Victoria Election - 29 November 2014

[Dont be a lemon]

All 88 Legislative Assembly seats (preferential voting in single-member districts) and 40 Legislative Council seats (instant runoff voting in eight multi-member regions) will be elected.

In the current lower house the Liberal-Nation coalition has 44 seats, Labor 43, and 1 Independent Geoff Shaw (former Liberal). Upper house is Liberal-National 21, Labor 16, Greens 3.

There has been considerable redistributions for both houses. Not me does a better job explaining them: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2013/redistribution.htm http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...stribution-legislative-council-estimates.html

Vote Greens

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Any stats on the last government to be ousted after a single term?

Still nearly a year to go, but the Liberals would be worried. What kind of response has the abortion argument received?

 

[pazza]

The lack of support for Napthine has been amazing.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think this shows how good it can be for a long-term government to not hang in there too long. Despite being in power for 11 years, the Labor government was still fairly well respected. If they'd won the last election they would've got very stale very quickly with issues like myki and the desalination plant being massive. Instead Brumby was enough of an idiot to piss off most of the electorate so that they lost very narrowly and put in a Liberal government that wasn't expected to get in.

Now it looks likely that Labor will be returned next year in a very strong position. My only issue is that I don't think the ALP have learnt the lessons in opposition that they need to and I don't think they're ready to govern again so soon.

 

[Mofra]

I'll be keeping an eye out for each of the parties transport and infrastructure plans.

Labor have released a general plan which is relatively comprehensive but still seems to be overwhelmingly geared towards road travel; gives the Greens a free kick in trying to pick up a lower house seat with a roads vs mostly roads choice between the major parties.

 

[Pessimistic]

Labor have released a general plan which is relatively comprehensive but still seems to be overwhelmingly geared towards road travel; gives the Greens a free kick in trying to pick up a lower house seat with a roads vs mostly roads choice between the major parties.

Level crossings is both rail and road, but im told the rail network needs work at the hub to cope if all level crossings were grade seperated

Thats major work at the hub by the way

 

[Mofra]

Level crossings is both rail and road, but im told the rail network needs work at the hub to cope if all level crossings were grade seperated

Technically yes, however rail already gets right of way at crossings so there is no discernible difference to train travelers (road users & inner city bike riders will benefit).

If the Doncaster line doesn't make sense, I wish one of the major parties would release a study that says so to cease the endless debate.

As an aside, it will be interesting to see if any of the Federal Political issues have much of an impact at state level.

 

[Pessimistic]

Technically yes, however rail already gets right of way at crossings so there is no discernible difference to train travelers (road users & inner city bike riders will benefit).

If the Doncaster line doesn't make sense, I wish one of the major parties would release a study that says so to cease the endless debate.

As an aside, it will be interesting to see if any of the Federal Political issues have much of an impact at state level.

There is a limit to how long trains can inhibit road traffic, which is reached during peaks. There could be more services IF there was rolling stock and IF there was hub capacity

 

[ross warren]

if people have that short of memories and vote labor in, then they deserve what they get, another desal plant that cost a billion and never been used, a myki system which is useless and cost billions, and a huge debt run up by labor, that the liberals have had to pay off, then I hope Victorians get everything and more that's coming their way if labor gets in

 

[Pessimistic]

if people have that short of memories and vote labor in, then they deserve what they get, another desal plant that cost a billion and never been used, a myki system which is useless and cost billions, and a huge debt run up by labor, that the liberals have had to pay off, then I hope Victorians get everything and more that's coming their way if labor gets in

Just wait for the 15 billion dollars east west link which only 20% of eastern freeway users will use


Nd if its like citilink it wont work until. Future govt spends even more billions fixing up the problems like with citylink- westgate

 

[Mofra]

if people have that short of memories and vote labor in...

The last two state governments to lose their AAA rating have been Lib governments.

It's always a marker of the simplistic when they stick to the tired, untrue mantra of 90s sloganism.

 

[hamohawk1]

the e-w link is a real sticking point. there is a growing resentment by the public for it and the libs are continuing to push it along

 

[Slax]

This election is going to be ugly for the Libs. Can't see them getting close to winning the election and will lose both house by a big margin, expecting somewhere in the order of a 15-18 seat swing against the government.

Reasons:
Geoff Shaw - this was just ugly for the Libs, regardless of the legal view point on it a judge refused to put Shaw on the diversion program and the government then withdrew charges. The public know that if Shaw was found guilty he'd lose his seat and the Libs would lose power with frankston returning to Labor. Stinks of corruption because simply it is.

Public Transport - The Libs won power by winning the seats on the Dandenong & Frankston train lines promising an improvement to public transport and new infrastructure projects to provide better train services and removal of some level crossings. The level crossings going have been in safe Liberal seats and the train services haven't improved, if anything got worse. These voters won't use the East-West tunnel because they would be using City Link.

East-West tunnel - This is not the number one road priority in the state and claiming it is more important than solving the public transport crisis is nuts. Economic modelling provide questionable benefits and no-one in private industry is willing to go near this as it is another Clem7 in the making. Badly thought out and an absolute vote loser. Even strong Liberal seats want the money spent on public transport knowing that if it was it could solve a number of existing problems. A new underground train running North-South through the CBD, an airport link, Doncaster line, 3rd track from Caulfield to Clayton.

Transperency - this government has stunk more than the Labor government they ousted and they were on the nose. Have been hiding for the whole time in power, refuse to release documents under FOI and refuse to handle questioning in parliament.

Parliament is a joke - that is really the only way to describe it. The speaker does not have the confidence of the house and Napthine won't replace the speaker so it is going aroudn in circles and everyone is shaking their heads.

The media - The likes of the Herald-Sun, Andrew Bolt and 3AW have always been pro Liberal, currently they aren't. A nuetral press is bad news of the Libs, a negative press spells disaster, the media won't change their tone over the next 12 months basically because Murdoch doesn't see any advantage in Napthine being in power over Labor.

Federal - whilst not always a big influence in state elections if Abbott doesn't start doing something positive and stays on the same train it won't help. A federal govenment on the nose with the public is consider worth about 1% swing against the state government, that swing alone would cost the Libs power. Add into this that Abbott still has the funding for the E-W tunnell under review and if he decides that Labor will win this election anyway he could well decide that it is $1.5b that he doesn't need to spend so dump the funding promise and sell out Napthine. Labor don't want the money so why bother giving it if they're going to win the election anyway.

The polls are heading in the wrong direction quickly and I would be surprised if a poll was done now it was closer to 44-56 against the government. Only a miracle or a massive scandal might save Napthine, but even then it is still no guarantee.

Also wondering if all those who were quoting me odds earlier this year on the Libs winning and wanting to bet me on are still willing to part with their money?

 

[Pessimistic]

If the libs get booted on the east west it will be a great step forward

I suspect their main motivation for it was a political wedge between labor and greens, yet infrastructure australia, the independent body designed to prevent politicians wasting money on politics

Beautiful irony if the voters actually reject it.

 

[pazza]

I'll add another issue to slax's list.

Paramedics.

Living here, there can be no doubt that the pay campaign by the Paramedics and the Ambulance Union has been demonstrably effective. There isn't an ambulance in Victoria that doesn't mention it. All communities would be aware of the issue.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I'll add another issue to slax's list.

Paramedics.

Living here, there can be no doubt that the pay campaign by the Paramedics and the Ambulance Union has been demonstrably effective. There isn't an ambulance in Victoria that doesn't mention it. All communities would be aware of the issue.

Add in the teachers dispute earlier on. The fact that the government came to a deal with police, giving the union practically everything they wanted in pretty quick time, as well as promoting investment in prisons while making the likes of teachers, nurses and paramedics fight for every scrap they could get showed where the government's priorities lay. I don't think that sat well with the public at all.

 

[Bosun]

Dont think it will be the whitewash you all think it will be. Andrews hasnt exactly covered himself in glory and the stench of Brumby, Bracks and Thwaites still hangs low.

 

[pazza]

Dont think it will be the whitewash you all think it will be. Andrews hasnt exactly covered himself in glory and the stench of Brumby, Bracks and Thwaites still hangs low.

Dunno.

Andrews hasn't exactly been silent, not caused a lot of trouble so far.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Dont think it will be the whitewash you all think it will be. Andrews hasnt exactly covered himself in glory and the stench of Brumby, Bracks and Thwaites still hangs low.

I seriously worry about Andrews. He's gone the Abbott route with Geoff Shaw and relentlessly crucified the government on it. Every time I hear him speak he just talks with overblown rhetoric about the disgraceful nature of this government. There's nothing to suggest the ALP are ready to lead. In saying that though we're going to find out quick smart because, barring a miracle, the Liberals are gone.

 

[Bosun]

I seriously worry about Andrews. He's gone the Abbott route with Geoff Shaw and relentlessly crucified the government on it. Every time I hear him speak he just talks with overblown rhetoric about the disgraceful nature of this government. There's nothing to suggest the ALP are ready to lead. In saying that though we're going to find out quick smart because, barring a miracle, the Liberals are gone.

I dont think a miracle is needed. I am so disappointed with Baillieu however he tried the lay low and work behind the scenes with no actual leasdership. Saying that Andrews is a poor mans Abbott, you can hate Abbott but he got support onside by vilifying a dysfunctional government, Andrews has not done that at all and while the EW link is unpopular on here, it is very popular on your Neil Mitchells, Bolts etc. I think it will be a close election.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I dont think a miracle is needed. I am so disappointed with Baillieu however he tried the lay low and work behind the scenes with no actual leasdership. Saying that Andrews is a poor mans Abbott, you can hate Abbott but he got support onside by vilifying a dysfunctional government, Andrews has not done that at all and while the EW link is unpopular on here, it is very popular on your Neil Mitchells, Bolts etc. I think it will be a close election.

If you're talking about ability to function I don't really see the difference between federal Labor, with their continual leadership junk, and Victorian Liberal, with the farce that has become of parliament with a speaker who likely doesn't have the confidence of the floor. All Abbott and Andrews had to do was scream "farce" loud enough and the public will listen. Considering the lack of attention paid to state parliament and the fact Labor is on the nose nation-wide it's incredible that a first-term state government is polling so poorly.

And considering the east-west link is basically a massive cash splash to win votes it's pretty unpopular:

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/v...oubts-about-eastwest-link-20131128-2yclj.html

 

[Bosun]

If you're talking about ability to function I don't really see the difference between federal Labor, with their continual leadership junk, and Victorian Liberal, with the farce that has become of parliament with a speaker who likely doesn't have the confidence of the floor. All Abbott and Andrews had to do was scream "farce" loud enough and the public will listen. Considering the lack of attention paid to state parliament and the fact Labor is on the nose nation-wide it's incredible that a first-term state government is polling so poorly.

And considering the east-west link is basically a massive cash splash to win votes it's pretty unpopular:

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/v...oubts-about-eastwest-link-20131128-2yclj.html

Errr the whole Smith speaker thing is a Shaw intiative, Andrews acted like a little s**t and so did Jacinta. * em. I dont like the Libs but right now they look more competent.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Errr the whole Smith speaker thing is a Shaw intiative, Andrews acted like a little s**t and so did Jacinta. **** em. I dont like the Libs but right now they look more competent.

I know it was a Shaw initiative but he was voted in as a Liberal member and it puts out the impression that the government is dysfunctional and incompetent. I'm not really disagreeing with you (I've got no confidence in either side) but publicly the ALP is winning this battle hands down just like Abbott won the battle in a similar way federally.

 

[Pessimistic]

East west is over six times the desal before its even blown out yet.

Refer infrastructure australia which is a neutral agency

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Myki fares to jump, says state government

The cap on weekend public transport tickets will be increased to $6 and rules around Myki two-hour tickets will be tightened, Treasurer Michael O’Brien has announced in the mid-year budget update.

The two-hour tickets will now apply for exactly two-hours after the ticket is touched on, under the current system the two-hour period is rounded up to the nearest hour.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/myki-fares-to-jump-says-state-government-20131213-2zc4q.html

******* bastards!