Autopsy AFL 2025 Rd 10 - Suns v Hawks - Thurs May 15th 7:30pm AEST (TIO)

[Dewyyyyy]

I like the factual representation.

But why just quote upcoming interstate trips?

We’ve had 1 perth trip, 1 Adelaide trip, 2 seperate Melbourne trips and 1 extended Darwin trip so far.

Played 2 games on our true home ground.

Surely that counts for something.

Considering how good the Suns are at Darwin it’s not really a problem. The obvious thing would be the stress on players bodies from the heat however.

 

[Mr Meow]

Good old “get a hobby”

Maybe it’s your wording but if I’m calling something decent it’s average or minusculely above. Definitely a lot different then good, very good, great etc.

This is an interesting question tho tbh, I’d say he would be, he’s not as good as Amon, Massimo, Scrimshaw or Sicily (normally). He’s definitely in that next rung with Day, Ward, Mackenzie for example you could probably also add Moore and Watson. A lot of these players are different in the way they kick and how their kicks come. Mackenzie and Ward are good to compare for this because I feel like both are supremely talented kicks but Wards a little more as that surgical approach almost whereas Mackenzie likes to place it to someone on the lead in space.

That’s funny I’ll double it

No problemo.

It's not like I said he was below average. We've landed on the nuance between decent and very good. We're about 5 or 10% off saying the same thing, which is what has made the ad hom really bizarre.

If you think someone is egotistical, clueless, doesn't know what they're seeing etc based on that distinction - I'd hate to see what you're like with someone that has a polar opposite view. You'd probably call them the stupidest person to live, or something like that

As advice for next time, keeping the discussion to explaining your argument works more effectively than throwing in 12 emojis and 6 insults.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It depends what you mean by elite kick. Do you mean like Massimo, Gulden or Sicily? No he's not that type of kick.

Are we saying that Bont is not a elite kick? Or is there context to why he's numbers are not at the very top end, because Newk is ahead of Bont.

Newk ranks 6th KLS% ( Kicks Leading to Shots at Goal) amongst midfielders at 34%.

Of the 52 midfielders that average 300+ Metres Gained, their average KLS% is 25.6.

Midfielders 2025 300+ meters gained:

Meters Gained
Average: 394
Newcombe: 335 (40th)

Contested Possessions per game
Average: 9
Newcombe: 11.5 (16th)

Disposals per Turnover
Average: 5.7
Newcombe: 7.8 (4th)

Threat Rating
Average: 0.2
Newcombe: 5.6 (9th)

KLS%
Average: 25.6
Newcombe: 34 (6th)


So is he an elite kick?
Maybe not in style. But in terms of efficiency, scoreboard impact, and pressure context, he’s absolutely delivering at a top-tier level.


Daicos and Brayshaw for comparison

Meters Gained
Daicos: 443 (11th)
Brayshaw: 445 (9th)
Newcombe: 335 (40th)



Contested Possessions per game
Daicos: 11.7 (14th)
Brayshaw: 12 (9th)
Newcombe: 11.5 (16th)



Disposals per Turnover
Daicos: 6.4 (13th)
Brayshaw: 8 (3rd)
Newcombe: 7.8 (4th)



Threat Rating
Daicos: 2.2 (17th)
Brayshaw: 1.1 (22nd)
Newcombe: 5.6 (9th)



KLS%
Daicos: 30.9 (11th)
Brayshaw: 27.4 (21st)
Newcombe: 34 (6th)

I’d say the main thing would be consistency, as I said.

Consistency of:

Threat and retention.

That is what makes a player elite, do their kicks hit their target and get retained, and how damaging is it. How many of their overall kicks are (dangerous or retained).

Due to his role and also his style, he can definitely be a very good kick and his damage is high as is his retention, an issue comes within the parameters of how many times does he fluff a ball, or dump one. Which adds to the overall number.

Definitely not elite like some but he’s certainly up there as a very good kick.

I rate your data highly, that’s good work.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

These are really interesting stats
Where do you get access to these things?

What determines 'threat rating'?
Is the disposals per Turnover just incorporating kicks for both the disposals and the turnover component?

Threat rating would likely be about where the balls kicked, scoring from the kick etc

 

[Dewyyyyy]

No problemo.

It's not like I said he was below average. We've landed on the nuance between decent and very good. We're about 5 or 10% off saying the same thing, which is what has made the ad hom really bizarre.

If you think someone is egotistical, clueless, doesn't know what they're seeing etc based on that distinction - I'd hate to see what you're like with someone that has a polar opposite view. You'd probably call them the stupidest person to live, or something like that

As advice for next time, keeping the discussion to explaining your argument works more effectively than throwing in 12 emojis and 6 insults.

It’s bizarre that you’ve been arguing about it when you haven’t even understood what you’re arguing about.

And no, because someone who isn’t and actually listened might either learn something or teach something

Next time read and comprehend before arguing ? Like what are you on about.

 

[Mr Meow]

It’s bizarre that you’ve been arguing about it when you haven’t even understood what you’re arguing about.

And no, because someone who isn’t and actually listened might either learn something or teach something

Next time read and comprehend before arguing ? Like what are you on about.

Nope, but keep trying. After 400 more posts I'm confident you will get close to getting there.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Nope, but keep trying. After 400 more posts I'm confident you will get close to getting there.

I’m sure you’ll get there if you re read a post that’s not your own

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m sure you’ll get there if you re read a post that’s not your own

399 to go.

 

[extractasam]

Uh huh. You keep telling yourself that. The FACT is we've played 4 of 5 other top 6 teams to date and Hawthorn have played 1 (your loss to us on Thursday night). Seems pretty clear cut to me. Now we get to see what Hawthorn are really made of over the next month when they play more top 6 teams.


Sure, if you want to live in the past and pretend the 2025 versions of Carlton and Port Adelaide look anywhere near as dangerous as they looked last year. I prefer to live in the present and judge difficulty of opponents based on their current form. From what I've seen this year, teams like Adelaide and the Dogs look like far more difficult opponents than Carlton or Port Adelaide.

Do I have to requote myself in bold to get through your granite block of a brain or am I wasting my time

 

[GC2015]

Do I have to requote myself in bold to get through your granite block of a brain or am I wasting my time

What are you wanting from this exchange? For me to acknowledge that Hawthorn's first 10 rounds looked difficult back in November when the draw was released? Sure. I'll give you that.

It doesn't look difficult now and I'm basing my opinion on what I'm currently seeing, not perceptions back in November. The next four weeks look difficult for the Hawks and that's what I'm putting stock in when it comes to Hawthorn's true standing this year. If Hawthorn are still in the top 4 after playing multiple top 6 teams in a row then I'll know they're legit. Unproven at this stage IMO.

 

[Elixuh]

But they are playing the game, just playing it better and using a rule against the opposition. Never seen a bloke give a 50m penalty back because they didn’t think they deserved it.

If your only argument is that they’re better at exploiting rules against the opposition then you’ve already lost. That’s not playing the game. The rules are the bumper bars, the game is played inside the lane. They’re not playing the game.

It’s a pathetic blight on the game and Hawks fans should be ashamed to put on their wizard hats.

 

[RCAB]

If your only argument is that they’re better at exploiting rules against the opposition then you’ve already lost. That’s not playing the game. The rules are the bumper bars, the game is played inside the lane. They’re not playing the game.

It’s a pathetic blight on the game and Hawks fans should be ashamed to put on their wizard hats.

No

 

[extractasam]

If your only argument is that they’re better at exploiting rules against the opposition then you’ve already lost. That’s not playing the game. The rules are the bumper bars, the game is played inside the lane. They’re not playing the game.

It’s a pathetic blight on the game and Hawks fans should be ashamed to put on their wizard hats.

Come back and talk to us when you have a McClelland trophy man

 

[I got the outside word]

If your only argument is that they’re better at exploiting rules against the opposition then you’ve already lost. That’s not playing the game. The rules are the bumper bars, the game is played inside the lane. They’re not playing the game.

It’s a pathetic blight on the game and Hawks fans should be ashamed to put on their wizard hats.

The rules are apart of the game. The game cannot exist without the rules. To exploit the rules is to play the game. The game, the rules. There is no way you can spin it to make it as though they don’t play the game, you just don’t like it, which is fine. As professional athletes the opposition should learn how to counter it or suffer as a 170cm, 20 year old second year rocket runs circles and dominates all your minds. We don’t have anything to be ashamed of, Wiz will win games off his own boot, you will cry and neither Wiz nor Hawks fans will care. Stay sad about it.

 

[Elixuh]

The rules are apart of the game. The game cannot exist without the rules. To exploit the rules is to play the game. The game, the rules. There is no way you can spin it to make it as though they don’t play the game, you just don’t like it, which is fine. As professional athletes the opposition should learn how to counter it or suffer as a 170cm, 20 year old second year rocket runs circles and dominates all your minds. We don’t have anything to be ashamed of, Wiz will win games off his own boot, you will cry and neither Wiz nor Hawks fans will care. Stay sad about it.

If every player did what the wizard and ginnivan do then those frees would no longer be paid and the rules would be changed. It’s why self proclaimed master coach Sammy ‘Ken Hinkley preyed on Jack ginnivan’ Mitchell got up all misty eyed in front of the media and complained that frees weren’t being paid to ginnivan.

 

[I got the outside word]

If every player did what the wizard and ginnivan do then those frees would no longer be paid and the rules would be changed. It’s why self proclaimed master coach Sammy ‘Ken Hinkley preyed on Jack ginnivan’ Mitchell got up all misty eyed in front of the media and complained that frees weren’t being paid to ginnivan.

But not every player does it and sometimes they do get paid so get over it or get the rules changed to suit what upsets you. God forbid a coach goes into bat for his players and as for self proclaiming to be a master coach, I mean, confidence is half the battle, right? Although I can’t remember him proclaiming it. Stay sad.

 

[Elixuh]

But not every player does it

Yes yes this is the point. Progress is being made.

One of the most fascinating aspects of this site in recent memory has been the hawk fans mental gymnastics by many hawks fans. I remember a few posters clearly deriding ginnivan for the way he plays when at Collingwood. Those same posters now claim he is just going harder and lower at the ball.

Someone needs to study this phenomena so that we can understand it.

 

[I got the outside word]

Yes yes this is the point. Progress is being made.

One of the most fascinating aspects of this site in recent memory has been the hawk fans mental gymnastics by many hawks fans. I remember a few posters clearly deriding ginnivan for the way he plays when at Collingwood. Those same posters now claim he is just going harder and lower at the ball.

Someone needs to study this phenomena so that we can understand it.

It wasn’t the point at all. You suggested that they weren’t playing the game, but they are.

You’ve tried to shift the goal posts in every reply. Nick and Jack play the game, opposition need to adjust. If they don’t they will kick goals from high frees and they won’t give one thought to Elixuh the Brave when they do it.

 

[Elixuh]

It wasn’t the point at all. You suggested that they weren’t playing the game, but they are.

You’ve tried to shift the goal posts in every reply. Nick and Jack play the game, opposition need to adjust. If they don’t they will kick goals from high frees and they won’t give one thought to Elixuh the Brave when they do it.

Nah the game adjusted around ginnivan by no longer paying those frees which made self proclaimed master coach Sammy Mitchell sad

 

[I got the outside word]

Nah the game adjusted around ginnivan by no longer paying those frees which made self proclaimed master coach Sammy Mitchell sad

He got at least one, maybe two on Thursday.

Can you link me Sam Mitchell self proclaiming as a master coach? I’m pretty sure that came from the same people you are trying to mimic in the media.

 

[Elixuh]

He got at least one, maybe two on Thursday.

Can you link me Sam Mitchell self proclaiming as a master coach? I’m pretty sure that came from the same people you are trying to mimic in the media.

It’s public record

 

[I got the outside word]

It’s public record

Oh.

 

[SA HAWK]

What are you wanting from this exchange? For me to acknowledge that Hawthorn's first 10 rounds looked difficult back in November when the draw was released? Sure. I'll give you that.

It doesn't look difficult now and I'm basing my opinion on what I'm currently seeing, not perceptions back in November. The next four weeks look difficult for the Hawks and that's what I'm putting stock in when it comes to Hawthorn's true standing this year. If Hawthorn are still in the top 4 after playing multiple top 6 teams in a row then I'll know they're legit. Unproven at this stage IMO.

Last years premier didn't even finish top 4.

This time last year it was Sydney by how much.

The team that manages their squad best has a bit of luck with injury & peaks at the right time wins the flag.

 

[extractasam]

What are you wanting from this exchange? For me to acknowledge that Hawthorn's first 10 rounds looked difficult back in November when the draw was released? Sure. I'll give you that.

It doesn't look difficult now and I'm basing my opinion on what I'm currently seeing, not perceptions back in November. The next four weeks look difficult for the Hawks and that's what I'm putting stock in when it comes to Hawthorn's true standing this year. If Hawthorn are still in the top 4 after playing multiple top 6 teams in a row then I'll know they're legit. Unproven at this stage

You were carrying on about hawthorn getting a fixture free kick, when it just wasn’t the case when the fixture was curated.

I agree, and so are you guys. Beat as many top 4 teams as you want, nobody is going to give you a chance down in Melbourne if you can’t even get past Richmond here

 

[GC2015]

Last years premier didn't even finish top 4.

This time last year it was Sydney by how much.

The team that manages their squad best has a bit of luck with injury & peaks at the right time wins the flag.

Of course there's going to be ladder movement between now and September. However... Sydney, Geelong and Port Adelaide were all inside the top 4 at this time last year and they all went on to finish top 4 + play in the prelims. So there really wasn't as much movement at the top as you're seemingly suggesting. I'm specifically looking at the top end teams in the league this year and pointing out that Hawthorn hasn't played many of them yet.

You were carrying on about hawthorn getting a fixture free kick, when it just wasn’t the case when the fixture was curated.

Okay? Port Adelaide were a top 4 team and made a prelim last year. Does that mean Geelong deserve massive credit for beating them at Adelaide Oval today or should Port Adelaide be viewed as the team that's currently ranked 14th on the ladder? I'm leaning towards the latter, but if you want to keep thinking Hawthorn have had a hard draw to date because of last year's results then go ahead. I see it differently.

I agree, and so are you guys. Beat as many top 4 teams as you want, nobody is going to give you a chance down in Melbourne if you can’t even get past Richmond here

We've won 3 of our last 4 games in Melbourne, 2 of which were at the G, but I'll entertain your comment...

Even the best teams have slip ups from time to time e.g. Brisbane drew with North last week. Let's see how the Suns go against St Kilda at Marvel next week. Assuming the Saints beat West Coast tomorrow, they'll have a 5-5 win-loss record and will only be outside the top 8 on percentage. So that's a fairly solid team and an away win against the Saints would be a good one for us to pick up IMO - keeping in mind we've played 4 top 6 teams recently and can't play them again until later in the year. I'm sure there will be people who see it differently and won't be impressed by an away win over the Saints should we beat them next week, but I see value in securing that win and continuing to build our resume.