Preview R16: Changes vs. Richmond Tigers (after the bye)

[footy4ever]

I am hoping to go so we may as well pencil in the loss now - 4 games in the 4 years I have lived over here and am yet to see us win.....sorry team

I don't know why I laughed at this.

There's a first time for everything.

 

[Stephen2]

I am hoping to go so we may as well pencil in the loss now - 4 games in the 4 years I have lived over here and am yet to see us win.....sorry team

We got this! Go and enjoy the MCG behind the goals with the cheer squad is my go-to

 

[Southerntakeover]

We have a 26-18 win loss record against them, but all my memories are pretty negative.

Either wins that didnt matter or pretty devastating losses (2024,2017,2006).

Was it 2014 we played them at home in a defacto elimination final, and led late in the game only to give it up?

From memory the sealer was a dusty goal that involved some pretty free use of hands in the back.

 

[jenny61_99]

You picked the three that have stuck with me. We need to smash them and I'm anticipating after shaking them off we win this easily.

Famous last words.

Fingers crossed. Actually - I've got everything crossed - even the girls! I still have PTSD from 2017 so I'm hoping being there in person again and winning will exorcise that demon (or in this case, tiger!)!

 

[BRL121]

Fingers crossed. Actually - I've got everything crossed - even the girls! I still have PTSD from 2017 so I'm hoping being there in person again and winning will exorcise that demon (or in this case, tiger!)!

We're going to be playing the Richmond theme song on the bus to the ground.

 

[pjcrows]

Was it 2014 we played them at home in a defacto elimination final, and led late in the game only to give it up?

From memory the sealer was a dusty goal that involved some pretty free use of hands in the back.

A Sando Special.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Was it 2014 we played them at home in a defacto elimination final, and led late in the game only to give it up?

From memory the sealer was a dusty goal that involved some pretty free use of hands in the back.

Was that the Dustin Martin vs Ricky Henderson, one-out in the goal square option?

Was a bold coaching call

 

[Cromulant]

Was that the Dustin Martin vs Ricky Henderson, one-out in the goal square option?

Was a bold coaching call

We'd have finished 8th, and played Port at AO in an Elimination Final IIRC.

It would have been NVB kicking into the breeze in the first quarter.

 

[Southerntakeover]

We'd have finished 8th, and played Port at AO in an Elimination Final IIRC.

It would have been NVB kicking into the breeze in the first quarter.

We'd beaten them in the second showdown that year when they were top, snapping their run of form and creating the downward slide that led to them missing the top four.

An underrated showdown win. Fans miss the extent to which the Crows broke Hinkley in his best shot at it.

 

[Southerntakeover]

A Sando Special.

The score worm reads very similarly to some recent Nicks strategy.

Team is inept all day, bangs on four goals in a heart beat to take the lead in the fourth, doesn't score again and ultimately watches the lead go whizzing by.

 

[Cromulant]

We'd beaten them in the second showdown that year when they were top, snapping their run of form and creating the downward slide that led to them missing the top four.

An underrated showdown win. Fans miss the extent to which the Crows broke Hinkley in his best shot at it.

Vintage Thommo and Sauce Jacobs from memory, and Dangerfield of course.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

I haven’t felt this confident for an away match since the 2017 Grand Final .

We have been as good as anyone against the bottom nine teams but this is an absolute must win game. A loss could send us on a downward spiral out of the Eight. Hopefully it will look like the Sydney match.

 

[MRB37]

Was it 2014 we played them at home in a defacto elimination final, and led late in the game only to give it up?

From memory the sealer was a dusty goal that involved some pretty free use of hands in the back.

Yep, was very much like the Brisbane game. We were up by 9 I think with about 10 minutes left and we'd just bomb it out 50 for Richmond to send it back in. I think Richmond kicked a bunch of behinds in a row to put it under a goal, then kicked a pair of goals in the last few minutes to seal it.

 

[Golumless]

I think you're overrating Murray's contribution, and underrating what Buttsy has brought to the side in his absence.

I'm not. Butts is just a depth KPD who played like a depth KPD. The only thing his inclusion has brought to the side is we're not using Keane to defend against the opposition's best KPF, which admittedly, is a decently big thing. It's why I was big on getting Butts in when Muz went down, as Keane's profile is all about offensive output. However, that's not a point of difference between the two.

Defensively, there is a rather considerable step between the two, with Murray being considerably better when isolated (14.5% career loss rate, to 28% for Butts this year), makes more defensive actions (6.1 spoils/6.8 one percenters for Muz career, compared to 5.6 spoils/6.4 OP for Butts), wins more hard balls than Butts (2.2 to 1.1) and offers more on the ground than Butts (1.4 tackles/5.8 PA to 0.1 tackles/3.1 pressure acts).

We also don't get any genuine offensive output from either which means Butts has no point of difference to justify his selection over Murray. Heck, the only stat that looks good on the surface with Butts is kicking efficiency (~96%), but even then it seems like Butts is stat padding this as he has the 13th lowest xRetention rate and 3rd lowest retention rate this year indicating his kicking is just long down the line and to contests (Murray was like this last year, though had improved in the small amount of gametime he had this year to a league average xRet. and retention rate).

Butts has done his job in this period, but as said, it's a change that couldn't come quick enough.

Butts has been more than serviceable and improves each week.
Had a cracking last game from memory.

No. Just serviceable, though he had an excellent game on the weekend. However, there is no point retaining a serviceable depth player over a fit best 22 member.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Vintage Thommo and Sauce Jacobs from memory, and Dangerfield of course.

Brad Crouch kicking the sealer on the run towards the hill to a massive roar is one of my favourite hill moments

 

[Michaels]

Pardon the intrusion I come in peace.

Each week I do a live show with an opposition supporter to help preview the upcoming game and tonight I’ll be joined by Crowcast to discuss the game.

I want to give both sets of supporters the chance to ask questions, so if you have any questions for Crowcast or I for tonight’s show in relation to the game this week, feel free to leave a voicemail message via the link below.

Send a voice message to Tigercast

Home of the Tigercast, a fan based podcast made by the fans, for the fans!

www.speakpipe.com

 

[davos44]

Was it 2014 we played them at home in a defacto elimination final, and led late in the game only to give it up?

From memory the sealer was a dusty goal that involved some pretty free use of hands in the back.

Yeah, that was a frustrating night, behind all night and then fall away with 5 mins left.

Then we did the same thing against North the next week. Jack Ziebell going nuts on us

 

[FR0GGY]

Yeah, that was a frustrating night, behind all night and then fall away with 5 mins left.

Then we did the same thing against North the next week. Jack Ziebell going nuts on us

Was that the game roo used when hiring Walsh by getting him to go through it and say how he’d have handled it?

 

[CrowBloke]

Nicks: Let's refer to our pre-season best 23 chart!

That's flattering.
You think he can do, let alone keep, charts??

 

[Multiballz]

I sigh a lot reading the post you

I'm not. Butts is just a depth KPD who played like a depth KPD. The only thing his inclusion has brought to the side is we're not using Keane to defend against the opposition's best KPF, which admittedly, is a decently big thing. It's why I was big on getting Butts in when Muz went down, as Keane's profile is all about offensive output. However, that's not a point of difference between the two.

Defensively, there is a rather considerable step between the two, with Murray being considerably better when isolated (14.5% career loss rate, to 28% for Butts this year), makes more defensive actions (6.1 spoils/6.8 one percenters for Muz career, compared to 5.6 spoils/6.4 OP for Butts), wins more hard balls than Butts (2.2 to 1.1) and offers more on the ground than Butts (1.4 tackles/5.8 PA to 0.1 tackles/3.1 pressure acts).

We also don't get any genuine offensive output from either which means Butts has no point of difference to justify his selection over Murray. Heck, the only stat that looks good on the surface with Butts is kicking efficiency (~96%), but even then it seems like Butts is stat padding this as he has the 13th lowest xRetention rate and 3rd lowest retention rate this year indicating his kicking is just long down the line and to contests (Murray was like this last year, though had improved in the small amount of gametime he had this year to a league average xRet. and retention rate).

Butts has done his job in this period, but as said, it's a change that couldn't come quick enough.



No. Just serviceable, though he had an excellent game on the weekend. However, there is no point retaining a serviceable depth player over a fit best 22 member.

Harsh marker. Ive been a Muz fanboi since before it was popular. My biggest gripes with Butts have alway been his indecision with ball in hand, disposal and an inability to peel off on the rebound or offer anything other than pure lockdown playing deep. To my surprise hes shown massive improvement in all these areas since his return. Id say hes almost been the pick of the defenders in at least 2 of those games. Keeps it up and it will be hard to view it so much as either/or for Murray, but I understand that matters not until we show a bit more flexibiliy in selection. and stop wedding ourselves to structure.
Be nice if we rewarded form as well. Has Murray shown the form required to be considered a like for like replacement of an in form Butts yet? If not, why bother?

 

[Pugsley]

Harsh marker. Ive been a Muz fanboi since before it was popular. My biggest gripes with Butts have alway been his indecision with ball in hand, disposal and an inability to peel off on the rebound or offer anything other than pure lockdown playing deep. To my surprise hes shown massive improvement in all these areas since his return. Id say hes almost been the pick of the defenders in at least 2 of those games. Keeps it up and it will be hard to view it so much as either/or for Murray, but I understand that matters not until we show a bit more flexibiliy in selection. and stop wedding ourselves to structure.
Be nice if we rewarded form as well.

Being harsh and being a realist are two different things

 

[Multiballz]

Being harsh and being a realist are two different things

Unfourtunately, I wouldnt be surprised if what hes suggesting is quite close to the way our selectors also view things.

 

[Pugsley]

Unfourtunately, I wouldnt be surprised if what hes suggesting is quite close to the way our selectors also view things.

It is a sad reality.

 

[CrowBloke]

Thanks for the medical analysis Doctor Kane.

He played well in the SANFL nearly two weeks ago. If the medical experts give him the go ahead I am inclined to trust their diagnosis over yours.

With respect to your previous posting, I think the above is unnecessarily harsh. Sarcasm unwarranted.

Kane McGoodwin didn't make a "diagnosis", here:

Because we rushed him back last time & put him back months.

We need him right when it really matters.

Crazy risking him when he is underdone against a bottom team.

The above 3 sentences are fair and non-controversial.
Murray was rushed back, which is typical of Nicks' short-term obsession to pick the most experienced team each week without thinking or looking forward. Nicks often rushes experienced players back in when they are not fully recovered (Mrouch, Tex ...). Nicks' short-sightedness and stubbornness are big problems.

We do need Murray @100% when it matters, ie if we make Finals.

None of us here in BF know with any certainty if Murray is underdone or not, but if he is, OK, give him another game in the SANFL.
Richmond are not going to beat us this week because Murray is not playing; if they do, it'll be because the boys got complacent and didn't show up. If the Crows are switched on, we're looking at a 10+-goal win.

 

[Thommo#21]

Very quiet this week on team selection. Can't see much on socials from training either. Did we train today