List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

[lethalselbow]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/four-points-hawks-feeling-gravity-s-pull-20190505-p51kb0.html

The Age having a bite at the Hawks too. Warranted. (Apologies if already posted. Sure the afl.com.au site has been at it too... lol)

 

[Jack Gun Cyril Stun]

Aren't Walker and Kozi in and off the injury list, currently. Need an uninjured game or two before you bring them in.

You're a harsh critic to have a crack at the 2016 going for the 4-peat. Sheesh!

If rough stayed healthy we win 2016 too or at worst make GF.

 

[Gene Simmons]

I think we will be fare welling at least 3 of Puoplo, Roughy, Burgoyne, Birchall, Shoenmakers at seasons end.

Receive our 1st Top 10 pick in over a decade.

Sign up another free agent, preference of what we need:
1) midfielder
2) KPD
3) KPF

 

[Spursfan]

I think we will be fare welling at least 3 of Puoplo, Roughy, Burgoyne, Birchall, Shoenmakers at seasons end.

Receive our 1st Top 10 pick in over a decade.

Sign up another free agent, preference of what we need:
1) midfielder
2) KPD
3) KDP

is that mid/KPD/KPF ? Agree at least 3 of those 5 will be exited could be all 5 depending on how the year plays out

 

[TheFourPillars]

Our senior players let us down in 2018? Where we made top 4? There are a lot of ppl making knee jerk reactions. The plan is in place we will follow it through we will of course have to refer to plan b and plan c if plan a doesnt work. However why would we give up on plan a

 

[TBoyleSuperstar]

every year for the past 4 years has been the same

step 1 - we back in our veterans
step 2 - they let us down
step 3 - we blood a handful of young talent
step 4 - the young talent revitalises us to a point we make finals
step 5 - we lose finals

for 4 years the same exact things happen or we dont make finals, during this time we have unearthed Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel (Burton as well) to a lesser extent Howe and Morrison.

ive tried being positive so far this season, but im tired of what is happening, if it was up to me i would play for the future from right now

B: Hardwick, Brand, Mirra
HB: Henderson, Sicily, Impey

C: Scully, Shiels, Morrison
R: McEvoy, JOM, Worpel

HF: Wingard, Gunston, Walker
F: Breust, Lewis, Ross

INT: Scrimshaw, Koschitzke, Cousins, Minchington

EMER: Miles, Jones, Moore

now IF you are playing players that are going to play in our next premiership, this is how you do it.

Personally, I reckon TOB has shown more in defence than both Brand and Mirra. Also, your side lacks Dylan Moore.

But we do need to continue to blood some kids and see where they are at. We did this in 2017, and we found Blake Hardwick and Harry Morrison and James Sicily really came to the fore

 

[lethalselbow]

Our senior players let us down in 2018? Where we made top 4? There are a lot of ppl making knee jerk reactions. The plan is in place we will follow it through we will of course have to refer to plan b and plan c if plan a doesnt work. However why would we give up on plan a

100%

A lot of revision of history going on. Needs to be called out where it occurs as a few are shooting from the hip and throwing out pure garbage to back their theories on 2019.

 

[KermitJagger]

We're one of the few sides this year that hasn't been overtly bent over and spanked. I'm more concerned about our ability to play with a fluent game plan at the moment, more than I am with our list management.

 

[TheFourPillars]

In any rebuild there will be up and down years. We are going through a rebuild just using our draft picks as collateral. It doesnt take much for things to go astray for a year but you must be steadfast stick to your guns. Geelong did this with Mark Thompson. You must believe in any plan to follow it through

Plans made by the club are deliberate and take time. You dont throw that plan out just because we have had bad years in between the good its a work in progress. Anyway i have said my piece carry on

 

[Nugett]

I agree that our list needs a clean up. The last time we really cleaned out our list was at the end of 2009 and 2010. At the time I thought it was a ruthless cull, but in hindsight, it is what was needed at the time to project us forward.
Looking at the 2019 list there is a lot of players unsigned at this stage, I expect it to change as the year goes on, but I can see Clarko and Wright moving on 6-7 players at the end of the year. So going through these players who’s contracts are up at the end of the year, who I think might stay or go.

CJ - keep developmental player, too early to know. 2020 depth
Glass - keep has potential still learning the game. 2020 depth
Greaves - keep first year player. Haven’t seen him play so can’t make a judgement.
Minchington - keep give him another year to see how he develops, might become a useful replacement 2020 depth.
Mirra - delist while being a handy depth player, he is 28 years of age and can’t see him developing past being a depth player.
Moore - keep. 19 years old, does go hot and cold, still developing. 2020 depth
Birchall retire. It’s time for Birch to look after his knees, thanks for the premierships.
Jones - haven’t seen him play, hard to judge
Ross - as above
Cousins - keep. Has the makings of a solid depth player. Has potential to become a solid role player in the 22. If offered a late 2nd round pick to mid 3rd round pick would take it. 2020 potential trade bait, solid depth player
Frawley - offer an extra year, no immediate back up at this stage.
Roughead - same as Frawley
Ceglar - trade/delist - great depth player/back up ruckman. Potential 3rd rounder
Pittonet - keep 2 year contract, has potential to be reliable in the ruck, still has issues to work on mainly endurance.
Reeves - keep. Too early to know.
Puopolo - retire or free agent his choice. Love the Pops, still playing reasonably, but time is catching up.
Shoenmakers - delist/Free agent. It’s time for him to move on, can no longer be considered depth.
Henderson - has earnt a 1 year extension.
Burgoyne - retire as an all time great.
Miles - trade if not keep for another year. Solid depth player, he really needs to smash the door down to announce himself.
O’Brien - trade/delist. If we can get something for him, trade for him. Has the rest of this year to prove that he belongs at this level. If he can hold his position, and play solidly for the rest of the year, he might be worth keeping for an extra year. If not, it’s timeto cut our losses.
Moore - keep, solid depth, has potential to be a 22 player.
Mitchell - keep, hopefully for a 5 year deal would be awesome. Can name his price!
Golds - keep too early to tell at this stage of his career.
Mohr - keep for an extra year as a potential back up for Frawley. Should be delisted at the end of 2020.

Of the 2020 class we have:
McEvoy - sign for another year
Stratton - sign for another year
Nash - keep. Needs to work on his goal kicking and game awareness has the potential to be a solid B+ player.
Howe - keep, solid depth player to starting 22. Would trade for the right price though.
Morrison - keep, has potential to become a future starting 22.
Scrimshaw keep has the makings of becoming elite. I thought it was a mistake in resting him this week, as he has been a revelation down back in the games he has played.
Koschitzke - haven’t seen him play, so won’t make a judgement.
Sicily - keep, would love to give him a contract extension this year. Already elite.
Brand - has this year and next to improve. Would trade for the right price. Currently 2nd round to 3rd round pick.
Impey - keep, solid starting 22, gets better with each game
Walker- haven’t seen him play, so will reserve judgement at this stage.
Lewis - huge potential to replace Roughead when Roughead retires. Keep.
Hanrahan - havn’t seen him play.
Smith- still think he has another 2-3 years left. Elite runner.

So from 2019 from our current list, who I think should be moved on are:
Mirra, Ceglar, Birchall, Puopolo, Burgoyne, shoenmakers and O’Brien. Possible players up for trade Miles and Cousins.

From 2020 the list reads as follows:
Roughead and Mohr. Potential Depending on circumstances Frawley, Brand.

What I think we currently need is a kpd to replace Frawley. A kpf to replace Roughead and help develop Lewis who still has a couple of years to go. Lastly a midfielder, as we are still 1 short of a quality midfielder.

Free agents coming up, that I’d like us to target. Day Suns (2019), Conigilo GWS (2019), Thomlison GWS (2019), Crouch Crows (2020), Patton GWS (2020), Cameron (2020), Grundy Magpies (2020) and Whitfield GWS (2020).

Players that are not free agents in the next 2 years.
Brodie Suns (2020), Finlayson GWS (2020) and McDonald Demons (2020).

From these lists you have KPD’s in Day, Finlayson and McDonald.
KPF are Day, Patton and Cameron.
Midfielders are Conigilio, Thomlison, Crouch, Grundy(Ruck), Whitfield(HBF to midfield), Crouch and Brodie.

Sam Day is the player I’m most interested in, as he has the ability to play both defender and forward. After that it would be Finlayson followed by McDonald. Both of whom we would have to trade for.

Patton is the forward most of interest to me. I think he is highly gettable this year for a 3rd round pick, with a 4th or 5th coming back. As GWS will know that if he leaves the following year the most they will be an end of 4th round compensation pick due to his knee issues. Cameron would be my next target, would be the asking price, which could hurt our list moving forward with a hefty contract.

Midfield Cogs is obviously the choice here, with Thomlison as 2nd option if Cogs falls through. Crouch would be my next target, if both Cogs and Thomlison decline. Truthfully I rate Crouch above Thomlison, it’s just the way the free agents work out. Whitfield is another want, regardless of who we get in terms of Cogs Thomlison and Crouch. He should be our prime target in 2020. Grundy I would only want, if Pittonet doesn’t develop as he should in the next couple of years. Brodie would make a fine addition as a depth player at this stage, should be a 3rd to 4th round pick.

So I would like to see Day and Cogs as FA’s in 2019, with Patton and Brodie traded in for a 3rd and 4th round pick, with Whitfield as a FA in 2020.

I would also like to see us trade aggressively to upgrade our first round pick this year. If we can get a top 7 pick and a late 1st round pick by trading our first round next year and our second round, I think it would be a massive win for the club. It just may mean we have to be ruthless in trading out players to improve our later picks.

Sorry for the ridiculously long post. Seriously we don’t need to lose in order to improve. we just need to be more creative and aggressive to improve.

 

[SA HAWK]

We're one of the few sides this year that hasn't been overtly bent over and spanked. I'm more concerned about our ability to play with a fluent game plan at the moment, more than I am with our list management.

We have had a pretty soft draw with the exception of Geelong if we had gotten belted by any of the other teams we have played you would be very worried.

 

[Mercy Seat]

"Bottoming out" means finishing near the bottom. How many years isn't implied in the term.

I think this is where this thread goes wrong. In my mind Bottoming Out is trading out senior players with currency and rebuilding the list with draft picks from finishing at the lower end for at least a couple of years.

I wouldn't call having one bad year ala Pies, Eagles as "bottoming out" at all. There has to be a consicous decision to do it and strategically move towards it in terms of list management.

If it's just about hanging onto this year's draft pick then we have about 3 other threads that discuss this.

 

[Gene Simmons]

is that mid/KPD/KPF ? Agree at least 3 of those 5 will be exited could be all 5 depending on how the year plays out

Oops..thanks for pointing that out

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

I think this is where this thread goes wrong. In my mind Bottoming Out is trading out senior players with currency and rebuilding the list with draft picks from finishing at the lower end for at least a couple of years.

I wouldn't call having one bad year ala Pies, Eagles as "bottoming out" at all. There has to be a consicous decision to do it and strategically move towards it in terms of list management.

If it's just about hanging onto this year's draft pick then we have about 3 other threads that discuss this.

Agree.

We need a strategic tank.

Down for a year to really reap a draft reward.

 

[Gaston]

Agree.

We need a strategic tank.

Down for a year to really reap a draft reward.

Can't fathom how people argue against this.
At this stage of the year each recruiter would have a top 10 list of kids.
Simply evaluate, can these kids fill current holes in the list, what do we need to do to acquire.

It is not a loser mentality.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Can't fathom how people argue against this.
At this stage of the year each recruiter would have a top 10 list of kids.
Simply evaluate, can these kids fill current holes in the list, what do we need to do to acquire.

It is not a loser mentality.

I don't think we even need to tank...we just are not up to the level required currently.

I would love to go into the draft with a nice pick

 

[Bugs1977]

Anyone who thinks the draft is the key to premierships must spend a fortune on lottery tickets.

No the draft is not the key to premierships but you can most definitely add core pieces through it if you finish low enough and nail your draft selection/s. These core pieces which would be your 200+ gamers are penciled in to be in your best 22 for the next premiership. The other thing to remember is that these young guys are on cheap contracts for 4-5 years before they get their big payday. Who's to say we don't snag the next Jordan DeGoey, Marcus Bontempelli or Sam Walsh. Having those budding stars will make it highly attractive to any free agents on offer too.

 

[Aramis]

"Bottoming out" means finishing near the bottom. How many years isn't implied in the term.

I interpret "bottoming out" to mean clear out all old blokes, accept we wont be competitive or make finals and batten down the hatches for a few years to get as many high draft picks as possible.

For the record, I disagree with that approach.

What I do agree with is that if we get decent picks in the first round (5-12 range) we need to use it. Aaron Naughton (Pick 9 2017 would look bloody good in the brown and gold right about now). Bulldogs drafting 2017 is something to replicate, St Kilda 2017 is something to avoid.

 

[VandoHawk]

I think we’re expecting 2019 to be a down year. I think it’s important to remain competitive simply to appeal to free agents and players. At the same time I think it’s important to acknowledge that there are glaring gaps in our list that need to be fixed. But I actually see a lot of upside PROVIDED we nail this trade period. O’Meara & Worpel are having their ups and downs but developing as players. Our backline is filled with younger talent. Scully & Wingard are learning the system.

I think the steps to improve in 2020 are:

1. Utilise the draft: This will likely be our first top 10 selection in a while. We should utilise it to bring in some new talented blood. Maginness (second round) and Pepper (rookie) are both good prospects available to us. I think that we should also utilise the midseason draft this year to select an impressive overager and get them acquainted with the system.

2. Operation get Cogs: Perhaps the most vital plan. Geelong were a middle of the road side, but the acquisition of Dangerfield was a large reason they remained competitive (followed by exceptional drafting). With Mitchell to return, adding two top 10 midfielders suddenly turns a weakness into a strength. Worpel & O’Meara will also be better players thanks to this year. To do this we must remain competitive so we should stop this tanking nonsense.

3. Cheaply acquire other needs: Guys like Sam Day/Jon Patton/Will Brodie are not world beaters, but these types of players are important structurally while also having upside. Minimal cost for maximum gain especially with looming retirements.

Ultimately it’s a mixture of both bringing in youth & utilising trade/free agency that will help us remain competitive. But we do need to nail all three aspects or we enter no mans land

 

[Bugs1977]

I don't think we even need to tank...we just are not up to the level required currently.

I would love to go into the draft with a nice pick

Agreed. With Tom presumably missing the season we are like a nice car missing its engine. With the engine we are an unbelievable unit that can go toe to toe with the best but without it we are just a nice looking shell that isn't going anywhere. Finishing anywhere in the bottom 5 this season as sucky as it is could be the silver lining to a shitty season.

 

[Aramis]

A lot of people in this thread seem to believe Cogs to Hawthorn is a fait accompli

People need to stop counting their chickens...

 

[WWSD]

A lot of people in this thread seem to believe Cogs to Hawthorn is a fait accompli

People need to stop counting their chickens...

Rabbit!

 

[seysearles]

Anyone who thinks the draft is the key to premierships must spend a fortune on lottery tickets.

I would say that without hesitation that the secret sauce is a balance between nailing the draft and trading strategically to fill holes. Almost every flag in recent memory follows that formula including our own. We have experimented with a different approach to regenerating the list since 2009 taking only 2 first rounders in that period (both very good players incidentally Smith 2010 and Burton 2015) and to date that tactic seems to have failed us. I can understand employing it between 2010-15 when we were in contention and trading on a needs basis but with the benefit of hindsight I think that post '15 it would have been prudent to return to the draft. If that meant dropping down the ladder a little then so be it. It feels that this may have set back the next tilt by a few seasons.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

A lot of people in this thread seem to believe Cogs to Hawthorn is a fait accompli

People need to stop counting their chickens...

Even more reason to ensure we get a nice pick

 

[WWSD]

Even more reason to ensure we get a nice pick

With pick 6 in the 2019 draft Hawthorn select a key forward.