Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[TimmeT]

It's not just reasonable wages but reasonable conditions. This work needs to be done professionally and safely. Let it be the case.

As for Victoria's financial position, with a surplus budget, I can't see too many loans being taken out..or are you just reading that from the Liberal Daily from Southbank?

Actually the pay and conditions were equally as reasonable from the non union controlled organisations and would have also been done professionally and safely.

Also just because the state is having a surplus now doesn't mean that there is any logic or benefit in spending money on inflated expenses for the sake of it.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Either you're just playing the partisan game or you're dumb but either way how is it money well spent if there are options available to pay reasonable wages like what was going to happen on EW Link?

I don't know how you think the labour industry works, but I can't see why EW Link would be any different to any other major project in Victoria at the moment. Any labour hire company that's accredited to pay minimum award rates by the ABCC will generally pay to the CFMEU EBA rate. 50% of the labour hire force will be unionised regardless of which government is in, so good luck trying to refuse to pay your labourers what their FairWork-approved EBA entitles them to.

The real reason wage costs blow out is because all major projects now work around the clock and any hours outside of 7 to 330 is paid between 1.5 and 2 times the base rate. Without overtime, a labourer would be lucky to make $70k per year.

 

[Pessimistic]

There is a philosophical difference emerging between the majors in population planning.

Both agree the extreme growth rate of Melbourne cannot be totally addressed by transport infrastructure. In fact it’s all infrastructure. Work schools tertiary hospitals retail prisons even

Both agree that more population and activity in urban centres (20 minute city) and more decentralising to regional Victoria

The ALP has more priority on the former the Coalition on the latter

Personally I’d say most mebburnians don’t want to live in the regions, or they’d be there already. Planning may eventually bring a good level of amenity to these areas, but not in their or their kids lifetimes.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

There is a philosophical difference emerging between the majors in population planning.

Both agree the extreme growth rate of Melbourne cannot be totally addressed by transport infrastructure. In fact it’s all infrastructure. Work schools tertiary hospitals retail prisons even

Both agree that more population and activity in urban centres (20 minute city) and more decentralising to regional Victoria

The ALP has more priority on the former the Coalition on the latter

Personally I’d say most mebburnians don’t want to live in the regions, or they’d be there already. Planning may eventually bring a good level of amenity to these areas, but not in their or their kids lifetimes.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. Good investment in the regional centres will give melbournians a reason to want to live in the regions aside from cheap land. Good investment in fast, regular public transport between Ballarat/Bendigo/Warragul/Geelong and Melbourne will make it more attractive for households to live in a regional centre if one partner needs to travel to Melbourne each day.

Personally I think it's a better idea than trying to make high density apartment living more attractive. I have fundamental problems with the nature of living with kids somewhere with no immediate access to outdoor space. Real outdoor space, not a courtyard on the roof.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think the idea is not to have increasing numbers commute to central melbourne each day. It’s unsustainable in the short term and madness in the long

 

[Fire]

The only way to decentralise Melbourne is through rail infrastructure. There's no point in talking about employment hubs like Dandenong if only people living by one specific train line can access it. It's a terrible place to locate large buisinesses.

All rail currently leads to the city so of course that's where the jobs are. The only way to break gridlock is to build mass transport to places other than the city.

Going forward, more professionals will either work from home or access transport outside of peak, but that will only help alleviate the problem as the population booms. It won't solve it.

Also, what is with these idiotic population projections? I keep reading 8 million by 2050. The established trend will have us there by 2040. Well be knocking on 10 million by 2050.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

The only way to decentralise Melbourne is through rail infrastructure. There's no point in talking about employment hubs like Dandenong if only people living by one specific train line can access it. It's a terrible place to locate large businesses.

Whilst Dandenong is only accessible by 1 (really 2 (3 if you include the Country service)) train lines it is also serviced by 2/3 freeway/tollways (Monash, Sth Gippsland and Eastlink) and a number of major highway (Princes, Sth Gippsland, Dandy Mountain Highway (Frankston-Dandy and Stud Rds). It's within half an hour of most of Melbourne's population and reasonably accessible to regional Victoria east of the city.

 

[Pessimistic]

The only way to decentralise Melbourne is through rail infrastructure. There's no point in talking about employment hubs like Dandenong if only people living by one specific train line can access it. It's a terrible place to locate large buisinesses.

All rail currently leads to the city so of course that's where the jobs are. The only way to break gridlock is to build mass transport to places other than the city.

Going forward, more professionals will either work from home or access transport outside of peak, but that will only help alleviate the problem as the population booms. It won't solve it.

Also, what is with these idiotic population projections? I keep reading 8 million by 2050. The established trend will have us there by 2040. Well be knocking on 10 million by 2050.

Dandenong was in the last iteration of business centers but the ring rail seems to accept that universities etc would make better hubs where agile business and other activity could flourish.

whats often forgotten is even if businesses and professionals travel centrally less often, freight delivery will increase, this is happening already. efficient connected road links are part of the picture. freight by rail is not practical, and would only delay passenger rail movement.

 

[Fire]

Whilst Dandenong is only accessible by 1 (really 2 (3 if you include the Country service)) train lines it is also serviced by 2/3 freeway/tollways (Monash, Sth Gippsland and Eastlink) and a number of major highway (Princes, Sth Gippsland, Dandy Mountain Highway (Frankston-Dandy and Stud Rds). It's within half an hour of most of Melbourne's population and reasonably accessible to regional Victoria east of the city.

The road access is already beyond capacity in peak times. The half hour radius is a hell of a lot smaller than you're quoting. Again, the only way to make this or any other hub accessible is through trains.

 

[Fire]

whats often forgotten is even if businesses and professionals travel centrally less often, freight delivery will increase, this is happening already. efficient connected road links are part of the picture. freight by rail is not practical, and would only delay passenger rail movement.

Exactly. So its importaint to get as many commuters off the roads as possible to maximise freight access. It a ll comes back to trains.

 

[Rob R]

Trains are a big part of it which the current government has taken some steps.to address but it would be nice if they took the Federal govt to task for how it is contributing (State Libs are clearly worse at this) and demand a cut to immigration and actually protest when the Feds move 100s of jobs from.the outer suburbs to the CBD as Defence has been openly doing with not a whisper of concern being expressed by either party.

 

[Benny78]

Hopefully the ALP's offices will be raided again by Police owned by the state and not by Murdoch. Hopefully it coincides perfectly with the election too.

Last time I checked we pay them and they do our bidding not his.

 

[Contra Mundum]

I don't know how you think the labour industry works, but I can't see why EW Link would be any different to any other major project in Victoria at the moment. Any labour hire company that's accredited to pay minimum award rates by the ABCC will generally pay to the CFMEU EBA rate. 50% of the labour hire force will be unionised regardless of which government is in, so good luck trying to refuse to pay your labourers what their FairWork-approved EBA entitles them to.

The real reason wage costs blow out is because all major projects now work around the clock and any hours outside of 7 to 330 is paid between 1.5 and 2 times the base rate. Without overtime, a labourer would be lucky to make $70k per year.

How dare you Swoon with your facts and your logical arguments!

 

[Pessimistic]

The rationalist heads among us have squashed the usual practice of building public infrastructure with in times less buoyant economy. So costs are higher and blaming the unions is a scapegoat. Costs become higher when the pipeline is big for example trying to catch up from a few years of neglect.

Make no mistake infrastructure firms reorganised out of Victoria when ted was faffing about. Let’s hope next change of government realistic rather than rationalist heads prevail. I know both sides of politics can have the finger pointed at them

 

[pazza]

Whilst Dandenong is only accessible by 1 (really 2 (3 if you include the Country service)) train lines it is also serviced by 2/3 freeway/tollways (Monash, Sth Gippsland and Eastlink) and a number of major highway (Princes, Sth Gippsland, Dandy Mountain Highway (Frankston-Dandy and Stud Rds). It's within half an hour of most of Melbourne's population and reasonably accessible to regional Victoria east of the city.

It will be to the west.

The technology precinct in East Werribee (yeah it will be a new suburb).

Already has 2 hospitals, Victoria University (2 campuses), a select entry high school (Suzanne Cory), Melbourne University Veterinary School in place. More is expected within no matter of time. Closest train station? Hoppers Crossing.

 

[Pessimistic]

Swappers

 

[TimmeT]

I don't know how you think the labour industry works, but I can't see why EW Link would be any different to any other major project in Victoria at the moment. Any labour hire company that's accredited to pay minimum award rates by the ABCC will generally pay to the CFMEU EBA rate. 50% of the labour hire force will be unionised regardless of which government is in, so good luck trying to refuse to pay your labourers what their FairWork-approved EBA entitles them to.

The real reason wage costs blow out is because all major projects now work around the clock and any hours outside of 7 to 330 is paid between 1.5 and 2 times the base rate. Without overtime, a labourer would be lucky to make $70k per year.

Actually no. The CFMEU was angry because the construction code implemented would have validly frozen out their enterprise agreements and thus taken away their abilities and influences under it. There had been research done which supported the notion that the CFMEU Enterprise agreement would have helped costs increase by 20%-34%.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Actually no. The CFMEU was angry because the construction code implemented would have validly frozen out their enterprise agreements and thus taken away their abilities and influences under it. There had been research done which supported the notion that the CFMEU Enterprise agreement would have helped costs increase by 20%-34%.

The government has no power over what contractors pay their subcontractors. The award rate for construction is not 20-34% lower than the EBA so what you're suggesting is paying people well below what their entitled to, which is broadly illegal.
Even this were true (which it's not), it's a dumb approach. There is a finite amount of labour in the city and there need to be some incentive to get the right people working on major jobs. Why bust your ass on 12 hour days when you can bludge on the subdivisions? No labour hire contractor will want to work for you.
I'm amazed that you think people will just work for you no matter the conditions because they have no choice. Join us in the real world compadre.

 

[TimmeT]

The government has no power over what contractors pay their subcontractors. The award rate for construction is not 20-34% lower than the EBA so what you're suggesting is paying people well below what their entitled to, which is broadly illegal.
Even this were true (which it's not), it's a dumb approach. There is a finite amount of labour in the city and there need to be some incentive to get the right people working on major jobs. Why bust your ass on 12 hour days when you can bludge on the subdivisions? No labour hire contractor will want to work for you.
I'm amazed that you think people will just work for you no matter the conditions because they have no choice. Join us in the real world compadre.

The award rate isn't the issue though and I know very well the government cannot alter it. The issue is the way the union movement can influence factors to increase the costs incurred by companies awarded the building of a project through their tactics.

This piece highlights some excellent examples of this occurring in practice with the Delsa plant being a fine example

https://www.selfemployedaustralia.c...ommission-Infrastructure-Inquiry-Feb-2014.pdf.

Primary issue CFMEU was having with the code was the fact that it would severely hinder the ability for them to influence what went on at the site and subsequently they wouldn't be able to delay the project like they have done before.

 

[Pessimistic]

So under ‘CMFEU Dan’ projects are routinely delayed?

Not really most current projects are real success stories (but you won’t read that in a Murdoch rag)

Infrastructure wise Victoria is in a very good place at the moment. If you are confident Guy could be elected and just take it over seamlessly then go right ahead. Then we really will be in a great place, seamless changeovers.

But it’s not a reason at all to think the current govt should be voted out

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

The award rate isn't the issue though and I know very well the government cannot alter it. The issue is the way the union movement can influence factors to increase the costs incurred by companies awarded the building of a project through their tactics.

This piece highlights some excellent examples of this occurring in practice with the Delsa plant being a fine example

https://www.selfemployedaustralia.c...ommission-Infrastructure-Inquiry-Feb-2014.pdf.

Primary issue CFMEU was having with the code was the fact that it would severely hinder the ability for them to influence what went on at the site and subsequently they wouldn't be able to delay the project like they have done before.

So is this about wages or is this about union delays to a project? You started talking about the government agreeing to big union wages and now you're talking about costs incurred to contractors (not the taxpayer, but the contractor) because of union activities. I'm not sure where we're going with this.

Look, as a contractor I hate unions as much as anybody primarily because I'm one of the poor campaigners that's most often on the receiving of their death threats and what not, but seeing as the the desal debacle unfolded under a double federal and state liberal government, it doesn't give much support to the assertion that the EW Link would have been better because the Liberals were looking after it. The union movement is firmly ingrained into the construction industry because of how dangerous most construction workplaces are and this doesn't change based on which government is in power.

 

[go you pups]

Is it just me, or is Maffew just copying Labor pledges at the moment yet the media seem to be talking his pledges up as original ideas?

Planning for a Point Cook police station apparently was already in the pipeline back in May, said Jill Hennessey at the time, yet Ch7/HUN etc are creaming themselves over Maffews announcement this week.

Labor talks up Autism funding three weeks ago, Maffew talks up Autism funding over the last week...

 

[TimmeT]

So is this about wages or is this about union delays to a project? You started talking about the government agreeing to big union wages and now you're talking about costs incurred to contractors (not the taxpayer, but the contractor) because of union activities. I'm not sure where we're going with this.

Look, as a contractor I hate unions as much as anybody primarily because I'm one of the poor campaigners that's most often on the receiving of their death threats and what not, but seeing as the the desal debacle unfolded under a double federal and state liberal government, it doesn't give much support to the assertion that the EW Link would have been better because the Liberals were looking after it. The union movement is firmly ingrained into the construction industry because of how dangerous most construction workplaces are and this doesn't change based on which government is in power.

The Desal debarcle commenced under the Bracks government and at the very end of the Howard. The union movement may be ingrained due to the dangerous environments yet incredibly ironically they are sometimes the ones who make workplaces more dangerous than they ought to be.

 

[Pessimistic]

If we judge Andrews on Bracks performance, and Guy on Baillieus performance, Dan still wins

What Andrews projects have been poor yet alone a debacle?

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

The Desal debarcle commenced under the Bracks government and at the very end of the Howard. The union movement may be ingrained due to the dangerous environments yet incredibly ironically they are sometimes the ones who make workplaces more dangerous than they ought to be.

Bracks signed the papers to approve funding. If the Libs had the powers to turn the unions into paper tigers like you claim, nothing would have stopped them from exercising said powers in any of the three years it took to build the plant.

But I like where this conversation is going, do tell how unions sometimes make workplaces more dangerous than they ought to be.