Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

we want brisbane to win right?

We need Blues to beat Lions today and Pies in round 23 and also for Lions to win their last 2 games and Sydney to beat Pies next week for that to happen.

 

[Toe Poke]

A more reliable estimation of what Sydney need to do against North Melbourne (in order to overtake Melbourne) is as follows:

Approximately a 52 points win. For example, Sydney 112 points, North Melbourne 60 points.

Sydney's new percentage would then be:

FOR: 1776 + 112 = 1888
AGAINST: 1404 + 60 = 1464
Percentage = 1888 / 1464 * 100 = 128.96%

better than Melbourne's precentage of 128.84%

Its eerily close, but at the time of writing, Sydney 111 versus North Melbourne 60. Just one point different from the hypothetical scenario I posed last night of Sydney 112 versus North Melbourne 60.

All that's needed now is Sydney to score a behind, and for that to be the final score of the game.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I guess it comes down to the semantics of the word "plausible".
I've conceded above that 140-point losses are highly unlikely / implausible (my precise wording was "weird").

But average 5-goal losses to Gold Coast and West Coast, along with average 5-goal wins by Melbourne and Sydney, while unlikely, is something that I would define as "plausible".

Regardless, this could all become academic as soon as next weekend, if Geelong beats Gold Coast, and Collingwood fails to beat Sydney by a mega massive margin.

West Coast beating Geelong in Geelong is not “plausible” sorry.

Gold Coast possibly could beat us but West Coast will be lucky to score.
There is literally no chance in hell they will beat us, let along alone beat us by 30 plus points.

I worry about most games trust me but not the Eagles game.
It will be the last round. They will have checked out after an awful year. Kennedy won’t even be playing.
It will be 100 points plus.

 

[Toe Poke]

West Coast beating Geelong in Geelong is not “plausible” sorry.

Gold Coast possibly could beat us but West Coast will be lucky to score.
There is literally no chance in hell they will beat us, let along alone beat us by 30 plus points.

I worry about most games trust me but not the Eagles game.
It will be the last round. They will have checked out after an awful year. Kennedy won’t even be playing.
It will be 100 points plus.

What if Geelong decides to rest a lot of players? I agree that losing to the Eagles at Kardinia Park is unlikely, in normal times. But the team selection for in the final round can often throw up some crazy outcomes.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

What if Geelong decides to rest a lot of players? I agree that losing to the Eagles at Kardinia Park is unlikely, in normal times. But the team selection for in the final round can often throw up some crazy outcomes.

They won’t do that.
Scott said he wants to keep the team stable.
They wont be resting 10 players.

Even if they rest some, west coast still aren’t a chance.
We had a heap out last and still hammered a team looking to play finals.

 

[The_Todd07]

What if Geelong decides to rest a lot of players? I agree that losing to the Eagles at Kardinia Park is unlikely, in normal times. But the team selection for in the final round can often throw up some crazy outcomes.

We won't go down the Freo resting 13 players route but if we're were inclined to do so it would only be after securing the win this week, rending the WC game a complete dead rubber

 

[you pick one]

I've got Freo. Reckon they win the next two and the Pies knock off Sydney.

If so will we rest Hawkins again?

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

If so will we rest Hawkins again?

Who did we bring in...was it Josh Walker?

This time we can just bring in Walkers equivalent:

The big Savaloy

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

We won't go down the Freo resting 13 players route but if we're were inclined to do so it would only be after securing the win this week, rending the WC game a complete dead rubber

Ross Lyon is to blame for the post-season bye being implemented after doing that.

Just another reason to dislike him..

 

[Commando]

Either way I’ll be spewing in the week leading up to the QF...

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

We will play Collingwood week 1

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Ross Lyon is to blame for the post-season bye being implemented after doing that.

Just another reason to dislike him..

Pre finals bye sucks.

 

[fpm84]

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Pretty much how I’ve got it but I think Demons and Swans will play at the G.

 

[fpm84]

It’s on

 

[you pick one]

Who did we bring in...was it Josh Walker?

This time we can just bring in Walkers equivalent:

The big Savaloy

Yeah I'll go with Josh.

 

[year of the cat]

BigFooty running ads for a Nigel Farage event. Disappointing.

 

[JackFlash]

The only scenario we should be interested in is where do we play week 1 of the finals and aginst who? Swans, Brisbane or Fremantle at the MCG? We get no advantage if we cop Pies or Dees in week 1.

 

[Overhang]

The only scenario we should be interested in is where do we play week 1 of the finals and aginst who? Swans, Brisbane or Fremantle at the MCG? We get no advantage if we cop Pies or Dees in week 1.

Agreed the 3 interstate teams in top 4 is in our best interest as it means win week 1 and we would most likely be playing an interstate team every final to win the flag which is the dream scenario. To make this happen
Brisbane need to beat Saints at Marvel and Melb at the Gabba
Pies need to lose to Sydney in Sydney and Carlton
Freo need to beat WC and GWS (in Canberra)
Swans need to beat Pies (in Sydney) and might be able to lose to Saints at Marvel if they can keep % ahead of Melbs.

The most difficult result there is Carlton beating Pies, 1 thing that would help this game is if Melb beat Carlton round 22, Dogs beat GWS (Marvel) and Hawks which means Carlton are playing the Pies for a spot in the 8. In saying that if Pies drop that Swans game then Carlton are really playing them to beat them and play them week 1 of finals which would be quite appealing to the Blues.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Pre finals bye sucks.

Yep - after the West Coast game it's going to seem like an eternity until the QF.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

The big domino is Pies vs Sydney this week...what do we reckon?

 

[Reppie]

BigFooty running ads for a Nigel Farage event. Disappointing.

Ads what are they?

 

[catstragic]

BigFooty running ads for a Nigel Farage event. Disappointing.

BF doesn't parse ad content- thats done by google usually. They just have a "space" that third party injects an ad into.

 

[year of the cat]

BF doesn't parse ad content- thats done by google usually. They just have a "space" that third party injects an ad into.

Have no editorial control over that at all?

 

[barmy44]

We won't go down the Freo resting 13 players route but if we're were inclined to do so it would only be after securing the win this week, rending the WC game a complete dead rubber

Ross Lyon is to blame for the post-season bye being implemented after doing that.

Just another reason to dislike him..

It's pretty daft that resting 13 of your best 22 to get ready for finals (or for any reason) is frowned upon or looked at badly...

Surely lists are the size they are to be used in any way the club and coaches see best. It's kind of a quirk of AFL where using your full list is seen as slightly dishonest, not taking it seriously, exploiting a loophole, whatever.

It shouldn't be an issue, really. You have 44 (I think it's still 44, anyway) players, and if you want to use a bunch from the lower reaches of your list pre-finals - isn't that what they're there for?

Routine in other competitions around the world to rotate your squad to maximise the potential / season.

Not saying either of you are necessarily arguing against doing so, but just noticed these comments and thought I'd add my piece.