Racing April Daily Thread - Racing > Rugbaleeg

[iluvparis]

Con Te Partiro maybe the only value there I’d say, and moreso at $15 currently on offer with the corporates. If the track’s not too wet, Miss Siska would be value at $19, but that’s a big if.

Not expecting the track to suit Miss S at all by this time of the day - I'll be looking to swoopers

 

[Slipps]

Now that the barrier draw is done for the QE can get money back if we dont race #chipsin for Danon at $3.90.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Now that the barrier draw is done for the QE can get money back if we dont race #chipsin for Danon at $3.90.

$4.20 with boost all over it like Maradona on coke
Some on our girl too Slippers at that price

 

[54Dogs]

Saturday horse racing betting close to the jump when there's plenty of money in the markets; if you put the bonus bet on a horse to win at say $12 then lay off on Betfair at $13 it returns $40 odd cash for your $50 bonus bet regardless of result. These days I mostly punt them though haha

Yep

Anything $10+ with a similar BF price to corp price will net you $40 if it loses and slightly more if it wins for a $50 BB.

 

[99 Problems]

Am I missing something with the quaddie cashout drama. People were offered a cash out after 3 legs for significantly more than what the value of the winning ticket would’ve been? How is that anything but a clear and obvious error?

They will have to pay any tickets that were winners (I’m guessing all given the fave winning the last) and offer a genuine cash out amount to any who took it that didn’t have the winner in the last leg. Anyone who thinks they’ll get paid in full is kidding themselves.

On Saturday, Now that it’s final field that $4 Danon Premium looks genuine overs. No idea what the weather/market will do with it so not putting whole stake down yet, but this things been going around in a whole different class to the rest of this field. If the price holds you’d even be able to save on a couple on the day if you wanted to play it that way.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah I would be putting 60-70% of the stake now - I think it will start 3.20 or less. Just holding back some because markets can do stupid things with FU imports (as evidenced by Addeyb in the Ranvet).

 

[Slipps]

$4.20 with boost all over it like Maradona on coke
Some on our girl too Slippers at that price

$4.22 with the Multiplier

 

[king rising]

Outstanding Zoustar colt, full brother to Sunlight sells for 1.1 mil fall of hammer at Easter.

 

[toxic]

Little tip for those who enjoy a punt
Warwick Farm tomorrow
Race 4
No 14
Gimme Shelter
Should be 30/1 or better

 

[TBellicious]

How is everyone approaching the Vinery as a form reference from an Oaks perspective?

The farcical tempo doesn’t seem like a strong lead up. I’ve got Shout The Bar (and Nudge to a lesser extent) as a massive lay but am unsure what to do with others like Probabeel.

How will the Oaks be run? If there is no tempo like the Vinery then STB comes right back into the race. But surely lightning doesn’t strike twice?

 

[AvantGardener]

How is everyone approaching the Vinery as a form reference from an Oaks perspective?

The farcical tempo doesn’t seem like a strong lead up. I’ve got Shout The Bar (and Nudge to a lesser extent) as a massive lay but am unsure what to do with others like Probabeel.

How will the Oaks be run? If there is no tempo like the Vinery then STB comes right back into the race. But surely lightning doesn’t strike twice?

I know Colette won easy and could have won by more, but the placegetters being 2x Maidens in Toffee Tongue and Quintessa hardly inspires me with confidence about that form.

Probabeel and Funstar clear top 2 3yo fillies up to the Mile, Funstar wasn't at her best at 2000m and Probabeel probably wasn't either but that is still the premier form for mine. Start before Shout the Bar 2nd to Asiago who has Positive Peace form (came out and won Gp2) and Asiago herself won a Gp3 last prep. Even Subpoenead form had won a BM70, shitloads better than horse that haven't won a Maiden.

Note: I backed Quick Thinker week before the Derby and jumped off. Not I've back Colette week before the Oaks and jumping off...

 

[AvantGardener]

Thank * WA have racing Good Friday

 

[Turnover]

Spotted a horse named danon premium running in Sydney Saturday. Come all the way from Japan. 4/1. Keep it quiet though.

 

[AvantGardener]

Spotted a horse named danon premium running in Sydney Saturday. Come all the way from Japan. 4/1. Keep it quiet though.

Where did you get 4/1? I can only find 3/1 at best?

 

[AvantGardener]

How good is backing pacers when they gallop out of the mobile beaten 100m then next start in a near identical field you don't back them and they win at $66?

 

[FallingLiefs]

How good is backing pacers when they gallop out of the mobile beaten 100m then next start in a near identical field you don't back them and they win at $66?

This is probably the pacing equivalent of backing Nature Strip at $31 in an everest to get rolled only to toy with the same field for the next 6 starts.

#stillcantfindhim

 

[Viva la Mattner]

What’s the consensus on Alizee this weekend back to mares grade 11’s overs or unders??

 

[Turnover]

Where did you get 4/1? I can only find 3/1 at best?

Sorry 4.0, 3/1. It’s free money anyway. Will be taking melody belle in the quinella / exacta aswell for big footy purposes.

 

[Gavin Excell]

What’s the consensus on Alizee this weekend back to mares grade 11’s overs or unders??

I wonder whether it's only a betting proposition early in its campaigns. Seems to fade from about its 3rd start

 

[Gavin Excell]

I know Colette won easy and could have won by more, but the placegetters being 2x Maidens in Toffee Tongue and Quintessa hardly inspires me with confidence about that form.

Probabeel and Funstar clear top 2 3yo fillies up to the Mile, Funstar wasn't at her best at 2000m and Probabeel probably wasn't either but that is still the premier form for mine. Start before Shout the Bar 2nd to Asiago who has Positive Peace form (came out and won Gp2) and Asiago herself won a Gp3 last prep. Even Subpoenead form had won a BM70, shitloads better than horse that haven't won a Maiden.

Note: I backed Quick Thinker week before the Derby and jumped off. Not I've back Colette week before the Oaks and jumping off...

I've noticed in Australian racing, that when 3yos get to the classic distances the form guide goes out the window

 

[Turnover]

I've noticed in Australian racing, that when 3yos get to the classic distances the form guide goes out the window

Reckon that is due to the afterthought race theory. Some horses are set for the distance races and it’s a matter of patience, some are set for the golden slipper and then 3-4 weeks later are battling it out for the champagne stakes. Same with Caulfield guineas then cp or derby.

 

[checkraiseulite]

saw mellors is in tomorrow at sandown.

good luck.

 

[iluvparis]

How is everyone approaching the Vinery as a form reference from an Oaks perspective?

The farcical tempo doesn’t seem like a strong lead up. I’ve got Shout The Bar (and Nudge to a lesser extent) as a massive lay but am unsure what to do with others like Probabeel.

How will the Oaks be run? If there is no tempo like the Vinery then STB comes right back into the race. But surely lightning doesn’t strike twice?

On reflection I think Probabeel's run was actually superb given how the track was playing on the day. If she stays (bred to) I am certain she will turn around the form against the winner.

I am always happy to be on the class runner in the Oaks and she is the only one here. Was on Collete on Saturday but she is more than well found coming through the second/third tier formlines.

 

[iluvparis]

What’s the consensus on Alizee this weekend back to mares grade 11’s overs or unders??

Overs if you forgive the last run which was close to a career worst.

Certainly a way better horse than Nettoyer who is single digits - I think she could have won a couple of Doncasters carrying 51.5 too!

 

[iluvparis]

I've noticed in Australian racing, that when 3yos get to the classic distances the form guide goes out the window

That seems totally false - maybe for the males but the faves have pretty dominant records in both Oaks - the classiest horse normally wins.