do it because we need multiple elite recruits.

GWS and Dees are the only real possibilities, short of a JHF style mega trade.

 

[M Malice]

I've always subscribed to the theory that if you're genuinely rebuilding - i.e. you accept your current list won't remotely cut it and you need some major changes - then it's better to get multiple very good players in rather than one 'superstar'.

Yes the 'star' may generate headlines and engagement.....but you're also putting all your eggs in one basket. If you have multiple critical positional needs, then one player can't cover them all. Also, that player could be a flop, or suffer serious injuries, or have a massive go home factor, or some other issues that stop them being the best for your club.

Trading #1 for (say), two Top 10 picks and another first rounder (or a good player) would make enormous sense. You get 3 chances to draft 3 different types of players. And having three 'very very good' players at your disposal is a sort of insurance against the one 'star' flopping for whatever reason.

Goes for teams in contention as well IMO eg. Lance Franklin and Gary Ablett Jnr (2 of the GOATs) both left their teams and the very next season both their former teams won the flag.

 

[Obeanie1]

I’m going with 3 first rounders, with one in the top 5 as a starting point.

The only clubs with two first rounders this year are GWS, North, Dogs and Dees.

But given neither of the dogs picks will be top 5, that just leaves the other three.

North wouldn’t do it because we need multiple elite recruits.

GWS and Dees are the only real possibilities, short of a JHF style mega trade.

Players can also be involved.

Hawks have DGB and Brockman who would interest the Eagles if they held pick 1.

Pick 2 is allegedly a big drop from Ried's quality and potential. Hawks F1st would be needed and one of thise players.

North also could have a 3rd 1st if McKay leaves.

 

[HairyO]

Reid is the best pick 1 in a long time and one of the most sure fire juniors ive seen imo. Theres no price that a club could realistically offer that would make me trade pick 1 this year if i had it.

Depends who has it.

If there are 2 or 3 top WA boys and WCE have pick 1 then maybe they find a way to get all of them. One player wont fix their list. 3 will sure help a lot. With zero flight risk during the rebuild.

If its us then it would need to include a young key forward and a good 1st round pick.

 

[Slysh]

There is no realistic offer that a club would throw out that I’d accept for pick 1 this year.