Hawthorn FC worst nightmare the 2017 Draft

[Leather Poisoning]

Sicily has been dropped twice this year from a team that is 2nd last on the ladder. O'Brien has been on your list for almost 5 years and has done stuff all. Not a lot to write home about there.

Sicily has a tonne of talent but needs an attitude alignment every now and then. What I said is still true - for a guy his age to kick has many goals as he did in 2016 is impressive. He has talent. The question was "of the young guys who looks like they could be more than a role player" Sicily is a clear example.

I would have agreed with you last year on O'Brien - but if you've watched him this year you will see a guy that definitely looks like he will be more than a role player.

Question - how many games at senior level do give a player before you write them off as being decent? We all know young/inexperienced players are up and down, but when is the write off point?

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Gunston has been a better finals performer all up than Franklin. (Some would say by a fair margin) He's younger too. Yet everyone's fawns over buddy but we should trade gunners ?

Someone quoted our 2004 list and I did match up current players to the 2005 list

I have 8 better than then. 4 worse and four equal

I had 2017 Roughead eqivalent to 2005 Stewart dew who hadn't even been recruited yet
Another example I had 2017 Rioli equivalent to 2005 Crawford even though they are different types of player. These are the oldest 2017 players I included as still being relevant in a rebuild

The 2005 players who won a flag in 2008 were quite young and 2-3 years younger than my 2017 equivalents. They did however beat doggies saints and Geelong in the finals who were 2-4 advanced as lists on hawthorn

Biggest issue is the midfield and the game going forward might dictate a different style of midfield than the Mitchell-Lewis-Smith-Hill plus rotations thus far

I think the writing off of Gunston shows just how tragically short the average foot fan's attention span is.

We've also played him mostly out of the forward line this year. The only time he's played a full game up forward (last week) he kicked more than Tom Lynch and Peter Wright combined against a backline full of kids.

 

[Pessimistic]

Sicily has been dropped twice this year from a team that is 2nd last on the ladder. O'Brien has been on your list for almost 5 years and has done stuff all. Not a lot to write home about there.

I'm thinking at the same game milestones. He will be the equvalent of your guy Daniher - same age less senior game time
Whether you think that is nothing write home about is another thing

 

[Pessimistic]

That's probably more accurate.

Thing is every side in the league at least has some good players and youngsters with potential. Even in our worst times we have had good players. It's about how many good players and potential good players to everyone else, and on that I think they rank close to last.

Like many have been saying it will be interesting what approach they take over the next few years. I dare say the plan isn't to abandon the draft and focus on free agents to get them back into flag contention.

Hawks were still around the mark 92-93, may of even won again in 92 if they got over the eagles at subiaco in the first final. That era of hawthorn is probably similar to where Geelong are now, some superstars carrying them along but not much coming through.

Had we had a stable financial club like now back in 93 could have easily improved that list into a very good one. 1991 premiership team was a good deal younger than the 2015 one. Yet the younger one was too old too slow too good

 

[Pessimistic]

That's why I posted the picture of Benny McGlynn. Often you just don't know what will happen

 

[perplexed]

So the list is in better shape now. Maybe less a couple of young potential champions (potentially)

I'd say the admin now produces at least 50% better outcomes for a given raw talent than in 2005
The fitness staff are the same Ratten remains. Newman is still unbeaten at box hill despite hawthorn raiding its talent. No reason to be gloomy

Also Hawks fans were equally deluded about our chances through 2008. No one gave us a hope. Maybe even less hope than port 2007

We believed. Oh how we believed

You aren't living up to your name

 

[magut]

75 pages on hawthorns list, what did I miss?

 

[Jobe Watson]

Sicily has a tonne of talent but needs an attitude alignment every now and then. What I said is still true - for a guy his age to kick has many goals as he did in 2016 is impressive. He has talent. The question was "of the young guys who looks like they could be more than a role player" Sicily is a clear example.

I would have agreed with you last year on O'Brien - but if you've watched him this year you will see a guy that definitely looks like he will be more than a role player.

Question - how many games at senior level do give a player before you write them off as being decent? We all know young/inexperienced players are up and down, but when is the write off point?

Maybe my eyes were playing tricks, but having read your board a few times this year I could have sworn I saw a number of your supporters calling for the club to use Sicily as trade bait at the end of the season. It's a shame that at 22 years old with the opportunity to lock down a spot in a rebuilding team that he hasn't got his shit together. Was quite impressive last year but hasn't gone on with it this season.

I haven't seen enough of O'Brien to really comment on his future prospects, but at 23 years old he'd want to get cracking. I see he's played a couple of good games this year; hopefully he keeps it up. But 24 games in 5 seasons isn't much to write home about, and you could understand why non-Hawks supporters wouldn't be paying much attention to him yet.

 

[Blue1980]

Had we had a stable financial club like now back in 93 could have easily improved that list into a very good one. 1991 premiership team was a good deal younger than the 2015 one. Yet the younger one was too old too slow too good

Yeah a fair bit of hubris back then, no way known your off field situation will get that dire you would think.

Lots of crap trades and losing players the calibre of Allan and jarman didn't help. Other factors as well, not embracing the draft, bad administration, complacency etc.

Not all the same factors apply now, but a similar on field downturn or one even more severe, at least short term is definitely possible, and in my view likely. This year may produce 8-9 wins at best, next year maybe 4-5 wins.

After that it will depend on how they recruit.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

That's why I posted the picture of Benny McGlynn. Often you just don't know what will happen

That's the thing - we can post pictures of benny mcglynn, Xavier Ellis, Roughead or frankin in their early games - but without seeing them play ~ 50 games you can't say they're shit youth, it's just stupid.

Like Langford - he's played 56 games and doesn't look like he'll take the next step. Billy hartung another that has now clocked over 50 games and hasn't improved his decision making or disposal.

O’Brien and Sicily have only played 58 games between them. We will see less ups and downs from them next year when they get closer to fifty and we know what their regular form is. But there's some good signs already from both of these guys.

 

[Jobe Watson]

I think the writing off of Gunston shows just how tragically short the average foot fan's attention span is.

We've also played him mostly out of the forward line this year. The only time he's played a full game up forward (last week) he kicked more than Tom Lynch and Peter Wright combined against a backline full of kids.

Daniher was a slow burner initially, as you would expect a gangly, uncoordinated young key forward to be. He's stepped up in the last 2 seasons to now be an arguable top 5 key forward and All-Australian contender.

O'Brien and Daniher are the same age. Yes Daniher has played more games, but there's probably a reason for that. Big call to say that O'Brien will get to Joe's level within the next 40-45 games.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

75 pages on hawthorns list, what did I miss?

We're folding tomorrow.

 

[westking]

Man, you're just a troll.

No, its pretty spot. Im thinking these Harwthon posters are the trolls actually.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Maybe my eyes were playing tricks, but having read your board a few times this year I could have sworn I saw a number of your supporters calling for the club to use Sicily as trade bait at the end of the season. It's a shame that at 22 years old with the opportunity to lock down a spot in a rebuilding team that he hasn't got his shit together. Was quite impressive last year but hasn't gone on with it this season.

I haven't seen enough of O'Brien to really comment on his future prospects, but at 23 years old he'd want to get cracking. I see he's played a couple of good games this year; hopefully he keeps it up. But 24 games in 5 seasons isn't much to write home about, and you could understand why non-Hawks supporters wouldn't be paying much attention to him yet.

there was a suggestion that Carlton was chasing Sicily hard last year and he's been spoken of as potential trade bait by posters on our board exploring ways to get into the first round somehow. He has a tendency to drop his bundle when things aren't going his way, and our hyper careful gameplan since round 6 makes for a lot of frustration as a forward.

However, Clarko is trying to work him as a rebounding defender - which didn't work the first time we tried it but he was dropped and worked his way back into the team, and when he played off a back flank in our last game he completely changed our ability to transition. It was awesome to watch. He's definitely got some awesome tools in his kit bag.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Daniher was a slow burner initially, as you would expect a gangly, uncoordinated young key forward to be. He's stepped up in the last 2 seasons to now be an arguable top 5 key forward and All-Australian contender.

O'Brien and Daniher are the same age. Yes Daniher has played more games, but there's probably a reason for that. Big call to say that O'Brien will get to Joe's level within the next 40-45 games.

Well I didn't make the comparison to daniher but I would say he's played more games because he didn't have to compete with Roughead and Gunston for key forward roles.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Well I didn't make the comparison to daniher but I would say he's played more games because he didn't have to compete with Roughead and Gunston for key forward roles.

I'm certain Daniher, a top 10 draft pick widely regarded as one of the best players of his draft year, would have found a way into that Hawthorn team quicker than O'Brien has, and if Hawthorn had drafted him (*shudder*) he'd be a lot further along than O'Brien currently is.

 

[SA HAWK]

I'm certain Daniher, a top 10 draft pick widely regarded as one of the best players of his draft year, would have found a way into that Hawthorn team quicker than O'Brien has, and if Hawthorn had drafted him (*shudder*) he'd be a lot further along than O'Brien currently is.

O'Brien may turn out to be a player but he won't get near Daniher.

 

[Pessimistic]

Daniher was a slow burner initially, as you would expect a gangly, uncoordinated young key forward to be. He's stepped up in the last 2 seasons to now be an arguable top 5 key forward and All-Australian contender.

O'Brien and Daniher are the same age. Yes Daniher has played more games, but there's probably a reason for that. Big call to say that O'Brien will get to Joe's level within the next 40-45 games.

A reason? Politeness prevents me for saying it. Essendon probably would have played him more. He's taken longer to develop physically
Obrien will be a couple of seasons behind Joe even in a couple of years time if all goes well for both

 

[Jobe Watson]

A reason? Politeness prevents me for saying it. Essendon probably would have played him more. He's taken longer to develop physically
Obrien will be a couple of seasons behind Joe even in a couple of years time if all goes well for both

Do you think that if you swapped Joe and O'Brien, and Essendon drafted O'Brien while Hawthorn drafted Joe, that O'Brien would have played 82 games, would be 2nd in the Coleman and in All-Australian calculations in his 5th season? You must rate him very highly if the answer is yes.

No offence to O'Brien, but I think Daniher is and always will be a few levels above him as a player. I also don't think O'Brien would have played as many games for us as Daniher has.

 

[Pessimistic]

Do you think that if you swapped Joe and O'Brien, and Essendon drafted O'Brien while Hawthorn drafted Joe, that O'Brien would have played 82 games, would be 2nd in the Coleman and in All-Australian calculations in his 5th season? You must rate him very highly if the answer is yes.

No offence to O'Brien, but I think Daniher is and always will be a few levels above him as a player. I also don't think O'Brien would have played as many games for us as Joe has.

I did say he's taken longer than even Daniher to develop physically he would have been played a lot more though

 

[tesla1962]

I see the club has wheeled out Hodgey now to help with the softening up process to get the fans used to the probability that they won't see O'Meara again this year. I would rather he miss 20 games and play eight years says Hodge. How can even the most naive fan see this whole narrative as anything else other than the club trying to manage what it's known for some time by gradually pushing back the timelines. I reckon all clubs do it, but really important for the hawks given their high proportion of band wagoners.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-16/hodge-backs-omeara-over-the-long-term

 

[Pessimistic]

Yawn

 

[wagstaff]

I see the club has wheeled out Hodgey now to help with the softening up process to get the fans used to the probability they won't O'Meara again this year. I would rather he miss 20 games and play eight years says Hodge. How can even the most naive fan see this whole narrative as anything but the club trying to manage what it's known for some time by gradually pushing back the timelines. I reckon all clubs do it, but really important for the hawks given their high proportion of band wagoners.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-16/hodge-backs-omeara-over-the-long-term

Yeah, long odds now that O'Meara will return this year after reading those quotes.

 

[Pessimistic]

I see the club has wheeled out Hodgey now to help with the softening up process to get the fans used to the probability they won't O'Meara again this year. I would rather he miss 20 games and play eight years says Hodge. How can even the most naive fan see this whole narrative as anything but the club trying to manage what it's known for some time by gradually pushing back the timelines. I reckon all clubs do it, but really important for the hawks given their high proportion of band wagoners.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-16/hodge-backs-omeara-over-the-long-term

Hey. We're not among the clubs who thought planning to just make finals as a high water mark was the way to go to keep their jobs

 

[doppleganger]

there was a suggestion that Carlton was chasing Sicily hard last year and he's been spoken of as potential trade bait by posters on our board exploring ways to get into the first round somehow.

Bahahaha, surely part of the how bout we bundle together three of our battlers and get back a good pick proposition that seem to dominate trade week.