How Crow Can You Go? An Adelaide Football Club Saga

[Arr0w]

The numbers do mean something, I cannot remember the theory but it goes something along the lines of...

Good Process - Bad result : The process of the trade was good, just the result was bad. (Aka the players you selected were bad)
Good Process - Good result: The process of the trade was good and the result was good. (Aka the players were good)

Bad Process - Good result: Bad process of the trade, good result.
Bad Process - Bad result: Bad process of the trade, bad result.

The bad process, good result styled options are dangerous because it means you will likely make those same mistakes often because you got a good result from a bad process. (Share markets it often makes a lot more sense)


I think if we trade away pick 1/2 for pick 10/12 and Stocker... That is very close to being bad process, the hard part of this whole trade is the fact with the Stocker pick, we knew the player being selected.

Now if Adelaide with pick 1/2 select a player like Toumpas and with our pick 12 we get a players like Cripps... I don't think that proves our process was better. It just potentially proves our bad process gave a good result. If you were to repeat the same process multiple times, Adelaide should come out infront.

LM, at some stage you need to be aggressive with trading, the risk is higher, but so are the rewards

You also watch a fair bit of junior football, where would you rate Stocker in this draft class?

 

[Arr0w]

I'm looking at the trade outside of what Stocker ends up acheiving. Froma pure numbers basis it is a massive fail. We have handed the best kid in the country to Adelaide on a silver platter.

Let's have this conversation at the end of the year

 

[Jeremias]

I'm looking at the trade outside of what Stocker ends up acheiving. Froma pure numbers basis it is a massive fail. We have handed the best kid in the country to Adelaide on a silver platter.

If you also ignore the pick they gave us, we gave them a pick for free!

Except in the real world it doesn’t work that way.

Either judge the trade in its entirety or not at all. It’s laughable to ignore the biggest component of the trade when trying to assess it.

 

[Monkey King]

“How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened“ - Thomas Jefferson

This trade is a marathon not sprint. For anyone monitoring this week to week and getting upset by it, I suggest you put the cue in the rack and come back to it earliest round 22, and even that’s going early.

 

[DangerSloane]

If you also ignore the pick they gave us, we gave them a pick for free!

Except in the real world it doesn’t work that way.

Either judge the trade in its entirety or not at all. It’s laughable to ignore the biggest component of the trade when trying to assess it.

The biggest component of the trade is looking like your first pick in 2020.

Stocker (rated beyond the teens by all other clubs other than Carlton) will not be the big ticket item if you finish in the bottom 2.

 

[Jeremias]

The biggest component of the trade is looking like your first pick in 2020.

Stocker (rated beyond the teens by all other clubs other than Carlton) will not be the big ticket item if you finish in the bottom 2.

Laughable.

The single biggest component of this trade for Carlton is Liam Stocker.

As I have said countless times, if he develops into the player we clearly think he may, we won’t care about the puck downgrade used to bring him into the club.

As for where 17 other clubs rated him, let’s not pretend you have any idea about that.

Carlton is the only club who has said where they rated Stocker.

As for the other clubs, the only thing we know is he was rated behind the player each club took at their selection.

It’s possible every club rated him a top 10 selection.

 

[Big Red is back]

As opposed to a pessimist's shortsightedness?

If the thread is too much for some to handle, they should avoid it

Reality is unless Stocker ends up being as good as the pick 1 or 2 it will be a Holwer of a selection. Being realistic the club would never have done the trade if they thought they would be giving up pick 1 or 2. We all know the club was expecting to finish much higher than 17/18.

 

[Big Red is back]

Laughable.

The single biggest component of this trade for Carlton is Liam Stocker.

As I have said countless times, if he develops into the player we clearly think he may, we won’t care about the puck downgrade used to bring him into the club.

As for where 17 other clubs rated him, let’s not pretend you have any idea about that.

Carlton is the only club who has said where they rated Stocker.

As for the other clubs, the only thing we know is he was rated behind the player each club took at their selection.

It’s possible every club rated him a top 10 selection.

Pretty confident nobody else did. Reality is they took a massive risk and if pays off kudos, but giving up pick 1 or 2 looks very dangerous given we just got a freak in Walsh with pick 1.

 

[Monkey King]

Stocker (rated beyond the teens by all other clubs other than Carlton)

That you actually believe the available information tells us this shows that qualitative reasoning isn’t your strength.

 

[Jeremias]

Pretty confident nobody else did. Reality is they took a massive risk and if pays off kudos, but giving up pick 1 or 2 looks very dangerous given we just got a freak in Walsh with pick 1.

“Pretty confident nobody else did”.

Based on what?

Certainly not logic.

 

[DangerSloane]

That you actually believe the available information tells us this shows that qualitative reasoning isn’t your strength.

Right now there is little to no qualitative evidence.
The only evidence we have a substantial amount of is quantitative.

I'm wondering at what point will some CFC fans admit the trade was a mistake? It may not be, long way to go in the season, but come round 22 if ladder positions are how they currently are, will that be a point where you say it was an error?

 

[Arr0w]

Reality is unless Stocker ends up being as good as the pick 1 or 2 it will be a Holwer of a selection. Being realistic the club would never have done the trade if they thought they would be giving up pick 1 or 2. We all know the club was expecting to finish much higher than 17/18.

Pretty sure the season hasn't ended, so before we douse petrol and strike a match, let's see how it unfolds

 

[Arr0w]

Right now there is little to no qualitative evidence.
The only evidence we have a substantial amount of is quantitative.

I'm wondering at what point will some CFC fans admit the trade was a mistake?

I think a 3 weeks ago, many of your supporters were discussing similar outcomes, perhaps we will get a better indication as the season progresses.

This debate will be ongoing for 4 odd years, just like all the draft redo threads

 

[DangerSloane]

Laughable.

The single biggest component of this trade for Carlton is Liam Stocker.

As I have said countless times, if he develops into the player we clearly think he may, we won’t care about the puck downgrade used to bring him into the club.

As for where 17 other clubs rated him, let’s not pretend you have any idea about that.

Carlton is the only club who has said where they rated Stocker.

As for the other clubs, the only thing we know is he was rated behind the player each club took at their selection.

It’s possible every club rated him a top 10 selection.

How is that even possible though?

Well Adelaide had 2, Port had 3, Gold Coast had 3... there were a number of teams that picked multiple times before Stocker and still didn't take him.
So that's quite easy to prove.

How is the guy chosen in the teens as steak knives for a trade suddenly the big ticket?

The big ticket comes next year. You never know, the guy CFC pick with our pick might end up being better, but thats when the measure of the trade will be seen. Stocker is the most minor part of it.

 

[DangerSloane]

I think a 3 weeks ago, many of your supporters were discussing similar outcomes, perhaps we will get a better indication as the season progresses.

This debate will be ongoing for 4 odd years, just like all the draft redo threads

Absolutely. A few personel changes have done wonders.

I just think that CFC officials figured you'd be winning more games this year.
To be fair to them, been very competitive and lots of injuries, so not totally off-base.

 

[jezzajay]

70lethal if you want to quote me, show some character and wander in here and we can debate it.

Then we can discuss your claim of Gallucci being a better value pick compared to SPS, not to mention Fisher

He’d struggle to find a way to cross the road, let alone find his way in here and talk sense.

 

[DangerSloane]

He’d struggle to find a way to cross the road, let alone find his way in here and talk sense.

Oh cmon Jezza. That is a massive pot/kettle/black scenario.

 

[Arr0w]

Absolutely. A few personel changes have done wonders.

I just think that CFC officials figured you'd be winning more games this year.
To be fair to them, been very competitive and lots of injuries, so not totally off-base.

A couple of 1 goals losses hurt, but we have seen many times how momentum can swing. If we can regain that competitive nature quickly, surprises occur

Last year, Port was sitting comfortably in the 8 at round 12, then the wheels feel off. Lions had 1 win at round 14, yet won another 4 before the end of the season

 

[Alphonse_]

How is that even possible though?

Well Adelaide had 2, Port had 3, Gold Coast had 3... there were a number of teams that picked multiple times before Stocker and still didn't take him.
So that's quite easy to prove
How is the guy chosen in the teens as steak knives for a trade suddenly the big ticket?

The big ticket comes next year. You never know, the guy CFC pick with our pick might end up being better, but thats when the measure of the trade will be seen. Stocker is the most minor part of it.

Meh, we will just poach the kid you pick up with our pick in 2 yeara anyway. The Crows are a feeder club these days, that player retention rate

 

[DangerSloane]

A couple of 1 goals losses hurt, but we have seen many times how momentum can swing. If we can regain that competitive nature quickly, surprises occur

Last year, Port was sitting comfortably in the 8 at round 12, then the wheels feel off. Lions had 1 win at round 14, yet won another 4 before the end of the season

Absolutely.
The injuries have hurt, you'd prob have 2 wins minimum on the board if not for them.

 

[DangerSloane]

Meh, we will just poach the kid you pick up with our pick in 2 yeara anyway. The Crows are a feeder club these days, that player retention rate

This is your board, yes... but this is just pathetic.

Not just pathetic, but hilarious.

McGovern with his 7 touches per game must be burning a hole in your pocket?

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Stephen Silvagni needs to get sacked for doing this trade taking into account his 1st round draft record at GWS is also shockingly bad. We need some accountability at Carlton.

2011:
Pick 1: Patton (miss)
Pick 2: Coniglio (hit)
Pick 3: Dom Tyson (miss)
Pick 4: Hoskin-Elliot (miss)
Pick 5: Buntine (miss)
Pick 7: Haynes (hit)
Pick 9: Tomlinson (hit)
Pick 10: Sumner (miss)
Pick 11: Greene (hit)
Pick 13: Taylor Adams (hit)
Pick 14: Devon Smith (hit)

6 hits
5 misses

Very bad ratio of hits and misses.

2012:
Pick 1: Whitfield (hit)
Pick 2: O'Rouke (miss)
Pick 3: Plowman (miss)
Pick 12: Jaksch (miss)
Pick 14: Aidan Corr (miss)

1 hit
4 misses

Shocking performance from SOS in for the 2012 1st round draft picks.

2013
Pick 1: Tom Boyd (miss)
Pick 2: Kelly (hit)
Pick 14: McCarthy (miss)

2014
Pick 4: Pickett (miss)
Pick 6: Marchbank (miss)
Pick 7: Ahern (miss)

Again shocking performance from SOS in 2014. SOS drafted Pickett before De Goey (lol). No wonder GWS let him go to Carlton thereafter.

Pretty harsh ratings. And Tom Boyd is biggest hit of any player on that list.

 

[Broadside]

Pretty harsh ratings. And Tom Boyd is biggest hit of any player on that list.

Boyd probably deserved the Norm Smith but in terms of output he has had one good finals series. He is a miss.

What worries me is that a lot of the misses from GWS have been redrafted by us and miss again. I get that SOS had inside knowledge on their attributes but it's a fine line between getting a used bargain and redrafting players to vindicate the original decision.

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Boyd probably deserved the Norm Smith but in terms of output he has had one good finals series. He is a miss.

What worries me is that a lot of the misses from GWS have been redrafted by us and miss again. I get that SOS had inside knowledge on their attributes but it's a fine line between getting a used bargain and redrafting players to vindicate the original decision.

Without Boyd, Doggies don’t even make the GF
Without Boyd the Doggies are still in drought.

I’d rather have a play who wins us a flag than a perennial All Australian who can’t take us to the promised land

 

[PumpyChowdown]

This is beginning to look like an unmitigated disaster. With our current injury woes, coupled with our non-existent structure and system on field, I'm struggling to see how we can win enough games to climb off the bottom of the ladder. Suns are already two games in front of us and I'd expect them to win one or two more games. The Swans and Melbourne are too good to stay anchored to the foot of the table.

Realistically the Suns are the only team that is as bad as or worse than us and as stated, I just don't think we can haul them in. Unless something dramatic happens to us on the field this year, it's another spoon, for which we'll receive pic 10 - 12ish.

Very, very bleak times ahead.