Preview The ultimate test: Round 5 Adelaide @ Hawthorn - MCG

[Slippery Pete]

I've got a bad feeling about this game...

I was reasonably positive going into the Swans game. I thought we had 3 key factors in our favour:

• Adelaide were clearly in good form.
• We finally had a game plan that would trouble the Swans.
• The game was being played on our home deck.

Only 1 of those factors holds true against Hawthorn - we're still in good form.

Right now, Hawthorn are a sleeping giant, just rolling along in cruise control. They're doing enough to win games against the lesser sides, and not wasting one more joule of energy than they have to. However, when a team comes along that has delusions of grandeur, they wake up and squash them like a bug. Take their response to the Weagles as a prime example. It's about maintaining the mental dominance over the rest of the competition - reminding everyone else that they're the King of the Jungle, and making sure that everyone else has the mindset that they're the underdogs.

There is no doubt that Adelaide have a much better game plan this year. It's still not going to trouble the Hawks. Our plan is very similar to the Weagles - no surprise, given where Pyke was working last year. The Hawks have smashed the Weagles in their last 2 encounters. They know how to beat it and they have the personnel to do it.

Unfortunately, I see the "real" Hawthorn turning up this Friday. If that happens, Adelaide will get blown off the park.

My tip: Hawthorn by 40.

Interesting points.

The Eagles seem to do ok against them on the narrower deck where there's less space to defend. On the wide expanses of the MCG their game plan goes to shit.

 

[Rotayjay]

I say, win this and our chance of winning the 2016 flag doubles from 5% to 10%. Beat the Bulldogs at the dome, and it doubles again.

 

[Maddogmetro]

Right now, Hawthorn are a sleeping giant, just rolling along in cruise control.

Am I the only one that doesn't see the last two close games as the hawks out of form and building up to their best? The best have to fall at some time. I have a feeling this year is that year for the Hawks.

Hoping the Crows can prove me right, and pick up a 5 goal win on Friday night!

 

[FR0GGY]

I've got a bad feeling about this game...

I was reasonably positive going into the Swans game. I thought we had 3 key factors in our favour:

• Adelaide were clearly in good form.
• We finally had a game plan that would trouble the Swans.
• The game was being played on our home deck.

Only 1 of those factors holds true against Hawthorn - we're still in good form.

Right now, Hawthorn are a sleeping giant, just rolling along in cruise control. They're doing enough to win games against the lesser sides, and not wasting one more joule of energy than they have to. However, when a team comes along that has delusions of grandeur, they wake up and squash them like a bug. Take their response to the Weagles as a prime example. It's about maintaining the mental dominance over the rest of the competition - reminding everyone else that they're the King of the Jungle, and making sure that everyone else has the mindset that they're the underdogs.

There is no doubt that Adelaide have a much better game plan this year. It's still not going to trouble the Hawks. Our plan is very similar to the Weagles - no surprise, given where Pyke was working last year. The Hawks have smashed the Weagles in their last 2 encounters. They know how to beat it and they have the personnel to do it.

Unfortunately, I see the "real" Hawthorn turning up this Friday. If that happens, Adelaide will get blown off the park.

My tip: Hawthorn by 40.

Thanks wet blanket

 

[StonesThrow]

I've got a bad feeling about this game...

I was reasonably positive going into the Swans game. I thought we had 3 key factors in our favour:

• Adelaide were clearly in good form.
• We finally had a game plan that would trouble the Swans.
• The game was being played on our home deck.

Only 1 of those factors holds true against Hawthorn - we're still in good form.

Right now, Hawthorn are a sleeping giant, just rolling along in cruise control. They're doing enough to win games against the lesser sides, and not wasting one more joule of energy than they have to. However, when a team comes along that has delusions of grandeur, they wake up and squash them like a bug. Take their response to the Weagles as a prime example. It's about maintaining the mental dominance over the rest of the competition - reminding everyone else that they're the King of the Jungle, and making sure that everyone else has the mindset that they're the underdogs.

There is no doubt that Adelaide have a much better game plan this year. It's still not going to trouble the Hawks. Our plan is very similar to the Weagles - no surprise, given where Pyke was working last year. The Hawks have smashed the Weagles in their last 2 encounters. They know how to beat it and they have the personnel to do it.

Unfortunately, I see the "real" Hawthorn turning up this Friday. If that happens, Adelaide will get blown off the park.

My tip: Hawthorn by 40.

Good post. I'm thinking the same thing but with a tighter score line. Add in the fact that the last game was tough. If we get up it will show the state of our fitness.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Is Hodge playing?

 

[Vader]

Sorry for being a wet blanket.

On the positive side, if we find a way to win this game then we'll be confirmed as premiership contenders. There will be huge positives to take away from the game. It's a big IF though...

 

[NikkiNoo]

small milestone this week

50 AFC games for Eddie Betts

Even better is that it is 50 consecutive games for us! and a lazy 127 goals so far. So 3 and half goals a game return isn't too bad.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

All those people saying we need to sit on Mitchell are going to be disappointed. We have shown this year that we will not put time into stopping individual opposition midfielders.

Gray had 37 touches in the Showdown. Ellis had 39 and Cotchin 32 for Richmond. Hannebery 38 on the weekend.

We back our 18 to beat their 18. We are happy for them to have the best player on the field if our overall system is working. We don't try to make it a 17 on 17 contest.

Whether or not that is a good policy can be debated. But don't expect a Liberatore on Paul Kelly style tagging job on Mitchell on Friday night.

 

[Bacon8]

Crouch needs to gut punch Mitchell within the first 15 seconds. Team can divvy up the $1000.

Maybe Jerka can do a Kieran Jack bump on him.

 

[FR0GGY]

Sorry for being a wet blanket.

On the positive side, if we find a way to win this game then we'll be confirmed as premiership contenders. There will be huge positives to take away from the game. It's a big IF though...

Wasn't supposed to be as harsh as it sounded, your points were quite valid.

 

[FR0GGY]

Is Hodge playing?

Would assume so, he played last weekend.

 

[dogs105]

Even better is that it is 50 consecutive games for us! and a lazy 127 goals so far. So 3 and half goals a game return isn't too bad.

2 and a half pretty good too

 

[adelaidecrows]

If the Crows and Hawthorn live up to this years statistical analysis of the way each team plays I expect the Crows to win by 5 goals at least. Crows just have way too many avenues to goal and as Sydney found out, almost impossible to shut down our run. Hawthorn average about 4-5 more possessions per scoring shot than the Crows and score on average 5 goals less a match, making them a very inefficient side going forward. In defence they average holding teams to just 10 points less then we do. Those teams include Western Bulldogs who are a very inefficient scoring side and St Kilda who are a very inefficient scoring side. The West Coast game seems to be a statistical anomaly because every game they have played aside from that one lives up to their statistics. West Coast may have been mentally scarred from the Grand Final.

I'm not saying put your house on Adelaide by any stretch. Adelaide has a long history of going into games like this and not only losing bad playing very badly. I would not be surprised however to see Adelaide run all over the Hawks and win by 5 goals.

 

[Tex200]

All those people saying we need to sit on Mitchell are going to be disappointed. We have shown this year that we will not put time into stopping individual opposition midfielders.

Gray had 37 touches in the Showdown. Ellis had 39 and Cotchin 32 for Richmond. Hannebery 38 on the weekend.

We back our 18 to beat their 18. We are happy for them to have the best player on the field if our overall system is working. We don't try to make it a 17 on 17 contest.

Whether or not that is a good policy can be debated. But don't expect a Liberatore on Paul Kelly style tagging job on Mitchell on Friday night.

The interesting thing about those numbers is that not one of those players hurt us. It's strange and I can't quite put my finger on it.

It's as though we are not so focused on preventing rhem from getting it, as we are applying high pressure once they do.

 

[Vader]

Wasn't supposed to be as harsh as it sounded, your points were quite valid.

Didn't think you were being harsh at all. I knew my post was a "wet blanket". It's just how I see this game panning out.

I was actually quite positive about our prospects against the Swans. I knew we had the firepower to win, if we could turn it into a shootout. We had the game plan to move the ball, rather than having it locked up on the bottom of packs for the entire game (which would suit Sydney better). Against Hawthorn...

 

[Maddogmetro]

The interesting thing about those numbers is that not one of those players hurt us. It's strange and I can't quite put my finger on it.

It's as though we are not so focused on preventing rhem from getting it, as we are applying high pressure once they do.

Exactly right. Number of touches (although impressive on a stat sheet), is not as important as the way you use those touches. If you get 36 touches, but half your touches aren't to the advantage of your team, then you may as well have only had 18.

I see it as similar to points/assists vs turnovers in basketball. Sure, you may have 25 points, but if you have 8 turnovers you may aswell only have 9 points.

Pretty crude analysis, but I think you get my point.

 

[GrommoT]

VB?

Just kidding.

​

 

[TazHawk15]

Must say it's nice to read an opposition board that shows some respect to the Back2Back2Back champs.

That said the Hawks are just going ATM although they fired up to show the WCE who was boss.

I have been very impressed with your boys so far and on form look to me to be very very hard to beat.

My heart says Hawks by a couple of goals but I would not be suprised if you guys roll us.

Hoping for a ripper of a game and no injuries to either team.

 

[Maddogmetro]

Must say it's nice to read an opposition board that shows some respect to the Back2Back2Back champs.

Likewise! (minus the back2back2back part, obviously)

 

[TazHawk15]

Likewise! (minus the back2back2back part, obviously)

Just stating a fact.

 

[Tex200]

Must say it's nice to read an opposition board that shows some respect to the Back2Back2Back champs.

That said the Hawks are just going ATM although they fired up to show the WCE who was boss.

I have been very impressed with your boys so far and on form look to me to be very very hard to beat.

My heart says Hawks by a couple of goals but I would not be suprised if you guys roll us.

Hoping for a ripper of a game and no injuries to either team.

Welcome and thanks for the contribution.

Don't believe for a second that the Hawks are just going. They've taken care of 2 genuine top 4 contenders. Looks like pretty good form to me

 

[VSTone]

I'm pretty sure only 1 game per state gets the Anzac day treatment

bugger...should be this one then...

 

[chazwazza]

Hawks are a proud team and they'll respond if their backs are against a wall, look at the outs they've had so far and how they've responded.....albeit with the help of the usual dodgy umpiring decisions, you have to make the best of what's given and they do.
I just hope we get a fair game with good umpiring. While I hate the cheap shots they get away with I hope that we can give as good as we get and they're not protected by one sided umpiring like normal.
Should be a great game.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

All those people saying we need to sit on Mitchell are going to be disappointed. We have shown this year that we will not put time into stopping individual opposition midfielders.

Gray had 37 touches in the Showdown. Ellis had 39 and Cotchin 32 for Richmond. Hannebery 38 on the weekend.

We back our 18 to beat their 18. We are happy for them to have the best player on the field if our overall system is working. We don't try to make it a 17 on 17 contest.

Whether or not that is a good policy can be debated. But don't expect a Liberatore on Paul Kelly style tagging job on Mitchell on Friday night.

This is interesting as in rd1 I'm sure douggie blanketed swallow. Or maybe it was vice versa?