Oppo Camp Non-Essendon Thread XII

[eth-dog]

Well there's our first clear difference of opinion. I don't put stats above instinct from how I see them play in trying to judge where we're at, because there's obviously a lot of intangibles that are just as crucial to success like chemistry between the lines and within individual groups. Seeing clear, continuous improvement as a team and as individuals, then being able to quantify it over the journey, given 12/22 are a year behind the 8ball numbers don't mean a whole lot. (first time stats come into this thought process).

I reckon we've made noticeable improvement every week bar the Adelaide trip. A fade out in Perth is excusable, we were in every other loss and took some big scalps along the way. Better wins than Melbourne have had imo, they beat Adelaide then came home and got embarrassed.

I definitely don't ever see statistics and results as one in the same... in normal circumstances they give you a fraction of the story, even then been known to fib. But when the bottom 3 all win on the same weekend and we come out and kick 107 points on turnover against the best defensive side in the competition(..statistically), they are just about obsolete this year in gauging performance. Statistic: we're 8% behind the vastly superior Demon outfit with a stroll home if we can continue improving post bye.

What I see is everyone appearing really clear on their role when we attack. Especially the forward line whose ability to get each other in rhythm, with no obvious pecking order/egos, allows whoevers in form a good chance to capitalise or for another to exploit a match up and be a match winner. Super impressive for having only pre season together.
Coupled with the effort to run back and work for each other to effectively defend as a team is probably the best part. Can see they love playing together.

I look at Melbourne and see pretty much the same s**t box car, they chucked a new body kit some rims and a spoiler on, they are looking okay, s**t rims though and they're still gonna break down at some point and disappoint the f*** out of Garry Lyon again.

So basically you place Essendon higher in what will guaranteed be a biased opinion, than Melbourne with no quantifiable evidence backing it up, just "instinct". Gotcha. Is this the part where I point out the fact that Melbourne have outperformed our list the past 2 and a half years?

I also never said that Melbourne were "vastly superior". And yes, they're 8% ahead of us. With a game in hand. If they win on the weekend, from the same amount of games, they will be a win and 9-10% ahead of us. I like how you cherry pick poor or irrelevant statistics (like points against. Seriously, nobody with any idea uses that to measure how good a defence is) to highlight that stats mean nothing.

You can say that. I'll be sitting here when you concede that I'm right.

 

[BrunoV]

Well there's our first clear difference in opinion. I don't put stats above instinct from how I see them play in trying to judge where we're at, there's obviously a lot of intangibles that are just as if not more crucial to success like chemistry between the lines and within individual groups. (See hawthorn 3peat and Dogs) Seeing noticeable, continuous improvement as a team and in individuals, then being able to quantify how far we've progressed over the season. (first time stats even come into the thought process for me) Given 12/22 are a year behind the 8ball numbers don't mean a whole lot to me.

I reckon we've made noticeable improvement every week bar the Adelaide trip. A fade out in Perth is excusable, we were in every other loss and took some big scalps along the way. Better wins than Melbourne have had imo, they beat Adelaide then came home and got embarrassed.

I definitely don't ever see statistics and results as one in the same... in normal circumstances they give you a fraction of the story, even then been known to fib. But when the bottom 3 all win on the same weekend and we come out and kick 107 points on turnover against the best defensive side in the competition(..statistically), they are just about obsolete this year in gauging performance. Statistic: we're 8% behind the vastly superior Demon outfit with a stroll home if we can continue improving post bye.

What I see is everyone appearing really clear on their role when we attack. Especially the forward line whose ability to get each other in rhythm, with no obvious pecking order/egos, allows whoevers in form a good chance to capitalise or for another to exploit a match up and be a match winner. Super impressive for having only pre season together.
Coupled with the effort to run back and work for each other to effectively defend as a team is probably the best part. Easy to point fingers in a zone defence and it hurts a lot of teams, they all step up when it's their turn. Josh Green hunting Mitchell all the way to half back and getting him cold was a special moment in my life. Can see they love playing together.

I look at Melbourne and see running pretty much the same s**t box car with a new body kit and some rims, they are looking okay, still pretty bad though.. and they're still going to break down at some point and disappoint the f*** out of Garry Lyon again, who will in turn, break down. Can't wait.

It's the last paragraph that I happened to see that makes the rest of your post not worth reading.

Their half back flankers are arguably the best in the league. Hunt is the player people think JJ is. Their key defenders lack polish but Frost and T. McDonald can clearly do jobs 1v1. Jetta is probably the best small defender in the game.

Their midfield is still young and still well short of what it will be. Oliver is still a boy, Petracca needed forward because they've lost their forward structure and Brayshaw is not playing.

These guys have already shown more than enough to say that they will relegate players as good as Tyson, Vince, Jones and Viney out of the starting centre square.

All of the mids mentioned are being fed by Gawn who is a much better player than Sandilands and essentially just as dominant in the ruck.

Hogan is a player you can build a forward line around. Watts is as good a forward (I.e. his ability to create and convert opportunities into goals) as there is in the game. Garlett is a quality small forward and Hannan has shown a lot this year.

Salem is a class act. Weidemann is developing. Wagner is a good player. They get depth from Neale Bullen, Vandenberg, Kennedy, Harms and Kent all who have shown that they can play.

Their list is extremely well balanced.

 

[Teflon Dons]

Well I don't sit at games with my eyes closed, instinct may have been the wrong choice of word, but I've played the game my whole life up to now, so I trust myself to an extent on being able to judge how we're tracking without referring to the stat sheet. Feel like I'm relatively realistic about where we sit most of the time... We have all our Key posts locked with multiple AAs and our mids are improving and starting to work together. Zaka finally finding his form has allowed Jobe more of a chance to find some himself and he has. Started running tippa and fantasia through more often. McGrath a matter of time before he's unleashed in there. Merrett is A+ and Dys is just doing his thing, making blokes look unfit and being the leader when it comes to pressure and presence around the ball.

I'd put money on Joe and Hooker to dominate the McDonald's / frost, and another 20 on Hurley and Hartley to get the better of Hogan and Jack Watts... I just don't rate them the same as what it seems you do. Since it's my opinion, conceding for anything less than Melbourne winning the flag probably isn't likely.

Oh and we got the better number 1 pick.... even though they had 3-4 cracks at it and ended up coming home with Jack Watts.

The whole joint has an inherently putrid mindset since we embarrassed them in 2000, Roos said it was palpable when he got there. Wasn't really referring to talent per say in that last part. Just a culture of being consistently inconsistent and just awful over a long period of time. Sitting 6-5 after 14 priority picks and a couple mil to spend on a coach, is a long way from changing my opinion of them, not sure they would have convinced many at all at this stage. Not sure what got you defending them like Alex Rance but I guess we'll just have to leave it at a disagreement.

 

[Snake Charmer]

No doubt Melbourne have a good list. That's why we should of all been cheering for Collongwood yesterday as hard as that is. Every game Melbourne lose is good for us. It will be them and a few others along with us fighting it out for those 6-8 spots I reckon

 

[Snake Charmer]

Teflon Dons i tend to agree with you when you say you judge teams by the way they play and not stats. I'm the same. But this is bigfooty and if you wanna argue a point with someone you better get open about 800 tabs full of stats or you will get laughed out of here.

 

[Teflon Dons]

It's the last paragraph that I happened to see that makes the rest of your post not worth reading.

Their half back flankers are arguably the best in the league. Hunt is the player people think JJ is. Their key defenders lack polish but Frost and T. McDonald can clearly do jobs 1v1. Jetta is probably the best small defender in the game.

Their midfield is still young and still well short of what it will be. Oliver is still a boy, Petracca needed forward because they've lost their forward structure and Brayshaw is not playing.

These guys have already shown more than enough to say that they will relegate players as good as Tyson, Vince, Jones and Viney out of the starting centre square.

All of the mids mentioned are being fed by Gawn who is a much better player than Sandilands and essentially just as dominant in the ruck.

Hogan is a player you can build a forward line around. Watts is as good a forward (I.e. his ability to create and convert opportunities into goals) as their is in the game. Garlett is a quality small forward and Hannah has shown a lot this year.

Salem is a class act. Weidemann is developing. Wagner is a good player. They get depth from Neale Bullen, Vandenberg, Kennedy, Harms and Kent all who have shown that they can play.

Their list is extremely well balanced.

Wasn't referring to their list, I rate their talent pretty highly next to ours over the next 5-6 but still I'd like to think I'm unbiased in still opting to back ours. Explained it in the last reply....the car was meant to be a metaphor referring to the state of the vessel not the passengers........missed the boat with that one though. O well

 

[eth-dog]

Well I don't sit at games with my eyes closed, instinct may have been the wrong choice of word, but I've played the game my whole life up to now, so I trust myself to an extent on being able to judge how we're tracking without referring to the stat sheet. Feel like I'm relatively realistic about where we sit most of the time... We have all our Key posts locked with multiple AAs and our mids are improving and starting to work well together. Zaka finally finding his form has allowed Jobe more of a chance to find some himself and he has. Started running tippa and fantasia through more often. McGrath a matter of time before he's unleashed in there. Merrett is A+ and Dys is just doing his thing, making blokes look unfit and being the leader when it comes to pressure and presence around the ball.

I'd put money on Joe and Hooker to dominate the McDonald's / frost, and another 20 on Hurley and Hartley to get the better of Hogan and Jack Watts... I just don't rate them the same as what it seems you do. Since it's my opinion, conceding for anything less than Melbourne winning the flag probably isn't likely.

Oh and we got the better number 1 pick.... even though they had 3-4 cracks at it and came home with Jack Watts. The whole joint has an inherently putrid mindset since we embarrassed them in 2000, Roos said it was palpable when he got there. Wasn't really referring to talent per say in that last part. Just a culture of being consistently inconsistent and just awful over a long period of time. Sitting 6-5 after 14 priority picks and a couple mil to spend on a coach, is a long way from changing my opinion of them, not sure they would have convinced many at all at this stage. Not sure what got you defending them like Alex Rance but I guess we'll just have to leave it at a disagreement.

You're making an argument with absolutely no evidence to back your opinions up. And it doesn't matter how long you play the game, I know plenty of people who have had a long career in football but know * all when it comes to analysis. I like our potential too but your original statement was that with another couple more big bodied mids we'd be great. Well I could make an argument that Melbourne are an outside receiver and third tall with better kicking skills than their three key defenders away from that too.

You'd put money on Joey and Hooker dominating them, huh? Let's look what happened last time we played Melbourne... Tom McDonald killed us and was clearly best on ground. Hurley and Hartley to dominate Watts and Hogan? Like how Watts had 20 touches and kicked 4 goals?

Jack Watts, you mean the guy that probably won the match for them yesterday, kicked 4 against us and has kicked 55 goals in the past year and a half? Jeez, you're either living in the past or a very harsh critic on them, or both. I'm defending them because they're a very good side playing better football than us at this point in time which is reflected in the statistics and ladder position.

 

[Teflon Dons]

You're making an argument with absolutely no evidence to back your opinions up. And it doesn't matter how long you play the game, I know plenty of people who have had a long career in football but know **** all when it comes to analysis. I like our potential too but your original statement was that with another couple more big bodied mids we'd be great. Well I could make an argument that Melbourne are an outside receiver and third tall with better kicking skills than their three key defenders away from that too.

You'd put money on Joey and Hooker dominating them, huh? Let's look what happened last time we played Melbourne... Tom McDonald killed us and was clearly best on ground. Hurley and Hartley to dominate Watts and Hogan? Like how Watts had 20 touches and kicked 4 goals?

Jack Watts, you mean the guy that probably won the match for them yesterday, kicked 4 against us and has kicked 55 goals in the past year and a half? Jeez, you're either living in the past or a very harsh critic on them, or both. I'm defending them because they're a very good side playing better football than us at this point in time which is reflected in the statistics and ladder position.

Saw that game as more of a poor performance from our side rather than being outplayed at our best, ahh, yes, I'd absolutely have my all my money on Joe and Hooker over those guys, would you back the McDonald's in against those two.? I'm getting a bit confused by the increasingly irritated attitude from your end, you need to keep in mind that we're arguing something completely subjective at this point and you're getting a little too defensive of your own opinion, might want to check that before getting arrogant about it. And yes, that Jack Watts. He's turned into a pretty solid player but he wasn't the kind of forward talent to justify going number 1 over Natanui for me. In fact I never even said he was bad I just stated the FACT that McGrath is clearly going to be the better no 1 pick.

Never said anything about having more or less knowledge having played, just giving myself a reason to back my judgement without knowing where we are in the comp for inside 50 defensive pressure efficiency resulting in a goal. Nah. Are we done now?

 

[eth-dog]

Saw that game as more of a poor performance from our side rather than being outplayed out our best, and I'd absolutely have my money on Joe and Hooker over those guys, would you seriously back the McDonald's in against those two? I'm getting a bit confused by the increasingly irritated attitude from your end, you need to keep in mind that we're arguing something completely subjective at this point and you're getting a little too defensive of your own opinion, might want to check that before getting arrogant about it.

Never said anything about having more or less knowledge having played, just giving a reason to backing my judgement without knowing where we are in the comp for inside 50 defensive pressure efficiency resulting in a goal. Nah. Are we done now?

So basically, you said you'd back our players against theirs. I show evidence of the opposite happening and you all but say that it's irrelevant. Tom McDonald is a star and anybody who says otherwise is kidding themselves. Yes, we're arguing something subjective, yet you continue to attack my opinion without even presenting ANY evidence to suggest that you're right. I can cop being wrong, I have before and I will again, but you need some quantifiable evidence to actually prove it.

If you can prove my opinion incorrect with actual, quantifiable evidence other than your "instinct" or "eyes" then yes, we're done. Otherwise sit down and shut up until you can, or concede.

 

[Teflon Dons]

So basically, you said you'd back our players against theirs. I show evidence of the opposite happening and you all but say that it's irrelevant. Tom McDonald is a star and anybody who says otherwise is kidding themselves. Yes, we're arguing something subjective, yet you continue to attack my opinion without even presenting ANY evidence to suggest that you're right. I can cop being wrong, I have before and I will again, but you need some quantifiable evidence to actually prove it.

If you can prove my opinion incorrect with actual, quantifiable evidence other than your "instinct" or "eyes" then yes, we're done. Otherwise sit down and shut up until you can, or concede.

Boy oh boy.
I said we didn't play well, playing kick to kick with the opposition in the corridor isn't how we'd like to move the ball, ideally.
I haven't dismissed you're opinion or said "you're wrong" once, Melbourne may have more success with their list.... I just don't agree. At all. But took exception to the righteousness that's come with the opinion the last couple of posts. If stats are what lead you to opt for the McDonald's over the best contested mark in the comp and Joe ****** Daniher, I don't wanna know about em. Stop it. I ain't out to prove anyone wrong, I was just sayin', really.. who gives a * who's wrong when we're partaking in a heated guessing game?

 

[eth-dog]

Boy oh boy.
I said we didn't play well, playing kick to kick with the opposition in the corridor isn't how we'd like to move the ball, ideally.
I haven't dismissed you're opinion or said "you're wrong" once, Melbourne may have more success with their list.... I just don't agree. At all. But took exception to the righteousness that's come with the opinion the last couple of posts. If stats are what lead you to opt for the McDonald's over the best contested mark in the comp and Joe ****** Daniher, I don't wanna know about em. Stop it. I ain't out to prove anyone wrong, I was just sarin', really.. who gives a **** who's wrong when we're partaking in a heated guessing game?

Talk about putting words in my mouth. I never said I'd pick the McDonald's, just said that they outperformed the pair in the last game and that you clearly underrate Tom McDonald. I'm just asking you to back up your OPINIONS with actual hard, quantifiable evidence.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Another strange week on Bigfooty obviously.

Never seen somebody defend Melbourne so rigorously!

 

[Teflon Dons]

Talk about putting words in my mouth. I never said I'd pick the McDonald's, just said that they outperformed the pair in the last game and that you clearly underrate Tom McDonald. I'm just asking you to back up your OPINIONS with actual hard, quantifiable evidence.

did not once comment on Tom McDonald's ability. I actually rate him as one of the more competent Key backs in the league at defending the oppositions best forward. Melbourne are very lucky he's there.

I just don't need to look at quantities of anything to tell me that Joe Daniher is on a different planet and Tom couldn't grow enough to be able to compete with him aerially or at ground level. As my boy Conor McGregor once said.. If you want to compete with me, you've gotta have some attributes.. size, length, reach, speed. Cos if you come in anywhere near equal to me I'll knock you're whole head off. They're just not at my level" bit like that.

 

[Andronicus]

I've mentioned it a few times, but I'll say it again.

First Dusty, and now SPP. When will they call a high fend off? Gleeson cops a straight arm to the throat and the commentators spend the next 10 minutes praising the move.

So if a trip looks impressive, they are fair game too?

 

[JayJ20]

We have a better forward line than Melbourne. Defence is probably comparable, but I'll say ours is better with bias. Their midfield is so much better than ours. We're comfortably behind list-wise based on that alone IMO.

 

[Killer_Mike]

We have a better forward line than Melbourne. Defence is probably comparable, but I'll say ours is better with bias. Their midfield is so much better than ours. We're comfortably behind list-wise based on that alone IMO.

I personally think that our best football on its day can beat anyone, I don't feel the same way about Melbourne.

Our forwardline is clearly better and I'm not even talking about comparing player to player, it's system compared to system.

I feel the same way about our backline.

Melbourne currently have the edge in midfield but that can change in the second half of the year.

If I was to ask anyone what would be the easiest part of the ground to improve, 90% would say the midfield and thats why I believe our list is comfortably ahead.

I think we still have the greatest scope for improvement in our current lineups, and then we factor in drafting and recruiting and we can be premiership ready very soon.

A lot still has to go right for Melbourne I believe.

 

[citizen-erased]

Talk about putting words in my mouth. I never said I'd pick the McDonald's, just said that they outperformed the pair in the last game and that you clearly underrate Tom McDonald. I'm just asking you to back up your OPINIONS with actual hard, quantifiable evidence.

McDonald is good but he, and his brother, are suspect with ball in hand
I have a lot of mates who go for Melbourne and they do get frustrated with the disposal of both (also found it amusing when we sent Melksham there )
Dees have a good list, but it's got some holes.

Their rucks are superior
Jones, Petracca, Oliver, Tyson, Salem is a strong midfield.
Lots of dash out of their backline with Hibberd, Hunt and Frost
Hogan & Watts are good forwards too

but they are prone to poor disposal across the board and tend to end up chasing a win than protecting a lead.

Compare the 22
Defence
Bags v Jetta. Both solid, Jetta in ripping form while Bags is doing his role
Hartley v OMac. Hartley is more reliable a defender and disposer
Ambrose v Frost. I like Frost's attack on the game, but it can be dangerous. Ambrose is industrious and reliable in defence
McGrath v Hibberd. Stiff comparing a vet in AA form to a 1st year player, but McGrath is probably on equal output with Hibberd
Hurley v TMac. We have the better CHB here. TMac is good, but not on Hurley's level
McKenna v Hunt. Both have pace to burn and are weapons with their run and carry. Conor can kick to advantage as well.

Forwards
Bugg Hogan Garlett
Harmes Watts Hannan
vs
Fantasia Hooker Stewart
Green Daniher Tippa
fair to say we have the better forward line

Rucks
Bellchambers, Leuenberger, McKernan
v
Gawn, Spencer, Pederson
fair to say Melbourne have the better rucks.

Mids
Merrett v Oliver
Parish v Petracca
Watson v Lewis
Goddard v Vince
Colyer v Salem
Zaka v Tyson
Myers v Melksham
Howlett v Neal Bullen
Pretty even here. Will be interesting when our depth starts coming through
Langford, Laverde, Begley, Francis offer us more than the Dees have going off their VFL form.

 

[Lore]

More re-signings at Brisbane:

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

More great news good work Brissy.

 

[citizen-erased]

I've mentioned it a few times, but I'll say it again.

First Dusty, and now SPP. When will they call a high fend off? Gleeson cops a straight arm to the throat and the commentators spend the next 10 minutes praising the move.

So if a trip looks impressive, they are fair game too?

fend off with a boot to the throat....why not

 

[Pweter]

I've mentioned it a few times, but I'll say it again.

First Dusty, and now SPP. When will they call a high fend off? Gleeson cops a straight arm to the throat and the commentators spend the next 10 minutes praising the move.

So if a trip looks impressive, they are fair game too?

I'd love to hear that one put to the powers that be. Fend off to the chest, play on, otherwise it should be the same as for a tackle. Contact above the shoulders = free kick.

 

[Snake Charmer]

Daniher kicked 1.6 lol. He dominated which ever Mcdonald played on him. He just didn't hurt the score board

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Melbournes midfield has better players than our but lacks the balance. Too much inside not enough outside.

 

[lysp]

Step ladder pic:

 

[eDPS]

More re-signings at Brisbane:

Damn would have loved to lure Skinner to us