Vic Victorian Election 2022

[mighty tiges]

The new Victorian state electoral boundaries for the 2022 election have been released.

Full list: https://antonygreen.com.au/draft-victorian-state-electoral-boundaries-released/


* All up Labor has gained a seat from the Libs ( nominally ALP 56, LIB 20, NAT 6, Greens 3, IND 3 ).

* While the uniform swing needed for a Coalition victory in 2022 dips slightly, it remains in double digits at 10.5%.


The seats that have been abolished, created or have nominally switched:

Division	Old Margin	New Margin	Change
Bass	ALP 2.4%	LIB 2.1%	4.5 to LIB (nominal LIB)
Bayswater	ALP 0.4%	LIB 0.9%	1.3 to LIB (nominal LIB)
Ferntree Gully (abolished)	LIB 1.6%	..	LIB loss
Greenvale (new seat)	..	ALP 22.3%	ALP new
Hastings	LIB 1.1%	ALP 0.4%	1.5 to ALP (nominal ALP)
Kalkallo (new seat)	..	ALP 20.4%	ALP new
Keysborough (abolished)	ALP 14.9%	..	ALP loss
Laverton (new seat)	..	ALP 23.6%	ALP new
Mount Waverley (abolished)	ALP 1.8%	..	ALP loss
Pakenham (new seat)	..	ALP 3.0%	ALP new
Ripon	LIB 0.0%	ALP 2.6%	2.6 to ALP (nominal ALP)
Yuroke (abolished)	ALP 20.3%	..	ALP loss

Seats that have changed names:
Burwood -----> Ashwood
Gembrook ---> Berwick
Wendoree ---> Eureka
Forest Hill ---> Glen Waverley
Mill Park -----> Morang
Altona -------> Point Cook

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Something for everyone amongst that, except Martin Pakula.


Labor obviously look best on paper. There look to have been some suggestions that Dan's seat get chopped up, so they've avoided that situation at least.

Libs probably lucky it wasn't worse - the electoral geography looked diabolical. Bayswater is my district - Jackson Taylor seems to have been building a decent profile locally and I would've tipped him to hold on against a mild swing. Bayswater-Boronia should be decent enough territory for Labor in an even election, and I think he's based in Wantirna where they'd be traditionally weaker. The Libs should be happy with this little push to help them along.

Greens should have a safer hold on Brunswick and Prahran and begin laying the groundwork to break into Footscray.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The new Victorian state electoral boundaries for the 2022 election have been released.

Full list: https://antonygreen.com.au/draft-victorian-state-electoral-boundaries-released/


* All up Labor has gained a seat from the Libs ( nominally ALP 56, LIB 20, NAT 6, Greens 3, IND 3 ).

* While the uniform swing needed for a Coalition victory in 2022 dips slightly, it remains in double digits at 10.5%.


The seats that have been abolished, created or have nominally switched:

Division	Old Margin	New Margin	Change
Bass	ALP 2.4%	LIB 2.1%	4.5 to LIB (nominal LIB)
Bayswater	ALP 0.4%	LIB 0.9%	1.3 to LIB (nominal LIB)
Ferntree Gully (abolished)	LIB 1.6%	..	LIB loss
Greenvale (new seat)	..	ALP 22.3%	ALP new
Hastings	LIB 1.1%	ALP 0.4%	1.5 to ALP (nominal ALP)
Kalkallo (new seat)	..	ALP 20.4%	ALP new
Keysborough (abolished)	ALP 14.9%	..	ALP loss
Laverton (new seat)	..	ALP 23.6%	ALP new
Mount Waverley (abolished)	ALP 1.8%	..	ALP loss
Pakenham (new seat)	..	ALP 3.0%	ALP new
Ripon	LIB 0.0%	ALP 2.6%	2.6 to ALP (nominal ALP)
Yuroke (abolished)	ALP 20.3%	..	ALP loss

Seats that have changed names:
Burwood -----> Ashwood
Gembrook ---> Berwick
Wendoree ---> Eureka
Forest Hill ---> Glen Waverley
Mill Park -----> Morang
Altona -------> Point Cook

sad to see Mt Waverley go - it was fun helping out with that upset campaign

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Do those, who said Andrews will resign 12 months out from the election, still believe that nonsense?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Do those, who said Andrews will resign 12 months out from the election, still believe that nonsense?

Yep. I said he would walk when covid is essentially done, and were not there yet

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Do those, who said Andrews will resign 12 months out from the election, still believe that nonsense?

He should.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Something for everyone amongst that, except Martin Pakula.


Labor obviously look best on paper. There look to have been some suggestions that Dan's seat get chopped up, so they've avoided that situation at least.

Libs probably lucky it wasn't worse - the electoral geography looked diabolical. Bayswater is my district - Jackson Taylor seems to have been building a decent profile locally and I would've tipped him to hold on against a mild swing. Bayswater-Boronia should be decent enough territory for Labor in an even election, and I think he's based in Wantirna where they'd be traditionally weaker. The Libs should be happy with this little push to help them along.

Greens should have a safer hold on Brunswick and Prahran and begin laying the groundwork to break into Footscray.

This just reflects the bulllshit of this government, what about the rest of the state? ALP only cares for Melbourne. They can GAGF we are sick of it out here.

 

[pazza]

Louise Staley faces an uphill battle to retain Ripon on those figures.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Any safe Liberal seats where the member is retiring for Peta Cretin to walk into?

 

[dusty1234!]

Yep. I said he would walk when covid is essentially done, and were not there yet

We just gotta win Glen Waverley this time

 

[Leeda]

He should.

Daniel has a bit of work to do…or at least explain to his mother?..!,,

 

[Pessimistic]

This just reflects the bulllshit of this government, what about the rest of the state? ALP only cares for Melbourne. They can GAGF we are sick of it out here.

Tell that to the govts employees who got moved to Ballarat, the. Incidentally spent months working from home anyway

 

[Saint]

Something for everyone amongst that, except Martin Pakula.


Labor obviously look best on paper. There look to have been some suggestions that Dan's seat get chopped up, so they've avoided that situation at least.

Libs probably lucky it wasn't worse - the electoral geography looked diabolical. Bayswater is my district - Jackson Taylor seems to have been building a decent profile locally and I would've tipped him to hold on against a mild swing. Bayswater-Boronia should be decent enough territory for Labor in an even election, and I think he's based in Wantirna where they'd be traditionally weaker. The Libs should be happy with this little push to help them along.

Greens should have a safer hold on Brunswick and Prahran and begin laying the groundwork to break into Footscray.

If Ferntree Gully is abolished, I'm guessing that's where the Bayswater nominal shift is supposed to come from, the bible thumpers from Wantirna. But I reckon Taylor as a copper will have a chance against the Lib MP (Nick Wakeling) there who has kept a seat warm for a few terms without achieving anything. Probably not, but he'd be able to give it a good go.

 

[pazza]

Any safe Liberal seats where the member is retiring for Peta Cretin to walk into?

Upper House.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Any safe Liberal seats where the member is retiring for Peta Cretin to walk into?

Liked for Peta Cretin reference.

 

[Messenger]

I doubt Credlin would run in state politics. Too much like hard work and I'm sure she would be interested in a much broader canvas.

Federally she could look at Tony Smith's seat (Casey). I would have great pleasure putting her last on the ballot paper.

 

[Gough]

I doubt Credlin would run in state politics. Too much like hard work and I'm sure she would be interested in a much broader canvas.

Federally she could look at Tony Smith's seat (Casey). I would have great pleasure putting her last on the ballot paper.

Despite having a Victorian stamp on her passport I'm not sure she'd be seen as anything but hard right blow in, imposed from above which in Victoria I don't think would go down at all well right now.

 

[Jascave]

If the lockdowns continue as they are now, looks like Labor could be in some strife. They may well be forced into minority government or it could be a hung parliament result. Keep a close watch on Daniel Andrews's seat on election night, as well as Martin Foley. And it'll be interesting to see if Jenny Mikakos can be returned to her Upper House seat next year.

 

[Golden_6]

Despite thinking Andrews is a flog, he’s still a considerably better option than O’Brien or whatever the Vic libs could throw forward right now. We’ll see if that’s still the case come election time.

 

[The Punter]

I doubt Credlin would run in state politics. Too much like hard work and I'm sure she would be interested in a much broader canvas.

Federally she could look at Tony Smith's seat (Casey). I would have great pleasure putting her last on the ballot paper.

Nominations have already closed for Liberal endorsement in Casey and, rather unsurprisingly, Peta Credlin did not nominate.

I strongly believe her name will never be on a ballot.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Nominations have already closed for Liberal endorsement in Casey and, rather unsurprisingly, Peta Credlin did not nominate.

I strongly believe her name will never be on a ballot.

i spelt out the issues for her ages ago

- Mildura: contesting with the Nats, not a great start if you want a coalition

- metro safe seats: few left after 2018, and no signs of anyone being prepared to walk for her to be parachuted in

if she was going to run, IMO she should target a seat lost in 2018 to "bring it back". Good for party, moral, and PR. its a risk however, and history shows candidates like Credlin (regardless of party) usually only give up their cushy lifestyle if they are gifted a safe seat (remember the sooking Kernot did when she got stiffed with Dickson)

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I strongly believe her name will never be on a ballot.

I bloody well hope not. She'd bring down the standard of any parliament anywhere.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Nominations have already closed for Liberal endorsement in Casey and, rather unsurprisingly, Peta Credlin did not nominate.

I strongly believe her name will never be on a ballot.

She's happy to hurl s**t from the cheap seats of Sky Propaganda News but too gutless to run.

Big shock.

 

[Gough]

She's happy to hurl sh*t from the cheap seats of Sky Propaganda News but too gutless to run.

Big shock.

I always thought the whole Credlin in Parliament business was never much more than a masturbatory fantasy from the IPA fanboi wing of the Vic Libs.

 

[campbell]

She's happy to hurl sh*t from the cheap seats of Sky Propaganda News but too gutless to run.

Big shock.

She is worth more in the media than on the ground for the Libs.