Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches

[Toe Poke]

As at 10.36pm on Sat 6 August, with some games from round 21 completed:

Geelong 16 wins, 1 game a a lot of percentage ahead of second-placed Collingwood.

Best case scenario:
Geelong finishes first

Worst case scenario if a lot of weird things happen:
If a lot of weird things happen, Geelong could finish 4th, but that would require Collingwood to make up a lot of percentage.

Specifically:

Geelong lose to Gold Coast by 140 points and lose to WC by 140 points
Finish with 16 wins and a much lower percentage

Collingwood lose to Sydney by 1 point and beat Carlton by 140 points
Finish with 16 wins and an improved percentage

Melbourne beat Carlton and Brisbane
Finish with 16 wins

Sydney beat North Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda
Finish with 16 wins

Due to the Sydney vs Collingwood match in round 22, it's highly unlikely that both Sydney and Collingwood will overtake Geelong on the ladder.
On a related note, due to the Brisbane vs Melbourne match in round 23, it is only possible for one of Brisbane or Melbourne to overtake Geelong on the ladder. To make the analysis easier, I have assumed a Melbourne win, since they have the higher percentage of the two teams at the time of writing.


Worst case scenario if a lot of weird things DO NOT happen:

A more plausible worst case scenario is that Geelong would drop to 3rd.

That would require results such as the following:

Geelong lose to Gold Coast and West Coast
Finish with 16 wins

Collingwood lose to Sydney and beat Carlton
Finish with 16 wins, but finish in 4th, because their percentage is too low to overtake Geelong

Melbourne beat Carlton and Brisbane
Finish with 16 wins, and ahead of Geelong if they can make up the percentage difference

Sydney beat North Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda
Finish with 16 wins, and ahead of Geelong if they can make up the percentage difference

What kind of percentage improvement do Melbourne and Sydney need?

Unlike the 3 * 140 point margins discussed above, it is more plausible for Melbourne and Sydney to overtake Geelong on percentage, in the event that Geelong lose both of its matches.

Current standings:

Geelong FOR 1896 Against 1383
Points differential = 513

Melbourne FOR 1742 AGAINST 1352
Points differential = 390

Sydney FOR 1776 AGAINST 1404
Points differential = 372

For Melbourne to overtake Geelong, it needs to approximately make up a points differential of 123.

This equals an average margin improvement of about 62 points per round, or 31 points per match.
eg. Geelong lose to Gold Coast by 31, Geelong lose to West Coast by 31, Melbourne beat Carlton by 31, Melbourne beat Brisbane by 31.

For Sydney to overtake Geelong, it needs to approximately make up a points differential of 141.

Sydney have a match to play in round 21 against North Melbourne on Sunday, and this is its best chance to make up some of that percetnage.

Geelong has 2 remaining matches.
Sydney has 3 remaining matches: (North Melbourne, Collingwood, St Kilda).

If Sydney can beat North Melbourne by at least 18 points, then its points differential will drop to 123 or less. Then it needs an improvement of the same magnitude as Melbourne.

Edited to add: the "18 points" estimated above assumes that points differential is a near-perfect approximation for percentage, which it is not.
A more reliable estimation of what Sydney need to do against North Melbourne (in order to overtake Melbourne) is as follows:

Approximately a 52 points win. For example, Sydney 112 points, North Melbourne 60 points.

Sydney's new percentage would then be:

FOR: 1776 + 112 = 1888
AGAINST: 1404 + 60 = 1464
Percentage = 1888 / 1464 * 100 = 128.96%

better than Melbourne's precentage of 128.84%

******************************************************************************

But what if Geelong wins one game?

If Geelong wins only one of its two remaining matches, then only Collingwood can overtake it. But as mentioned, this would require some massive margins. Almost as massive as Massive Merv from Moorabbin.

 

[calder_daddy]

As at 10.36pm on Sat 6 August, with some games from round 21 completed:

Geelong 16 wins, 1 game a a lot of percentage ahead of second-placed Collingwood.

Best case scenario:
Geelong finishes first

Worst case scenario if a lot of weird things happen:
If a lot of weird things happen, Geelong could finish 4th, but that would require Collingwood to make up a lot of percentage.

Specifically:

Geelong lose to Gold Coast by 140 points and lose to WC by 140 points
Finish with 16 wins and a much lower percentage

Collingwood lose to Sydney by 1 point and beat Carlton by 140 points
Finish with 16 wins and an improved percentage

Melbourne beat Carlton and Brisbane
Finish with 16 wins

Sydney beat North Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda
Finish with 16 wins

Due to the Sydney vs Collingwood match in round 22, it's highly unlikely that both Sydney and Collingwood will overtake Geelong on the ladder.
On a related note, due to the Brisbane vs Melbourne match in round 23, it is only possible for one of Brisbane or Melbourne to overtake Geelong on the ladder. To make the analysis easier, I have assumed a Melbourne win, since they have the higher percentage of the two teams at the time of writing.


Worst case scenario if a lot of weird things DO NOT happen:

A more plausible worst case scenario is that Geelong would drop to 3rd.

That would require results such as the following:

Geelong lose to Gold Coast and West Coast
Finish with 16 wins

Collingwood lose to Sydney and beat Carlton
Finish with 16 wins, but finish in 4th, because their percentage is too low to overtake Geelong

Melbourne beat Carlton and Brisbane
Finish with 16 wins, and ahead of Geelong if they can make up the percentage difference

Sydney beat North Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda
Finish with 16 wins, and ahead of Geelong if they can make up the percentage difference

What kind of percentage improvement do Melbourne and Sydney need?

Unlike the 3 * 140 point margins discussed above, it is more plausible for Melbourne and Sydney to overtake Geelong on percentage, in the event that Geelong lose both of its matches.

Current standings:

Geelong FOR 1896 Against 1383
Points differential = 513

Melbourne FOR 1742 AGAINST 1352
Points differential = 390

Sydney FOR 1776 AGAINST 1404
Points differential = 372

For Melbourne to overtake Geelong, it needs to approximately make up a points differential of 123.

This equals an average margin improvement of about 62 points per round, or 31 points per match.
eg. Geelong lose to Gold Coast by 31, Geelong lose to West Coast by 31, Melbourne beat Carlton by 31, Melbourne beat Brisbane by 31.

For Sydney to overtake Geelong, it needs to approximately make up a points differential of 141.

Sydney have a match to play in round 21 against North Melbourne on Sunday, and this is its best chance to make up some of that percetnage.

Geelong has 2 remaining matches.
Sydney has 3 remaining matches: (North Melbourne, Collingwood, St Kilda).

If Sydney can beat North Melbourne by at least 18 points, then its points differential will drop to 123 or less. Then it needs an improvement of the same magnitude as Melbourne.

******************************************************************************

But what if Geelong wins one game?

If Geelong wins only one of its two remaining matches, then only Collingwood can overtake it. But as mentioned, this would require some massive margins. Almost as massive as Massive Merv from Moorabbin.

I gave this a like for all the hard work put into this

 

[goyoucatters]

I get there are stacks of scenarios around how the top four will ultimately shake down. But I don't think it's really that plausible at all that we don't finish top two from here.

 

[cats_09]

 

[Toe Poke]

I get there are stacks of scenarios around how the top four will ultimately shake down. But I don't think it's really that plausible at all that we don't finish top two from here.

I guess it comes down to the semantics of the word "plausible".
I've conceded above that 140-point losses are highly unlikely / implausible (my precise wording was "weird").

But average 5-goal losses to Gold Coast and West Coast, along with average 5-goal wins by Melbourne and Sydney, while unlikely, is something that I would define as "plausible".

Regardless, this could all become academic as soon as next weekend, if Geelong beats Gold Coast, and Collingwood fails to beat Sydney by a mega massive margin.

 

[goyoucatters]

I guess it comes down to the semantics of the word "plausible".
I've conceded above that 140-point losses are highly unlikely / implausible (my precise wording was "weird").

But average 5-goal losses to Gold Coast and West Coast, along with average 5-goal wins by Melbourne and Sydney, while unlikely, is something that I would define as "plausible".

Regardless, this could all become academic as soon as next weekend, if Geelong beats Gold Coast, and Collingwood fails to beat Sydney by a mega massive margin.

North is as likely to make the finals this year as we are to lose at home by five goals to the Weagles in round 23.

Just won't happen.

 

[Toe Poke]

North is as likely to make the finals this year as we are to lose at home by five goals to the Weagles in round 23.

Just won't happen.

While I know you are being facetious with regards to North Melbourne making the finals, there is a clear difference regarding something impossible like that, and the unlikely but possible scenario of Geelong being overtaken by both Melbourne and Sydney.

Also, as I stated in the previous post, the 5-goal margin is only the average margin.
For example, Geelong could lose by 1 point to Gold Coast, lose by 1 point to West Coast, but if Melbourne and Sydney were to have approximately average 60 point wins, they could overtake Geelong on the ladder. Unlikely - yes. Impossible - absolutely not.

 

[goyoucatters]

While I know you are being facetious with regards to North Melbourne making the finals, there is a clear difference regarding something impossible like that, and the unlikely but possible scenario of Geelong being overtaken by both Melbourne and Sydney.

Also, as I stated in the previous post, the 5-goal margin is only the average margin.
For example, Geelong could lose by 1 point to Gold Coast, lose by 1 point to West Coast, but if Melbourne and Sydney were to have approximately average 60 point wins, they could overtake Geelong on the ladder. Unlikely - yes. Impossible - absolutely not.

I absolutely accept it's not impossible. But if you put together the objective probability of those six results each occurring (with none of them being all that likely at all), the cumulative likelihood is extremely low.

Even if you ran with the idea that those results were 50% likely in each individual game (an insanely high figure, but let's go with it), the probability of all six occurring becomes 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.0156. A little more than 1.5%, at most.

And if you just make the percentage chance of the Weagles beating the Cats at home more realistic (0.25, say), your probability drops well under 1%.

Impossible? Absolutely not.

Any meaningful chance of actually happening? Absolutely not.

 

[JohnZ]

Even if you ran with the idea that those results were 50% likely in each individual game (an insanely high figure, but let's go with it), the probability of all six occurring becomes 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.0156. A little more than 1.5%, at most.

Good experiment to try at home. Flip a coin, and don't stop until you get 6 heads or 6 tails in a row.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Reckon we almost certainly finish top 2 but i want top spot and for bris or freo or coll to finish 4th...dont want to get melb or syd in a QF

If lions win their 2 home games but lose to stk and melb beat carl but not bris then
Assuming freo and sydney win all their games (which is likely) and coll beat carl but not syd.

We would finish top (if we go at least 1/2) and get freo in a G QF. Or if brisbane win all 3 then we get coll in a QF. Either i like.

 

[you pick one]

As at 10.36pm on Sat 6 August, with some games from round 21 completed:

Geelong 16 wins, 1 game a a lot of percentage ahead of second-placed Collingwood.

Best case scenario:
Geelong finishes first

Worst case scenario if a lot of weird things happen:
If a lot of weird things happen, Geelong could finish 4th, but that would require Collingwood to make up a lot of percentage.

Specifically:

Geelong lose to Gold Coast by 140 points and lose to WC by 140 points
Finish with 16 wins and a much lower percentage

Collingwood lose to Sydney by 1 point and beat Carlton by 140 points
Finish with 16 wins and an improved percentage

Melbourne beat Carlton and Brisbane
Finish with 16 wins

Sydney beat North Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda
Finish with 16 wins

Due to the Sydney vs Collingwood match in round 22, it's highly unlikely that both Sydney and Collingwood will overtake Geelong on the ladder.
On a related note, due to the Brisbane vs Melbourne match in round 23, it is only possible for one of Brisbane or Melbourne to overtake Geelong on the ladder. To make the analysis easier, I have assumed a Melbourne win, since they have the higher percentage of the two teams at the time of writing.


Worst case scenario if a lot of weird things DO NOT happen:

A more plausible worst case scenario is that Geelong would drop to 3rd.

That would require results such as the following:

Geelong lose to Gold Coast and West Coast
Finish with 16 wins

Collingwood lose to Sydney and beat Carlton
Finish with 16 wins, but finish in 4th, because their percentage is too low to overtake Geelong

Melbourne beat Carlton and Brisbane
Finish with 16 wins, and ahead of Geelong if they can make up the percentage difference

Sydney beat North Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda
Finish with 16 wins, and ahead of Geelong if they can make up the percentage difference

What kind of percentage improvement do Melbourne and Sydney need?

Unlike the 3 * 140 point margins discussed above, it is more plausible for Melbourne and Sydney to overtake Geelong on percentage, in the event that Geelong lose both of its matches.

Current standings:

Geelong FOR 1896 Against 1383
Points differential = 513

Melbourne FOR 1742 AGAINST 1352
Points differential = 390

Sydney FOR 1776 AGAINST 1404
Points differential = 372

For Melbourne to overtake Geelong, it needs to approximately make up a points differential of 123.

This equals an average margin improvement of about 62 points per round, or 31 points per match.
eg. Geelong lose to Gold Coast by 31, Geelong lose to West Coast by 31, Melbourne beat Carlton by 31, Melbourne beat Brisbane by 31.

For Sydney to overtake Geelong, it needs to approximately make up a points differential of 141.

Sydney have a match to play in round 21 against North Melbourne on Sunday, and this is its best chance to make up some of that percetnage.

Geelong has 2 remaining matches.
Sydney has 3 remaining matches: (North Melbourne, Collingwood, St Kilda).

If Sydney can beat North Melbourne by at least 18 points, then its points differential will drop to 123 or less. Then it needs an improvement of the same magnitude as Melbourne.

Edited to add: the "18 points" estimated above assumes that points differential is a near-perfect approximation for percentage, which it is not.
A more reliable estimation of what Sydney need to do against North Melbourne (in order to overtake Melbourne) is as follows:

Approximately a 52 points win. For example, Sydney 112 points, North Melbourne 60 points.

Sydney's new percentage would then be:

FOR: 1776 + 112 = 1888
AGAINST: 1404 + 60 = 1464
Percentage = 1888 / 1464 * 100 = 128.96%

better than Melbourne's precentage of 128.84%

******************************************************************************

But what if Geelong wins one game?

If Geelong wins only one of its two remaining matches, then only Collingwood can overtake it. But as mentioned, this would require some massive margins. Almost as massive as Massive Merv from Moorabbin.

My head hurts.But well done I think

 

[Kobe Gryant]

What's everyone's realistic preference for week 1?

Would absolutely love Brisbane at the 'G, and even though we lost to them Freo would be ideal as well. It would be the first time since 2013 that our 'home' qualifying final would actually feel like a home game. Ideally on a Saturday as well, to allow for the Geelong crowd to be maximized.

Sydney would still be a home game but they do look dangerous, far more threatening than the aforementioned sides. I'd still back us but I'd be less confident.

Collingwood and Melbourne are the one's I personally don't want. The way we're playing atm I'd back us against anybody but I'm basing all this on what we'd want most, and I reckon most would agree we'd prefer to deal with these mobs later if possible.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

We're basically Winx odds to take out the minor premiership.

Cats v Pies in a QF is my tip..

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We're basically Winx odds to take out the minor premiership.

Cats v Pies in a QF is my tip..

I've got Freo. Reckon they win the next two and the Pies knock off Sydney.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

I've got Freo. Reckon they win the next two and the Pies knock off Sydney.

I personally can't see it, but fingers crossed you're right.

I'd love that

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

We're basically Winx odds to take out the minor premiership.

Cats v Pies in a QF is my tip..

Just checked Sportsbet, we literally are Winx odds.

$1.01.

Pies $41

 

[year of the cat]

Reckon we'll play Freo in the first final. I'd take that.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What's everyone's realistic preference for week 1?

Would absolutely love Brisbane at the 'G, and even though we lost to them Freo would be ideal as well. It would be the first time since 2013 that our 'home' qualifying final would actually feel like a home game. Ideally on a Saturday as well, to allow for the Geelong crowd to be maximized.

Sydney would still be a home game but they do look dangerous, far more threatening than the aforementioned sides. I'd still back us but I'd be less confident.

Collingwood and Melbourne are the one's I personally don't want. The way we're playing atm I'd back us against anybody but I'm basing all this on what we'd want most, and I reckon most would agree we'd prefer to deal with these mobs later if possible.

First preference is freo at the G as they dont play there a lot and are inexperienced they are a year too early. Then id like to get collingwood as despite the huge crowd they will bring i think they are very beatable. Wouldnt mind brisbane at the G as while they are potent they are very inconsistent on the road. Dont want sydney who seem to travel well or melbourne-beware the sleeping behemoth

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I personally can't see it, but fingers crossed you're right.

I'd love that

Freo should win their next 2. Just depends on who wins out of bris vs melb and syd vs coll as to who the top 4 is.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Freo should win their next 2. Just depends on who wins out of bris vs melb and syd vs coll as to who the top 4 is.

Yep.

 

[Chinacats]

Reckon we almost certainly finish top 2 but i want top spot and for bris or freo or coll to finish 4th...dont want to get melb or syd in a QF

If lions win their 2 home games but lose to stk and melb beat carl but not bris then
Assuming freo and sydney win all their games (which is likely) and coll beat carl but not syd.

We would finish top (if we go at least 1/2) and get freo in a G QF. Or if brisbane win all 3 then we get coll in a QF. Either i like.

I don’t want to play a speedy extreme pressure type of team in the QF… so I don’t want pies actually in the QF. Agree prefer Brisbane or Fremantle don’t want Dees or swans . Let’s see…

 

[GeelongFTW]

we want brisbane to win right?

 

[Romeoh1]

Geelong
Swans
Pies
Dees
but it’s impossible to predict still. Too many options -it’s great.
Don’t care who we play week 1- we are winning that game.

 

[bulletproof]

I think we can be bold enough to put Geelong losing at home to the Eagles in the implausible scenario list.

I am now annoyed with myself for getting into a deep funk and ruining my Easter Monday evening when we lost to the Hawks…

 

[The_Todd07]

I just want to receive some sort of reward for finishing on top and not have to play an undeserving team at their home ground.