Due to popular demand, I have decided to prepare one last Match Preview for 2009. Though there is no Collingwood, the Grand Final is between the 2 best and most deserving teams of the 2009 H&A season and should be a cracking game.
Strangely, the build up seems a little bit flat this week. Perhaps because there has been no DaVe86 match preview. Hopefully this sparks things up a bit.
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Saturday, the 26th of September. The one day on the 2009 calendar that defines an entire year for 44 AFL footballers. And Football fans will be treated to a classic. St.Kilda have clearly been the best side of 2009. 19 straight wins was a remarkable effort. But strangely, the Saints will not go in as favourites. At the time of writing this preview, a St.Kilda win will get you $2.40.
The reason is that they will face a red hot Geelong side, playing off in their 3rd Grand Final in a row, and coming off a resounding victory against the Magpies. For the first time all year, the Cats are full strength, and when it matters the most. They have knocked off the Bulldogs and Collingwood in more convincing fashion than the Saints did as well, and will be buoyed by the Brownlow Medal victory to their superstar on-baller Gary Ablett Jnr.
But, St.Kilda have not put a foot wrong all year. They also go into the game fully fit and reasonably fresh from an extra days break. Both sides managed their sides in the 2nd half of the year, and this has paid huge dividends for them as they both look strong.
A huge crowd will pack the MCG on Saturday, on what is being forecast as a wet and cold day, with a top of only 15. I doubt this will have a huge bearing on the result, though I do think that Geelong will ultimately be quite pleased to see some rain. It may help nullify the St.Kilda twin towers and the Cats perhaps have more experience playing in the wet/windy conditions. But on the flip side, the one weakness in the Geelong side is accuracy…so these conditions will not help.
It seems both sides are taking a very measured approach into the finals. Both sides are seemingly ‘playing it cool’ to this point. Both sides held their open training sessions very early in the week and have been very low key. In fact, the hype around this years Grand Final seems a bit less than last years for some strange reason. I’m sure that will all change tomorrow when the Grand Final Parade rolls through Collins St.
We should see a cracking match. Both sides have a lot of pressure on them. If the Cats win, then St.Kilda’s amazing winning streak was all for nothing. If St.Kilda win, then Geelong have blown the chance to be one of the greatest teams in the last few decades. 1 premiership from 3 Grand Final appearances is a good result, but the side will not go down as an all time great. In some respects, it is sad there has to be a loser because each side is equally deserving. But from a neutral fans point of view, it sets the backdrop for what should be one of the best games of football of the century.
The Formline & Recent Meetings.
We got a taste of what’s to come in Round in Round 14. I was at that game and it was an absolute cracker. After a blistering start, the Saints just managed to claw onto victory by a single kick in a frenetic final quarter. The skill level was high, the intensity was high and the crowd were right into it under a closed roof at Etihad. As a neutral supporter, I was even nervous, even though I did not care about the result.
Each side went into this game undefeated. It was built up to be the best indicator as to who would win the flag in 09. So what did we learn from this game??? Absolutely nothing. Despite a slow start, the Cats proved they could score comfortably against the proven St.Kilda defence, whilst the Saints ultimately won the game and made Geelong look second rate in the opening quarter.
Ultimately, Steve Johnson and Brad Ottens did not play in the Round 14 game, so their presence is going to be a boost for the Cats. However, I doubt their presence would’ve stopped the onslaught from the Saints after they kicked 5 of the first 6 goals. In fact, it was a lucky free kick to Ablett that got the Cats going. Without that free kick, I’m not sure the Cats would’ve settled.
The other thing is that I don’t think either side played their full hand. It was no doubt a learning experience for both coaches. Each side were obviously sizing up their opponents. Each side still has a joker up their sleeve you would think. It will ultimately go down as a win to the Saints, but no doubt both sides walked away from that game with a lot of positives, and the eventual winner on Saturday may look back on this game as defining.
History will show that both sides slowed up a fair bit from that game. I think that is because they had each proved their points and went into finals preparation mode.
But the formline is interesting to read. At the conclusion of Round 21, the Cats looked shot. They went down to the Bulldogs and many thought they were no longer a premiership threat. They were also less than convincing the week after against Fremantle despite a comfortable victory. However, their first half against the Bulldogs in the qualifying final was electric, and they backed up their form against Collingwood in the form of a football lesson. They were too big, too strong, too quick, too talented. They go into the Grand Final in perhaps their richest vein of form since Round 14.
The Saints on the other hand have still not fired on all cylinders since Round 14. Their win against Collingwood in the qualifying final was solid, but they still only managed 12 goals despite having twice the possession. Against the Bulldogs in the prelim, they won with only 9 goals. 21 goals in 2 games is not a convincing result from a side with 2 powerhouse forwards in form. Geelong have kicked 31 finals goals against the same 2 sides.
But, the fact is that St.Kilda’s defence does the job. Geelong has conceded 18 goals to St.Kilda’s 14 in the finals. And you would think that this is going to be another low scoring game, which could suit St.Kilda given that in the final quarter, their big forwards should stand up.
That’s how the Saints have done it to this point. Even though the Dogs were playing better football, the Saints were always in the game on the scoreboard. Then in the final quarter, when defenders tire, Riewoldt and Kosi look unstoppable. Geelong don’t boast the same powerhouse tall forwards to take the winning mark in the last. But then again, the St.Kilda defence is well equipped to take on the talls, and looked most exposed by midfield run against the Dogs.
Going back to Round 14, Lenny Hayes was a standout with 33 disposals. However it was Michael Gardiner who polled the 3 votes in the Brownlow, bolstered by his heroic final mark and winning goal. Bartel polled the 2 votes with 37 possessions and Riewoldt polled the 1 with his 3 goals. Chapman would feel robbed after he had 39 possessions, 10 marks and a goal.
It was a very high possession game. All the major ball winners got stacks of it. I don’t think this will be the case in the finals. I think the Saints will look to clamp down on the Geelong midfield and make it more scrappy.
Strategy
There are pro’s and con’s to each sides game-plan.
Firstly the Saints:
The Saints will know that the best way to beat Geelong is to pressure and tackle. The Cats are drilled to take risks. They generate their run off half back and run in waves. They back their footskills, and they also back their team-mates even if they are in trouble. Geelong look most vulnerable when their opposition forwards are putting pressure on.
The Saints are the best tackling side in the comp and will almost dare the Cats to fiddle around and over-possess. Guys like Hayes, Ball and Jones will not let many tackles slip.
Though the Cats have a quality defence, it can be exposed by 2 gun forwards. Franklin and Roughead has exposed them on numerous occasions. Riewodlt and Koschitzke will equally worry them. Taylor is a great player, but he is not elite just yet. He can be exploited and will be no match for Riewoldt on a lead or in a marking contest.
The Saints would fancy themselves to shut down Hawkins and Mooney completely.
I also think the Saints will throw a number back early. Perhaps trying to free up Fisher or Gilbert. Fisher has been a ball magnet in the finals and is at his best in this role. The Saints like choking a game up early. Often, they give their opponents a chance early in a game, but simply wear them out through the numbers they get behind the ball. They did this against both Collingwood and the Bulldogs…each who got off to a flying start but could not capitalise on the scoreboard. I think the Saints will try and strangle the game early and perhaps take out some of the intensity. A high paced game will probably suit Geelong.
Onto the Cats:
The Cats will have taken a lot out of the Bulldogs game. I went to the St.Kilda v Bulldogs Preliminary final and noticed how the Dogs really vacated the goal-square. They tried to generate run through the midfield, get the ball into the hands of Higgins or Gilbee and kick over the St.Kilda flood. It worked early, and could’ve worked on numerous other occasions had they have kicked straight. Geelong play a similar running game, so could employ this strategy. I’d be getting Hawkins and Mooney to lead well up the ground because they are probably going to get swamped in the forward line.
Try and draw Dawson and Fisher away from goal, then get the ball in the hands of Chapman who is a brilliant shot from outside 50 and try to kick to a vacant goal-square. Just like what the Dogs did.
Clearances will be the number 1 priority for the Cats as well. They were dominant against Collingwood last week, but face a tougher outfit this week. However, the Saints were beaten in this area last week by the Bulldogs, and the Cats will believe that if they get first hands on the ball that they can generate their running game.
Yes St.Kilda are a great tackling side, but I think the Cats will still back in their high risk style of rebounding out of defence. Zones have never worried Geelong. They were the one side last year who were able to waltz through the Hawthorn zone. But this is heavily reliant on generating run out of defence. As the Saints press their oppositions, if you can run through the defence then it opens up down the field.
I also think it was an interesting tactic of Dale Morris to play 5 metres ahead of Riewoldt. It worked in the first quarter, but after this the Saints simply kicked it over their head. However, with a guy like Harley to zone off his man, this tactic could be worthwhile against the Saints again this week.
I would also start Ablett up forward for the first 2 minutes. Half perhaps to protect him, but also to try and sneak in a cheap goal. All eyes will be on the Brownlow medallist and I think Ablett going forward could worry the Saints defence.
I also think that Geelong won’t mind too much if the Saints get a loose man in defence. I think the Cats would be more than happy to get Milburn or Harley loose to try and cut off Riewoldt. If it’s not working, they can change. But if the Saints play defensive and as a result fail to score, like they have in the last 2 weeks, then Geelong will probably be happy to keep the status quo. I do however think that the Saints will try and stop Fisher and may put a forward tag on him. They used Rooke to do this role last week on Shaw.
At the Selection Table
The focus goes onto Max Hudghton and whether the Saints allow him to play in a fairytale final game in the Grand Final. I don’t think it will happen. Though I think it should, Dawson has done enough to hold his spot and is adding versatility to their constantly rotating defence.
The bigger question for me is over Eddy. I think Dempster should come back because he is the only matchup for Steve Johnson.
My 1 change for the Saints:
In: Dempster
Out: Eddy
B: Baker, Dawson, Blake
HB: Gram, Fisher, Gilbert
C: Gram, Hayes, Dal Santo
HF: Ray, Riewoldt, Montagna
FF: Schneider, Koschitzke, Milne
R: Gardiner, Ball, Jones
I: King, Dempster, Clarke, McQualter
The Cats major selection teaser is Stokes. Thompson has already said he deserves his spot. Whether he gets selected is another story because it’s hard to find anyone that lost their position in the preliminary. I think 1 of Byrnes or Stokes is necessary, and Byrnes has seemingly done enough.
Therefore no change:
B: Milburn, Scarlett, Enright
HB: Harley, Taylor, Mackie
C: Ling, Bartel, Wojinski
HF: Chapman, Mooney, Johnson
F: Byrnes, Hawkins, Ottens
R: Blake, Ablett, Selwood
I: Corey, Kelly, Varcoe, Rooke
Matchups
I think it will more be St.Kilda players manning up Geelong players than the other way around.
Saints Forward Line:
Riewoldt v Taylor: Though it is a really worrying matchup, Taylor has always held his own against Riewoldt. The other left-field option could be Mackie on Riewoldt. Mackie played on Franklin earlier in the year and was good…although the Cats were down in defence and had no other options. Taylor could well be the most important player on the field for Geelong on Saturday. Though early on in his football career, stopping Riewoldt is the key. If he kicks 5 goals in a low scoring game, it will probably be the Saints holding the cup.
Kosi v Scarlett – Will be a great 1 on 1 battle. Kosi has height, but Scarlett can match him strength-wise. Kosi will no doubt push up the field to take Scarlett away from the action. No doubt Scarlett will try and help out on Riewoldt as well. Another critical matchup. You can’t allow Riewoldt and Kosi to kick 8-10 goals between them.
Milne v Enright – The All Australia back pocket will have his hands full with Stevie Milne. Enright has been a high possession winner, so will no doubt look to attack Milne. But Milne is the sort of player who can be having a quiet day and still bob up and kick a few late ones to win the game.
Schneider v Milburn – Milburn may be coming to the end of his career, but he has been in great finals form. He wins so much of the ball and is usually very helpful in defence. He may have to go onto Schneider, who carried Grand Final experience also, and shut him down.
Midfield:
Ling v Dal Santo – The 1 tag the Cats will put is Ling onto Dal Santo, like they do every time. You simply have to stop Dal Santo as the number 1 priority when playing the Saints. He is the most taggable, but also the most damaging, so as a first rule I think you have to shut out this guy and work the rest out from there.
Jones v Ablett – I think they will give the big job to Jones. He played on Ablett in Round 14 and was quite good. Even managed to kick a few goals himself. It may be an idea to drag Jones up forward and exploit him here. But Ablett should have the pace and skill to still win a lot of the ball.
Selwood v Hayes – I’m thinking head to head. Could be a real cracker. Hayes polled very well in the brownlow, and it was just recognition for a fine season. He has had a cracking finals series, and if I were Bomber Thompson, I’d be telling Selwood to be very cautious of Hayes.
Kelly v Montagna – I would use Kelly defensively on Montagna. Joey may have a bit too much pace. But I think if you can take out Montagna and Dal Santo, then you eliminate the real polish out of the Saints defence. Hayes and Ball are not goal kickers, so you would prefer to go head to head on them.
Bartel v McQualter – I think they will tag Bartel. Jimmy was in flying form last week. It hasn’t been Bartel’s best year of all time, but he has been solid and has hit form in the big matches. This will be no exception. So I think McQualter will play tight on him. May be exploited overhead. Bartel was left to run free in Round 14 and he was very damaging.
Corey v Goddard – Could be another head to head battle. Corey is the hard running, high possession midfielder, whilst Goddard is the class. I think early Lyon will use Goddard defensively and look to move him into the midfield as the game wears on. I think Lyon would prefer to go with Ball, Hayes and Montagna in the opening bounces early on.
Geelong Forward Line
Hawkins v Dawson – Dawson gets a lot of assistance, but will hold his spot. He’ll also go onto Hawkins. Hawkins may fancy himself 1 out with Dawson, but it won’t happen often.
Mooney v Fisher – The Saints may use Blake in this role, but I think Fisher will be Plan A and he will look to run off Mooney.
Baker v Stokes/Byrnes – If Stokes does not play, he should go onto Byrnes and shut him out of the game. Guys like Byrnes or Stokes have a habit of kicking goals in Grand Finals as they sneak under teams guards. The Saints will be trying to keep this low scoring, so can’t afford a few cheapies.
Chapman V Gilbert – Could be a crunch one for the Saints. Chapman is an out and out star and is so damaging. Gilbert may get responsibility when Chapman plays forward. Chapman is my tip for the Norm Smith Medal.
Ottens v Blake – No doubt Ottens will spend a lot of time forward and will probably have to deal with Blake when he does. Should be an even battle, with Ottens perhaps a bit more strength but not as much match fitness.
Eddy/Dempster v Johnson – This is the tough one for the Saints. I personally would be bringing in Dempster to play this role as he is much tighter checking and has played in the Sydney side that won the premiership. Otherwise Eddy gets the job. Could also go to Raph Clarke but I wouldn’t trust it.
Ruck:
Gardiner/King v Blake/Ottens – I think the Saints would feel they have the edge here. King obviously won a premiership with Geelong so has experience, whilst Ottens has also held the cup. Blake played in the losing GF last year, whilst Gardiner will be hoping to reward the Saints for the faith they showed in him. Blake will be important because he is the best technical tap ruckman of the pack, but he may be intimidated by the size of King and Gardiner. How fit Ottens is will be important. He has looked OK in recent weeks.
The Wrap Up
Well I’m pumped. Can’t wait to watch it on Saturday. A long, boring summer awaits without footy, but season 2009 should go out with a bang.
I think the Cats in a close one by 7 points.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86.
Strangely, the build up seems a little bit flat this week. Perhaps because there has been no DaVe86 match preview. Hopefully this sparks things up a bit.
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Saturday, the 26th of September. The one day on the 2009 calendar that defines an entire year for 44 AFL footballers. And Football fans will be treated to a classic. St.Kilda have clearly been the best side of 2009. 19 straight wins was a remarkable effort. But strangely, the Saints will not go in as favourites. At the time of writing this preview, a St.Kilda win will get you $2.40.
The reason is that they will face a red hot Geelong side, playing off in their 3rd Grand Final in a row, and coming off a resounding victory against the Magpies. For the first time all year, the Cats are full strength, and when it matters the most. They have knocked off the Bulldogs and Collingwood in more convincing fashion than the Saints did as well, and will be buoyed by the Brownlow Medal victory to their superstar on-baller Gary Ablett Jnr.
But, St.Kilda have not put a foot wrong all year. They also go into the game fully fit and reasonably fresh from an extra days break. Both sides managed their sides in the 2nd half of the year, and this has paid huge dividends for them as they both look strong.
A huge crowd will pack the MCG on Saturday, on what is being forecast as a wet and cold day, with a top of only 15. I doubt this will have a huge bearing on the result, though I do think that Geelong will ultimately be quite pleased to see some rain. It may help nullify the St.Kilda twin towers and the Cats perhaps have more experience playing in the wet/windy conditions. But on the flip side, the one weakness in the Geelong side is accuracy…so these conditions will not help.
It seems both sides are taking a very measured approach into the finals. Both sides are seemingly ‘playing it cool’ to this point. Both sides held their open training sessions very early in the week and have been very low key. In fact, the hype around this years Grand Final seems a bit less than last years for some strange reason. I’m sure that will all change tomorrow when the Grand Final Parade rolls through Collins St.
We should see a cracking match. Both sides have a lot of pressure on them. If the Cats win, then St.Kilda’s amazing winning streak was all for nothing. If St.Kilda win, then Geelong have blown the chance to be one of the greatest teams in the last few decades. 1 premiership from 3 Grand Final appearances is a good result, but the side will not go down as an all time great. In some respects, it is sad there has to be a loser because each side is equally deserving. But from a neutral fans point of view, it sets the backdrop for what should be one of the best games of football of the century.
The Formline & Recent Meetings.
We got a taste of what’s to come in Round in Round 14. I was at that game and it was an absolute cracker. After a blistering start, the Saints just managed to claw onto victory by a single kick in a frenetic final quarter. The skill level was high, the intensity was high and the crowd were right into it under a closed roof at Etihad. As a neutral supporter, I was even nervous, even though I did not care about the result.
Each side went into this game undefeated. It was built up to be the best indicator as to who would win the flag in 09. So what did we learn from this game??? Absolutely nothing. Despite a slow start, the Cats proved they could score comfortably against the proven St.Kilda defence, whilst the Saints ultimately won the game and made Geelong look second rate in the opening quarter.
Ultimately, Steve Johnson and Brad Ottens did not play in the Round 14 game, so their presence is going to be a boost for the Cats. However, I doubt their presence would’ve stopped the onslaught from the Saints after they kicked 5 of the first 6 goals. In fact, it was a lucky free kick to Ablett that got the Cats going. Without that free kick, I’m not sure the Cats would’ve settled.
The other thing is that I don’t think either side played their full hand. It was no doubt a learning experience for both coaches. Each side were obviously sizing up their opponents. Each side still has a joker up their sleeve you would think. It will ultimately go down as a win to the Saints, but no doubt both sides walked away from that game with a lot of positives, and the eventual winner on Saturday may look back on this game as defining.
History will show that both sides slowed up a fair bit from that game. I think that is because they had each proved their points and went into finals preparation mode.
But the formline is interesting to read. At the conclusion of Round 21, the Cats looked shot. They went down to the Bulldogs and many thought they were no longer a premiership threat. They were also less than convincing the week after against Fremantle despite a comfortable victory. However, their first half against the Bulldogs in the qualifying final was electric, and they backed up their form against Collingwood in the form of a football lesson. They were too big, too strong, too quick, too talented. They go into the Grand Final in perhaps their richest vein of form since Round 14.
The Saints on the other hand have still not fired on all cylinders since Round 14. Their win against Collingwood in the qualifying final was solid, but they still only managed 12 goals despite having twice the possession. Against the Bulldogs in the prelim, they won with only 9 goals. 21 goals in 2 games is not a convincing result from a side with 2 powerhouse forwards in form. Geelong have kicked 31 finals goals against the same 2 sides.
But, the fact is that St.Kilda’s defence does the job. Geelong has conceded 18 goals to St.Kilda’s 14 in the finals. And you would think that this is going to be another low scoring game, which could suit St.Kilda given that in the final quarter, their big forwards should stand up.
That’s how the Saints have done it to this point. Even though the Dogs were playing better football, the Saints were always in the game on the scoreboard. Then in the final quarter, when defenders tire, Riewoldt and Kosi look unstoppable. Geelong don’t boast the same powerhouse tall forwards to take the winning mark in the last. But then again, the St.Kilda defence is well equipped to take on the talls, and looked most exposed by midfield run against the Dogs.
Going back to Round 14, Lenny Hayes was a standout with 33 disposals. However it was Michael Gardiner who polled the 3 votes in the Brownlow, bolstered by his heroic final mark and winning goal. Bartel polled the 2 votes with 37 possessions and Riewoldt polled the 1 with his 3 goals. Chapman would feel robbed after he had 39 possessions, 10 marks and a goal.
It was a very high possession game. All the major ball winners got stacks of it. I don’t think this will be the case in the finals. I think the Saints will look to clamp down on the Geelong midfield and make it more scrappy.
Strategy
There are pro’s and con’s to each sides game-plan.
Firstly the Saints:
The Saints will know that the best way to beat Geelong is to pressure and tackle. The Cats are drilled to take risks. They generate their run off half back and run in waves. They back their footskills, and they also back their team-mates even if they are in trouble. Geelong look most vulnerable when their opposition forwards are putting pressure on.
The Saints are the best tackling side in the comp and will almost dare the Cats to fiddle around and over-possess. Guys like Hayes, Ball and Jones will not let many tackles slip.
Though the Cats have a quality defence, it can be exposed by 2 gun forwards. Franklin and Roughead has exposed them on numerous occasions. Riewodlt and Koschitzke will equally worry them. Taylor is a great player, but he is not elite just yet. He can be exploited and will be no match for Riewoldt on a lead or in a marking contest.
The Saints would fancy themselves to shut down Hawkins and Mooney completely.
I also think the Saints will throw a number back early. Perhaps trying to free up Fisher or Gilbert. Fisher has been a ball magnet in the finals and is at his best in this role. The Saints like choking a game up early. Often, they give their opponents a chance early in a game, but simply wear them out through the numbers they get behind the ball. They did this against both Collingwood and the Bulldogs…each who got off to a flying start but could not capitalise on the scoreboard. I think the Saints will try and strangle the game early and perhaps take out some of the intensity. A high paced game will probably suit Geelong.
Onto the Cats:
The Cats will have taken a lot out of the Bulldogs game. I went to the St.Kilda v Bulldogs Preliminary final and noticed how the Dogs really vacated the goal-square. They tried to generate run through the midfield, get the ball into the hands of Higgins or Gilbee and kick over the St.Kilda flood. It worked early, and could’ve worked on numerous other occasions had they have kicked straight. Geelong play a similar running game, so could employ this strategy. I’d be getting Hawkins and Mooney to lead well up the ground because they are probably going to get swamped in the forward line.
Try and draw Dawson and Fisher away from goal, then get the ball in the hands of Chapman who is a brilliant shot from outside 50 and try to kick to a vacant goal-square. Just like what the Dogs did.
Clearances will be the number 1 priority for the Cats as well. They were dominant against Collingwood last week, but face a tougher outfit this week. However, the Saints were beaten in this area last week by the Bulldogs, and the Cats will believe that if they get first hands on the ball that they can generate their running game.
Yes St.Kilda are a great tackling side, but I think the Cats will still back in their high risk style of rebounding out of defence. Zones have never worried Geelong. They were the one side last year who were able to waltz through the Hawthorn zone. But this is heavily reliant on generating run out of defence. As the Saints press their oppositions, if you can run through the defence then it opens up down the field.
I also think it was an interesting tactic of Dale Morris to play 5 metres ahead of Riewoldt. It worked in the first quarter, but after this the Saints simply kicked it over their head. However, with a guy like Harley to zone off his man, this tactic could be worthwhile against the Saints again this week.
I would also start Ablett up forward for the first 2 minutes. Half perhaps to protect him, but also to try and sneak in a cheap goal. All eyes will be on the Brownlow medallist and I think Ablett going forward could worry the Saints defence.
I also think that Geelong won’t mind too much if the Saints get a loose man in defence. I think the Cats would be more than happy to get Milburn or Harley loose to try and cut off Riewoldt. If it’s not working, they can change. But if the Saints play defensive and as a result fail to score, like they have in the last 2 weeks, then Geelong will probably be happy to keep the status quo. I do however think that the Saints will try and stop Fisher and may put a forward tag on him. They used Rooke to do this role last week on Shaw.
At the Selection Table
The focus goes onto Max Hudghton and whether the Saints allow him to play in a fairytale final game in the Grand Final. I don’t think it will happen. Though I think it should, Dawson has done enough to hold his spot and is adding versatility to their constantly rotating defence.
The bigger question for me is over Eddy. I think Dempster should come back because he is the only matchup for Steve Johnson.
My 1 change for the Saints:
In: Dempster
Out: Eddy
B: Baker, Dawson, Blake
HB: Gram, Fisher, Gilbert
C: Gram, Hayes, Dal Santo
HF: Ray, Riewoldt, Montagna
FF: Schneider, Koschitzke, Milne
R: Gardiner, Ball, Jones
I: King, Dempster, Clarke, McQualter
The Cats major selection teaser is Stokes. Thompson has already said he deserves his spot. Whether he gets selected is another story because it’s hard to find anyone that lost their position in the preliminary. I think 1 of Byrnes or Stokes is necessary, and Byrnes has seemingly done enough.
Therefore no change:
B: Milburn, Scarlett, Enright
HB: Harley, Taylor, Mackie
C: Ling, Bartel, Wojinski
HF: Chapman, Mooney, Johnson
F: Byrnes, Hawkins, Ottens
R: Blake, Ablett, Selwood
I: Corey, Kelly, Varcoe, Rooke
Matchups
I think it will more be St.Kilda players manning up Geelong players than the other way around.
Saints Forward Line:
Riewoldt v Taylor: Though it is a really worrying matchup, Taylor has always held his own against Riewoldt. The other left-field option could be Mackie on Riewoldt. Mackie played on Franklin earlier in the year and was good…although the Cats were down in defence and had no other options. Taylor could well be the most important player on the field for Geelong on Saturday. Though early on in his football career, stopping Riewoldt is the key. If he kicks 5 goals in a low scoring game, it will probably be the Saints holding the cup.
Kosi v Scarlett – Will be a great 1 on 1 battle. Kosi has height, but Scarlett can match him strength-wise. Kosi will no doubt push up the field to take Scarlett away from the action. No doubt Scarlett will try and help out on Riewoldt as well. Another critical matchup. You can’t allow Riewoldt and Kosi to kick 8-10 goals between them.
Milne v Enright – The All Australia back pocket will have his hands full with Stevie Milne. Enright has been a high possession winner, so will no doubt look to attack Milne. But Milne is the sort of player who can be having a quiet day and still bob up and kick a few late ones to win the game.
Schneider v Milburn – Milburn may be coming to the end of his career, but he has been in great finals form. He wins so much of the ball and is usually very helpful in defence. He may have to go onto Schneider, who carried Grand Final experience also, and shut him down.
Midfield:
Ling v Dal Santo – The 1 tag the Cats will put is Ling onto Dal Santo, like they do every time. You simply have to stop Dal Santo as the number 1 priority when playing the Saints. He is the most taggable, but also the most damaging, so as a first rule I think you have to shut out this guy and work the rest out from there.
Jones v Ablett – I think they will give the big job to Jones. He played on Ablett in Round 14 and was quite good. Even managed to kick a few goals himself. It may be an idea to drag Jones up forward and exploit him here. But Ablett should have the pace and skill to still win a lot of the ball.
Selwood v Hayes – I’m thinking head to head. Could be a real cracker. Hayes polled very well in the brownlow, and it was just recognition for a fine season. He has had a cracking finals series, and if I were Bomber Thompson, I’d be telling Selwood to be very cautious of Hayes.
Kelly v Montagna – I would use Kelly defensively on Montagna. Joey may have a bit too much pace. But I think if you can take out Montagna and Dal Santo, then you eliminate the real polish out of the Saints defence. Hayes and Ball are not goal kickers, so you would prefer to go head to head on them.
Bartel v McQualter – I think they will tag Bartel. Jimmy was in flying form last week. It hasn’t been Bartel’s best year of all time, but he has been solid and has hit form in the big matches. This will be no exception. So I think McQualter will play tight on him. May be exploited overhead. Bartel was left to run free in Round 14 and he was very damaging.
Corey v Goddard – Could be another head to head battle. Corey is the hard running, high possession midfielder, whilst Goddard is the class. I think early Lyon will use Goddard defensively and look to move him into the midfield as the game wears on. I think Lyon would prefer to go with Ball, Hayes and Montagna in the opening bounces early on.
Geelong Forward Line
Hawkins v Dawson – Dawson gets a lot of assistance, but will hold his spot. He’ll also go onto Hawkins. Hawkins may fancy himself 1 out with Dawson, but it won’t happen often.
Mooney v Fisher – The Saints may use Blake in this role, but I think Fisher will be Plan A and he will look to run off Mooney.
Baker v Stokes/Byrnes – If Stokes does not play, he should go onto Byrnes and shut him out of the game. Guys like Byrnes or Stokes have a habit of kicking goals in Grand Finals as they sneak under teams guards. The Saints will be trying to keep this low scoring, so can’t afford a few cheapies.
Chapman V Gilbert – Could be a crunch one for the Saints. Chapman is an out and out star and is so damaging. Gilbert may get responsibility when Chapman plays forward. Chapman is my tip for the Norm Smith Medal.
Ottens v Blake – No doubt Ottens will spend a lot of time forward and will probably have to deal with Blake when he does. Should be an even battle, with Ottens perhaps a bit more strength but not as much match fitness.
Eddy/Dempster v Johnson – This is the tough one for the Saints. I personally would be bringing in Dempster to play this role as he is much tighter checking and has played in the Sydney side that won the premiership. Otherwise Eddy gets the job. Could also go to Raph Clarke but I wouldn’t trust it.
Ruck:
Gardiner/King v Blake/Ottens – I think the Saints would feel they have the edge here. King obviously won a premiership with Geelong so has experience, whilst Ottens has also held the cup. Blake played in the losing GF last year, whilst Gardiner will be hoping to reward the Saints for the faith they showed in him. Blake will be important because he is the best technical tap ruckman of the pack, but he may be intimidated by the size of King and Gardiner. How fit Ottens is will be important. He has looked OK in recent weeks.
The Wrap Up
Well I’m pumped. Can’t wait to watch it on Saturday. A long, boring summer awaits without footy, but season 2009 should go out with a bang.
I think the Cats in a close one by 7 points.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86.
