Preview Preliminary Final: Collingwood v GWS, MCG 22 September, 7.50pm

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Mar 16, 2014
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Over the years, I’ve known quite a lot of characters, from the famous and accomplished, to the street-level creepsters. One night, a friend-of-a-housemate-of-my-girlfriend (a 20-something who used to munch dexies like M&Ms because he’d faked ADHD as a teenager) turned to me and said: “Look at this. It’s Tsunami footage from Japan.”

Look, I can’t claim it wasn’t completely educational. But mostly it was terrifying.

The thing about Tsunamis is that you can’t stop them, and if you’re in their way you can’t escape them. The GWS’s original Orange Tsunami was based on the sheer glut of talent they had: elite ball user after elite ball user, runners smoother than the latest Porsche. It was less a game style or plan and more just a consequence of a playing list that Craig Hutchison predicted would win Premierships for a decade.

The new Orange Tsunami is something different. It’s the modern, attacking, game plan. Born from Richmond with their forward handball game, improved by the Mighty Magpies into a thing of grace and beauty, and now adopted by the GWS once more when they realised that their old game plan was at least five years out of date.

So this week, it’s GWS turning our game plan against us – a meeting of Tsunamis! Have you ever floated in the ocean at exactly the spot where two waves (one bouncing back off a wall) meet? That’s what we’re going to experience this week. We’ll be shot in the air by the force.

GWS: the coming wave

So much can be said about this matchup. It takes a real football afficionado to do a forensic examination of GWS because they are perennially on the fringed of the media coverage. For me, I have a soft spot for them. Toby Greene has to be one of my favourite players. He has everything: tough, a genius ability to see the matrix, the kind of leader who stands in no-man’s land fearless as shells go off all around him, and a disdain for authority that should be more respected. I’ve got a soft spot for Jesse Hogan, that “I have challenges to my mental health so pass me the beer” journeyman, once destined to be a generational key forward for Melbourne, now playing solidly, a redemption story without the glitz. I have a soft spot for the fact they play in Western Sydney, a place no civilised football lover should find themselves in. If they beat us, it’s suck the big one, but I’ll be hoping they win it all.

As far as the Prelim goes, here are some considerations:

GWS are perhaps the most balanced team left in it. That really surprised me since I assumed they’d be struggling with holes in their list. But every part of their team has winners and every part of their game is in order.

Their defence looks much like ours, featuring elites interceptors and one-on-one players. Taylor, Himmelbeg, Idun, Buckley – and then the run and elite kicking of Whitfield and Ash.

Their midfield is like a bag of mixed lollies, diverse and sickening(ly) good. Green, Kelly, Coniglio, Ward. They have brutal hardness, they have sports-car speed. At least the ruckman Briggs isn’t likely to smash us the way Gawn regularly does.

The forward line is where I thought they’d struggle. But the triumvirate of Greene, Hogan and Riccardi has improved markedly. They are now imposing, and their small men Daniels and Bedford are now A-Graders.

Forget the stats which back all this up. This is now an elite team.

There is one anomaly to all this: just what the bleeding bejesus is Lachie Keefe still doing playing AFL? It’s a miracle. It’s the Second Coming. Some revelation is at hand! The dead rise for a second time!

When Two Tsunamis Clash

On this board a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that this was the clash that gave me chills, much more than Port.

Once again, we’re battling a team that is roughly on par with the Mighty Magpies. How will it play out?

The cliché that midfields win games has always been moronic. More than ever AFL is a team game. Everywhere matters. This midfield battle worries me most though. We’ve lost our best hard nut, Taylor Adams, who because of his slightly better pace than Mitchell would have been more important this week. Had he not played that immense first quarter against Melbourne we would not have put the score on the board early. GWS will get us for hardness. Then with Kelly, Coniglio, Whitfield, Ash of they backline – they edge us in midfield battle for pace.

What then are we superior in? The potential game-breaker DeGoey is a trump card. He does things none of the GWS can do. Then we have the accumulators, Mitchell, Sidebottom, Daicos (excluding last week), Pendlebury, all of whom are just steady, reliable, dependable. We can be competitive over the game, and that’s all we need. Nick Daicos may be added as a wildcard, but I think he'll start at halfback, where he made his name.

Our forward line, though, has aces they’ve not seen. The speed of Hill, the uniqueness of Elliot, the height of Cox (when he’s there), the brutality of McReery, the game-sense of Ginnivan. If we even the midfield, we’ll cut them up with our kaleidoscope of talent.

Our defence has shown in recent weeks just how good they are. They can do it all. They can defend relentless pressure. They can handle aerial attacks, ground-ball contests. They are like a fighter who has never been knocked out. You just can’t put them on the canvass. We can handle their forwards with the one exception of Toby Greene. Maynard probably gets him, since he’s our lock-down medium defender. But Greene will still kick a few and give off more. That’s just nature taking its course.

The final advantage we have is that our game plan is one year more developed, one year more finely tuned. And we will pressure the GWS more in a quarter than Port did all game. Theirs will wobble and fracture before ours.

So, match them in the midfield and our forwards and defenders will get on top.

The Washup

The Might Magpies will carry out their destiny and shoot into the stratosphere of glory, like a swimmer shot into the sky when two tsunamis meet.

The Pies by 13 points!
 
This will be my first final I’ve ever attended live so I’ll be even more nervous than usual!

Btw, everyone is comparing the current side to the 2019 prelim and fair enough but it’s very clear to see that the current side is much better hands down. And that’s why we’re a good chance to not repeat 2019.

I’ll be ropeable though if we lose this and the Scum win.
 

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Like you Fin this was the team I didn't really want to play

Yeah we should win and I think the back to back short breaks with travel thrown in may see them just fall short, but I'll gladly admit they make me very nervous.
 
Great write up Finnishpie

Looking forward to this contest, I deeply believe that we are a class above the giants, but anything can happen on the night, so we need to bring our A game

Can't lose 3 prelims in 5 years or it will start to become a thing

If we can get past GWS and get into the GF, it will be the best thing to happen to Collingwood since Jamie Elliott and Will Hoskin got married
 

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Changes to GWS since we easily beat them:

OUT: Flynn, Fleeton, Cadman, Angwin, Peatling, Haynes

IN: Briggs, Greene, Taylor, Cumming, Keeffe, Riccardi

Keeffe aside, that’s a very big upgrade.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Briggs/Greene/Taylor sure, but Briggs if he plays will be limited and Riccardi kicked 1 goal against a non-existent backline last week, let’s not get carried away.

Cameron and McStay come in for us, and we won last time by 11 goals off a 7-day break, GWS had 8. This time we have 15 days and they have 6.
 
Changes to GWS since we easily beat them:

OUT: Flynn, Fleeton, Cadman, Angwin, Peatling, Haynes

IN: Briggs, Greene, Taylor, Cumming, Keeffe, Riccardi

Keeffe aside, that’s a very big upgrade.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com


For us.

Out: Adams (20 disposals), Johnson (14 disposals, 1 goal), McInnes (4 disposals, 24% TOG), Noble (24 disposals)
In: Cameron, Howe, Lipinski, McStay
 
Great write up Finnishpie

Looking forward to this contest, I deeply believe that we are a class above the giants, but anything can happen on the night, so we need to bring our A game

Can't lose 3 prelims in 5 years or it will start to become a thing

If we can get past GWS and get into the GF, it will be the best thing to happen to Collingwood since Jamie Elliott and Will Hoskin got married

Thanks HPWS. Always appreciate a shout out.
 
Have any of these experts brought up last years 1 point loss to Sydney as motivation or are they just ignoring that.

I’ve had a sneaking suspicion for months that Fly behind the scenes has been frequently playing the last 5 minutes of that Prelim to them to make sure they remember what they missed and how it feels

Reckon if we go all the way you’ll see it in the doco
 
The proper review finally Finnishpie Maggie5

So what is it that gives us our (and now the giants) our speedy transition game?

Pressure, that's what leads to our one wood game, close space, turnover then off to the races.

We showed in glimpses the QF of this close space game, against a pressure team in the dees, who have been in form.

Let's be honest the giants were allowed easy transition against a banged up port, even against the saints they had patches of easy transition.

But let's not pretend that the Pies are either of those two.

Yeah I know it's popular for neutrals and media to look at gws and go 'wow play like Collingwood but are doing it better, so they'll win, put it in the book' < that's a very simplistic and at the same time dismissive view point.

There is no known universe that this Pies team will just let the giants walk onto the hallowed turf and just dictate terms. That seems to be the mantra from DK and others.

What's missing from that kindergarten level analysis is.
  • The Pies have been playing this style a lot longer and are more tuned to it
  • The Pies have the ability to tempo games or go to transition game seemingly at will, regardless of opposition, last game a good example.
Ok that last point maybe up for debate and is speculation, but it's fair speculation, in hindsight it seems we've been 'managing' our games like this all season.

Sure, there's argument that the opposition doesn't 'allow' us our game, but let's not pretend that's entirely due to the opposition, we're talking about a game clear and % clear team.

No doubt in my mind this is a deliberate ploy. For starters, there is no team that can play that intensity game in game out, wouldn't surprise that we've been 'reserving' it.

I'm confident we'll bring more of our A game for more game time in this game and then again in the big game.
 
Briggs/Greene/Taylor sure, but Briggs if he plays will be limited and Riccardi kicked 1 goal against a non-existent backline last week, let’s not get carried away.

Cameron and McStay come in for us, and we won last time by 11 goals off a 7-day break, GWS had 8. This time we have 15 days and they have 6.
Riccardi didn’t play before because he wasn’t selected lol.
 
I couldn’t believe how soft port were in that second quarter, the giants were breaking tackles at will. But later in the game when port stepped up the pressure, the giants fluidity halted.

We bring the heat, we win, it’s that simple.
It's something I have no doubt we'll do. We are primed
 
OfficialJordynRuffhead

I'll do my best to answer your questions here.

Haven't watched much GWS this year, have heard people talk about the orange tsunami etc.. and obviously Kingsley is also a Dimma disciple. Sounds like their game is quite similar to ours, what are the main similarities and differences between how they play vs how we play? I imagine their stoppage work is stronger than ours is?

There's not really a lot different in style between the two, in a very simplistic view, both teams ideal game is (without possession) close space, create turnover and transition with numbers forward of the ball, it's what gives us real estate i50 - and the giants.

^ Both teams have leg speed with their link players (after winning possession) like a Markov or a Hill who has pushed up the ground, and / or ball speed with surgical transition, think Nick or Josh passing won ball to a player in the clear in corridor like a Degs or Crisp.

The giants probably have superior centre clearance though, however we've won many games losing this metric, probably as a result of having organized team defence (not just d50) behind the ball. It forces opposition to kick to contest. Giants also seem to have similarly well organized team defence.

So they don't necessarily have a better stoppage game, apart from centre bounce, again doesn't seem to phase the Pies.

The question mark is that difference is gws have played teams that have been easy to apply their game to, on top of that haven't been applying this game style as long as we have - we have more continuity with this game for longer.

In short both games are high intensity requiring two way running to outnumber at the contest and outnumber on possession.

That's another question mark for the giants, they've been on planes and all over the country side and have played this high intensity game for most of their game time, and will have to do it again on a short break. They won't be able to bring that intensity for as long as what a fresh Pies can, not to mention we're much higher pressure than either the saints or power.

On face value it looks they're up against it.
 
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