Vic Victorian Election 2022

[Ned_Flanders]

11 months to go to the election and still Andrews hasn't resigned and handed over the Leadership to the next in line

You know like we were told would happen 12 months out from the election

Handovers normally happen closer to the election. Close enough that they don't get the blame for s**t, far enough out that they get name recognition.

Covid is a spoiler, because ideally you want it done before the transition (you don't want the new leader copping blame for covid)

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Handovers normally happen closer to the election. Close enough that they don't get the blame for sh*t, far enough out that they get name recognition.

Covid is a spoiler, because ideally you want it done before the transition (you don't want the new leader copping blame for covid)

Weren't you one of those saying Andrews would quit 12 months out from the election?

 

[Millky95]

Weren't you one of those saying Andrews would quit 12 months out from the election?

I was. But I also didn't predict a new wave that'd be bigger than the one last year. Still think he will change but I got the timing wrong

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Weren't you one of those saying Andrews would quit 12 months out from the election?

I said he would be the last man out once covid is done. Unfortunately covid aint done

The covid thing is critical, because why would Merlino want to be known as the Omicron premier?

The same issue is at play for the feds. There is no point toppling scomo now, because you end up being tainted with covid too. If Dutton is smart, he will do it as close to the election date as possible.

Back to Andrews, nothing has changed. This premiership is still defined (fairly or unfairly) by covid, and making Nov a covid referendum is the libs only chance of victory (and him leading allows that to happen). Add to that he looks 100 years old now.

 

[Hojuman]

Just waiting for numbers to jump over N'Years and Matthew Guy to call for a snap 7 day lockdown.

 

[Kwality]

Cesar is an interesting one, I know anti-Labor types who think he's a good guy.
I suspect he probably ends up in local council. Seems a career-type

Suggestion Cesar will continue the consultancy gig that he has been building for a few years, minus the parliamentary salary & perks of an elected member.

Has he been a part time consultant or MP ?

No loss.

edit: no, I'm not suggesting CM is unique.

 

[Jascave]

If you're looking for someone to blame for the Victorian Liberals being where they are at the moment, and why Matthew Guy (and his predecessor Michael O'Brien) couldn't take the fight up to Daniel Andrews, two names stand out: Michael Kroger, and Peter Costello. The Victorian Liberals are still suffering from the Kroger-Costello partnership blowing up big time back in 2012, when Kroger went on Melbourne radio and completely took Costello apart in two interviews with Jon Faine on ABC radio, and Neil Mitchell on 3AW.

 

[Ticky009]

Some stats coming out of the 2022 election

 

[Ticky009]

and part 2

 

[Hank Scorpion]

and part 2

Covid-conscious voters giving Labor better marks?

And maybe against the narrative, the ALP did relatively worse with younger/on-the-day voters than last time? (It's just that they already dominate this cohort so heavily, any % share lost here is cancelled out by the overall demographic turnover as silents/Boomers die-off)