Autopsy Round 10 - West Coast v St Kilda

[BrutThough]

I mean if you think from the other perspective:

Train him as a back and if Doug & Cordy are both fit and Max is not, play him as a forward

Isn't that equally stupid?

The point is none of this was planned. It was all contingency plans. No one can predict injuries and unavailability

In that scenario, he'd at least spent the past two years training and playing as a fwd compared to it being a completely new role.

We should have been able to predict injury though. Howard has missed large portions of the past 2 seasons with injury, part of that time with hamstring issues so thats something we knew he was suspecible too. Him getting injured again shouldn't have been a shock. At times last year, we played undersized because Cordy's form was poor. There was question marks over them that we should have foreseen we might need another option at some stage and either train them up over preseason or add another option to the list.

 

[thekizzler]

He's goal kicking seemed a lot better this year, but i think he put 2 or 3 out on the full yesterday so that will skew the percentage

It actually won't skew his percentage as he didn't score.

Funnily enough, that's why he is so 'accurate' as he had heaps of shots that haven't scored from 40+ metres. Would love to know the stats.

 

[akaifu]

In that scenario, he'd at least spent the past two years training and playing as a fwd compared to it being a completely new role.

We should have been able to predict injury though. Howard has missed large portions of the past 2 seasons with injury, part of that time with hamstring issues so thats something we knew he was suspecible too. Him getting injured again shouldn't have been a shock. At times last year, we played undersized because Cordy's form was poor. There was question marks over them that we should have foreseen we might need another option at some stage and either train them up over preseason or add another option to the list.

We wouldn't have expected Cordy to cop a LTI on top of Doug's injuries tho

I bet if he was OOC we would have delisted him and got someone else

But he still had a year left on decent money so it wasn't doable

As I said, there is going to be a lot of turnover at the end of this season. Next year there will be no excuses but to contend especially if we land TDK Aleer etc.

 

[littlecreatures]

It actually won't skew his percentage as he didn't score.

Funnily enough, that's why he is so 'accurate' as he had heaps of shots that haven't scored from 40+ metres. Would love to know the stats.

Goal accuracy is calculated from Goals / total shots at goal. Mitchito’s going at 50% this year.

His best year was 2023 with 51% and he dropped to 41.7% last year.

The large majority of scoring forward are around the 50-60% mark, with 60-70% elite. For example, Higgins is at 73.7% which is behind only Fogarty (78.1%) in the top twenty goal scorers.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

I think we’d be bottom of the ladder over the last five or six games so it was really a shoot out for last spot and we lost.

 

[The Jack]

Yep

And so are Richmond and North. And they've both had multiple wins this season. The sky didn't fall in for their opposition.




OK.

How many teams havent had at least one game that's "totally unacceptable and a real concern"?

It's the nature of professional sport.

In 95 St Kilda were a basket case, and we kept Carlton to 3 goals for the game, winning by 56.

That Carlton team lost 2 games for the year, and won the flag by 10 goals.

Point is- one unacceptable performance means little. Everyone understands this.


AFL.com.au predictions
Damien Barrett - 15th
Gemma Bastiani - 16th
Riley Beveridge - 17th
15th
15th
15th
16th
16th
16th
16th

10 AFL.com.au journos- all of them predicted bottom 4.

Our Sportsbet +/- wins was 9.5. And part 2 here

Only Richmond, WC and North were under 9.5.

Essendon were also 9.5.

So according to the bookies, we were expected to be tied with Essendon for the last spot in the bottom 4.


We're on track for 9-11 wins - the same prediction I made very early in the season.

Roll out what ever stats and excuses you like. Gloss over it as much as you want. It was a putrid performance. And wasn’t our first one this year.

 

[Nutsngum]

You don't get to decide what's appropriate in a forum full of passionate supporters. Sometimes people are pissed and don't want to sit back in an armchair in their Armani loafers smoking a pipe and having a good old chinwag about the finer points of sports analysis. Sometimes... like... oh I don't know.... when you lose to shitty mcshitsville who haven't won a game you just want to scream F#ck this bullshit... especially when it's the same old can't-hit-the-side-of-a-barn drivel we've been dishing up for over a decade

And that's ok. It really is.

Should people be colour coding their posts if they dont want to be replied to or have their posts discussed on here or something? Disagreeing with someone venting isnt denying them their whinge.

 

[g_TRAIN]

You don't get to decide what's appropriate in a forum full of passionate supporters. Sometimes people are pissed and don't want to sit back in an armchair in their Armani loafers smoking a pipe and having a good old chinwag about the finer points of sports analysis. Sometimes... like... oh I don't know.... when you lose to shitty mcshitsville who haven't won a game you just want to scream F#ck this bullshit... especially when it's the same old can't-hit-the-side-of-a-barn drivel we've been dishing up for over a decade

And that's ok. It really is.

You're not wrong; I reckon it just boils down to personality differences, and I'm sure the frustration cuts both ways.

For those more analytical and less emotional, the standard footy-fan ranting can be pretty annoying. I love it when its coming from Carlton fans, but thats about it.

That's why I've steered clear of this place until today. Sometimes, all the relentless ranting gets under my skin even more than our team's actual performance does.

 

[EddieMurphy]

Kj

I’m as frustrated as anyone but I’m going to try some perspective.

1. WC were due a win at some stage.
2. The emotion.
3. Playing at home.
4. The umpiring.

That’s all working against us.

Now for everything that went against a few things we self inflicted.

Despite the misconception, our midfield actually matched it and arguably won.

So the reality is , it’s our disposal and ball movement more than anything. Whilst we have two elite half backs , I said this in pre season we potentially should have looked at a half back so one of Naz/Sincs could go on the ball. At this stage as we know , robbing Peter to pay Paul.

In addition, it doesn’t help when either or both are also turning the ball over.

The slowness of ball movement is putting so much pressure on the forwards.

Owens missing all his shots, turnovers going into 50. Just not good enough.

What I don’t understand is early days they were praising our hands in traffic, ball movement and kicking skills and now.

I think maybe we need to bring in another elite kicking half back , is it a shuffling of roles and bring in Arie, Hastie ? IDK.

Every other team bar Nth and Richmond would have won anyway. Even those two would be 50-50.

 

[EddieMurphy]

You're not wrong; I reckon it just boils down to personality differences, and I'm sure the frustration cuts both ways.

For those more analytical and less emotional, the standard footy-fan ranting can be pretty annoying. I love it when its coming from Carlton fans, but thats about it.

That's why I've steered clear of this place until today. Sometimes, all the relentless ranting gets under my skin even more than our team's actual performance does.

Plus there is sometimes a glossing over poor effort/skills etc in the name of avoiding being negative. Rationalisation it's called in psychology.

 

[Saints TV]

 

[tomjoad]

We wouldn't have expected Cordy to cop a LTI on top of Doug's injuries tho

I bet if he was OOC we would have delisted him and got someone else

But he still had a year left on decent money so it wasn't doable

As I said, there is going to be a lot of turnover at the end of this season. Next year there will be no excuses but to contend especially if we land TDK Aleer etc.

We'll find an excuse...and everyone will believe it.
AGAIN.

 

[AirWinmar]

I don't think the club would've expected all of King, Cordy and Doug to be out for most of the season

Then for Tauru to get suspended for a month

That's just unlucky

Didn't Doogs get injured in pre season? Once he did it seemed like nearly everyone on here was thinking Caminiti should have been training with the backs. It took half way through rounds 2 or 3 before we switched him back.

I'm a big fan of RTB, but I think the coaches got this one wrong

 

[Ads734]

Kj

Every other team bar Nth and Richmond would have won anyway. Even those two would be 50-50.

Maybe , maybe not…. Tbh I was just trying to take a contrarian view and see if I could justify it.

 

[Ads734]

Also re Gus. He made one very bad error.

So did Sincs
So did Naz
So did McRae
So does Doug when plays

Prior to that I thought he defended and intercepted well.

Let’s remember that

 

[SainterinSydney]

Also re Gus. He made one very bad error.

So did Sincs
So did Naz
So did McRae
So does Doug when plays

Prior to that I thought he defended and intercepted well.

Let’s remember that

I agree with this. He made one bad error, but overall was taking some good marks.

 

[True Believer]

Everyone is well within their rights to vent about the awful performance against the Eagles. It is the most frustrated and borderline angry I've been in a long time. We didn't look AFL standard at any stage of that match.

The most frustrating part for me is the fact that majority of our team, including key players like Sinclair etc, love to bomb the ball long without even looking for a short pass. We coughed the ball up against the worst team in football atm.

However, this match provided a great opportunity for us to realise that we have plenty of work to do to this list. Having literally zero key position players at either end will not win you games, same as having an incompetent midfield.

Will we play finals this year? No. And that's reflective of where we are at the moment. We are investing heavily into the youth as I am sure Ross realises that the senior group is taking us nowhere near premiership contention.

Many of the youngsters we have look like they have a good future at the level, but they are kids. Putting a dozen kids up against teams like the Lions, Dogs etc is always going to be a recipe for disaster... no matter how optimistic you are.

Importantly, we need to find a way to recruit players between that 24-28 range that will balance our list and allow us to have sustained success. Good players are hard to get, even more so when you are the Saints.

That's why it's going to be such a crucial offseason. Bringing in several players that improve our list - like Bergman, TDK (not crazy about) and Aleer - will make us better, but ultimately it is all about cost.

However, we still need to be competitive throughout the rest of this year to attract these players. Do we put the cue in the rack for a low pick, or do we play to win as many games as possible and back our recruiting team to nail our picks.

For me, we simply need to keep trying to be competitive and win games. Doing this will help the development of the core that will drive this club forward. Who knows when our young list will "bounce"... hopefully sooner than later.

I know we aren't the Hawks, but they were copping the "I don't see light at the end of the tunnel for this club" type talks when they decided to trust their youth. We just need to stick to the plan, even though many of us will question it short-term.

While I don't want to, I will still find a way to watch the game against the Suns this Sunday. That's because I am a gluten for punishment and my mood is tightly aligned with this stupid club hahah. Go Saints.

Good post! Its a shame I'm gluten intolerant!

 

[Saints4ever]

Also re Gus. He made one very bad error.

So did Sincs
So did Naz
So did McRae
So does Doug when plays

Prior to that I thought he defended and intercepted well.

Let’s remember that

Yep you only have to go back and read the game day thread and he’s getting praised more than once.

 

[Saintbloke]

Didn't Doogs get injured in pre season? Once he did it seemed like nearly everyone on here was thinking Caminiti should have been training with the backs. It took half way through rounds 2 or 3 before we switched him back.

I'm a big fan of RTB, but I think the coaches got this one wrong

I’m no fan of Lyon- whatever he might have had 15 or so years ago, he has no more

 

[g_TRAIN]

Plus there is sometimes a glossing over poor effort/skills etc in the name of avoiding being negative. Rationalisation it's called in psychology.

Negative opinions are just as valid as positive ones, but there’s a line. Spouting baseless negativity turns toxic fast, if you ask me.
To a degree, the same can be said about overly positive crap too.

 

[Kennedy84]

Also re Gus. He made one very bad error.

So did Sincs
So did Naz
So did McRae
So does Doug when plays

Prior to that I thought he defended and intercepted well.

Let’s remember that

Well said, no matter how stark it was, the downside is only 6 points. Kade Simpson never even got a disposal in his first three games.... probably wouldn't have minded a turnover

 

[AirWinmar]

Yep you only have to go back and read the game day thread and he’s getting praised more than once.

Had some really good intercepts and showed a bit. Panicked at times too as did all his other teammates.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

The on-ground leadership on Sunday was non-existant .... 22 blokes playing a game together like they had met each other for the first time .... no cohesion ..... no system .... no belief .... that's the disappointing bit

When they kicked the first 2 goals you could sense it was going to be a struggle as it gave them a shot of confidence whereas ours just wilted and then the mistakes crept in

Mental willingness / toughness is a huge part of the game ..... it will only click proper for this team when our senior leaders stand up & lead consistently with purpose & grit

 

[Teflon]

I agree with this. He made one bad error, but overall was taking some good marks.

3rd here
I missed his poor disposal but saw earlier he took some nice grabs
Looked a touch slow in awareness but that would come
Hope the kid is encouraged to go back keep working cause it wasn’t all doom and gloom

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Jesus

We wouldn't have expected Cordy to cop a LTI on top of Doug's injuries tho

I bet if he was OOC we would have delisted him and got someone else

But he still had a year left on decent money so it wasn't doable

As I said, there is going to be a lot of turnover at the end of this season. Next year there will be no excuses but to contend especially if we land TDK Aleer etc.

Crap midfield?