Hawthorn’s 2019 Trade/FA - Targets/Incoming players discussion only

[MrPremiership]

Any trade news? Or is this the thread about Lewis and Lynch?

 

[threesixpio]

I don't give a **** what those 2 wear in there off time as long as they both wear the hawks guernesy for 3 hours every week together from next year.

Their shared emo look might be what brings Cogs to Hawthorn

I’m all for their emo stylings.

PS: That’s like totally how I dress when posting on Bigfooty

 

[threesixpio]

Yeah, I wasn't having a go at Jaeger or Gogs per se; they were at fashion week, after all.

I guess there's some sort of line in my head between those who tend to conform to norms (which is pretty much all of us), and those who 'slavishly' (ny original term) follow the latest fad.

EDIT: Yes, I even had a mullet in the late 80s

Fashion Moderator

 

[Wandering Hawk]

New draft strategy - Fire Sale - swap any pick above 40 for multiple picks worse than pick 40.

2012 draft
pick 28 - O'Brien
pick 66 - Brand

2013 draft
pick 24 - Hartung
pick 38 - Garlett
pick 56 - Sicily
pick 71- Will Langford

2014 draft
pick 31 - Howe
pick 49 - Miles
pick 50 - Pittonet

2015 draft
pick 19 - Burton
pick 22 - Lovell
pick 44 - Hardwick

2016 draft
pick 74 - Morrison
pick 76 - Lewis

2017 draft
pick 45 - Worpel
pick 67 - Moore
pick 71- Ross

2018 draft
pick 52 - Kosi
pick 63 - Walker

We do excellently with getting unexpected value from picks in the 40s or worse.

Given our amazing track record, I'd rather 6 punts in round 3 to a round 1 and round 2 pick each year for the next two years. We'd love the depth.

since 2012 draft:

picks above 40: (6)
19 Burton, 22 Lovell, 24 Hartung, 28 TOB
31 Howe, 38 Garlett

points of picks = 948, 845, 785, 677, 606, 465
=4326pts

2 on fringes of squad, 1 success - traded for value)

picks at 40 or worse: (13)
44 Hardwick, 45 Worpel, 49 Miles, 50 Pittonet
52 Kosi, 56 Sicily, 63 Walker, 66 Brand, 67 Moore
71 Ross, 71 Langford, 74 Morrison, 76 Lewis

points of picks = 362, 347, 287, 273, 246, 194, 112, 80, 69, 29, 29, 0, 0
= 2028 pts

3 core A grade players, 4 getting games, multiple developing/depth - phenomenonal strike rate.

Currently we've done far far better from our picks at 40 or worse. Trade out our top picks to stop us getting tempted by bad projects. We need more depth atm.

Burton, Howe, TOB for 4326 draft points.
(also some value derived but many lost development games put into Hartung)

vs

Worpel, Sicily, Hardwick, Brand, Lewis, Moore, Morrison, Miles, Pittonet, Kosi, Walker, Ross, Langford
for 2028 draft points.

At present values you could swap all those taken above pick forty for twice the incredible crop at draft picks worse than 40. We're about to delist about 7 players - barring a great trade opportunity, swap our top two picks for six third round picks and go to town.

 

[offtherails9]

He and/or Dimma, post securing a Dimma replacement. There is some hope CJ may develop into Imps back half role.

Hey mate what do you mean by this? Do you think we need a Dimma replacement? As in moving him up the ground? I've thought about that a bit but at the same time he's probably the best and most reliable back pocket in the league. Reckon he could do mid time or full time small forward?

CJ seems more like a Gibson rather than more purely outside like Impey (mind you, a lot of you guys have seen alot more of him than me).


We used to be the benchmark, but now I feel list wise it's the Pies. Guns everywhere, 22 of them. Their midfield bats deeper than any I've seen. We need to find some depth. 2013/4 it was everywhere but it was ravaged as you'd expect. One thing that surprised me was the guns in the Tigers VFL team still after their injuries. Weller, Rioli and a lot more running around whereas we had a lot of young guys and the big Rough.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Hey mate what do you mean by this? Do you think we need a Dimma replacement? As in moving him up the ground? I've thought about that a bit but at the same time he's probably the best and most reliable back pocket in the league. Reckon he could do mid time or full time small forward?

CJ seems more like a Gibson rather than more purely outside like Impey (mind you, a lot of you guys have seen alot more of him than me).


We used to be the benchmark, but now I feel list wise it's the Pies. Guns everywhere, 22 of them. Their midfield bats deeper than any I've seen. We need to find some depth. 2013/4 it was everywhere but it was ravaged as you'd expect. One thing that surprised me was the guns in the Tigers VFL team still after their injuries. Weller, Rioli and a lot more running around whereas we had a lot of young guys and the big Rough.

Pretty sure he means Dimma could become a top quality small forward as he was a forward in his junior days, but the move would only happen if we find a reliable back pocket.

 

[OnceKicked50]

This place needs a massive dose of perspective. Lewis will be better than Lynch? * me. This is some serious one eyed s**t I bloody hate about our board.

A fit Tom Lynch is a top three forward in the comp. I'm not sure why so many underrate the bloke. I was gutted we missed on him as I think he would have instantly changed our fortunes.

Now, this isn't a knock on Lewis, but *, slow down people. He has shown some really promising signs, but it's staggering people think that's enough to claim he will be a 60 goal a year type forward. Aaron Naughton is that rare talent you mention along with Lynch.

 

[Brishawk]

This place needs a massive dose of perspective. Lewis will be better than Lynch? **** me. This is some serious one eyed **** I bloody hate about our board.

A fit Tom Lynch is a top three forward in the comp. I'm not sure why so many underrate the bloke. I was gutted we missed on him as I think he would have instantly changed our fortunes.

Now, this isn't a knock on Lewis, but ****, slow down people. He has shown some really promising signs, but it's staggering people think that's enough to claim he will be a 60 goal a year type forward. Aaron Naughton is that rare talent you mention along with Lynch.

I don’t think we will ever see the best of lynch sadly. I’d still want him at hawthorn but I suspect his knee is stuffed.

 

[OnceKicked50]

I don’t think we will ever see the best of lynch sadly. I’d still want him at hawthorn but I suspect his knee is stuffed.

Best 'again'. He kicked 66 goals and was AA for the bloody suns! Fair effort.

As for his knee, it's nine games in, christ, you remember Burgoyne's first season back playing? He is were you'd expect him to be, and credit to the bloke for still contributing as he works into it.

 

[Brant]

Tough day at the Negativity Factory hey OnceKicked50 ?

 

[OnceKicked50]

Tough day at the Negativity Factory hey OnceKicked50 ?

Haha no mate. I don't see being realistic as a negative.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

To be fair to Brant, I believe he was taking the piss a little*.


* I hope.

 

[Topiary]

To be fair to Brant, I believe he was taking the piss a little*.


* I hope.

Not sure about that Abasi.
BUT. Onckicked has to be respected for a very reasonable view that ML is FAR from being compared with a fit TL.
The kid is showing something, hopefully he will be a very respected role player within the next two years. Elite or the next level is light years away at this moment.

 

[Topiary]

Pretty sure he means Dimma could become a top quality small forward as he was a forward in his junior days, but the move would only happen if we find a reliable back pocket.

Correct. Just another piece to the puzzle. Important to remember, Dimma moving to a small fwd role is a realistic
Option, but not locked in until an alternative is found you would expect. Or it might not happen.
As is Imps, his energy and skill forward is an equally exciting prospect. Standing side by side with his great mate Chad could only be stimulating for both and genuine forward Xfactor we will need to compete at the top level.
CJ ..... yes please. More exciting Xfactor . Clarko in his usual measured way wants him right before he plays but some of my cynical mates who are good judges are actually coming around “there is more to the Sizzle”. Go CJ. Could be one of the most important debuts in the List “renovation” when it happens.

 

[Topiary]

New draft strategy - Fire Sale - swap any pick above 40 for multiple picks worse than pick 40.

2012 draft
pick 28 - O'Brien
pick 66 - Brand

2013 draft
pick 24 - Hartung
pick 38 - Garlett
pick 56 - Sicily
pick 71- Will Langford

2014 draft
pick 31 - Howe
pick 49 - Miles
pick 50 - Pittonet

2015 draft
pick 19 - Burton
pick 22 - Lovell
pick 44 - Hardwick

2016 draft
pick 74 - Morrison
pick 76 - Lewis

2017 draft
pick 45 - Worpel
pick 67 - Moore
pick 71- Ross

2018 draft
pick 52 - Kosi
pick 63 - Walker

We do excellently with getting unexpected value from picks in the 40s or worse.

Given our amazing track record, I'd rather 6 punts in round 3 to a round 1 and round 2 pick each year for the next two years. We'd love the depth.

since 2012 draft:

picks above 40: (6)
19 Burton, 22 Lovell, 24 Hartung, 28 TOB
31 Howe, 38 Garlett

points of picks = 948, 845, 785, 677, 606, 465
=4326pts

2 on fringes of squad, 1 success - traded for value)

picks at 40 or worse: (13)
44 Hardwick, 45 Worpel, 49 Miles, 50 Pittonet
52 Kosi, 56 Sicily, 63 Walker, 66 Brand, 67 Moore
71 Ross, 71 Langford, 74 Morrison, 76 Lewis

points of picks = 362, 347, 287, 273, 246, 194, 112, 80, 69, 29, 29, 0, 0
= 2028 pts

3 core A grade players, 4 getting games, multiple developing/depth - phenomenonal strike rate.

Currently we've done far far better from our picks at 40 or worse. Trade out our top picks to stop us getting tempted by bad projects. We need more depth atm.

Burton, Howe, TOB for 4326 draft points.
(also some value derived but many lost development games put into Hartung)

vs

Worpel, Sicily, Hardwick, Brand, Lewis, Moore, Morrison, Miles, Pittonet, Kosi, Walker, Ross, Langford
for 2028 draft points.

At present values you could swap all those taken above pick forty for twice the incredible crop at draft picks worse than 40. We're about to delist about 7 players - barring a great trade opportunity, swap our top two picks for six third round picks and go to town.

Thank you. Great analysis.

Say we end up where we are for this year and garner the corresponding Draft pick. Should we trade the 2020 first rounder as well, how many points do we accumulate for this year’s first round Draft pick ???? Enough to get us to Pick 2 ????

 

[MasterSamurai]

Please I hope no one is stupid enough to bring up the Lewis vs lynch comparisons on any other board!!

 

[bumsonseats]

Correct. Just another piece to the puzzle. Important to remember, Dimma moving to a small fwd role is a realistic
Option, but not locked in until an alternative is found you would expect. Or it might not happen.
As is Imps, his energy and skill forward is an equally exciting prospect. Standing side by side with his great mate Chad could only be stimulating for both and genuine forward Xfactor we will need to compete at the top level.
CJ ..... yes please. More exciting Xfactor . Clarko in his usual measured way wants him right before he plays but some of my cynical mates who are good judges are actually coming around “there is more to the Sizzle”. Go CJ. Could be one of the most important debuts in the List “renovation” when it happens.

Tops......couple of points

1. Do you ever see Dimma becoming a semi-regular part of our midfield rotations
2. I am loving the reports on CJs development. I saw him as more of a small forward prospect when he arrived at the club. I know he is playing back at the moment, but is that just to develop the defensive side of his game or is he destined to play in the back half.

Cheers

 

[Brishawk]

Tops......couple of points

1. Do you ever see Dimma becoming a semi-regular part of our midfield rotations
2. I am loving the reports on CJs development. I saw him as more of a small forward prospect when he arrived at the club. I know he is playing back at the moment, but is that just to develop the defensive side of his game or is he destined to play in the back half.

Cheers

Speaking only for myself, I’d love dimma in the midfield. Has all the tools except maybe a tank. But I’m sure he could manage a part time midfield role.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Thank you. Great analysis.

Say we end up where we are for this year and garner the corresponding Draft pick. Should we trade the 2020 first rounder as well, how many points do we accumulate for this year’s first round Draft pick ???? Enough to get us to Pick 2 ????

I think we should:

1. trade 1st and 2nd round picks for established players - as we do
and
2. swap residual 1st and 2nd picks not used to trade for numerous picks in the third round and worse to get multiple cracks at value.

The problem with strategy 1 alone is that you regularly trade 2+ picks for 1 player and thus wind up short of depth on the list. Like now.

The problem with strategy 2 alone is that a list has a limited number of spots, so you usually don't have room for say 8 round 3+ picks per year.

Together these strategies work, imho. Trade for stars, then go wide and fill the list seeking 3rd round talent the next year. Perhaps also go wide for a few years, then moneyball - trade emerging talent for needed stars. We'll swap our Sicily2 and Worpel3 for Whitfield, and oh look he can kick it to our Ben Brown4. You could also just trade your round one for players every year, and then swap your second round for two third round picks every year. - I really like this approach.

Every four years you have to use your 1st round pick - I'm not sure what to do when you do this.
Do you trade up to make it as close to pick 1 as possible to land pretty safe talent for a needed key position? Do you consider it a crap shoot and trade it to be the lowest possible first round pick and cash out the remaining value? Are you allowed to trade it at all in that year?

I don't think currently that we should trade future picks except for known talent, just because I think there's declining yields as you get more 3rd round picks. Our club is great at finding the Sicily in the rough, and there's clearly every year several more 3rd rounders or later (who become good players) whom we could identify and take, but I spent time looking through the last six years and there's not hundreds, usually 3-6 really good players emerge for other teams, and we're not going to identify them all even with the picks. Better just a few extra picks, unless we actively have an actual long list for a given specifically deep draft where we feel there's players into the deep forties or a raft of project players available. A star player or two usually drops through, as in Worpel or Sicily, and there's a few good speculative picks, but I doubt more than six picks would ever be really decent players.

Trading this year's top two picks for six lower picks is pretty much saturating this imho. It's less about hitting all six and more about not stuffing up a lone high pick on a Lovell, and also not missing out if there's three or four great round three options we've identified - we can then add a few speculative project players or mass rookie upgrade with any leftover picks, and effectively roll spare picks into the rookie draft.

Lower draft pick players also tend to command a lesser salary for longer than a higher picked player, despite the same hit rate for us, and an abundance of non rookie project players will definitely improve our Box Hill Team. They're a far better option than trying to plug list gaps with Rookies and cooked 28yo delisted C graders.

 

[Topiary]

Speaking only for myself, I’d love dimma in the midfield. Has all the tools except maybe a tank. But I’m sure he could manage a part time midfield role.

All of our small forwards have a role to play in a midfield rotation.

I know this is total speculation, but Anderson is a bustling mid who kicks goals. I have watched him star at junior level with game breaking impact. I am also told the ever improving Finn Maguiness is a mid who kicks goals.

Chad and Imps would have time through the rotations. We know what Chad has done at Port as a rotation mid. Imps with his pace and grunt would be just as competent.
With the demise of Birch and looks like Stratton, another lock down HB or two will also be required.

Scrim is looking exciting, and hopefully CJ could partner him. CJ reallly is reading it well, his interceptions and spoiling getting better and better. Just needs to learn he does not have to do the spectacular at every contest and he has an opposition fwd to be responsible for. Remember he has just turned 19.

 

[Topiary]

Speaking only for myself, I’d love dimma in the midfield. Has all the tools except maybe a tank. But I’m sure he could manage a part time midfield role.

The tank will come, it is about making the change Conditioning wise. I understand he spent time this last preseason accordingly. We need more grunt around the ball and fwd. Dimma has this in spades. Another Dimma clone recruit would be the ideal model.
Also oozes leadership.

I am truly excited about the potential of Dimma fwd/mid. Not slow, nice hands, competent in the air and can kick goals. A physical, hard edge tackler.
Enough of a tank to make a competent rotation.

 

[halfback dasher]

Dimma ... Parker

 

[TallyHawk]

Dan Howe might have to reinvent himself as that dour defender. Taller than Stratts and has shown his ability to shut down midfield stars. Played off a back flank for Murray Bushrangers.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Topiary]

Dan Howe might have to reinvent himself as that dour defender. Taller than Stratts and has shown his ability to shut down midfield stars. Played off a back flank for Murray Bushrangers.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes a possibility. I had not considered. Like your thinking. Has shown the discipline and can play small/tall.

 

[Topiary]

Dimma ... Parker

Spot on. Great analogy.