List Mgmt. 2016 general list discussion and speculation (cont in Pt.2)

[AM]

How would we get PD, LH and ZS without trading anything from next year?

Just get one of 'em as Wells indicated he would be happy with. Might have been off-the-cuff. Nonetheless deflating.

A difficult time for him as he needs to keep his cards close to his chest. However, the interview wasn't one of Stephen's better efforts in my view.

 

[Turbocat]

Just get one of 'em as Wells indicated he would be happy with. Might have been off-the-cuff. Nonetheless deflating.

A difficult time for him as he needs to keep his cards close to his chest. However, the interview wasn't one of Stephen's better efforts in my view.

I just don't think thats his forte ... to me he was just hosing down the hype... he was not want to fan the flames... Perhaps Hocking should do that part of it.

 

[Lana]

What do you mean by that...? Any other comments you'd like to be forthcoming with.

While the point match up if you do A+B=C, it's not as simple when you consider both future and present picks

When the trade equation is more like A+Ex(B)/(1+r)^t = C

Where the expected value of the future pick is unknown(there is a large range . in addition the difference in draft strength can't be reliably measured. This is still not taking into account the benefit of having earlier access to talent now as opposed to later.

A real person list manager wouldn't take that kind of trade unless the predicted outcomes were heavily in their favour, they weaken an extremely strong draft position for such a questionable benefit in 12 months time.

They'd have to be an outside circumstances for it to go through, Like an guaranteed on trade that passes on that risk to a 3rd party.

Another thing to have in mind is that these draft points don't reflect trade value (as valued by list managers or their expected value in use which are completely different) where made using a line of best fit using wages earned over a specific time period. IMO they undervalue how much of a premium early picks have compared to picks even just 10 spots later, teams wouldn't trade a pick number 1 for picks 13,14 and 15.

What I mean can only explained in a convoluted manner so I'll just shorten it to say that after weighing up the pros and cons of the trade a list manager who received that offer would reject it as it is far from a fair deal even if you could equate the draft values.

 

[Pivo]

I just don't think thats his forte ... to me he was just hosing down the hype... he was not want to fan the flames... Perhaps Hocking should do that part of it.

I had a listen as well and I think it was Wells trying to keep expectations tempered (after all you never know what might happen to even the best laid plans) while also trying to not give too much away.

One can also read too much into things, especially at this time of the year.

Did Wells happen to forget about Simpson or is Dawson really not in their plans next year?

Does Hutchinson know of some other player we're into that wasn't mentioned causing the '5' slip of the tongue or can Hutchy simply not count?

Was Terry Wallace quieter for a period because he was on the sunbed?

 

[Turbocat]

While the point match up if you do A+B=C, it's not as simple when you consider both future and present picks

When the trade equation is more like A+Ex(B)/(1+r)^t = C

Where the expected value of the future pick is unknown(there is a large range . in addition the difference in draft strength can't be reliably measured. This is still not taking into account the benefit of having earlier access to talent now as opposed to later.

A real person list manager wouldn't take that kind of trade unless the predicted outcomes were heavily in their favour, they weaken an extremely strong draft position for such a questionable benefit in 12 months time.

They'd have to be an outside circumstances for it to go through, Like an guaranteed on trade that passes on that risk to a 3rd party.

Another thing to have in mind is that these draft points don't reflect trade value (as valued by list managers or their expected value in use which are completely different) where made using a line of best fit using wages earned over a specific time period. IMO they undervalue how much of a premium early picks have compared to picks even just 10 spots later, teams wouldn't trade a pick number 1 for picks 13,14 and 15.

What I mean can only explained in a convoluted manner so I'll just shorten it to say that after weighing up the pros and cons of the trade a list manager who received that offer would reject it as it is far from a fair deal even if you could equate the draft values.

I can not dispute what you say...but to me its not much different to the example trade put out in the DVI pdf file. As yet we have not seen any FutPicks traded..so when that happens maybe I'll be able to reign in what I post from something far less AI to something a little more based in reality

 

[Daniel McL]

While the point match up if you do A+B=C, it's not as simple when you consider both future and present picks

When the trade equation is more like A+Ex(B)/(1+r)^t = C

Where the expected value of the future pick is unknown(there is a large range . in addition the difference in draft strength can't be reliably measured. This is still not taking into account the benefit of having earlier access to talent now as opposed to later.

A real person list manager wouldn't take that kind of trade unless the predicted outcomes were heavily in their favour, they weaken an extremely strong draft position for such a questionable benefit in 12 months time.

They'd have to be an outside circumstances for it to go through, Like an guaranteed on trade that passes on that risk to a 3rd party.

Another thing to have in mind is that these draft points don't reflect trade value (as valued by list managers or their expected value in use which are completely different) where made using a line of best fit using wages earned over a specific time period. IMO they undervalue how much of a premium early picks have compared to picks even just 10 spots later, teams wouldn't trade a pick number 1 for picks 13,14 and 15.

What I mean can only explained in a convoluted manner so I'll just shorten it to say that after weighing up the pros and cons of the trade a list manager who received that offer would reject it as it is far from a fair deal even if you could equate the draft values.

...
..
.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Just get one of 'em as Wells indicated he would be happy with. Might have been off-the-cuff. Nonetheless deflating.

A difficult time for him as he needs to keep his cards close to his chest. However, the interview wasn't one of Stephen's better efforts in my view.

Imagine if we walked away from this off-season with our biggest recruit being Zac Smith. Can't imagine too many people being happy with that.

 

[Lana]

I can not dispute what you say...but to me its not much different to the example trade put out in the DVI pdf file. As yet we have not seen any FutPicks traded..so when that happens maybe I'll be able to reign in what I post from something far less AI to something a little more based in reality

It only counts if it includes a downgrade of a top five pick to another pick that at the latest is in the early early teens. If you've played any of the AFL management games that have been made they all seem to have a computer that loves giving up a first round pick and a late pick for a higher pick you'd turn a late first round pick to pick 1 in 3 to 5 trades.

Pick 18 + 4th rounder for pick 15
pick 15 + 3rd rounder for pick 11
pick 11 + 2nd rounder for pick 7
pick 7 + a player you picked up last year in the PSD for pick 3
pick 3 + another player you picked up last year in the PSD for pick 1
etc

 

[Lana]

...
..
.
View attachment 180971

Its good to see that I'm not the only one excited by equations

 

[Bobby_]

Imagine if we walked away from this off-season with our biggest recruit being Zac Smith. Can't imagine too many people being happy with that.

oh they'll be happy alright.
Just don't speak to those same posters away from this website is all.

 

[catempire]

Imagine if we walked away from this off-season with our biggest recruit being Zac Smith. Can't imagine too many people being happy with that.

oh they'll be happy alright.
Just don't speak to those same posters away from this website is all.

I can think of at least two who would be. Not naming names.

 

[zb14]

I'll go get mine too, in case yours doesn't fit it all in

I certainly think there's two broad ways of approaching the acquisition of Danger - either paying big money and saving our picks, or sticking to our pay structure and having to trade. The latter approach, which Scott hints at in the quote you posted, would certainly make it more possible to continue to bring FAs in, after this year.

Agree. I think it is imperative we retain our salary structure. If that costs us a bit extra at the trade table I'm comfortable with that and consider it a positive trade-off.

Though how much money are they actually going to have, if on top of Danger they bring in blokes like Henderson and Selwood who would probably demand $350-$450K. Selwood's not worth more than $300k in his current state, but that won't produce the compensation the Eagles are after.

Yep, realistically you'd have to expect both Selwood and Henderson would be in the circa 400-450 range. Just how much capacity would that leave us in 2016? It's a hard question to answer. One positive is that we now have a fair chunk of our list tied up to 2017 or 18. So that gives us a fair bit of cap certainty for that period. But then there are the variables like whether we have been/will frontload major deals like Selwood, Taylor, Hawkins and Danger. Plus the great unknown of what the new CBA will mean for the salary cap.

 

[rooie]

how will the lack of sub and lower rotations impact our ruck choices folks?
Could be a good strategy to be going with runners instead of mammoths.

 

[Son_Of_God29]

Given our need to fill List Spots would we be interested in Sam Dwyer as a delisted free agent

 

[dazbroncos]

Port need salary cap relief next year so they may listen to offers if they are good

thing is we just don't have the powder left to satisfy them for Lobbe with PD, Sel, Hendo and Smith. And I feel the value of Lobbe would be more than Smith.
You could say that Selwood would be better left alone but if his only cost is SC $$ then it's still worth it.

That leaves Hendo. Do you take the Hendo trace value ( whatever that is) and tryout roll it into an offer for Lobbe? Cant see it being enough given he is under contract….

Go Catters

 

[00VicWard001]

I dont think Wells is in his natural habitat talking trades... sound too nice. Id Smith is our Bullseye but we have to see how the other trades pan out.

He is incredibly careful about what he says, because he knows that every other recruiter is listening and interpreting AND he knows that players are listening too.

 

[Tackle_happy]

how will the lack of sub and lower rotations impact our ruck choices folks?
Could be a good strategy to be going with runners instead of mammoths.

If we went with Smith then ...

Smith as 1st Ruck and Stanley/Clark as secondaries (depending on the other ruckman). Blicavs left to be a mid/wingman.

 

[dazbroncos]

While the point match up if you do A+B=C, it's not as simple when you consider both future and present picks

When the trade equation is more like A+Ex(B)/(1+r)^t = C

Where the expected value of the future pick is unknown(there is a large range . in addition the difference in draft strength can't be reliably measured. This is still not taking into account the benefit of having earlier access to talent now as opposed to later.

A real person list manager wouldn't take that kind of trade unless the predicted outcomes were heavily in their favour, they weaken an extremely strong draft position for such a questionable benefit in 12 months time.

They'd have to be an outside circumstances for it to go through, Like an guaranteed on trade that passes on that risk to a 3rd party.

Another thing to have in mind is that these draft points don't reflect trade value (as valued by list managers or their expected value in use which are completely different) where made using a line of best fit using wages earned over a specific time period. IMO they undervalue how much of a premium early picks have compared to picks even just 10 spots later, teams wouldn't trade a pick number 1 for picks 13,14 and 15.

What I mean can only explained in a convoluted manner so I'll just shorten it to say that after weighing up the pros and cons of the trade a list manager who received that offer would reject it as it is far from a fair deal even if you could equate the draft values.

Your computer has a virus….

GO Catters

 

[00VicWard001]

Definitely have another listen to the Wells interview. Let us know whether you think differently.

You could be right with LH but I think Wells will get Carlton 2nd round draft pick if that's the case. He stated Walker is a required player for us.

I felt that he said that to ensure that Walker didn't feel like an expendable player. He danced around that carefully. He also said that sometimes players seek opportunities elsewhere, and that was in direct reference to Walker going to Carlton.

 

[Lana]

Your computer has a virus….

GO Catters

What you've quoted wasn't in my post maybe it is your computer that is infected. For five easy payments of 39.95 + postage and handling you too can have you computer running fast and virus free.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Its good to see that I'm not the only one excited by equations

I'm still plugging numbers into your equation to make sure it holds true for n+1. Am finding it difficult, considering you didn't put an "n" in the equation to start with.

Sigh. Looks like I've wasted years doing those proofs. They all had "n" in them.

 

[catman2006]

What about a late pick for Talia from doggies yeah he stuffed up by the sounds of it, but could be worth a cheeky punt

 

[catempire]

What about a late pick for Talia from doggies yeah he stuffed up by the sounds of it, but could be worth a cheeky punt

Couldn't get a game behind Hamling. 'nuff said.

 

[Bangers and Mash]

What about a late pick for Talia from doggies yeah he stuffed up by the sounds of it, but could be worth a cheeky punt

Wouldn't want someone of his character around the club. No.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Couldn't get a game behind Hamling. 'nuff said.

Not to mention he's the alleged leak of info. If that's even remotely true. Steer clear.