Hawthorn FC worst nightmare the 2017 Draft

[Strapping Young Lad]

The younger players may turn out to be okay, but it would take the most optimistic to think they will form the basis of a strong side.

I look to what they have done thus far, and compared to other clubs youth it is comfortably got the least upside and current credentials.

I can be wrong but I doubt it.

If hawthorn get out of this quicker than expected, it will be on the back majorly of players who aren't at the club yet.

People would've said similar about the 2004 list and yet 3 years later we were playing finals. And this was when the only way you could gain players was via trade or draft.

Free Agency and Academies, of which hawthorn have a few decent looking prospects change the landscape.

All this "Hawthorn have no picks and won't play finals for 6+ years!" is wishful hyperbole.

 

[Pessimistic]

Fair to say you would be. Obrien isn't much chop and the fact he's keeping a guy out who you just bought it in speaks volumes for your off-season debacle last year.

I fully expected you to unrate O'Brien. see you in ten years when youre saying hes a champion we will struggle to replace. This is why we dont rate your 'opinion' much

And sorry I'm not as much an expert on the saints as you are on the Hawks. But try the afl stats comparison with obrien and st Kilda forwards. I tried josh Bruce and nick Reiwoldt obrien come in the middle of these two. This one seems the closest. Granted tims not played more than a few games in 2017 so small sample

 

[Pessimistic]

Lets face it, Hawthorn Sydney and geelong have pretty much owned the AFL and while they have had a core drafted mainly 10 years ago, they have extended thir run while the others have - well - you all know theve got nowhere.

Hawthorn 2008-2016 missed finals once. core players Hodge, Mitchell (drafted 2001) Roughead, Lewis (drafted 2004)

 

[Walshawk]

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2017-06-14/hawk-prospects-impress-in-nga-academy
We have four NGA players eligible for this draft.
I say grab them all. This is the off season for 'catastrophic change'. We should turnover all the deadwood, grab 10 youngsters. We have picks in every round except the first, so the argument that 'this is not the year to bring in too many new players'is bunk.
We simply cannot have another season like this where it feels like we are going nowhere.

 

[Saint]

People would've said similar about the 2004 list and yet 3 years later we were playing finals. And this was when the only way you could gain players was via trade or draft.

Free Agency and Academies, of which hawthorn have a few decent looking prospects change the landscape.

All this "Hawthorn have no picks and won't play finals for 6+ years!" is wishful hyperbole.

Nobody would have said that. Everyone would have said: Well they'll have another priority pick this year, so we can see how they'll get out of this mess. Plus they've got some good players from their previous priority picks and drafts.

GWS and GC changed the landscape by soaking up all the good draft picks so clubs were overly pursuing FA, now players are expecting well overs to move clubs for FA, it's not the way to build a team from 2nd bottom, maybe if you're still at the top. But if you've lost twice to a club that finished bottom 4 last year and lost key players, you can't FA your way out of trouble.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Even if Hawks go through 3-5 years of mediocrity, who cares?

They had a period of sustained success and multiple premierships. Any other club would take that trade-off in a heartbeat.

The Jaeger trade isn't like they auctioned the future. His 10-year output is likely to be around the same or not much worse as the draft picks they gave up.

 

[Pessimistic]

Nobody would have said that. Everyone would have said: Well they'll have another priority pick this year, so we can see how they'll get out of this mess. Plus they've got some good players from their previous priority picks and drafts.

GWS and GC changed the landscape by soaking up all the good draft picks so clubs were overly pursuing FA, now players are expecting well overs to move clubs for FA, it's not the way to build a team from 2nd bottom, maybe if you're still at the top. But if you've lost twice to a club that finished bottom 4 last year and lost key players, you can't FA your way out of trouble.

One spin on it. I could easily say two wins and percentage out of the eight, and one behind st kilda, who have their own retirement holes to fill, just on the quiet:}
We know where we are, and Hawks have used all recruitment methods to great effect, fully expect this to continue
(actually weve had busts too: pps in 05 and 06 couldve landed selwood and pendlebury - theres no guarantee picks will do anything)

 

[Hawk Dork]

One spin on it. I could easily say two wins and percentage out of the eight, and one behind st kilda, who have their own retirement holes to fill, just on the quiet:}
We know where we are, and Hawks have used all recruitment methods to great effect, fully expect this to continue
(actually weve had busts too: pps in 05 and 06 couldve landed selwood and pendlebury - theres no guarantee picks will do anything)

with a a few big outs to come back next year while the kids get some exposure this year.

 

[Pessimistic]

Even if Hawks go through 3-5 years of mediocrity, who cares?

They had a period of sustained success and multiple premierships. Any other club would take that trade-off in a heartbeat.

The Jaeger trade isn't like they auctioned the future. His 10-year output is likely to be around the same or not much worse as the draft picks they gave up.

Thanks. The wisdom being presented is we should 'assume' it will be five at least and trade away any good players we have for draft picks then...well no one can say what you do if you blow those

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Very odd analogy. Recruiting an injured player and saying that he will be ready in two rounds rather than four or five is equivalent to running a club wide doping program?

Yeeeeep

couldn't respond to this at the time for various reasons, but this needs to be addressed.

I honestly was surprised to read this, I thought you were supposed to be a pretty smart guy. Maybe I was mistaken.

I clearly wasn't equating the recruitment of JOM with a club wide doping program. I was comparing the way clubs talk to their supporters, and the way supporters respond to those messages. The actual events that it is based on are actually irrelevant, except for the fact that it illustrates the extreme hypocrisy of many Hawthorn fans.

During the club wide doping program you refer to Hawthorn supporters among others accused EFC supporters, quite rightly as I pointed out, of "chugging the kool-aid" - a metaphor for swallowing any line that the club put out. A good example is that "they took nothing illegal line". This was pointed out repeatedly to be weasel words, because illegality is not the point. The point is that it is banned under the WADA code, not that it is illegal.

So to clarify again for you, the comparison is around the messaging, not the events.

And in this situation, it seems that it is Hawthorn supporters who - by and large, not all - are chugging the kool aid. Big time. When the club said that O'Meara would be "back after the bye" it is completely correct to point out that, to the letter of the quote, they aren't lying in any way. Just like EFC wasn't lying about the club not taking anything illegal. it's just that, that's not the point. Because the message was quite rightly interpreted by everyone that he would back after the bye. Like any other time a coach says their player will be back after the bye. They'll use the extra week to get right and play the following game.

Otherwise, why say "back after they bye"? Why not say "sometime in the second half of the year"? And the answer is obvious, they were lying to you. And you all, by and large, slurped that big mug of kool aid down.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Jaeger is cooked. Hawthorn are cooked.

Couldn't happen to a better bunch of people, my heart bleeds

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Nobody would have said that. Everyone would have said: Well they'll have another priority pick this year, so we can see how they'll get out of this mess. Plus they've got some good players from their previous priority picks and drafts.

GWS and GC changed the landscape by soaking up all the good draft picks so clubs were overly pursuing FA, now players are expecting well overs to move clubs for FA, it's not the way to build a team from 2nd bottom, maybe if you're still at the top. But if you've lost twice to a club that finished bottom 4 last year and lost key players, you can't FA your way out of trouble.

More wishful thinking and crap.

Hawthorn had not had any previous Priority picks before 2004. The 2007 finals side had 1 priority pick in it.

You don't actually know what clubs can do with FA, because it's never been available to clubs after sustained periods in the past.

You're just hoping Hawthorn can't do anything to lift themselves.

It's clear in every single one of your posts.

 

[Richo83]

People would've said similar about the 2004 list and yet 3 years later we were playing finals. And this was when the only way you could gain players was via trade or draft.

Free Agency and Academies, of which hawthorn have a few decent looking prospects change the landscape.

All this "Hawthorn have no picks and won't play finals for 6+ years!" is wishful hyperbole.

Free agency is available to every team, not just Hawthorn. As for academies, you're not the only club with academy picks, according to Twomey and an article published on the hawks website, you potentially have access to four academy kids. Richmond also has access to academy kids, but I'd go easy on relying on academies to push back up the ladder. There's academies and there's academies (here's looking at you giants).

 

[Pessimistic]

Jaeger is cooked. Hawthorn are cooked.

Couldn't happen to a better bunch of people, my heart bleeds

Are you Tinky winky or Po?

 

[Pessimistic]

Otherwise, why say "back after they bye"? Why not say "sometime in the second half of the year"? And the answer is obvious, they were lying to you. And you all, by and large, slurped that big mug of kool aid down.

We generally accept our clubs injury reports generally vary between comedy and fantasy. Do yourself a favour and think the same

 

[joop]

I fully expected you to unrate O'Brien. see you in ten years when youre saying hes a champion we will struggle to replace. This is why we dont rate your 'opinion' much

And sorry I'm not as much an expert on the saints as you are on the Hawks. But try the afl stats comparison with obrien and st Kilda forwards. I tried josh Bruce and nick Reiwoldt obrien come in the middle of these two. This one seems the closest. Granted tims not played more than a few games in 2017 so small sample


View attachment 381688

Didn't know having an opinion made me an expert, but thank you for the compliment. Whilst you are on stats, thanks for the top 5 pick, enjoy jaeger.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

couldn't respond to this at the time for various reasons, but this needs to be addressed.

I honestly was surprised to read this, I thought you were supposed to be a pretty smart guy. Maybe I was mistaken.

I clearly wasn't equating the recruitment of JOM with a club wide doping program. I was comparing the way clubs talk to their supporters, and the way supporters respond to those messages. The actual events that it is based on are actually irrelevant, except for the fact that it illustrates the extreme hypocrisy of many Hawthorn fans.

During the club wide doping program you refer to Hawthorn supporters among others accused EFC supporters, quite rightly as I pointed out, of "chugging the kool-aid" - a metaphor for swallowing any line that the club put out. A good example is that "they took nothing illegal line". This was pointed out repeatedly to be weasel words, because illegality is not the point. The point is that it is banned under the WADA code, not that it is illegal.

So to clarify again for you, the comparison is around the messaging, not the events.

And in this situation, it seems that it is Hawthorn supporters who - by and large, not all - are chugging the kool aid. Big time. When the club said that O'Meara would be "back after the bye" it is completely correct to point out that, to the letter of the quote, they aren't lying in any way. Just like EFC wasn't lying about the club not taking anything illegal. it's just that, that's not the point. Because the message was quite rightly interpreted by everyone that he would back after the bye. Like any other time a coach says their player will be back after the bye. They'll use the extra week to get right and play the following game.

Otherwise, why say "back after they bye"? Why not say "sometime in the second half of the year"? And the answer is obvious, they were lying to you. And you all, by and large, slurped that big mug of kool aid down.

I'm still waiting for you to provide a quote or statement from the club that JOM would be back after the bye.

You've read the Hawk board and took people assumptions as gospel.

The club made no such statement.


https://amp.theage.com.au/afl/afl-n...jured-hawk-jaeger-omeara-20170507-gvzt0c.html

"Jaeger was feeling great going in to last week's clash but unfortunately, despite us giving him every opportunity to get up for today's match, he still has some soreness around his knee," Burt told the club's website.

"Fortunately, the irritation is still in relation to the knock he received in round two and separate from the problems Jaeger has faced in the past.

"We have said all along, given his history, we will take a cautious approach."

That means they will take their time before O'Meara returns to the senior team.

"We are hopeful the soreness will settle relatively quickly and then it will be about ensuring that Jaeger has a solid block of conditioning before he comes back into the side," Burt said.

"Both Jaeger and the club want to ensure that he is feeling 100 per cent for a period of time before he returns to senior football.

"We have absolute confidence that Jaeger will play consistent, sustained football for the Hawks.

"We want to ensure that he steps onto the field with that same confidence, and that means giving him the time to get a solid block of training and conditioning under his belt before he returns again."


And seriously, you should quit trying to make out like supporters saying "JOM will be fine, he will come good, give it time" is anything like the continued bullshit that Essendon and its supporters rolled with for 4 years.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Free agency is available to every team, not just Hawthorn. As for academies, you're not the only club with academy picks, according to Twomey and an article published on the hawks website, you potentially have access to four academy kids. Richmond also has access to academy kids, but I'd go easy on relying on academies to push back up the ladder. There's academies and there's academies (here's looking at you giants).

I never said we were relying on Academies, but this continued line of "Hawthorn have no picks and nothing to trade, so they can't do anything with their list" is pure fantasy".

Of course other clubs have access to FA and whatever else, we're not talking about other clubs though. We're talking about Hawthorn and how they can manage or change their list going forward, and despite the constant narrative in than thread otherwise, Hawthorn have as many ways as every other club.

 

[Richo83]

More wishful thinking and crap.

Hawthorn had not had any previous Priority picks before 2004. The 2007 finals side had 1 priority pick in it.

You don't actually know what clubs can do with FA, because it's never been available to clubs after sustained periods in the past.

You're just hoping Hawthorn can't do anything to lift themselves.

It's clear in every single one of your posts.

Problem with free agency is it often costs a lot to shift a key player away from a team. Hawthorn have used free agency well but that's often because they've been able to promise premierships which isn't a thing they can do as easily as in previous years. We also know that clubs who have used free agency in American sports have a spotty record, sometimes it comes off, other times you end up paying a lot for a guy you need to perform. This also happened in Australia before drafting came along.

 

[Richo83]

I never said we were relying on Academies, but this continued line of "Hawthorn have no picks and nothing to trade, so they can't do anything with their list" is pure fantasy".

Of course other clubs have access to FA and whatever else, we're not talking about other clubs though. We're talking about Hawthorn and how they can manage or change their list going forward, and despite the constant narrative in than thread otherwise, Hawthorn have as many ways as every other club.

Most if not all clubs have better draft capital heading into this year's draft, and looking at the ladder, more than half of the league have a better list to work with. So saying Hawthorn have as many ways as other clubs is disputable.

Yes, Hawthorn can use free agency, but so can other clubs. Yes, Hawthorn can use academies, but so can other clubs. What Hawthorn currently can't do is pick early in the draft.

To speak from a personal perspective, Richmond has agencies, it also has access to free agency. But if Richmond lost access to early picks, especially very early picks, I'd be worried. If I recall correctly the last time Richmond traded away pick two (which is what you'd get if you kept your picks) they missed out on the chance to draft Daniel Wells.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Most if not all clubs have better draft capital heading into this year's draft, and looking at the ladder, more than half of the league have a better list to work with. So saying Hawthorn have as many ways as other clubs is disputable.

Yes, Hawthorn can use free agency, but so can other clubs. Yes, Hawthorn can use academies, but so can other clubs. What Hawthorn currently can't do is pick early in the draft.

To speak from a personal perspective, Richmond has agencies, it also has access to free agency. But if Richmond lost access to early picks, especially very early picks, I'd be worried. If I recall correctly the last time Richmond traded away pick two (which is what you'd get if you kept your picks) they missed out on the chance to draft Daniel Wells.

and the last time Richmond used pick 2 they got Tambling

 

[Lance Uppercut]

I'm still waiting for you to provide a quote or statement from the club that JOM would be back after the bye.

You've read the Hawk board and took people assumptions as gospel.

The club made no such statement.


https://amp.theage.com.au/afl/afl-n...jured-hawk-jaeger-omeara-20170507-gvzt0c.html

"Jaeger was feeling great going in to last week's clash but unfortunately, despite us giving him every opportunity to get up for today's match, he still has some soreness around his knee," Burt told the club's website.

"Fortunately, the irritation is still in relation to the knock he received in round two and separate from the problems Jaeger has faced in the past.

"We have said all along, given his history, we will take a cautious approach."

That means they will take their time before O'Meara returns to the senior team.

"We are hopeful the soreness will settle relatively quickly and then it will be about ensuring that Jaeger has a solid block of conditioning before he comes back into the side," Burt said.

"Both Jaeger and the club want to ensure that he is feeling 100 per cent for a period of time before he returns to senior football.

"We have absolute confidence that Jaeger will play consistent, sustained football for the Hawks.

"We want to ensure that he steps onto the field with that same confidence, and that means giving him the time to get a solid block of training and conditioning under his belt before he returns again."


And seriously, you should quit trying to make out like supporters saying "JOM will be fine, he will come good, give it time" is anything like the continued bullshit that Essendon and its supporters rolled with for 4 years.

oh sorry mate, for some reason I was unable to respond to you for a little while. My bad though.

Are you saying O'Meara isn't the club?

HAWTHORN’S high-priced recruit Jaeger O’Meara has declared he will be fit to play after the club’s bye in three weeks.

O’Meara has been struck by knee issues since he joined the Hawks from the Gold Coast, where he missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to his knee.

The playmaker has managed just four games, missing six games in total including the past four.

“I understand the panic — Jaeger O’Meara and knee ... but we just decided to pull it back a little bit,” O’Meara told Channel 7 last night.

“My scans are all good, which is the main thing. They’ve all come up clear. I’ve got a little bit of stuff going on but nothing major and nothing to do with my previous surgery.

“I’m really confident that once I’ve done this little conditioning block that will give me a launching pad for the rest of the year and I should be sweet.”

If he does return for Round 14, O’Meara will have missed eight games in total, plus the bye weekend.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...s/news-story/7de67ba75cf35bf746c431ead0114b43

The reason for the deadline of the bye there was that it coincided exactly with the training block that he was supposedly doing.

So there's JOM himself implying he'll be back after the bye. Now how about the coach:

“He’s going along OK, we’re hoping that he’ll be able to step it up over the next few weeks,’’ Clarkson said.

”We probably wouldn’t anticipate he plays before the bye. But his training has been really strong and we said we’d get a really good conditioning block into him and he’s progressing well through that and he’ll be back into full training pretty soon I reckon.’’

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n/news-story/d02bd3fcedc83c43383d4348292c6556

So the coach also mentions the bye. Again, not sure why he'd specifically say "the bye" if he didn't mean he'd play after the bye, but that's how weasel words work isn't it.

Then there was this from O'Meara himself as the messenger, back in April:

SIDELINED Hawthorn midfielder Jaeger O'Meara expects to be back for his side's clash with West Coast on Sunday at the MCG. O'Meara missed the match against Geelong with what the club said was a knock to his right knee suffered last week against Gold Coast. The former Sun said on Channel Seven he almost made it up for the Easter Monday match versus the Cats.

"I was pretty close. Box Hill was playing on Friday and they (the club) had to make the decision on the Thursday," O'Meara said.

"It ruled me out of this week but I'm confident that I'll only miss the one game."

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-04-17/super-cautious-hawks-set-to-regain-omeara

So there's JOM himself telling the faithful that he'll be back waaay back on Easter Monday.

Then there's Clarkson saying he'll only miss a week after the Round 3 injury.

"From what we can gather it's got nothing to do with [his previous injury].

"Although it is a knock to the same knee that has been sore previously, we don't think it's anything related so hopefully that will settle down over the next week and he'll play next week."

He ended up missing 3 weeks.

So we've gone from Easter Monday.

To when the training block up to the bye is complete.

To now, sometime after the bye.

And you still think that your club is being completely honest with you and every word they say is true even though just a simple look through past statements clearly shows a pattern or implying or outright stating that he'll be back on a certain date, then moving the goalposts.

The simple fact is, footy supporters chug the kool aid. Like you and your mates are doing right now.

Good luck to the kid, hope we see him soon but I would almost put money on the fact he won't play again this year and that will be almost 3 full seasons out of the game. I may well be wrong but that's the way it looks from where I'm sitting.

Maybe the Hawks shouldn't have pushed to get him playing meaningless preseason games to placate the membership base [/quote][/quote]

 

[Richo83]

and the last time Richmond used pick 2 they got Tambling

That was pick four.

And just for the record, trying to devalue high draft picks by citing bad drafting is like trying to devalue money by pointing to bad corporate decisions.

 

[Hawk Dork]

That was pick four.

And just for the record, trying to devalue high draft picks by citing bad drafting is like trying to devalue money by pointing to bad corporate decisions.

the draft is a lottery
Melbourne Saints Blues GCS are full of lots and lots and lots of early picks and arent reallygreat role models for how to build successful teams
GWS obviously is too and have a system in place that will keep them topped up for decades.
You cant beat that by trying to copy it, because they will win every single time because of the advantages they got given,they have been set up to win.
Everyone else is set up to fail (except Sydney and their academy too)
To beat them you need a plan B and luck

The teams that are going to challenge GWS for the flag this year have very few early picks

 

[threesixpio]

Well, you're conflating many different posters, who have different opinions, into a single "this is what other posters think" argument, so what you missed was context and subtlety.

As for my opinion.

Hawthorn/Clarkson said they could keep both Lewis & Mitchell, that it wasn't salary cap that forced their hand. They said they were aiming at contending this year. They traded out their early 2017 picks which appears to support this, and got in some older RFA/UFA players to play bit roles.

I don't actually mind this. Except it seems contradictory. If 2017 was really a contending year, why not keep two players who might have a short term impact, and made up a big chunk of the engine room? Doing everything else and letting these two players go seems a mistake to me.

I also believe O'Meara was just too expensive full stop. But it's hard to ever measure that as you don't really know what the "what ifs" truly were.

Now, there is also the third possible mistake, that won't be proven for a few years, that they just generally over-rated the list. O'Meara's cost if you finish low on the ladder was extreme, with a reasonable degree of risk perceived to be attached. Players like Vickery and Henderson don't help long term. If this call was the wrong call, then using those 2017 picks on O'Meara, and topping up will be a big failure. But, trading Mitchell & Lewis will be the right call then.

We won't know on some of those for a few years yet. I've always rated Clarkson, and if he's got the fire in the belly for a full rebuild I wouldn't go anywhere else. You're list management team have a few question marks though in my book, as after a strong period of success, I do question decisions like Vickery, Henderson, O'Rourke and O'Meara. Maybe too much belief that Hawthorn could fix players. But you may prove me wrong.

Not an unreasonable post. I think Henderson and Vickery were brought in

couldn't respond to this at the time for various reasons, but this needs to be addressed.

I honestly was surprised to read this, I thought you were supposed to be a pretty smart guy. Maybe I was mistaken.

I clearly wasn't equating the recruitment of JOM with a club wide doping program. I was comparing the way clubs talk to their supporters, and the way supporters respond to those messages. The actual events that it is based on are actually irrelevant, except for the fact that it illustrates the extreme hypocrisy of many Hawthorn fans.

During the club wide doping program you refer to Hawthorn supporters among others accused EFC supporters, quite rightly as I pointed out, of "chugging the kool-aid" - a metaphor for swallowing any line that the club put out. A good example is that "they took nothing illegal line". This was pointed out repeatedly to be weasel words, because illegality is not the point. The point is that it is banned under the WADA code, not that it is illegal.

So to clarify again for you, the comparison is around the messaging, not the events.

And in this situation, it seems that it is Hawthorn supporters who - by and large, not all - are chugging the kool aid. Big time. When the club said that O'Meara would be "back after the bye" it is completely correct to point out that, to the letter of the quote, they aren't lying in any way. Just like EFC wasn't lying about the club not taking anything illegal. it's just that, that's not the point. Because the message was quite rightly interpreted by everyone that he would back after the bye. Like any other time a coach says their player will be back after the bye. They'll use the extra week to get right and play the following game.

Otherwise, why say "back after they bye"? Why not say "sometime in the second half of the year"? And the answer is obvious, they were lying to you. And you all, by and large, slurped that big mug of kool aid down.

I likely think you're a smart guy and still think your long winded response in no way addresses my point that messaging around an injury/fitness of a player over what is now half a season, which actually regularly occurs in AFL, can in ANY way be compared to the messaging of one of the biggest scandals seen in AFL which involved multiple parties. You are not one to clutch at straws and, if anything, are one of my favourite posters for challenging silly arguments ...like the one you posted.

So colour ME surprised