When will the Carlton FC Arrive?

[Chief]

Part 2 of this thread is here:

When will the Carlton FC Arrive? Part 2

PART 1 of this thread is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/when-will-the-carlton-fc-arrive.1259822/ ============= We're all thinking it. We're watching this story play out for the 4th time in the last 20 years and it's the same story every time. They have a great list of exciting...

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[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yeah it is absolutely in terms of core players. Cripps, McKay, Weitering, Walsh, Docherty... dunno if any of them are older than 25. It’s that group who will represent their next premiership window

Only really have Jones and Doc of any substance that need replacing in the next 5 years. We will lose very little if anything over the next few years and should have a lot of improvement. In saying that age is absolutely no excuse for poor performances anymore.

 

[HTPunter]

Please.

It wouldn’t have mattered who the coach was. Had drafted a disgracefully bad list that was doomed to fail.

The revisionist history with the Ratten era is absurd.

Yes but then even now people are saying "the media are hyping Carlton as arriving for the past 5 years", and I think, really, did they really? Definitely this year, maybe last year yes but there was no real hype about Carlton in 2018 or 2019.

Lots of revision to suit a narrative.

Carlton were historically bad in 2018. 2-20, 59%. The B&F top 10 that year included a 31 year old Marc Murphy, 29 year old Matthew Wright (a goal a game forward pocket, 9th best player for the year...), 31 year old Sam Rowe, 31 year old Dale Thomas, 34 year old Kade Simpson, and 29 year old Ed Curnow.
Lots of stopgaps there.

We're only 2 seasons out from that year. There is hype because they had sniffs of form last year, but really, it's unjustified and that's a lot to do with people forgetting just how shit house Carlton were a couple of years ago.

Put it this way - I don't expect North to be playing finals in 2023-24. These things take time.

 

[HTPunter]

The problem with Carlton is that yes they are undoubtably better than they used to be, but they had an average age this week of almost 26 years of age. They should be in their premiership window right now but they just aren't. In a few years time if they have not won a premiership they are going to have to go through another mini-rebuild and start over again.

I think this is a terrible take. They won 2 games in 2018. And now based on an average age they should be in premiership contention?

Murphy - 33, replace with Stocker/O'Brien/Silvagni - even with how bad Stocker and O'Brien are, there is no loss here
E.Curnow - 31, replace with M.Kennedy, loss here
Casboult - 31, replace with C.Curnow, gain here

Replace those 3, much younger side and still not in flag contention.

Cripps, Docherty, Saad, Newnes, Martin, Williams, Plowman, Gibbons are all in their prime, yes (25-29).

But Weitering, McKay, Walsh, Curnow, Marchbank, Setterfield, Fisher, SPS, Williamson and the bunch of "unsure if they'll make it" guys like Fogarty, Dow, O'Brien, Stocker, De Koning, Silvagni and Cuningham are not.

They are simply not the right set for premiership contention.

Richmond in their prime for example have Dusty, Grimes, Lambert, Vlastuin, Prestia, Short, Lynch, Broad, McIntosh, Caddy, Nankervis, Pickett and Aarts in that age group, and Cotchin and Astbury just out of it. About double...

 

[HTPunter]

Port would be the one club with a similar list profile to Carlton in flag contention - more 30+ and sub 23 guys in the best 22.

Howeve when your 30+ guys are Dixon, Boak, Jonas, Hartlett, Gray, and Motlop, it is a lot easier. Then add in Wines, DBJ, Lycett, Clurey, Aliir, Amon, and Fantasia in the prime years it is still quite a lot.

 

[WillHayward]

Can't recover until they rid themselves of Matheson and Pratt families.

So this may never happen.

 

[WillHayward]

It really is pretty bog average

Pendles = Cripps
Sidey > Walsh
Moore > Weitering
Adams > Williams
Crisp = Saad
DeGoey = McKay

Then we still have Grundy, Howe, Maynard who are AA quality....

Carlton are a BOG average team who are still suffering from woeful list management decisions under SOS.

Pendles miles ahead of Cripps.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

A few things stand out to me:

1. They desperately need another tall target in attack. McKay is going OK but they bomb it on his head every time and it's very predictable. Who's the second banana? Not sure Casboult is productive enough.

2. Do they have enough defenders who can actually defend? Weitering is excellent and Jones is more or less serviceable, although he's had a rocky start. But then it's guys like Plowman, Docherty and SPP, who are more about rebound than lockdown. Sides will back themselves to kick a winning score if they get enough entries.

3. Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

26

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

at #3 looks a costly error, overlooking the likes of Adam Cerra, Hunter Clark

11

Hunter Clark

Age

26

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.9

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

and Aaron Naughton

33

Aaron Naughton

Age

26

Ht

196cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

0.8

1star

G

0.5

4star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

.

 

[Rich01]

Can't recover until they rid themselves of Silvagni and Pratt families.

So this may never happen.

This. And Matheson.

 

[Fadge]

Fremantle may not be quite the easybeats the Carlton folk were hoping for next week...

 

[Sportsmad93]

Much similar to us really. Bad recruiting scouts, poor development coaches, and the media who grossly overhyped them this year because they got Saad and Williams. I know the media too well, because they use to do it with Essendon a lot, acting like they were a top 4 side when they weren't. Only now they're not because the media know they're in rebuild mode.

Paying overs for Williams is a high price to pay for a half-back flanker, and Saad doesn't offer anything other than foot speed. I doubt his kick to turnover ratio would be very good. They should of learnt from Essendon's mistake in 2018 when they picked up, Saad, Stringer, Smith, then Shiel. I can't see Carlton getting anywhere soon with the current crop they have, except for being stuck mid-table.

 

[Ron The Bear]

7th oldest team this year and marginally above the average age of the comp. They've played two significantly older teams so far, so too early to read anything into it. But losing at home to an under-strength Freo (13th oldest) would suggest teams that started later are going past them.

Yet to see this rebuild look like producing anything above average to this stage.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Fremantle may not be quite the easybeats the Carlton folk were hoping for next week...

If the Dockers see themselves as a top 8 side they put the Blues to the sword next weekend. Fremantle has a history of losing these sort of games but I’d love them to belt Carlton tbh.


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[kozi]

Their fans won’t want to hear it, however it must be said they overrate their list by a considerable margin. There isn’t a serious flag tilt coming out of this current crop of players. Success doesn’t come about simply because its been a long build.

 

[Masotiger]

Carlton arrived 50 years ago. Back then, in a twelve team VFL competition the wealthier clubs could recruit the best players from interstate leagues for the price of a clearance fee. Each club had its country and metropolitan zones it had exclusive access to. Carlton drew champions from the Bendigo area that no other club could touch. Carlton, Collingwood and Richmond in particular prospered from this arrangement (albeit Collingwood never won a flag), as they were the wealthier clubs and not afraid to open the purse strings in pursuit of success via interstate recruits. Essendon too was wealthy, however, preferred to keep whatever funds they had in the bank.

It wasn't until a group of passionate North Melbourne supporters put their balls on the line and borrowed funds to entice Barassi and players like Wade, Davis and Rantall through the short lived 10 year rule, that enabled that club to taste success. Clubs like Footscray, South Melbourne, Fitzroy were never in the picture.

Premise: Wealth equaled success.

Fast forward today. 18 team national competition. Equalisation. National draft. Salary cap (yes Carlton..). Trading. Free agency.

For over 20 years Carlton has not been able to understand that it is NOT an elite club. It is NOT entitled to be successful. It has to work within the parameters that exist today like every other team. There are no shortcuts. Clubs like now Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane are just as much in the picture as Carlton.

In 2007, Carlton thought getting Judd was the answer. Like a skanky whore he shopped himself around finally landing where the money was - Carlton. BUT, at what price. Picks 3, 20 and Kennedy!! Carlton did not need Judd then. They were not on the verge of a premiership. But this was the old Carlton mentality. Fortunately, the last remaining remnants of my clubs poor managers had their 11th hour bid to gazump Carlton rejected. Thank God!! With picks 2 and 19 we landed Cotchin and Rance.

Once again, looking for shortcuts, in 2013 Carlton thought Malthouse was going to be the messiah. Blindsided by the fact Malthouse a) wanted to break the VFL/AFL coaching record, b) wanted to shove one up Eddie and Collingwood, and c) loved the money. Having success at Carlton was a distant fourth.

Yes. Carlton won the Elimination final in 2013. So what? Since then the team they beat has won 3 premierships and is a powerhouse of the competition, Carlton have collect a couple of spoons.

The only way Carlton is likely to arrive again is if they ditch their mentality of "We're Carlton, the rest can Get F'd!!" and understand they have to build a club within the parameters that exist today. Not easy in an 18 team comp.

 

[JustaBattler]

Carlton has only this year got its own VFL team that it controls. Think about the cost of not having a one Club control over your whole list and the cumulative and compounding cost of the inability to control and plan the development of your younger players. This is why Carlton has never been able to develop young players as well as other teams. Just as importantly - the development of a culture of team play amongst younger players.

In reality, Carlton is now for the first time this century on an even level playing field with most other CLubs in the competition as far as that goes. Managed properly - and now that is in the control of the only person employed as a coach at Carlton with any genuine winning credentials - Luke Power

Luke Power

Age

45

Ht

180cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.0

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.6

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

3.9

5star

CL

1.9

4star

No current season stats available

D

16.6

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

.

The parlous state of the list when SOS took over is another fact that is conveniently omitted from most posters looking to put the boot in. Just getting to a level of not quite covered in every area as far as player depth goes- was an enormous feat. Salaries paid were slashed - so that Carlton is now in a position to actually afford to 'top up' with genuine improvements in areas of need.

It is only in 2021 that the basics of a professional AFL Club are in place and as pointed out by many - this platform is not going to challenge for a flag in 21 or 22 - however, the aim is to get to a level of sustainable competence that playing finals if not winning a flag is possible for an extended peiod.

Non-Carlton posters aren't expected to understand or know how poorly the Club was positioned in the past - I am actually surprised by the level of understanding from a few posters regarding the good factors that are in place for a better on-field performance looking forward.
Full Club rebuilds and resets aren't common in AFL - for good reason - they take a lot more than three years to complete all things going well and the in between years are very painful.

I'm even less surprised at the rolled over like puppies seeking a scratch on the tummy disillusioned Carlton posters on here. The types who want a cuddle - and feel entitled to a win - the only certainty is that every year the competition is getting closer and the difference between a W/L isn't much.

Carlton are every chance to be 0:6 starting Richmond/Port and Brisbane are all pretty tough asks and Collingwood /Freo and even Suns were always at best 50/50 games- especially with all the injuries and outs. One thing is for sure- Carlton starting 22 after the bye- will look nothing like the patchwork team on field at the moment. No excuses every team has injuries blah blah blah - but things aren't as dire or locked in as disastrous as many would like to portray.

 

[iluvparis]

Their board bangs on about Essendon and their lack of success. When in reality in the last 20 years they're both basically even. Carlton have more spoons, Essendon have one. That's the only big difference.

The difference is that most reasoned Carlton supporters know we have been garbage for 20 years while Essendon supporters keep drinking the kool aid.

The only time I thought we were a genuinely good side in 20 years is when we started 3-0 in 2012 having beaten the reigning premiers. As soon as we lost to Essendon in Rd 4 I knew we were the same olds.

 

[10571z]

The SOS delusion was probably the most blinded I’ve ever seen a supporter base (maybe besides the stand by hird saga)

salary dumps, gws rejects it was a laughable circus.

 

[Fadge]

The difference is that most reasoned Carlton supporters know we have been garbage for 20 years while Essendon supporters keep drinking the kool aid.

This is complete and utter bulldust.

90% of Carlton supporters I know, and 90% of the Carlton supporters on BigFooty, have spent 12 or 13 of the past 15 off-seasons talking up your teams chances for the approaching year, only to be mutes by the time May/June comes around...

 

[iluvparis]

This is complete and utter bulldust.

90% of Carlton supporters I know, and 90% of the Carlton supporters on BigFooty, have spent 12 or 13 of the past 15 off-seasons talking up your teams chances for the approaching year, only to be mutes by the time May/June comes around...

I said 'reasoned' - I am not surprised a Collingwood supporter mixes with the more unreasonable ones though

 

[Fadge]

I said 'reasoned' - I am not surprised a Collingwood supporter mixes with the more unreasonable ones though

Hmm. So only 10% of Carlton supporters are 'reasoned'?

 

[iluvparis]

Hmm. So only 10% of Carlton supporters are 'reasoned'?

Spoken with the true intelligence of a Collingwood supporter

 

[Pistol Night]

I said 'reasoned' - I am not surprised a Collingwood supporter mixes with the more unreasonable ones though

Nah Ive got mates that support Carlton and their spirit has been broken for a long time. I dont even give them any shit when we beat them anymore. Theyve suffered enough

 

[RAPPA]

Bolton had his detractors for being too defensively-focused. Teague has come on board and whilst the side has been more “attacking”, one of the more serious problems that has emanated under his tenure is the leaking of multiple consecutive goals and slow starts.
Two significant issues with the club that will continue to be present regardless of who is at the helm: poor player development and the assistant coaching lineup.
It beggars belief that they did not replace Neil Craig after he left, noting that Bolton was doing reasonably ok, all things considered, up to the time that Craig left. With two rookie coaches it would be wise to surround them with good experience. The Club has failed the head coach.
Separately, people have claimed there has been poor recruiting but the Club has been appalling with player development. How the hell you can have such a low strike rate with drafted players is astounding. I would bank on players like Dow thriving at clubs that have invested in proper player development.
Until the above two issues are looked at, the Club will be relying on established players from other clubs being brought it to boost on field performances, and the best that’ll do is probably lift the Club into 8th spot for a year, provided others don’t leave in the interim which remains a real risk.
Poor management.

 

[Sportsmad93]

The difference is that most reasoned Carlton supporters know we have been garbage for 20 years while Essendon supporters keep drinking the kool aid.

The only time I thought we were a genuinely good side in 20 years is when we started 3-0 in 2012 having beaten the reigning premiers. As soon as we lost to Essendon in Rd 4 I knew we were the same olds.

I know we have been garbage for 19 years. We were average in 2002, 2003, 2004, and only won finals because of experience.

 

[Daics35Marvel]

Nah Ive got mates that support Carlton and their spirit has been broken for a long time. I dont even give them any sh*t when we beat them anymore. Theyve suffered enough

This. I used to hate the Blues with a passion. I have lots of mates that are Blues fans and I loved to rub it in. Heck, I put up with a ton of abuse from them through the 90s. In the 2000s it was nice to be the one giving it back. By the 2010s, it started to get a bit tiresome, for them at least. But now I feel too bad to sledge them after we win. Not only do I not hate them anymore I actually want to see them get good again. It's been 40 years since the Blues and Pies were good at the same time. Hard to believe.