Autopsy Cats lose to Pies by 22 points

[Romeoh1]

It’s literally not possible to play like that for 25 weeks.

They came out with classic pies ‘scores to settle’ look about them.They were good last year but despite the closeness of the games, we were better than them and the best team of the year won the flag in 2022. Good contest last night and we looked like getting away from them a couple of times but had a bit of a weary premier look in the last.
They have recruited very well- a bit of grunt with Mitchell and addressed deficiencies in their forward line. Their overlapping along the wing is very effective, fun to watch, hard to counter. And their players have really bought in to it. And yet, it’s also demanding and there is a long way to go. Let’s see how it goes.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Very interesting stats…. I think one of our winning strategies last year was to play our midfield in the high 60s vs other teams 80s - which meant more rotation off the bench. So I think that is a plan. Difference is I think we had Selwood for many of those games plus Blitz I reckon was higher than 61% in CB last year (assume that was reaction to defensive injuries this time).

Other thing your numbers highlight is bad game by Guthrie (relative to his normal output). Him playing 97% at CB with a low value doesn’t help. Also highlights in my view that we need to get Bruhn more in the middle of off the ground with Atkins and less Parf and Guth. Maybe more Holmes but then we might have a “wing problem”

Be interesting to track this over next few weeks


(By the way how can you have an attendance rate above 100?)

I vote we start calling Guthrie Sampson

 

[CHAWKTS]

Listening to CS press conference I took a few things away…

1. Sav is not just a back up in his mind. He has always loved Sav but now thinks he has found his spot
2. Certainly no panic. “Rust”, ”injuries” etc…also noted that some guys were off who deserve to be persisted with
3. Therefore no wholesale change.
4. Typical CS (and Cats) on injuries…expect all (but Stewart) to play next week…but I have learned to just ignore whatever he says on this topic!
5. Bruhn, Ollie and Bowes will get lots of opportunities

I think well balanced response (much easier as premiers!)…

As always it now depends on next week…smash Carlton and no one cares about last night. Go 0 and 2 and it will start to be interesting

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

They came out with classic pies ‘scores to settle’ look about them.They were good last year but despite the closeness of the games, we were better than them and the best team of the year won the flag in 2022. Good contest last night and we looked like getting away from them a couple of times but had a bit of a weary premier look in the last.
They have recruited very well- a bit of grunt with Mitchell and addressed deficiencies in their forward line. Their overlapping along the wing is very effective, fun to watch, hard to counter. And their players have really bought in to it. And yet, it’s also demanding and there is a long way to go. Let’s see how it goes.

We were easily the best team last year, if the Pies made the GF they weren't getting anywhere near us on the day, no one was.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The value is controlled for CB attendance and game time

To answer the question in brackets, you attend a higher proportion of centre bounces than your game time.

In Dangerfield's case, he attended 64% of all centre bounces in 62% game time.

So if you play most of the in a long low scoring stretch and then goals started getting scored while you're on the bench then it'll make you look like you weren't being utilised at centre bounces?

 

[CHAWKTS]

I vote we start calling Guthrie Sampson

It just looked weird! (Very neat but just not him)

By the way I think only a certain age of people (when sunday school was a thing) might understand your nickname!

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Listening to CS press conference I took a few things away…

1. Sav is not just a back up in his mind. He has always loved Sav but now thinks he has found his spot
2. Certainly no panic. “Rust”, ”injuries” etc…also noted that some guys were off who deserve to be persisted with
3. Therefore no wholesale change.
4. Typical CS (and Cats) on injuries…expect all (but Stewart) to play next week…but I have learned to just ignore whatever he says on this topic!
5. Bruhn, Ollie and Bowes will get lots of opportunities

I think well balanced response (much easier as premiers!)…

As always it now depends on next week…smash Carlton and no one cares about last night. Go 0 and 2 and it will start to be interesting

I wouldn’t even be really concerned about 0-2.
0-3 on the other hand….

 

[gogeelongcats]

What ever was plan A in the middle definitely didn't work. We pushed a lot more players through the middle of the ground, hard to say if it was a response to or the cause of.

Name	CB	CB attendance rate	Gametime	Value
Mitchell	26​	88​	76​	1.78​
De Goey	26​	79​	84​	1.46​
Crisp	24​	79​	78​	0.59​
Pendlebury	23​	72​	82​	1.91​
Adams	10​	36​	71​	2.00​

Name	CB	CB attendance rate	Gametime	Value
Dangerfield	25​	103​	62​	1.08​
Guthrie	28​	97​	74​	0.86​
Bruhn	16​	64​	64​	0.97​
Blicavs	21​	61​	89​	0.62​
Atkins	17​	54​	80​	1.79​
Parfitt	7​	44​	41​	0.44​
Holmes	8​	26​	80​	1.39​

Could you please tell me where you get these stats

 

[Joey JoJo Shabad]

Pretty scary how feral the pies supporters were acting when Ollie kicked his first goal, I can't ever remember a time when a Geelong player was traded to another team & cats supporters were up in arms & super abusive towards the player that was traded.

Love the potential Ollie has & will bring to the team.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

This is my biggest concern…I will just have to wait and hope he gets to 80% - certainly didn’t look like it yesterday after injury. If he doesn’t get to 80% then risk is he is a liability (and should rest for long season) - but we don’t have a like for like replacement to bring in. Although Blitz back can work if needed. Kolo back in would help sure it up a bit.

The problem is kolo is not good on absolutely big 200cm fwds with great reach (ie mckay) or really athletic ones (like curnow) as the latter does him for agility. He is very very good on 3rd talls (ie silvagni).
Blitz certainly has the reach and tank to go with curnow but then it forces us to play stanley partly fwd (as ceglar would have to ruck) and we lose the flexibility with blitz as mid/ruck. I think it partly depends on if carlton play 2 rucks id be comfortable with ceglar rucking against pittonet (very simialr players) but not tdk as tdk will blow him up around the ground-but if ceglar doesnt come in i dont think you can shift blitz back.

Hence structurally our best option is sdk at 80 % if he has enough movement and can play through pain. If theres a risk he will make it worse and he gets an LTI dont do it, but if there isnt he has to push through and play because we dont have the backup kpd options that we would like to.

 

[fpm84]

We were easily the best team last year, if the Pies made the GF they weren't getting anywhere near us on the day, no one was.

Not sure about that. Collingwood have matched up well on us for years, regardless of who is coaching them.

Really they shouldn’t have lost to us when they were five goals up at 3/4 time in round 3 last year, and the QF was genuinely a coin flip. Having watched that game many times, I think they were the better team for longer but we stood up better in the big moments ie Rohan and Holmes.

If they’d snuck over the line in the prelim I expect the GF would have played out similarly. We were the better team but it wouldn’t have been easy.

I actually feel comforted that we had a horror night last night in terms of injuries and already missing personnel yet it took them 3.5 quarters to put us away.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Pretty sure Scott said Kolo was OUT next week for all the people thinking he will come in and help our tall backs (Sav only by the looks of it) out.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I wouldn’t even be really concerned about 0-2.
0-3 on the other hand….

0-3 would be 1-3 after we play hawthorn but ideally we win one of our 1st 3. Our draw after the bye is quite kind with all the home games we just need to try and get to the bye above 50 % say 7-5 or 8-4 and we should hopefully have all the injured guys (except maybe henry) back by then.

 

[you pick one]

I thought the Pies were in our face all night with good pressure yes we had handy little leads throughout the first 3 quarter but we were never in total control of the way the game was being played,the Pies run and carry off half back with both overlap and free players in miles of space ahead of the ball all night was bloody frustrating we will need to structure up to manage that as it's their one wood take that away and there are not to many other avenues to goal for them.
Credit where credit is due they were better for longer tonight but they will know they got us at the right time.On to next week.

 

[Lana]

Could you please tell me where you get these stats

https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/fitzRoy/fitzRoy.pdf

 

[00VicWard001]

Comes across as a "can give it, can't take it kinda guy".


Defs has always been on the list of "s**t players that only play well against us" though. Having said that, he has definitely improved to become a capable player in the last 5 years or so.

All our players were just laughing at him.

He’s funny. Doesn’t realise that there is a massive discrepancy and disconnect between reality and what he thinks of himself.

 

[allrighty]

You guys were w***ers last night and the crowd wasn’t much better

Absolute flogs

I was amazed at the Pies guys just over the fence screaming like crazies at Henry when he took a kick there. It was really insane stuff and I do wonder (sometimes) what the rest of their lives must be like. Pretty shallow I suspect.

Whilst all teams have their share I guess, that mob is feral.

They must have loved the onfield stuff. clearly a deliberate strategy to put us off our game. Did not work until we ran out of gas.

 

[00VicWard001]

He’s got a baptism by fire last night he can only get better , he was marking well and as you said that spoil was highlight worthy

He wasn’t the issue last night in any case and with more senior defenders around him to guide him he will be fine imo

He stepped up as a key player because we were so undermanned.

 

[GeelongFTW]

0-3 would be 1-3 after we play hawthorn but ideally we win one of our 1st 3. Our draw after the bye is quite kind with all the home games we just need to try and get to the bye above 50 % say 7-5 or 8-4 and we should hopefully have all the injured guys (except maybe henry) back by then.

Yeah I dont think we need to come in with multiple games in front at the top of the ladder. We can make do with 3rd like Richmond or hawthorn have been able to pull off in their premiership defences.

 

[00VicWard001]

I think Blitz going into the backline makes our midfield much worse without substantial improvement to the defence.

Kolo should be right.

 

[tenderwarrior]

What ever was plan A in the middle definitely didn't work. We pushed a lot more players through the middle of the ground, hard to say if it was a response to or the cause of.

Name	CB	CB attendance rate	Gametime	Value
Mitchell	26​	88​	76​	1.78​
De Goey	26​	79​	84​	1.46​
Crisp	24​	79​	78​	0.59​
Pendlebury	23​	72​	82​	1.91​
Adams	10​	36​	71​	2.00​

Name	CB	CB attendance rate	Gametime	Value
Dangerfield	25​	103​	62​	1.08​
Guthrie	28​	97​	74​	0.86​
Bruhn	16​	64​	64​	0.97​
Blicavs	21​	61​	89​	0.62​
Atkins	17​	54​	80​	1.79​
Parfitt	7​	44​	41​	0.44​
Holmes	8​	26​	80​	1.39​

This is just the standard modus operandi for Geelong, who had something like 22 different players attend the centre bounce in 2022, with the next best being Collingwood with something like 14 players.. Geelong also had the fewest players attending high percentages of centre bounces, but I dont remember what those stats are..

 

[GeelongFTW]

This is just the standard modus operandi for Geelong, who had something like 22 different players attend the centre bounce in 2022, with the next best being Collingwood with something like 14 players.. Geelong also had the fewest players attending high percentages of centre bounces, but I dont remember what those stats are..

I reckon Scotty wouldn't want to pull out all the tactical spots just yet as well.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Kolo should be right.

Scott said in presser Kolo will miss next week.

 

[Romeoh1]

We were easily the best team last year, if the Pies made the GF they weren't getting anywhere near us on the day, no one was.

Agreed.

 

[Lana]

So if you play most of the in a long low scoring stretch and then goals started getting scored while you're on the bench then it'll make you look like you weren't being utilised at centre bounces?

Over the course of a full game, it is unlikely to skew a player that far away the other players.